Do people do their own projections or rely on website proj's?

[crazylegs]

I am wondering do people do their own projections ie: study the stats of players from previous years, among other things, to develop their own projections, or do most people here just rely on their favorite website for their projections? (I am talking for redraft leagues by the way). If people do their own projections what info have you found most useful/reliable?

[WashingtonD]

Based on the fact you are referencing re-draft leagues specifically I'm assuming you mean projections to create draft cheat sheets versus weekly projections for starting and setting your lineup?

 

Personally I refer to a few different websites cheat sheets that I respect (The Huddle being among them) and then adjust that based on my own observations about those players.

 

As far as developing detailed projections - I do something like that week to week for the players I draft and I rely on previous performance this season by player, defensive stats (especially useful is the points by position against the opposing defense), and the game line including the over under (which allows me to project out the points scored by each team, then make an assessment based on all the other numbers how I think those points will be allocated over the players involved)

 

WashD

[crazylegs]

Based on the fact you are referencing re-draft leagues specifically I'm assuming you mean projections to create draft cheat sheets versus weekly projections for starting and setting your lineup?

 

Personally I refer to a few different websites cheat sheets that I respect (The Huddle being among them) and then adjust that based on my own observations about those players.

 

As far as developing detailed projections - I do something like that week to week for the players I draft and I rely on previous performance this season by player, defensive stats (especially useful is the points by position against the opposing defense), and the game line including the over under (which allows me to project out the points scored by each team, then make an assessment based on all the other numbers how I think those points will be allocated over the players involved)

 

WashD

 

Yes I am definitely talking about creating a draft sheet for a redraft league. I have read about ways to create your own projections which seem very labor intensive, especially if The Huddle creates their projections using the same method I read about in Dorey's book "The Next Level". I am wondering, however, if possibly people have found creating their own projections to be more reliable, and therefore useful and worth the effort. thanks for the response

[gilthorp]

It depends on how much of a nerd you are. There are some here that do their own, and take themselves so seriously, it's annoying.

 

I would recommend other type of research instead of making your own rankings.

[crazylegs]

It depends on how much of a nerd you are. There are some here that do their own, and take themselves so seriously, it's annoying.

 

I would recommend other type of research instead of making your own rankings.

 

So what kind of research do you find most beneficial? I know O-lines, coaching changes and changing philosophies, SOS, personnel moves. Anything else you tend to look at?

[weebo]

Use the myHuddle option, enter in your leagues scoring system and...viola...you have a draft cheat sheet unique to your league...

[Go Skins]

I like to print out the depth chart, and then do a personal mock draft of all the players just based on that, with no other rankings to bias me... then, I compare it to what The Huddle, and others, say. Start with your own opinion, and go from there; it's more fun that way.

[crazylegs]

I like to print out the depth chart, and then do a personal mock draft of all the players just based on that, with no other rankings to bias me... then, I compare it to what The Huddle, and others, say. Start with your own opinion, and go from there; it's more fun that way.

 

That is an interesting idea. Maybe I will try that....hmmmmm

[Rovers]

I look at as many rankings/projections I can find, and watching what is what with O lines is I think pretty important. I don't create any personal ptorjections list, but I do know which players I think are under and over ranked. I'll say, print out the Huddle's cheat sheet and rank those players somewhat differently.

 

I'm not a stats guy per se, I don't cruch statiscial analysis to the nth degree, but read more than enough to have my own gut feel for most players. Each year I seem to find one, two three players I think are very unranked. R Rice was probably my best selection for most under valued last year. T Jones was another. Hit with NYG S Smith. I spend most of my reading time on team chemistry and coaching philosophy. I thought T Jones was a no brainer top 15 last year, maybe top10 based on those two things.

 

How does one choose between Brees and Manning? ADP or Johnson? Johnson's boycotting of camp? Player health reports... it all sort of soaks into the sponge, and my rankings are based on that, more gut feel based on accumilating info in my noggin, more than from a calculator based on trends and number crunching.

 

For the most part, player rankings from sites generally follow the same rules. Finding value players means thinking outside of how sites generate their rankings, and identifying the over and under valued players. I don't think recognizing those players can be based on previous trends, numbers and deviations from the median, whatever that means. I go by gut feel after researching as much as I wnat or choose to. Most leagues are won and lost in the 4th to 8th rounds as far as undervalued players, and lost in the first 3 rounds on over valued players.

[crazylegs]

I look at as many rankings/projections I can find, and watching what is what with O lines is I think pretty important. I don't create any personal ptorjections list, but I do know which players I think are under and over ranked. I'll say, print out the Huddle's cheat sheet and rank those players somewhat differently.

 

I'm not a stats guy per se, I don't cruch statiscial analysis to the nth degree, but read more than enough to have my own gut feel for most players. Each year I seem to find one, two three players I think are very unranked. R Rice was probably my best selection for most under valued last year. T Jones was another. Hit with NYG S Smith. I spend most of my reading time on team chemistry and coaching philosophy. I thought T Jones was a no brainer top 15 last year, maybe top10 based on those two things.

 

How does one choose between Brees and Manning? ADP or Johnson? Johnson's boycotting of camp? Player health reports... it all sort of soaks into the sponge, and my rankings are based on that, more gut feel based on accumilating info in my noggin, more than from a calculator based on trends and number crunching.

 

For the most part, player rankings from sites generally follow the same rules. Finding value players means thinking outside of how sites generate their rankings, and identifying the over and under valued players. I don't think recognizing those players can be based on previous trends, numbers and deviations from the median, whatever that means. I go by gut feel after researching as much as I wnat or choose to. Most leagues are won and lost in the 4th to 8th rounds as far as undervalued players, and lost in the first 3 rounds on over valued players.

 

I keep finding myself alternating between honing my idea of how I will draft ie: value based, tiers, adp, etc. and researching as much as possible about all the things you mentioned above, especially player roles, team philosophy, coaching changes and how this will change offensive and defensive philosopy, schemes and use of players, etc. I like all of what you said.

[gilthorp]

So what kind of research do you find most beneficial? I know O-lines, coaching changes and changing philosophies, SOS, personnel moves. Anything else you tend to look at?

 

O Line, yes.

 

Coaching changes and rookie QB's favor certain players.

 

SOS, but moreso on the final 6 weeks of the season/fantasy playoffs.

 

I like to do a good analysis of targets per system.

[crazylegs]

O Line, yes.

 

Coaching changes and rookie QB's favor certain players.

 

SOS, but moreso on the final 6 weeks of the season/fantasy playoffs.

 

I like to do a good analysis of targets per system.

 

Targets per system, interesting. I like this. My only question is if there are coaching changes have you found it doesn't apply to these teams ie: changing coaches=changing systems=changing targets?