Hillis/Hardesty

[Dcat]

OK Browns homers.... and everyone else. what's the deal here? Holmgren and the new coach tooting their horns how happy they will be to have a full platoon situation, implying 50% Hardesty and 50% Hillis. However... haven't heard anything about Hardesty's ACL recovery. ANd I don't really recall Holmgren teams in Seattle or Green Bay doing much platooning.

 

What are people thinking here? How much less work does Hillis get in 2011?

[tazinib1]

Good post. I love Hardesty and didn't see P.Hillis coming at all last year. That being said, P.Hillis garnered 78% of the carries last year. No way he approaches that in 2011. The Browns didn't spend a 2nd round pick on Hardesty to let him ride the pine. Is there gonna be a 50-50 split? I wouldn't go that far but I wouldn't rule out a 60-40 either.

 

As far as the ACL injury goes, expect Hardesty to be cleared for football activities by June.

Edited April 2, 2011 by tazinib1

[DMD]

It is still too early to really tell but Hillis was wearing down later in the season last year and Hardesty was initially drafted in the hopes he would become the primary back. That all said there is no way they are going to phase the popular Hillis out but at this point you have to assume that there will be enough sharing for Hillis' stock to take a hit.

 

Hillis had a great 2010 season in some part because Hardesty was lost and there was no one else to turn to. Hillis had never had that sort of workload since he was in High School. With free agency suspended, there is no way to know yet if the Browns also bring in a veteran.

 

In a highly speculative guess, I would expect Hillis to have his stock downgraded to being more of a RB2 for a fantasy team and cross fingers it doesn't end up any lower. He only had 270 carries last year but never scored in the final five games and had only one effort go over 59 rushing yards in that stretch. His major benefit was scoring and that dropped off steeply last year.

[Bronco Billy]

Holmgren has never impressed me as being dumb, and it would be dumb to reduce Hillis' role by anything other than what it takes to keep him fresh for the entire year. I am also skeptical that Hardesty can bring to the table the level of production and reliability that Hillis does.

 

If they could limit Hillis to 18 to 20 touches a game, that would do the trick and while he wouldn't have some wildly awesome games, in the long run ought to make Hillis owners happy. I'd figure Hardesty for 10 to 13 touches a game.

[DMD]

Thing is that Hillis did not have that heavy of a load last year anyway. He ranked 11th with 270 carries and here is how his per game carries looked compared to any carries by a different CLE back in that game:

 

 

WK OPP

1 PH = 9 non-PH = 9 @TB

2 PH = 8 non-PH = 16 KC

3 PH = 22 non-PH = 4 @BAL

4 PH = 27 non-PH = 0 CIN

5 PH = 10 non-PH = 6 ATL

6 PH = 12 non-PH = 2 @PIT

7 PH = 16 non-PH = 5 @NO

9 PH = 29 non-PH = 9 NE

10 PH = 19 non-PH = 1 NYJ

11 PH = 21 non-PH = 1 @JAC

12 PH = 26 non-PH = 2 CAR

13 PH = 18 non-PH = 0 @MIA

14 PH = 21 non-PH = 3 @BUF

15 PH = 14 non-PH = 0 @CIN

16 PH = 12 non-PH = 7 BAL

17 PH = 6 non-PH = 5 PIT

 

He only had three games where he had more than 22 carries and the Browns used other backs sparingly. After week 2, there were only three times all other RBs combined for more than 5 carries and that includes Vickers the FB. The beauty of Hillis last year was that he scored in nine of his first ten games (though none in the final five) and he had three monster rushing games (144, 184 and 131) to pump up his totals and his role as a pass catcher kept him valuable every week in PPR leagues. Scary part of his slow down last year is that after being good for around 5 or 6 catches per week, every week, that he only had four in week 14 and then just four catches total over the final three weeks when you needed him most.

 

Mixing in Hardesty (or anyone for that matter) will be interesting and it will go against the three different roles that Hillis had last year - short yardage scoring machine, heavy-use primary runner and #2 receiver on his team.

[Bronco Billy]

He only had three games where he had more than 22 carries and the Browns used other backs sparingly. After week 2, there were only three times all other RBs combined for more than 5 carries and that includes Vickers the FB. The beauty of Hillis last year was that he scored in nine of his first ten games (though none in the final five) and he had three monster rushing games (144, 184 and 131) to pump up his totals and his role as a pass catcher kept him valuable every week in PPR leagues. Scary part of his slow down last year is that after being good for around 5 or 6 catches per week, every week, that he only had four in week 14 and then just four catches total over the final three weeks when you needed him most.

 

Mixing in Hardesty (or anyone for that matter) will be interesting and it will go against the three different roles that Hillis had last year - short yardage scoring machine, heavy-use primary runner and #2 receiver on his team.

 

A couple of thoughts on that:

 

Hillis also had 61 receptions, so with 270 carries he was almost at 21 touches a game. He also is not what one could describe as a finesse runner. He absorbs a lot of punishment even on the plays where he was dishing it out. Also, carrying 250 lbs and getting the workload he did took a toll. I would guess his recovery time is longer than a scatback. You can also see that his workload was reduced significantly the last 3 games to an average of 12 touches a game, so his workload through the predominance of the season was more than what the whole season average projected. Count 24 touches total for the first two games, and that means in weeks 3 through 14 he was at 221 carries and 50 catches over that 11 game stretch. That's almost 25 touches a game - that's a serious workload.

 

If you expect the CLE O to improve, which I think it will, especially if they get a top WR (Green/Jones) in Rd 1 and with McCoy maturing, the offensive opportunities ought to increase. It also ought to get the SS out of the box more - CLE's WRs scared no one last season.

 

I think Hillis can take fewer touches per game - like I said, my guess is his target will be 18 to 20 per game - and remain just as productive because he'll be healthier, not playing hurt as much and running in a better sitiuation. Hillis with a Hardesty counterpunch would be a pretty effective backfield.