Philip Rivers... Bounce back year or window closed?

[dfv87]

I still like Rivers but now maybe as a back up or 1 of committee of 2 Qbs playing matchups...

Rodgers, Brees, Brady, Manning, Manning, Cam, Stafford are all ahead IMO

he is lumped with Ryan, Cutler and some others as guys that can start but are not locks every week.

 

The window to win it all I think is over for the Bolts (IMO) but is his time as a top 5-6 QB over? LAst year he had 20 picks and now doesn't have hat stud WR on the outside.

 

During PR's big years LT made his dump off passes worth an extra 80 and TD that he hasn't seen in the past season or 2...

 

Anybody else have some insight on this?

[MTSuper7]

What concerns me the most is how he appeared to have lost some arm strength. Forget where I read it, but someone did a write-up on every single interception Rivers threw last year. The majority were on Rivers with a decent number of his picks being on under thrown balls. Hard to know how he will fare with Meachem there instead of VJax, but I don't see any reason to expect a big bounce back. I also think his numbers are tied closely to Gates' health. If Gates stays healthy all season, Rivers will probably end up in the top 8-10 for QBs. If not, more likely he ends up at or below top 12. Gates' red zone presence is hugh.

[Chargerz]

If Rivers, the offensive line, and the receivers can stay healthy I see a big bounce-back year for Philip in 2012. I'm not particularly a Meachem fan, but Gates, Royal, Brown, and Matthews give Rivers enough quality targets that he should do fine....

 

....IF he will throw the ball away or dump it off underneath instead of forcing the ball into coverage. I hated the picks last year.

[delfamdelfam]

was he hiding a injury last year?

[Chargerz]

was he hiding a injury last year?

 

Neither Rivers nor the Chargers organization will admit to that.

[Clanc3]

I saw some stat last year that the last 3-5 games he finished with most Famtasy points for a QB

[WashingtonD]

Didnt Tmr have rivers in just 100 facts article talking about the number of drops of vjax and Tolbert had affecting his stats?

 

I think he has a bounce back year. Top 8 QB stats barring injury

[stevegrab]

I think its a bounce back year. Lots of the trouble last year was the injuries on the OL. Add in the loss of sproles, and some newer players, and no off season. Sure a lot of it is on Rivers. I think he is a guy you draft and start every week without playing matchups. Another bad season and I'll agree that he's on a downward slide.

 

As far as top QB in last 5 games, not sure but he did do better in that stretch. His numbers overall were not terrible (INT were high yes), he was 10th in QB scoring in my league. (6pt/TD, 1pt/50passyards) The tough part was the low scoring games (6 of 11 points or less), the high number of low or zero TD games (8/16).

[Kris N]

He doesnt have to force it in to VJax anymore. the biggest things that affected Rivers last year were his "injury", the offensive line falling apart, and Gates not being 100%. Gates is his security blanket and he is finally healthy (or at least we are being told that he is). i dont think losing VJax will have the effect some think, pretty sure Rivers had a great year in 2010 without VJax for most of it. I think he does better when he can choose where he wants to throw rather than force it deep into double/triple coverage on VJax. Rivers has always had good chemistry with Floyd (when healthy) and Gates is a beast if he really is over the foot problems. I think the bounce back year has less to do with Rivers and more to do with the health of his weapons.....but I see the Chargers offense doing well and there is definitely value to be had in most of the players based on current ADP

[MTSuper7]

He doesnt have to force it in to VJax anymore. the biggest things that affected Rivers last year were his "injury", the offensive line falling apart, and Gates not being 100%. Gates is his security blanket and he is finally healthy (or at least we are being told that he is). i dont think losing VJax will have the effect some think, pretty sure Rivers had a great year in 2010 without VJax for most of it. I think he does better when he can choose where he wants to throw rather than force it deep into double/triple coverage on VJax. Rivers has always had good chemistry with Floyd (when healthy) and Gates is a beast if he really is over the foot problems. I think the bounce back year has less to do with Rivers and more to do with the health of his weapons.....but I see the Chargers offense doing well and there is definitely value to be had in most of the players based on current ADP

 

 

Rivers is the one responsible for forcing throws into double coverage. He got too impatient at times. Plus, what do we make of Robert Meachem? Here's a guy who has been middling around with the Saints but never really played well enough to force his way into an every down/permanent role. He was "just a guy" in New Orleans. It will be interesting to learn how good Meachem really is this year (as compared to the bar set by Vincent Jackson). Meachem is the ultimate risk/reward pick for where he is being drafted and one of the players we should all be watching closely this preseason.

[bostonsoxandy]

Didnt Tmr have rivers in just 100 facts article talking about the number of drops of vjax and Tolbert had affecting his stats?

 

I think he has a bounce back year. Top 8 QB stats barring injury

 

 

TMR recommends him? That's it im selling my Rivers stock.

[electricrelish]

Meh. They should have never gotten rid of Brees.

[Kris N]

Meh. They should have never gotten rid of Brees.

 

 

the dolphins should have 1) drafted Brees instead of garbage Jamar Fletcher or 2) signed Brees instead of garbage Culpepper. Chargers and Dolphins both blew it on the whole Brees subject. I understand the Chargers were stuck with Rivers and Brees so they got something rather than keeping both, but my Dolphins have no excuse. I still hate Saban for choosing......"poorly" that offseason.

