Thews40 Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Expecation, yes. But what about actual production. Because i keep hearing that 5 to 7 rb's fall out of top 10. so take their average actual production from the year before. QB production is much more predictable. Not to mention QB's get injured a lot less. And maybe factor in that it's easier to find wr or rb off the waiver wire vs. a QB and perhaps the equation changes. Peyton Manning's lowest game last year (WCOFF scoring) was 14.5 and the next lowest was 21.5, with an average of 30.6. Brees had one at 11.4, with an average of 26.6. Cam Newton had games at 14.1, 14.9, 9.2 and 12.7, with an average of 21.7. Rothlisberger (#8) had games of 12.6, 14.5, 15.9, 13.2, 12.6, 11.9, with an average of 20.5. The total points isn't as telling as how consistent they are. If the #8 QB is going to lose you 4 games, the peaks don't outweigh the valleys. If Peyton's stats belonged to a RB, you'd all be drafting him #1. LeSean McCoy had games of 10.4, 14.1, 10.5, with an average of 20.8. Jamaal Charles was much more consistent with a low game of 15.6 and an average of 25.5, which is still 5 points lower than Peyton. Is KC (minus a front line) going to repeat? Even if you think so, if Peyton Manning even equals last year, he's the better pick and won't lose a few games for you. If you win 166 to 120 and then lose the next week 111 to 118, you still lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Expecation, yes. But what about actual production. Because i keep hearing that 5 to 7 rb's fall out of top 10. so take their average actual production from the year before. QB production is much more predictable. Not to mention QB's get injured a lot less. And maybe factor in that it's easier to find wr or rb off the waiver wire vs. a QB and perhaps the equation changes. And because RB production can be so spotty is why it's better to get more options because the more options the better your odds of hitting are. QB production is both predictable and very replaceable, not so with RB or even WR for that matter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Expecation, yes. But what about actual production. Because i keep hearing that 5 to 7 rb's fall out of top 10. so take their average actual production from the year before. QB production is much more predictable. Not to mention QB's get injured a lot less. And maybe factor in that it's easier to find wr or rb off the waiver wire vs. a QB and perhaps the equation changes. Unfortunately I am not clairvoyant (if I was I wouldn't be wasting my time playing fantasy football), so the only thing I can base my player valuations on is EXPECTATION. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackass Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 Unfortunately I am not clairvoyant (if I was I wouldn't be wasting my time playing fantasy football), so the only thing I can base my player valuations on is EXPECTATION. well yeah. my point was more that expecation may be lower than some think. for example lets look at rb's in the 4 to 10 range last year. The expectation was maybe say 300 points going into the season based on projections (obviously vary depending on league scoring) but the actual production was much lower as players got hurt, underproduced, etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 One guy can't win a game by himself. It would be a surprise to me if Newton finishes in the top 12. You may be right, but I'd rather have P. Rivers based on value. I agree. ..I would rather have Rivers, Ben and maybe Palmer this year based on value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 One guy can't win a game by himself. It would be a surprise to me if Newton finishes in the top 12. You may be right, but I'd rather have P. Rivers based on value. Also my reasoning is smitty was at the end of his career when Cam came in and had that one good year. I know leadership has left but Tashkent isn't much different Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 well yeah. my point was more that expecation may be lower than some think. for example lets look at rb's in the 4 to 10 range last year. The expectation was maybe say 300 points going into the season based on projections (obviously vary depending on league scoring) but the actual production was much lower as players got hurt, underproduced, etc. I'm not sure about others, but I try to factor injury risk in to my projections. Therefore, injury risk is factored in when I am calculating my valuations of players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted August 14, 2014 Share Posted August 14, 2014 I'm not sure about others, but I try to factor injury risk in to my projections. Therefore, injury risk is factored in when I am calculating my valuations of players. Definitely. .. that is why I usually rank Stafford lower than I really want. .. if healthy he throws over 5k this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrimsonGhost Posted August 15, 2014 Share Posted August 15, 2014 I have pick 8 this year. I have never gone anything but RB in the first rd. Last year I had pick 8 and went with Trent. I just think that picks 8-12 you are better off locking up a top player at their position vs taking the 6th best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighKite Posted August 16, 2014 Share Posted August 16, 2014 I've never been a fan of taking a QB early (first or second round), but I decided to do some research a little into my main yearly redraft.. 10 teams, PPR, 6 point passing TD's, 1 point for 20 yards passing. What I found kind of goes against taking a QB early. I went 4 years back.. 2013: League champion (drafted Peyton Manning - 7th overall pick in our league) 2012: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 4th overall pick in our league) 2011: League champion (drafted Drew Brees - 9th overall pick in our league) 2010: League champion (drafted Tom Brady - 10th overall pick in our league) So.. Maybe this is a small sample size, but for the past 4 years, the league champion had selected a QB with his 1st overall selection. The reason I decided to look into this is cause I'm the lucky winner of the 10th overall selection. I'm toying with the idea of taking Brees if he's available there. I know Manning wont because the guy with the 5th overall pick is a Donkey's die hard and has the worlds biggest man crush on him. I've been in this league for 13 years now and we all know what we're doing. Those iffy/questionable picks generally don't start happening till round 5-6ish. I am one of the old school RB/RB guys with my first two picks, but looking over the past few years, that strategy doesn't win championships. I can't see passing him up - on top of having (on paper) one of the league's best schedules for a QB. This really isn't one of those cheesey "who should I take" threads, but one to play devils advocate to the guys (who, like me up until this year) are VERY against taking a QB in the 1st round.. In my leagues it seems to always be that guy who drafted a RB late that played like a 1st rounder that wins. last year I noticed a pattern of Knowshon Moreno owners winning championships in the leagues I was in. and not in 1 league did the Peyton Manning winner win the league. matter of fact the teams he was on in my leagues for the most part ended up with more losing records than winning records. my personal opinion to that is many people who took him that high made alot of other ( what I would call bad picks) picks which overcame them lucking into Mannings stats last year. Of course we can probably all find something different in the pattern of our leagues. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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