A word of Advice for EVERYONE

[Cowboyz1]

I posted this last year and thought I would revisit it for anyone new.

 

I have been playing FF for about 15 years or so and I have gotten so that win more then I lose. I am just writing this for two reasons.

 

One, I am posting this to reinforce this stuff for myself so I stay focused

 

Two give my fellow Huddlers some of the things I have learned over the years. This might help with the WDIS posts. For what it's worth here goes.


Rules of thumb I have learned over the years.

1. It's easy to say "Never Sit Your Studs" but that is not enough as it needs more explanation then that. This is not to say you don't start someone over your stud for matchup purposes but there are some rules to this. I have read way too many WDIS questions asking whether to start Kap over Rogers or Ryan over Romo. Bottom line is this. In your draft if you picked Rodgers, Big Ben, Romo, Brady, Rogers, Brees, or Ryan these are your starters that you planned on starting all year. They should start all year. Unless you have a VETERAN with a good matchup. Key here is VETERAN that has produced before at a high level AND has a good matchup AND is playing HOT. Otherwise go with the guy you picked. A few years ago, for example, I went with Big Ben over Warner even though Big Ben has a shoulder issue and Warner put up three scores the week prior. It's not that I thought Big Ben was a better play necessarily but I am willing to bet against Warner throwing all over Washington, in Wa, for Big Ben going for 250 and 2 TD's. Worst case I have left say a touchdown on the bench but gain trade value and confidence in the future. Bottom line is I thought with Big Ben AND the rest of my guys they will do enough to win. ENOUGH TO WIN is key here. That's all you need, so don't try to kill your opponent just win baby, so taking a chance on a flyer takes second to consistent points. I banked on BIg Ben's 250 and 2 over a potential big day by Warner. However, I could have lost my butt if Warner put up a stinker in Wash thus lose when I could have won just staying with my steady 250 and 2 by Big Ben.

2. Leveraging point one. Your starters aren't going to go off every week. Brady is an exception and a very rare one at that. Teams that had Brady didn't always win. Why, because their other starters didn't consistently perform with him. That said, the more moves you make to your lineup each week the worse off you are lineup wise and the weaker your team is in general. If you find yourself agonizing over more than three positions you probably have an average record and need to trade for more solid players. One week I had Big Ben go for only 15 points and had to depend on Barber to take up the slack. He did and I won and went 2-0 for the season. Winning each week requires a combination of players that give you at least One great performance and 80% average ones. Average means 10 or more points. You will find that one week your RB goes off the next your WR goes off and then next your QB goes off, sometimes multiple players, all the while the rest of your roster leverages that player and puts you over the top with average performance. The key is having players on TEAMS that score points. Consistency is what wins. I would rather have a bunch of players that score points regularly then players that are spotty. Great one week, nothing the next kills you and you can't leverage that great performance that one or two of your guys put up each week.

3. Have players on teams that score points. This is sort of obvious but it could help you make decisions on players and stop about 50% of WDIS posts. If you are questioning a player always go with the player on the better team and that scores points. Oakland, Washington, Tenn, Jax are teams I just stay away from. Only if I have to do I start a player from those teams. This goes for drafting as well. I like guys that have done it before. My teams this year have Marlin Brown, Marvin Jones, VJAX, Ruben Randle, Steve Smith, Hurns, K. Allen, guys that proved they can do it given the opportunity. Some of them got hurt and were out a year but I like those guys to bounce back. Especially if they are young.
Everyone is drafting this time of year so this is an important point. After the first say 4 rounds the solid money players are primarily picked. However, the key rounds that make or break your team are just beginning. Rounds 4 through 10 are IMO the most important rounds of the draft. Players that are about to breakout are in those rounds. However, look for players that are on teams that have a good QB, Solid Line and a decent running game. Basically they don't have to have a great record but they have to have one thing and that is the ability to score points in order for me to draft or start a player. For example, I would rather draft Andre Johnson or James Jones even though there old then say some second year pro #1 for say the TENN. Despite him being #1 WR on TENN doesn't mean he will score more than the vets. A. Johnson is on a team with a great offense that moves the ball. While the other guys play on a team that scores maybe once or twice a game. The winner of your league most likely will not have any players on those types of teams. If you have players on those teams I would get rid of them as soon as possible. Remember as the season progresses, teams that are in contention play harder while teams that are out of it by mid season tend to have players that pack it in. You can never tell what a losing team's attitude is each week. They may just not care about playing that day or have a lame duck coach so they quit one week. Bottom line is try to get players even backups for players on winning teams in the hunt for the playoffs.

