10 Foot Pole List

[BeeR]

These guys may go higher than I'm willing to draft them but the RBBC is simply the way football is played now for the most part. Outside of a few teams, you are going to be forced into drafting a RB in a RBBC situation.

 

Oh and I liked your reasoning on most of the guys on your list.

Thx and hear you on RBBC, but I mean it's "too much" of an RBBC, ie not just sharing touches but a real chance they won't even end up w/the most carries on the team ie a 1b kinda thing. For that I'm going to spend a large chunk of change? Not w/my auction dollars I aint.

 

 

And regarding Jackson: yes, those that worried about his long TD total are indeed onto something. McNabb loved heaving it 30-40 yards, and having Jackson run under it and take it to the house. There won't nearly be as many of those this year, as the Eagles will go the short, quick-strike route much more often with the weaker-armed (but more accurate) Kolb. Jackson's receptions will be up, though, and he was indeed the red zone target of choice last year. Just don't expect as many long ones.

Yep and I think this more or less balances out so he has similar point as last year, meaning will go a bit higher than merited from what I'm seeing.

 

PS I didn't add more obvious guys like CLE QBs or SEA RBs but they're in there too. In fact league is small enough that I won't touch them no matter what.

[Capt. Stanky]

Not always (paging Seahawks21)

 

And regarding Jackson: yes, those that worried about his long TD total are indeed onto something. McNabb loved heaving it 30-40 yards, and having Jackson run under it and take it to the house. There won't nearly be as many of those this year, as the Eagles will go the short, quick-strike route much more often with the weaker-armed (but more accurate) Kolb. Jackson's receptions will be up, though, and he was indeed the red zone target of choice last year. Just don't expect as many long ones.

 

I think he still flirts with 10 TDs, but only 4-5 will be 50+yards, while the others will be the fruit of red zone targets.

 

Do you have his Redzone target numbers to back that statement up? It appears he only had 1 Redzone TD, since his other 8 TD's were over 50 yards. Personally, I think both Celek and Maclin are better redzone targets than D-Jax.

[keggerz]

Do you have his Redzone target numbers to back that statement up? It appears he only had 1 Redzone TD, since his other 8 TD's were over 50 yards. Personally, I think both Celek and Maclin are better redzone targets than D-Jax.

I might have that...give me a sec to dig

 

I don't have that stat but did some searching and found the following

 

Red Zone Targets (included rushing and receiving touches)

Celek 23

Avant 14

DJax 12

Maclin 8

RBrown 4

A Smith 2

Curtis 2

 

I didn't include the RBs since I couldn't tell what was a rush versus reception...Also, should be noted that there could be a rush attempt in the above on an end around or some such...but I doubt it.

Edited July 23, 2010 by keggerz

[Capt. Stanky]

I might have that...give me a sec to dig

 

I don't have that stat but did some searching and found the following

 

Red Zone Targets (included rushing and receiving touches)

Celek 23

Avant 14

DJax 12

Maclin 8

RBrown 4

A Smith 2

Curtis 2

 

I didn't include the RBs since I couldn't tell what was a rush versus reception...Also, should be noted that there could be a rush attempt in the above on an end around or some such...but I doubt it.

 

 

Hmmm...the #3 WR on the team had more Redzone targets than D-Jax. I think that backs up my arguement. Thanks for doing the leg work, Keggerz. Things could change this year, but based on his two seasons in the league, and the fact that he's 5'9" 175 lbs., Jackson isn't an ideal Redzone target.

[tazinib1]

Red Zone targets for Philly WR's in 2009:

 

Jason Avant: 15

D.Jackson: 13

Maclin: 10

 

I don't see Avant approaching that amount of RZ targets again this year.

[Capt. Stanky]

Red Zone targets for Philly WR's in 2009:

 

Jason Avant: 15

D.Jackson: 13

Maclin: 10

 

I don't see Avant approaching that amount of RZ targets again this year.

 

Any reasoning behind that remark, Taz? Avant has the size you would expect from a redzone target (6'0" 212 lbs). At least more so than D-Jax.

Edited July 23, 2010 by Capt. Stanky

[tazinib1]

Any reasoning behind that remark, Taz? Avant has the size your would expect from a redzone target (6'0" 212 lbs). At least more so than D-Jax.

