MTSuper7 Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 So I've done a LAG analysis of my main local (which I do every year), and once again, the scoring system shows that QB scoring drops off the most compared to other positions, though last year had an abnormally high top 3 average score compared to previous years. From last year, the drop from a top 3 QB to the average score of the 4-12 QB is nearly three times greater than the drop from top 3 RB to the average of the 4-12 RB. In years past, the QB drop has been at least twice as much, so in general a top tier QB is worth a lot in this league compared to the top tiers of other positions. What I'm wondering is this: How do you weigh the drop from top tier to the rest in a given position against scarcity of that position? In other words, just how much more valuable does a top tier player need to be to justify taking that position if you only start one player at that position compared to two or three starters at the other positions? Obviously if scoring was equal across positions, you would want to take top tier players at positions that have the most required starters. Is there some sort of magic cutoff point at which you can look at that drop off and say to yourself "I have to take a QB no matter what with my first pick if a top tier guy is still left"? Thanks for your thoughts... -MT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rd and schlong Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Well if you are required to start two RB, wouldn't you go from 1-24? As opposed to just the first 12? - The same would go for WR's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted July 20, 2012 Author Share Posted July 20, 2012 Well if you are required to start two RB, wouldn't you go from 1-24? As opposed to just the first 12? - The same would go for WR's. Yeah, I guess that makes sense if you are trying to determine the value drop from top tier to lowest ranking player that still is a starter (in my case, 24th best RB and 36th best WR). That being said, the drop in QB value from top tier to avg of 4-12 is still 1.5 times that of the drop from top tier RB to the avg of the 4-24th best RB. And regardless of my own league, I'm just wondering this in general... Is the correct play a straight numbers play (go with the position that has the biggest value drop no matter how close that position is to other positions)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 It is all fluid....I have no issues at all taking a player with lesser value if his tier is lean and another player/position has more value but has enough players in it to last til my next pick... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 You have to balance out what you know of your league with a LAG. You have to also decide what you believe the trade off to be - take a QB now what RB will I get next or vice-versa. QB is a weird position because it is usually very high scoring in most leagues and yet you only need one unlike RB or WR. So it depends on how long value exists in the position. What I will do is to take those two positions and see what the point differences are when I wait on one or the other. It is hard to not take a top RB because they are getting so rare and with a LAG, it will skew a bit when you have a top 3 in a position all doing better than anytime in history. I would consider them more like their scoring of 2010 for comparative purposes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted July 20, 2012 Author Share Posted July 20, 2012 Thanks for the feedback, guys... I did look at my 2010 and even 2009 LAG info and it really is quite amazing just how abnormally high the top few QBs were in scoring last year. The number of 4900+ yard (4) and 40 total TD (4) QBs last year is outrageous. There were zero QBs to score 40 or more TDs from 2008-2010. And Brees was the only one to exceed 4900 yards passing in that same timeframe (2008). So yeah, I have a feeling that we are going to see those numbers fall back down to earth. Does the lockout and lack of prep time last offseason factor into defenses struggling more to prepare? I wouldn't be surprised if that factored in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Papajohn Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 (edited) Does the lockout and lack of prep time last offseason factor into defenses struggling more to prepare? I wouldn't be surprised if that factored in. Before the 2011 season the offensive side of the ball got the most attention when the consequences of the lockout were analysed. That's for sure. That might be because offenses in general get more attention or because people/analysts really thought defenses easily could overcome the lack of preseason. With that been said, when the season started and offenses exploded in yards and TDs, the focus change to the defensive side of the ball and the general consensus was that the lockout hurt defenses more. I think there is some truth to that even if i don't really know why. Bengals defense surprised a lot of people early in the season, and I remember reading about it. They started out only having four formations because of the lockout, and then they added a little bit every week. It worked because everybody knew their assigments, which (I think) the coaches admitted they wouldn't if the entire playbook had been included. Edited July 20, 2012 by Papajohn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 I'd be extraordinarily cautious when only using 1 year's data, especially if that was a year when records were broken (like Marino's passing record by not one but 2 guys). The very best example I can think of is when P Manning had his superb year and threw for what was it - 49 TDs? The next year everyone was targeting Manning in the upper part of the 1st round, and sure enough if he didn't revert to his mean and throw for something like 28 TDs the following season (too lazy to look up exact numbers). I would consider last year's top QB number with great skepticism in terms of repeatability - especially since you're seeing such a large drop at that position with your scoring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 All reasons why I like to look at a 3 year trend for scoring and personally use all required starters within a position to factor in as my baseline. And when I say 3 year trend, I don't mean the 3 year average for the individual players, but rather the 3 year average for the #1 QB, 3 year average for the #2 Qb, etc. on down, doing the same for the other positions. This helps to smooth out the career years but not eliminate them completely. After doing that, just slot the players in based on your rankings to get a rough idea of where the fall valuewise. When doing this, you can also weight the years if you want to give more credence to the most recent year (theoretically can help account for any rule changes, etc. that may have affected scoring, etc.) Of course, depending on how much faith you have in your projections, you could just use those to determine value - but I still do a spot check against the 3 year averages to see if my projections have any major differences from the trending data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 (edited) Great posts as always by BC among others. I like using 5 years of data and trends at each position - takes about 1/2 hr using FFLM and an excel spreadsheet and is very easy to compile a lot of historical data with delineators by position and year. FFLM can be set up in about 2 minutes for any size league, any and all positions including HC, punters, and returners among all others, and any quirky scoring systems your league might have. Best of all it's a free download for all past seasons. Imports directly into mfl.com also. Edited July 20, 2012 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 20, 2012 Share Posted July 20, 2012 Great posts as always by BC among others. I like using 5 years of data and trends at each position - takes about 1/2 hr using FFLM and an excel spreadsheet and is very easy to compile a lot of historical data with delineators by position and year. FFLM can be set up in about 2 minutes for any size league, any and all positions including HC, punters, and returners among all others, and any quirky scoring systems your league might have. Best of all it's a free download for all past seasons. Imports directly into mfl.com also. For some reason I thought they stopped supporting FFLM. I'd resorted to setting up a dummy league on MFL and adjusting my settings for various leagues and exporting reports or using the Huddle Stats are with my customized scoring systems (though one of my pet peeves still has not been addressed in that section, being that while you can get results for different scoring systems, if you try to sort by anything other than the default, it resets the scoring system) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.