muck Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 (edited) Been slammed this week ... and this does NOT include the impact of last night's game ... ...................... NOTE: I look at projected winning percentage to determine who makes the playoffs, not tie breakers, etc. Projected playoff teams: 13-3 TEN 12-4 PIT 10-6 NYJ 9-7 DEN 11-5 IND 10-6 MIA 12-4 CAR 12-4 NYG 10-6 MIN 9-7 ARI 10-6 TB 10-6 ATL ...................... My projected winning percentages for NE, NYJ and MIA are within 0.004 of one another... Based on previous opponents W/L %, NE has played the hardest schedule, then MIA and NYJ has played the easiest schedule (but not by much). Based on future opponents W/L %, NE has the hardest schedule, followed by NYJ and then MIA Based on future opponents average margin of victory compared to each teams' historic margin of victory, NYJ are expected to win by 4.5 points each game, NE to win by 2.9 pts and MIA by 1.2 points. ...put this in my 'statistical soup', NYJ's 'projected winning percentage' for the final two games is 0.599, MIA is 0.569 and NE is 0.568 ... which is why I put NYJ in the playoffs and the other two teams at home... NOTE: BAL's forward-looking winning percentage for the final two games is 0.600 ... which is why it beats out MIA and NE, too. ...................... Highest projected forward looking winning percentages for BOTH games coming: 0.632 TB 0.625 PIT 0.609 ATL 0.606 TEN 0.600 BAL Lowest projected forward looking winning percentages for BOTH games coming: 0.353 KC 0.325 SEA 0.313 OAK 0.276 STL 0.261 DET Highest spread between historic winning percentage and projected winning percentage: 0.261 DET 0.228 CIN 0.210 KC 0.180 GB 0.133 STL Lowest spread between historic winning percentage and projected winning percentage: -0.251 TEN -0.199 NYG -0.197 CAR -0.161 PIT -0.155 IND ...................... Projected draft order: 1-15 DET 3-13 STL 3-13 KC 3-12-1 CIN 4-12 OAK 4-12 SEA 5-11 CLE 6-10 JAX 6-10 SF 6-10 GB 7-9 BUF 7-9 SD 8-8 WAS 8-8 HOU 8-8 NO 9-7 CHI 9-6-1 PHI 10-6 DAL 10-6 NE ...................... Projected winners next week (127-81 through week 15; didn't pick week one games): DEN beats BUF NE beats ARI NYJ beats SEA MIA beats KC PIT beats TEN BAL beats DAL CIN beats CLE IND beats JAX HOU beats OAK TB beats SD CAR beats NYG PHI beats WAS GB beats CHI ATL beats MIN NO beats DET SF beats STL Edited December 21, 2008 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big John Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 According to this, GB beats CHI on the road, but loses to DET at home? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 20, 2008 Author Share Posted December 20, 2008 According to this, GB beats CHI on the road, but loses to DET at home? Here's where blending the statistics with the reality is inconsistent... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brentastic Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 It would be interesting to do something like a 'roll rate' at the end of the season using this data. In other words, you take a given week's results and compare that to previous week's projections. I'd like to know how well the early data or at what piont in the season the data projects worthwhile projectoins. Again, great work Muck!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 Projected winners next week (127-81 through week 15; didn't pick week one games):DEN beats BUF TB beats DEN DEN is in for a long day Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted December 20, 2008 Share Posted December 20, 2008 Here's where blending the statistics with the reality is inconsistent... yeah, I was also going to point out that one of the two teams from tonight's Cowboys - Ravens game would have to be in the playoffs in your scenario. Baltimore at 10-6 holds a head to head tie breaker over Miami, and Dallas at 10-6 holds a head to head tie breaker over Tampa Bay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 yeah, I was also going to point out that one of the two teams from tonight's Cowboys - Ravens game would have to be in the playoffs in your scenario. Baltimore at 10-6 holds a head to head tie breaker over Miami, and Dallas at 10-6 holds a head to head tie breaker over Tampa Bay. Well, all I project is a win/loss percentage ... and the playoff assumptions above assume the team with the highest winning percentage gets in the playoffs. The effect of my analysis is that teams end up with 'partial wins' and 'partial losses', so there are no ties. ...but, as we all know, the NFL has tie breakers because it does not have partial wins or partial losses... ...which would be an interesting development if the NFL awarded points for how many quarters you won, lost or tied when determining tie breakers...maybe something sorta like what the NFL does with wins / ties / losses getting various points which are used to see who makes the post season and who doesn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riffraff Posted December 21, 2008 Share Posted December 21, 2008 Projected winners next week (127-81 through week 15; didn't pick week one games):TB beats DET NO beats DET And DET makes it 0-16 a week early. LOL Muck, insert SD against TB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 And DET makes it 0-16 a week early. LOL Muck, insert SD against TB. TTAC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted December 21, 2008 Author Share Posted December 21, 2008 NEW: Team Power Ratings -- compare winning percentage vs. opponents winning percentage in other games (eg., if your opponents win, on average, 0.450 of the time and your winning percentage is less than 0.550, you're underperforming and will have a bad power ranking) 100.0 PIT -- 11-3 95.3 TEN -- 12-2 93.4 NYG -- 11-3 93.4 CAR -- 11-3 87.6 IND -- 10-4 85.7 BAL -- 9-5 82.9 TB -- 9-5 81.5 MIN -- 9-5 81.0 ATL -- 9-5 80.5 DAL -- 9-5 80.3 PHI -- 8-5-1 80.0 NE -- 9-5 79.1 MIA -- 9-5 77.6 NYJ -- 9-5 75.3 CHI -- 8-6 75.3 ARI -- 8-6 68.6 NOR -- 7-7 67.6 DEN -- 8-6 67.6 WAS -- 7-7 67.2 HOU -- 7-7 63.3 SD -- 6-8 61.0 GB -- 5-9 57.6 JAX -- 5-9 57.1 CLE -- 4-10 51.2 CIN -- 2-11-1 44.3 OAK -- 3-11 41.4 SEA -- 3-11 40.0 KC -- 2-12 38.6 STL -- 2-12 30.5 DET -- 0-14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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