Bronco Billy Posted August 10, 2011 Share Posted August 10, 2011 (edited) in the few 10 team mock drafts I've done so far, he's usually gone before the start of the 3rd Using 12 team ppr leagues that have had real drafts since August 1st, mfl has his ADP at 4.02 (Shonn Greene is at 4.08 and Mark Ingram is at 4.12 - these are the 18th through 20th RBs off the average board) There's some very serious value to be had beyond Rd 2 at RB this year. I can't believe any of those guys are dropping past the end of rd 2 Edited August 10, 2011 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 (edited) made a mistake...hope you all see this blount goes as the 12 or so back off the boards 16 in this latest 10 team mock Edited August 11, 2011 by loaf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scorcher Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I think he's going to have a good year and would be a great rb2. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Quarter Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I had him on my team and got to see a lot of Tampa games last year. The problem with Blount is that he is slow to the line and takes time to get going. This is why he struggled at the goal line and was frquently stopped for little gain. That being said, if and when he got through the line he was a beast. If he couldn't run over defenders, he hurdled them. He is on my wish list for a number 2 back with number 1 potential. If he is still on the board at 3:11 or 4:2 I may have to snag him. Just my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I had him on my team and got to see a lot of Tampa games last year. The problem with Blount is that he is slow to the line and takes time to get going. This is why he struggled at the goal line and was frquently stopped for little gain. That being said, if and when he got through the line he was a beast. If he couldn't run over defenders, he hurdled them. He is on my wish list for a number 2 back with number 1 potential. If he is still on the board at 3:11 or 4:2 I may have to snag him. Just my opinion. I don't see Blount as being slow to the line at all when you watch. In fact, he gets to the ball and secures it very quickly, then gathers himself to evaluate the holes available (allowing his line to do their job) and then explodes into the seam. You can watch it over and over in the video linked below. What you call slow to the line I call decisive patience and using his vision, and these are critical attributes of all the stud runners. There are a ton of guys who can launch themselves at the designated hole without thought - and run right into the backs of their blockers. It's the guys who take a quarter of a second to evaluate and then get into seams quickly who excel at RB. A guy who is slow to the LoS isn't going to gain 5.0 ypc in the NFL. Down near the goal line the seams are a whole lot smaller and a lot of times the success of goal line runs doesn't succeed by technique blocking but rather by the O-lineman simply getting lower and forcing the D-line off the LoS. It's much more a matter of physical domination down there. That was a weakness for the TB O-line last year and a good part of the reason why Blount didn't gain much yardage in tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Let's qualify that a bit. That's his stats in only 7 starts and 13 games. Blount didn't hit double digit carries until week 6. He was signed off the TEN PS and joined TB on September 7th. So that was his production without gettting the benefit of OTAs or a preseason with TB, and also in a partial season and getting pulled on passing downs. Now if he plays a full season as the starter from day 1 and also gets to stay in in passing situations? You're looking at RB1 production here. +1 Forget highlights. Anyone can find any evidence they want to find to support whatever opinion they already have about Blount. Looking at the numbers from BBs post, it stands to reason that Blount offers a lot of upside and could crack the top ten. Nobody knows if he will. But I like the idea of Blount as my RB2 if he is still there in the late 3rd or early 4th, and he is probably worth taking anywhere in the 3rd in a non PPR. I actually am higher on Blount than guys like Bradshaw (injury concerns and Jacobs to vulture) and Shonn Greene (why couldn't he beat out an over the hill LT for the lead role last year). With Freeman and Mike Williams standing to (hopefully) only get better, I like where this team is headed, Blount included. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Using 12 team ppr leagues that have had real drafts since August 1st, mfl has his ADP at 4.02 (Shonn Greene is at 4.08 and Mark Ingram is at 4.12 - these are the 18th through 20th RBs off the average board) There's some very serious value to be had beyond Rd 2 at RB this year. I can't believe any of those guys are dropping past the end of rd 2 Again, I'm not going William Green with this kid and grabbing him in the early 2nd of 12 team drafts, but I can't see passing on him in the 3rd. If I can make him my RB2 and still grab an elite WR in round 1 or 2? I'll be very, very happy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Again, I'm not going William Green with this kid and grabbing him in the early 2nd of 12 team drafts, but I can't see passing on him in the 3rd. If I can make him my RB2 and still grab an elite WR in round 1 or 2? I'll be very, very happy. That's twice you've made a point of linking William Green to Blount. Care to explain where you see any similarities between the play of the two? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 (edited) That's twice you've made a point of linking William Green to Blount. Care to explain where you see any similarities between the play of the two? Not linking their style of play, rather the trend of drafters. Young RB catches fire for half a season and becomes everyone's darling pick. In Green's case, that meant he was going at the top half of the 2nd round, ahead of guys who'd proven themselves over full seasons. So, like we shouldn't have done with Green (who btw also had a 1st round pedigree so the notion that he was the heir apparent in Cleveland seemed rather confirmed by his progress as a rookie), I'm not going to pass up guys who've proven themselves a bit more and be a little greedy with Blount. He may not have to "fall" to me, but I'm not going to really reach for him either. Sorry Billy, I know you love to disagree with me even when I actually agree with what you're saying, but you're going to have to dig deep if you're going to do that on this one. Edited August 11, 2011 by detlef Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Sorry Billy, I know you love to disagree with me even when I actually agree with what you're saying, but you're going to have to dig deep if you're going to do that on this one. :confused: You made it a point to use Green twice in comparison with Blount. I asked why. That's unreasonable? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 :confused: You made it a point to use Green twice in comparison with Blount. I asked why. That's unreasonable? I think anyone not looking for an argument understood what I was saying. At no point did I imply they had similar styles. Rather, that they both had the chance of getting hyped to the point of failing to represent value any longer, and I wasn't going to be the guy, this time, who pulled the trigger once that happened. Tell me that you're actually confused about the rationale for discounting guys who've burst on the scene and put together one half of one year compared to others who have been there. That's part of what is attractive about taking Blount, that you get a guy who may be top 10 for cheaper than you should. However, as soon as you take him as the 10th RB off the board, you've given away that part of the deal. That would have been the charm about William Green, except people got carried away and took him 15th overall. That would have been the charm about Dom Davis the year after he broke out, but for the fact that he was going top 10-15 overall. That is not to say that they're the same back, but rather that they all have that one very important thing in common. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawofmurphy Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 For the record I definitely see what you're saying here. Taking Blount in, say, the 2nd round is a risk. It's the SAME risk as taking Arian Foster there last year was. Or taking Larry Johnson, Anthony Thomas, or Kevin Smith the year after their breakout half-campaigns. That's to say, there's potential for HUGE reward or a decent sized risk. But that's fantasy football and that's why it's fun I think anyone not looking for an argument understood what I was saying. At no point did I imply they had similar styles. Rather, that they both had the chance of getting hyped to the point of failing to represent value any longer, and I wasn't going to be the guy, this time, who pulled the trigger once that happened. Tell me that you're actually confused about the rationale for discounting guys who've burst on the scene and put together one half of one year compared to others who have been there. That's part of what is attractive about taking Blount, that you get a guy who may be top 10 for cheaper than you should. However, as soon as you take him as the 10th RB off the board, you've given away that part of the deal. That would have been the charm about William Green, except people got carried away and took him 15th overall. That would have been the charm about Dom Davis the year after he broke out, but for the fact that he was going top 10-15 overall. That is not to say that they're the same back, but rather that they all have that one very important thing in common. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I think anyone not looking for an argument understood what I was saying. At no point did I imply they had similar styles. Rather, that they both had the chance of getting hyped to the point of failing to represent value any longer, and I wasn't going to be the guy, this time, who pulled the trigger once that happened. Tell me that you're actually confused about the rationale for discounting guys who've burst on the scene and put together one half of one year compared to others who have been there. That's part of what is attractive about taking Blount, that you get a guy who may be top 10 for cheaper than you should. However, as soon as you take him as the 10th RB off the board, you've given away that part of the deal. That would have been the charm about William Green, except people got carried away and took him 15th overall. That would have been the charm about Dom Davis the year after he broke out, but for the fact that he was going top 10-15 overall. That is not to say that they're the same back, but rather that they all have that one very important thing in common. That is exactly how I read what you wrote . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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