 

Even though Avant is realistically a 1c on that team, I believe the RZ targets will go heavily in McCoy and Celek's direction this year. Of course this all really depends on who Kolb meshes with inside the 20. I just don't think it will be Avant.

[Capt. Stanky]

Even though Avant is realistically a 1c on that team, I believe the RZ targets will go heavily in McCoy and Celek's direction this year. Of course this all really depends on who Kolb meshes with inside the 20. I just don't think it will be Avant.

 

McCoy? Let me guess, you must have him on a team already

[tazinib1]

McCoy? Let me guess, you must have him on a team already

 

[keggerz]

FWIW, only 2 other TEs had more RZ targets than Celek last year....

 

Gonzo had 25 and get this.....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Olsen had 25

[BeeR]

Even though Avant is realistically a 1c on that team, I believe the RZ targets will go heavily in McCoy and Celek's direction this year. Of course this all really depends on who Kolb meshes with inside the 20. I just don't think it will be Avant.

 

The bolded part sums it up. Really there's too much unknown here.

[MrTed46]

I will not touch Jennings, Wells, Shuab, Celek.

[Capt. Stanky]

I'm surprised to see Wells on so many lists. I think he's a prime breakout candidate for this year. No Boldin or Warner means that ARI will go to a more balanced attack. I don't like Hightower stealing touches, but it became very apparent as last season wore on that Beanie is by far their best rusher. Would anyone care to elaberate on why they won't be touching Wells?

[M33ZY]

I'm surprised to see Wells on so many lists. I think he's a prime breakout candidate for this year. No Boldin or Warner means that ARI will go to a more balanced attack. I don't like Hightower stealing touches, but it became very apparent as last season wore on that Beanie is by far their best rusher. Would anyone care to elaberate on why they won't be touching Wells?

 

 

With the lack of a passing attack with Leinart at qb, I think defenses will be more prepared to look for and shut down the run.

Edited July 23, 2010 by M33ZY

[MTSuper7]

I will not touch Jennings, Wells, Shuab, Celek.

 

Wow... I would love to hear more. Celek, Jennings, and Schaub all seem like they may have nice years. Saying you won't touch them is pretty strong. Care to elaborate?

[BeeR]

I'm surprised to see Wells on so many lists. I think he's a prime breakout candidate for this year. No Boldin or Warner means that ARI will go to a more balanced attack. I don't like Hightower stealing touches, but it became very apparent as last season wore on that Beanie is by far their best rusher. Would anyone care to elaberate on why they won't be touching Wells?

Losing Warner and Boldin is huge. Even if he stays healthy all year, he'll see a fair piece of touch stolen from Hightower too. For where he's going, no thx.

[yo mama]

I'm surprised to see Wells on so many lists. I think he's a prime breakout candidate for this year. No Boldin or Warner means that ARI will go to a more balanced attack. I don't like Hightower stealing touches, but it became very apparent as last season wore on that Beanie is by far their best rusher. Would anyone care to elaberate on why they won't be touching Wells?

I'll draft him, but I'm not going to reach for him... especially in PPR leagues. Hightower is better in pass proection (which Leinhart may need), and for last year's RBs Hightower was 2nd in pass targets (80) and receptions (63). He also had 8 rushing TDs to Wells' 7. I'm sure Wells will be the primary rusher, and I'm sure that Arizona will run the ball more this year out of necessity. But its hard to reach for Wells when its clear Hightower will likely have a very significant role.

 

I think the larger issue is value. At fantasy football calculator, Wells has an ADP of 36; Hightower - 119. Overall, Hightower out-scored Wells last year... but looking just at just weeks 9 - 17 Wells scored about 12 points per game to Hightower's 10. Let's look further, shall we?

- during that span Wells got 119 rushing opportunties to Hightowers 80... but the both rushed for over 4 YPC (Hightower actually came out on top 4.7 v. 4.5 for Wells)

- Hightower was also targeted in the passing game 31 times to Wells' 10.

 

I dunno. It's not that I won't draft Wells. Its that I think Hightower provides vastly superior value in PPR leagues.

[yo mama]

Well that's different - lot of guys like that who are likely to not make my team (but again if cheap enough, very well could), like:

 

Addai - does this really need explaining

Yeah, I think it does.