4. Don't make trades that are 4 quarters for a dollar bill. I posted a trade offer that I got a few years back in my league that basically gave me some value but not enough to make the trade. <DATED stuff but for example in 2007> I was offered Carson Palmer, Roddy White, and KII for Warner and Carlson. I said to myself, Winslow at the time was really good but a push in the short run with Carlson, and Palmer I don't think will stink all year long but White is on an Atlanta team that may never score consistently and didn't. I don't like the trade because it doesn't give me any more value now than I already have. Winslow may outperform Carlson and should but Warner is far more valuable than what he is offering. Basically, be sure you are getting present AND future value when you trade. You should only trade for players that help your team now and are on good football teams. Don't trade good players for great players on Bad football teams. Sometimes you have to give up more to improve a very weak position and that is understandable.

 

5.Rookies are Rookies. Many times you have to make a decision between a veteran and a rookie. I always go with my Vet if I can help it. Rookie running backs are not very good in pass protection which limits their ability to get on the field. Stacy or Bell are a perfect examples of potential starter that just isn't ready to protect the passer like the veterans thus aren't on the field. Moreover, when they are on the field, they tip the defense to it being a running play, thus hurting his performance. A few years ago was a perfect example with J. Charles in KC. LJ is complaining about touches despite having just 22 yards on 12 carries. You think Herm would not love to see Charles in there on a young team with no hope of reaching the playoffs? Charles proved he could pass protect by mid season and thus was more productive and the rest is history. In Donald Browns case, there is no way the coach is going to risk Manning to a missed Blitzer. So no matter how good Donald Brown was running the ball he would not be able to produce until he can be trusted in pass protection. Another prime example was in 2007 when the Cowboys were playing Cleveland and Felix Jones almost got Romo nailed when Willy McGinnis came on a blitz. Rookies have to have improved in pass protection and thus will see more of the field. The kid may be explosive but it doesn't matter until he could be a complete back and protect the QB. Rookie RB's have a lot to learn about this NFL game when it comes to blocking assignments and that is what you look for when thinking a rookie can start for a team. WR's are similar in that they need to learn how to get off the line of scrimmage and be where they are suppose to be ALL the time. Not easy in the NFL. Same with Christine we just signed. The first thing that must happen before he will see the field is proving to the coaches he knows how to pass protect, which sounds like it was an issue in Seattle hence why the let him go.

6. Don't be intimidated by your weekly opponent. Even though the guy is say, starting Romo, Bell and Julio Jones. Don't worry about him, just worry about you. Play your players and let them win for you. I see so often "the other guy is starting some stud so in so, should I go with so in so for the upside" which makes you adjust your every week lineup for fear of getting out pointed. This just may be the week his guys don't go off and you making a last minute change causes you to lose. If you have your lineup set don't change it at the last minute. I have found if I make a last minute change 8 out of 10 times I am wrong save weather conditions or last minute injury updates. If you can limit your loses to just being out pointed and NOT because you made a mistake second guessing in your lineup, that may be the difference in winning it all and losing it all. Think about it, over the years if you could just have back all the loses as a result of lineup mistakes? They add up, so let points beat you and not your head playing tricks with you second guessing.

