2011 LAG Analysis

[Pancake]

Has anybody read David Dorey's book "Fantasy Football: The Next Level"?

 

If you have then I'm hoping to get some input.

 

So I run my 2011 LAG and QBs scored much more than RBs until their LAG lines intersect around #11. Meaning, the top 6 QBs scored much than the top 6 RBs and then the top 7 thorugh 11 QBs scored slightly better than the top 7 through 11 RBs. In the past, the best 3 or 4 RBs would score a little more than the first couple QBs and then the QB and RB LAGs would intersect and mirror each other starting around #6. My leagues scoring system was set up so QB, RB, and WR have pretty equal values but in 2011 the QB numbers completely blew up. Back in 2009 we adjusted our scoring systems to take points away from QBs and add points to RBs and WRs as we noticed a trend that the QBs were outscoring all other positions dramatically. This 2009 scoring adjustment worked great so that team managers with early picks were not at an advantage over team managers with later round picks. I hear all the time that this is a QB driven league and more teams are moving to RBBC and thought that we had made the proper scoring adjustments.

 

My question is:

 

Do you think this is the start of a trend that the top QBs will be scoring similarly as they did in 2011, or do you think that 2011 was a fluke year?

Edited August 8, 2012 by Pancake

[Big Country]

Here is where I find a flaw in the LAG as you described it - you are not taking into account lineup requirements, and you are not baselining the positions so you arae comparing apples to apples.

 

Points scored is not the main determiner of value, it is the difference in scoring within the position that needs to be compared to the other positions.

 

So, for a 12 team league that starts 1 QB and 2 RBs, you would need to compare the scoring delta between Qbs 1 and 12 to the scoring delta of RBs 1 thru 24.

 

 

If you are not going to use projected stats for the current season to do this, then I strongly suggest using a minimum of a 3 year average of the scoring, to help smooth out any outliers from using just one data set.

 

 

ETA: As to your question, that is the biggest question heading in to this year - was last year flukey for whatever reason (rule changes, lack of camp, etc.) or will we see passing numbers return closer to the norms of the last few years (defenses having time to study offenses more, full offseason, last year really was just a fluke season). Unfortunately I'm not sure there is a clear answer for that. My opinion is that passing numbers will regress a bit, but still be relatively high compared to what we were seeing 3-5 years ago. I think that we are seeing the result of the rule changes limiting the contact by the defense on receivers, etc.and so the new norm will be a trend towards greater passing numbers.

Edited August 8, 2012 by Big Country