[Brentastic]

Meh. They should have never gotten rid of Brees.

 

I said as much 8 years ago

[Tripleshot]

Methinks he bounces back this year. He finished strong last year. I expect him to be a surefire fantasy starter, just not quite elite. I'd have no reservations drafting him in later rounds if I didn't get one of the 3 elite QBs early.

 

Someone brought up Meachem. I've always liked him, he's just never lived up to his potential. Can that be blamed on his injury history or all the competition for catches in Nawlins? I guess we'll find out. He'll get a shot in San Diego, but both a healthy Macolm Floyd and an emerging Vincent Brown may get in his way. Either way, I'm not convinced the Bolts are going to miss VJ as much most people think.

[detlef]

Didnt Tmr have rivers in just 100 facts article talking about the number of drops of vjax and Tolbert had affecting his stats?

 

I think he has a bounce back year. Top 8 QB stats barring injury

Not for nothing, but he did finish top 7 last year

 

I guess I'm having a hard time understanding why we're asking whether a dude who threw for 4600 yards and 27 TDs, numbers right at his 3 year average, is going to "bounce back".

 

He is what he is. A guy who puts up very nice yards and a good, but not mind-blowing amount of TDs. Someone that you should be happy to end up with once all the sexy QB picks are gone and you've been taking RBs and WRs.

[stevegrab]

Not for nothing, but he did finish top 7 last year

 

I guess I'm having a hard time understanding why we're asking whether a dude who threw for 4600 yards and 27 TDs, numbers right at his 3 year average, is going to "bounce back".

 

He is what he is. A guy who puts up very nice yards and a good, but not mind-blowing amount of TDs. Someone that you should be happy to end up with once all the sexy QB picks are gone and you've been taking RBs and WRs.

 

 

I think it was all the interceptions last year, and what appeared to be a less consistent scoring. If you look at his stats in 2011, vs. 2010 or any other year back to 2006 when he took over as starter, they really aren't that far off.

 

Tried to post some stats but they don't work that well. Basically his stats are

3yr avg ATT=536, comp%=64.7, yards=4529, TD=28, INT=14

2011 ATT=582, comp%=62.9, yards=4624, TD=27, INT=20

2010 ATT=541, comp%=66.0, yards=4710, TD=30, INT=13

 

Looking at the consistency angle, in his first 7 games last year he threw 2TD in the first 2, then 0-1-1-1-0 in the next 5. So he came out ok, and a little above his 1.75TD/game. Then he fell off heavily, and disappointed many owners. He got better after that but by then you're half way through the season and possibly in a hole. His fantasy points in my league went like this

18-20-5-13-18-9-9-31-17-17-9-23-22-11-11-24

 

I think the point is that during last season people were questioning whether they shoud start Rivers, something that hadn't been needed the prior 5 years. So his "bouncing back" is to a must start (S2) status.

Edited August 7, 2012 by stevegrab

[dfv87]

I think it was all the interceptions last year, and what appeared to be a less consistent scoring. If you look at his stats in 2011, vs. 2010 or any other year back to 2006 when he took over as starter, they really aren't that far off.

 

Tried to post some stats but they don't work that well. Basically his stats are

3yr avg ATT=536, comp%=64.7, yards=4529, TD=28, INT=14

2011 ATT=582, comp%=62.9, yards=4624, TD=27, INT=20

2010 ATT=541, comp%=66.0, yards=4710, TD=30, INT=13

 

Looking at the consistency angle, in his first 7 games last year he threw 2TD in the first 2, then 0-1-1-1-0 in the next 5. So he came out ok, and a little above his 1.75TD/game. Then he fell off heavily, and disappointed many owners. He got better after that but by then you're half way through the season and possibly in a hole. His fantasy points in my league went like this

18-20-5-13-18-9-9-31-17-17-9-23-22-11-11-24

 

I think the point is that during last season people were questioning whether they shoud start Rivers, something that hadn't been needed the prior 5 years. So his "bouncing back" is to a must start (S2) status.

 

 

My questions was based on this thought also... Steve thanks for the quantitative analysis of "he was really up and down on a weekly basis" for a top tier QB or Stud...

[detlef]

I guess my point is this: Rivers currently has an ADP of 63 on MFL, which places him safely in the category of "dudes that aren't Tom Brady". That means, in a 12 team league, you can address 4-5 other positions quite nicely and still grab a guy who apparently needs to "rebound" from a season where he only finished 7th among FF QBs.

 

Assuming that you do a decent job with those first 4-5 picks and the rest of your draft, then you should have a team that's good enough to endure most of his off weeks and capitalize on all of his great ones. That smells a whole lot like at least 9-5 or 10-4. I don't know about you guys, but I just want a good enough record to make the play-offs. From there, it's all a matter of whose team is hot anyway.

 

Of course, that's assuming he doesn't "rebound" and gives you another season where he merely puts up 4500+ and 27 TDs. If he does rocket back up to his old form of basically about the same amount of yards with a few more TDs and less picks, well then you're stoked.