 

Addai was tied for 9th in rushing TDs last year (10), same as Stewart, Gore, and Turner. Among RBs, he was 9th in pass targets (63) but 6th in receptions (51). His 3 receiving TDs tied him for 2nd most for RBs. And, at least in PPR leagues, was in the top 10 from a points-per-game perspective. Plays for a very potent offense. You can handcuff Donald Brown pretty cheaply with an ADP of 100+.

 

Addai's ADP over at FFC is 49. For a late 4th/early 5th round pick, what's not to like?

Edited July 23, 2010 by yo mama

[BeeR]

I can't speak to the round he's picked since I do auctions, but the point was someone else will take him before me. Why not me?

 

- injury prone

- in 4 yrs he barely cracked 1000 twice and not even the other two times (this despite a potent offense opening it up to say the least)

- up n coming challenger who is at worst "1b" and could easily become "1a" (he wasn't drafted Rd1 for nothing)

- plenty of other options stealing touches (esp receps)

- getting a little long in the tooth

 

No thx

Edited July 24, 2010 by BeeR

[tazinib1]

I remember drafting Addai after his rookie season and in his first game, he got injured. I let that go and again drafted him the following year. First game? Injured. I havn't touched him since and he is a very strong candidate for my 10 FPL.

[yo mama]

I can't speak to the round he's picked since I do auctions, but the point was someone else will take him before me. Why not me?

 

- injury prone

- in 4 yrs he barely cracked 1000 twice and not even the other two times (this despite a potent offense opening it up to say the least)

- up n coming challenger who is at worst "1b" and could easily become "1a" (he wasn't drafted Rd1 for nothing)

- plenty of other options stealing touches (esp receps)

- getting a little long in the tooth

 

No thx

He's only played in the NFL for 4 seasons, and he's played 15 to 16 games in three of them. And its not like IND has a bad schedule against the run. I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

[yo mama]

I remember drafting Addai after his rookie season and in his first game, he got injured. I let that go and again drafted him the following year. First game? Injured. I havn't touched him since and he is a very strong candidate for my 10 FPL.

2008 was a terrible year for Addai, no doubt.

[buddahj]

2008 was a terrible year for Addai, no doubt.

+1

That was the only year I've ever had him on any of my teams. He cost me a championship that year.

[BeeR]

He's only played in the NFL for 4 seasons, and he's played 15 to 16 games in three of them. And its not like IND has a bad schedule against the run. I guess we're just going to have to agree to disagree.

4 seasons in the NFL is longer than you think. Most players aren't exactly Favre longevity-wise to say the least. Again I said a little long in the tooth. And "playing is a game" is meaningless - you get 1 carry and bam you "played in a game." He's barely averaging over 200 carries/year and usually isn't exactly dazzling when he does - and again has Brown nipping at his heels. His recep's give him some value, but to each their own. Way too much uncertainty for me.

[Capt. Stanky]

I'll draft him, but I'm not going to reach for him... especially in PPR leagues. Hightower is better in pass proection (which Leinhart may need), and for last year's RBs Hightower was 2nd in pass targets (80) and receptions (63). He also had 8 rushing TDs to Wells' 7. I'm sure Wells will be the primary rusher, and I'm sure that Arizona will run the ball more this year out of necessity. But its hard to reach for Wells when its clear Hightower will likely have a very significant role.

 

I think the larger issue is value. At fantasy football calculator, Wells has an ADP of 36; Hightower - 119. Overall, Hightower out-scored Wells last year... but looking just at just weeks 9 - 17 Wells scored about 12 points per game to Hightower's 10. Let's look further, shall we?

- during that span Wells got 119 rushing opportunties to Hightowers 80... but the both rushed for over 4 YPC (Hightower actually came out on top 4.7 v. 4.5 for Wells)

- Hightower was also targeted in the passing game 31 times to Wells' 10.

 

I dunno. It's not that I won't draft Wells. Its that I think Hightower provides vastly superior value in PPR leagues.

 

Good points, yo mama. Thanks for bringing numbers to the table. There's no doubt that ARI will lean on the running game more. I also think that Wells gets more carries in his 2nd year, but I see what you're saying about the lack of rec. In a PPR that is a killer. With Hightower in the picture Wells probably won't be consistent enough to justify his current ADP. I will defenitly be knocking him down a few spots after reading your post. Thank you, sir