Lastly, during the draft, don't listen to anybody else in the draft room. The Vets will try to sway you one way or another by using name dropping or false news reports and such. The Vets have ways of making you think twice about certain players. Do you own research and trust your instincts. RB/RB has long been the standard but given the NFL moving to RBBC more often than not, I have altered my early pick strategy to ensure I get a top WR early possibly two. After the top say 10-15 RB's it's really is RBBC left. So if you don't get those guys go for two stud WR's. Pick players you want to watch play if you can help it and they fit your criteria. Reaching is ok so long as you believe in the guy. I own Mcfadden in every league this year. I reached a few rounds to get him in some cases, while in others he was just there for the taking whenever. I believe he is going to run wild this year. I'm a homer if you haven't guessed already. But hey, how fun will it be to ride DMC into the playoffs if I'm right!

That's about it. I hope this helps out some and like I said, this is as much for me as it is for all of you. I get caught up in the same quandaries at times. I also don't consider myself to be above any of you or smarter just trying to help out. Each year I read this or my other writings to remind me to stay focused and not go chasing a guy I watched go off in a preseason game or is having a great camp.

Wish me luck and I do the same for all of you.

Edited September 10, 2015 by Cowboyz1

[devi0us]

Good Read. #6 is so true. I have to emphasize this also. Go with your "GUT" feeling. Last year in the opening round of the playoffs, I initially had Jerome Harrison and the Clevland Def in my lineup vs the Chiefs...A few of the other owners were hounding me about starting 2 Clevland players in the Playoffs...They got in my ear and I second guessed myself for the next few days. I made last minute changes...the result, Jerome Harison goes off for 286 yards and a couple of TD's and Josh Cribbs runs back 2 ST/DEF TD's...while both were on my BENCH!!! I was heartbroken...if I had started those 2, I would have made it to the Superbowl and Won...it still eats me up just thinking about it...So please, go with your "GUT"... 9 out of 10 times your "GUT" instinct is right.

[Cowboyz1]

Good Read. #6 is so true. I have to emphasize this also. Go with your "GUT" feeling. Last year in the opening round of the playoffs, I initially had Jerome Harrison and the Clevland Def in my lineup vs the Chiefs...A few of the other owners were hounding me about starting 2 Clevland players in the Playoffs...They got in my ear and I second guessed myself for the next few days. I made last minute changes...the result, Jerome Harison goes off for 286 yards and a couple of TD's and Josh Cribbs runs back 2 ST/DEF TD's...while both were on my BENCH!!! I was heartbroken...if I had started those 2, I would have made it to the Superbowl and Won...it still eats me up just thinking about it...So please, go with your "GUT"... 9 out of 10 times your "GUT" instinct is right.

 

 

Brutal. Just Brutal. I feel ya bro, man do I feel ya. I learned my lesson after doing that exact thing about 4 or 5 times over the years. I was hearbroken so many times. So I just finally realized that I would rather lose going with what got me there then lose like that. I can live with letting my guys do their thing but I can't live with benching points at the last minute. It just tears me up to bad for months.

[gsxunv04]

Great thread, and thanks for the advice. As a second year Fantasy player I am quickly learning from the mistakes I made last season, like changing my lineup 5 minutes before the games would start on Sunday. Good luck this year and thanks for the advice!

[dsagen]

Great Post. I have been playing fantasy football for 10 years, and have never won a league. My strategy has always been RB QB WR. 9/10 times I would do this and end up with a mediocre team, but like you said, i've always been a mid season manager. I pull studs for hot flashes and it gets me in trouble.

 

This year my strategy is Best Available, give or take 2 spots. I think with the RBBC, the draft is stacked with talent at the end of drafts. I remember drafting guys in the late rounds who were never going to see the field more than 3 times a game. But you draft him because a stud could go down.

 

Thanks,

 

Dale

[buddahj]

Great post Cowboyz1.

[Favre4ever]

One thing I've learned also is try and get running backs that play for good teams...Teamsthat are up run the ball compared to teams that are usually playing from behind and have to throw...Great advice! Sometimes it's easy to get caught up and lose focus but if you stick to those rules you'll always have a competitive team..

