muck Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 AFC seedings 12-4 NYJ 11-5 PIT 9-7 IND 9-7 KC 12-4 NE 10-6 BAL NFC seedings 12-4 ATL 11-5 PHI 10-6 GB 8-8 SEA 10-6 NO 10-6 CHI Top 10 Draft Picks: 3-13 CAR 4-12 CIN 4-12 DET 4-12 BUF 5-11 DAL 6-10 SF 6-10 MIN 6-10 DEN 6-10 ARI 6-10 CLE *********************************** DIVISIONAL STANDINGS AFC East 12-4 NYJ 12-4 NE 8-8 MIA 4-12 BUF AFC North 11-5 PIT 10-6 BAL 6-10 CLE 4-12 CIN AFC South 9-7 IND 9-7 JAC 8-8 TEN 7-9 HOU AFC West 9-7 KC 9-7 SD 8-8 OAK 6-10 DEN NFC East 11-5 PHI 9-7 NYG 8-8 WAS 5-11 DAL NFC North 10-6 GB 10-6 CHI 6-10 MIN 4-12 DET NFC South 12-4 ATL 10-6 NO 10-6 TB 3-13 CAR NFC West 8-8 SEA 7-9 STL 6-10 ARI 6-10 SF NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 2 games' outcome (255 wins v. 257 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa. *********************************** Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %: 0.283 ARI 0.383 PIT 0.400 CLE 0.417 SD 0.433 PHI Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents W/L %: 0.617 DET 0.617 CIN 0.583 DAL 0.583 CHI 0.567 BUF 0.567 CAR 0.567 GB 0.567 TB *********************************** Power Ranks: 1.161 PIT 1.158 PHI 1.157 NYJ 1.155 NE 1.147 ATL 1.141 GB 1.109 BAL 1.086 NO 1.085 SD 1.073 IND 1.065 NYG 1.052 TEN 1.051 CHI 1.037 TB 1.017 KC 1.009 OAK 0.985 MIA 0.976 HOU 0.974 JAC 0.961 WAS 0.958 CLE 0.927 SEA 0.917 STL 0.908 MIN 0.901 DAL 0.891 CIN 0.886 DEN 0.880 SF 0.878 DET 0.874 BUF 0.859 ARI 0.724 CAR *********************************** After starting four weeks ago, the methodology below has been 37-18 outright winners: Week 12 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored): SD at IND ... IND by 2.7 JAC at NYG ... NYG by 5.9 TEN at HOU ... TEN by 0.1 KC at SEA ... KC by 0.2 STL at DEN ... DEN by 2.2 PHI at CHI ... PHI by 4.9 MIN at WAS ... WAS by 4.4 MIA at OAK ... OAK by 3.7 NYJ at CIN ... NYJ by 2.5 PIT at BUF ... PIT by 3.7 GB at ATL ... ATL by 2.1 CAR at CLE ... CLE by 4.5 ARI at SF ... ARI by 1.5 NE at DET ... NE by 1.0 TB at BAL ... BAL by 5.8 NO at DAL ... NO by 0.5 ...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted November 23, 2010 Share Posted November 23, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted November 24, 2010 Share Posted November 24, 2010 Based on the prior thread, the Jets fell two spots....even though they won I know its a function of who they played/strength of schedule/etc.....but its seems really odd now that they moved up to #1 by scratching out wins over the Browns and Lions, then fell two spots by beating the Texans. In other news, I like where the Eagles are ranked, and your top-10 is spot on (regardless of order). nice work, Muck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 24, 2010 Author Share Posted November 24, 2010 (edited) Based on the prior thread, the Jets fell two spots....even though they won I know its a function of who they played/strength of schedule/etc.....but its seems really odd now that they moved up to #1 by scratching out wins over the Browns and Lions, then fell two spots by beating the Texans. In other news, I like where the Eagles are ranked, and your top-10 is spot on (regardless of order). nice work, Muck! Thanks. RE: NYJ -- note that their actual score went up, but not as much as either PIT or PHI, hence their lower relative rank. ETA: My predictions for last week: HOU at NYJ ... NYJ by 8.0 NYG at PHI ... PHI by 4.2 OAK at PIT ... PIT by 4.7 Actually, NYJ won by 3 pts, PHI won by 10 pts and PIT won by 32 pts ... so, while all three teams won, NYJ won by less than they should have ... and PHI and PIT won by more than they should have ... so, I believe that the change you're seeing in the Power Rank is wholly logical. NOTE: The Power Rank is only very slightly influenced by the actual "margin of victory"; loads of other factors go into it, but MOV is a metaphor for other items like yards gained, yards allowed, 3rd down conversion efficiency, turnovers, penalties, etc. Edited November 24, 2010 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 26, 2010 Author Share Posted November 26, 2010 NYJ at CIN ... NYJ by 2.5NE at DET ... NE by 1.0 NO at DAL ... NO by 0.5 ...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site... Well, I got two right and the third is looking pretty good so far... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Not as good as last week, but still 9-6 this week heading into MNF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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