[Cowboyz1]

One thing I've learned also is try and get running backs that play for good teams...Teamsthat are up run the ball compared to teams that are usually playing from behind and have to throw...Great advice! Sometimes it's easy to get caught up and lose focus but if you stick to those rules you'll always have a competitive team..

 

 

Good point about playing from behind. Sometimes that bodes well for WR but not so good for running game. Good info here.

[Favre4ever]

Yah I do the opposite with WR's...I like one's that play for bad teams that are always playing from behind...And I'm talking about like your #3 wr these are usually Wr's that you take a flier on unless you draft your WR's early...

[Cowboyz1]

Yah I do the opposite with WR's...I like one's that play for bad teams that are always playing from behind...And I'm talking about like your #3 wr these are usually Wr's that you take a flier on unless you draft your WR's early...

 

 

Detroit is a great example of that with Calvin Johnson.

[Cowboyz1]

Has anyone gone WR/WR/RB this year?

[injendsm]

Good thread with some great points for people new to fantasy football and nice reminders for those of us who have taken part in the rodeo more than a couple of times. I still kick myself for making the mistake of picking a sleeper sooner than I should have in a draft instead of going for proven, consistent scoring. As far as the "always start your studs" argument, matchups play a large role, at least for me, in whether or not I'll start them. More often than not, they're always in my lineup unless they have a bye week. However, in the league listed in my sig, my main QB2 is Matt Ryan who plays at Pitt in week 1 while my QB3, Orton, plays in Jacksonville. Pitt is MUCH better against the pass and Denver will be throwing more early on with their backfield injuries so I'll be starting Orton instead. That's one instance where matchups can be a deciding factor with regards to sitting what would usually be your starter.

Edited August 28, 2010 by injendsm

[gsxunv04]

Playing Orton over Schaub...thats bold.Although Schaub will be playing Indy, the colts didnt stop Aaron Rodgers & co. the other night....

[delfamdelfam]

Playing Orton over Schaub...thats bold.Although Schaub will be playing Indy, the colts didnt stop Aaron Rodgers & co. the other night....

it's a 2 quarterback league

[injendsm]

Playing Orton over Schaub...thats bold.Although Schaub will be playing Indy, the colts didnt stop Aaron Rodgers & co. the other night....

 

No; Orton AND Schaub. It's a 2 QB league.

[gsxunv04]

oh gotcha

[raoul duke]

DMD should email this post to any new Huddler upon singing up. Kudos.

[Cowboyz1]

DMD should email this post to any new Huddler upon singing up. Kudos.

 

Thanks but DMD does a great job with his site and plenty of info here. I was on this board when he started and am very envious of him now that he is a BAZILLIONARE and gets to talk football all day.

[Cowboyz1]

Good thread with some great points for people new to fantasy football and nice reminders for those of us who have taken part in the rodeo more than a couple of times. I still kick myself for making the mistake of picking a sleeper sooner than I should have in a draft instead of going for proven, consistent scoring. As far as the "always start your studs" argument, matchups play a large role, at least for me, in whether or not I'll start them. More often than not, they're always in my lineup unless they have a bye week. However, in the league listed in my sig, my main QB2 is Matt Ryan who plays at Pitt in week 1 while my QB3, Orton, plays in Jacksonville. Pitt is MUCH better against the pass and Denver will be throwing more early on with their backfield injuries so I'll be starting Orton instead. That's one instance where matchups can be a deciding factor with regards to sitting what would usually be your starter.

 

That would make sense IF the defenses are the same as last year. I am not so sure the steelers are going to be as solid has they have been this year on D. Especially if they are left out there all game if the O sputters. I don't know if I would go with Orton over Ryan. Orton doesn't have Marshall any longer and who know is J. Jones is ready to take on the #2 role. We will see though.

[The Spruce Moose]

Has anyone gone WR/WR/RB this year?

I went RB/WR/WR

 

1st pick so Johnson, megatron and Roddy White. I was pretty happy. Got Schaub in the 5th.

[delusions of grandeur]

Very good post Cowboyz! Lots of good information that players from all skill levels can understand... I just wanted to clarify on this situation:

 

Good thread with some great points for people new to fantasy football and nice reminders for those of us who have taken part in the rodeo more than a couple of times. I still kick myself for making the mistake of picking a sleeper sooner than I should have in a draft instead of going for proven, consistent scoring. As far as the "always start your studs" argument, matchups play a large role, at least for me, in whether or not I'll start them. More often than not, they're always in my lineup unless they have a bye week. However, in the league listed in my sig, my main QB2 is Matt Ryan who plays at Pitt in week 1 while my QB3, Orton, plays in Jacksonville. Pitt is MUCH better against the pass and Denver will be throwing more early on with their backfield injuries so I'll be starting Orton instead. That's one instance where matchups can be a deciding factor with regards to sitting what would usually be your starter.

 

See, I think the further you get away from studliness, the more you almost have to play matchups or ride the hot hand, which can be quite the tricky game indeed... But if Matt Ryan takes the leap that he's capable of this year, then I again think it becomes a case of ASYS (Always start your studs)... Orton should put up respectable numbers, but only if Ryan remains questionable as a top-passer do I think this is a situation where I'd be playing matchups. (Feel free to chime in if you disagree Cowboyz).

 

But no doubt that in most cases, you start the guys you drafted first, unless their performance (NOT matchups) is not up to par with their high ranking.

Edited September 7, 2010 by delusions of granduer

[Cowboyz1]

Very good post Cowboyz! Lots of good information that players from all skill levels can understand... I just wanted to clarify on this situation:

 

 

 

See, I think the further you get away from studliness, the more you almost have to play matchups or ride the hot hand, which can be quite the tricky game indeed... But if Matt Ryan takes the leap that he's capable of this year, then I again think it becomes a case of ASYS (Always start your studs)... Orton should put up respectable numbers, but only if Ryan remains questionable as a top-passer do I think this is a situation where I'd be playing matchups. (Feel free to chime in if you disagree Cowboyz).

 

But no doubt that in most cases, you start the guys you drafted first, unless their performance (NOT matchups) is not up to par with their high ranking.

 

 

To be honest, I would start Ryan because he has White, Jenkins, Douglas and Gonzo who he is comfortable with and has had two full seaons and training camps together to get more familiar. Turner is solid to threaten the D so play action works. Orton on the other hand has a lot of change to deal with. Moreno is still a question mark, as is his wide outs. Orton may do better then Ryan but if you asked me who I would start week one this year, it's Ryan no question. I would go with less risk. If my gut told me to go with Orton I might listen but my fantasy senses tell me to go with Ryan because his offense does not have the question marks that Orton's does. Can you name the starting wide outs for Denver of the top of your head? I had to think about it. Not one of them is a proven #1 and certainly not in the league of Marshall. To be honest, I don't know if Denver can move the ball at all with their new Offense. Thus, since I don't know, I go with what I do know and what I have seen, and that is Ryan and White will and have hooked up to score. I can't say that about Orton and his WR's.

Edited September 7, 2010 by Cowboyz1

[Furd]

The Vets will try to sway you one way or another by using . . .false news reports.

 

Those guys aren't "Vets," they're *ssholes. Don't do it. And don't tolerate anyone that does it.

[Cowboyz1]

Those guys aren't "Vets," they're *ssholes. Don't do it. And don't tolerate anyone that does it.

 

 

Very true, for those that do that. However, I am talking about even those that are playing around but even that makes rookies feel unsure and question their pick doubting themselves.

 

I do think those that play like that aren't being good league members and don't last very long in the league.

[injendsm]

That would make sense IF the defenses are the same as last year. I am not so sure the steelers are going to be as solid has they have been this year on D. Especially if they are left out there all game if the O sputters. I don't know if I would go with Orton over Ryan. Orton doesn't have Marshall any longer and who know is J. Jones is ready to take on the #2 role. We will see though.

 

Good points. I've actually thought more and more over the past few days that he'd get me more points simply because he may end up on the field much more often with the big question mark at QB for the Steelers.