Week 4 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

I'm getting more and more excited as my system is about to ramp up into full effect. First, update on my personal record:

 

Posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Fav: KC (Bought this to -2.5, knowing points would be at a premium in this one)

Dogs: Dal, Ten, GB (All 3 dogs won outright)

 

Brings my overall wagers record to 11-1, w/ total posted picks 14-2.

 

Now, I set up my system and ran it for this weekend's games. I have 3 systems to pick ATS, and 2 systems to do U/O (2 for Unders, 2 for Overs).

 

My primary ATS generator stated 5 games last week: GB, NE, Pit, Was, Ten. Those teams went 4-1 ATS. My other 2 ATS generators did not do as well, but neither was below 50%.

 

My O/U generators seemed to be on point though. For my 2 overs generators:

 

One went 6-0-1. My other one went 3-0. (On leans they went 8-1 and 5-6 respectively).

 

For my 2 unders generators:

 

One went 7-0-1. My other one had only 1 selection, and that was Under last night, which pushed. (On leans they went 12-2 and 9-2 respectively).

 

I'll run them later this week and see what I'm looking at for next weekend. I'm hoping my other 2 ATS generators get back to business. I like that my main one went 4-1, but I expect more than 3-2 or 2-2, which is what the other 2 produced. This thing won't win every week, but it's record was very solid last season.

 

I'm doing pretty well without it though (11-1 so far this year), so we'll see where we go from here.

[Menudo]

I am the Swammi thinks the Eagles are the 'play of the week'

 

 

[Steeltown Dre]

Teams that are 3-0 ATS:

Dallas

Green Bay

New England

Pittsburgh

Houston

Tennessee

Arizona

 

Teams that are 0-3 ATS:

Baltimore

Denver

Chicago

New Orleans

St. Louis

[Steeltown Dre]

Teams that start the season 0-3 ATS are 18-17-2 ATS in their 4th game. However, when that 4th game is on the road, they are 13-5 ATS. Such is the case for Baltimore, Denver, Chicago and St. Louis this week.

 

Teams that start the season 3-0 ATS are 22-19-2 ATS in their 4th game. When their 4th game is on the road, they are 12-9-2 ATS. Such is the case for Green Bay, Pittsburgh and New England this week.

 

Bottom line of this look: No need to fade or ride teams that are great or terrible ATS. Play them as you would. Don't fade GB, Pitt, NE just because you think they'll "Fall back to Earth" with a failure to cover the spread, and don't play on Bal, Den, Chi or St. Louis just because you think "They are Due" for an ATS cover.

[The Wolf]

Dre, I am not a big gambler. Think I placed ten bets in the last 37 years, most of which were on college basketball during the 2004-2005 season.

 

Any how, if someone wanted to make things interesting one week, is it incorrect to make just one bet, be it over/under, ATS, etc? If you were to make only one bet on any given week, what is the best way to go?

[Jackass]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

I'm getting more and more excited as my system is about to ramp up into full effect. First, update on my personal record:

 

Posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Fav: KC (Bought this to -2.5, knowing points would be at a premium in this one)

Dogs: Dal, Ten, GB (All 3 dogs won outright)

 

Brings my overall wagers record to 11-1, w/ total posted picks 14-2.

 

Now, I set up my system and ran it for this weekend's games. I have 3 systems to pick ATS, and 2 systems to do U/O (2 for Unders, 2 for Overs).

 

My primary ATS generator stated 5 games last week: GB, NE, Pit, Was, Ten. Those teams went 4-1 ATS. My other 2 ATS generators did not do as well, but neither was below 50%.

 

My O/U generators seemed to be on point though. For my 2 overs generators:

 

One went 6-0-1. My other one went 3-0. (On leans they went 8-1 and 5-6 respectively).

 

For my 2 unders generators:

 

One went 7-0-1. My other one had only 1 selection, and that was Under last night, which pushed. (On leans they went 12-2 and 9-2 respectively).

 

I'll run them later this week and see what I'm looking at for next weekend. I'm hoping my other 2 ATS generators get back to business. I like that my main one went 4-1, but I expect more than 3-2 or 2-2, which is what the other 2 produced. This thing won't win every week, but it's record was very solid last season.

 

I'm doing pretty well without it though (11-1 so far this year), so we'll see where we go from here.

 

 

Damn, that's pretty good. I think i may quit my job and just piggyback your picks.

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre, I am not a big gambler. Think I placed ten bets in the last 37 years, most of which were on college basketball during the 2004-2005 season.

 

Any how, if someone wanted to make things interesting one week, is it incorrect to make just one bet, be it over/under, ATS, etc? If you were to make only one bet on any given week, what is the best way to go?

 

Certainly not. If you have one game you like, take that game. You don't have to place 3 or 5 or 10 bets. Personally I try to stick to around 3-5 range per week. I'm not an action player. If my typical play is X units, I will usually play right around X Units or up to 1.5 times X Units. I'm not a guy who will bet X units on some plays, and 10% of X units on others, just for some "action".

 

Back to your question, historically since 1990, Underdogs have hit better than favorites (51.7%) and Unders have hit better than overs (50.8%). To win in the NFL you have to hit 52.4% of your plays w/ standard -110 juice. So if you only make 1 play a week, you've got 14 weeks left in the regular season. You have to hit at least 8 of them to win money, as long as you are playing the same amount on each game and same juice.

 

As for which play: side or total, that's up to you. I'd pick the best game on the board that gives you the most value. Sometimes it is a total, sometimes it is a side. Like I said, I don't pick a certain number of games to play. If I only see 1 game that has value, I'll play that 1 game. If I see 5, I'll play 5. I play when I see value, when I think I can win, when I think I may have a better view of the game than the general public. Be it because of stats or most of the times, knowing when to play a certain team and when not to.

 

I wish you luck w/ your play. I'd toss some ideas out there - there's smart guys here who can help you out w/ feeling through them. Or, if you think you've got a winner, let us know what you're on.

[i_am_the_swammi]

I am the Swammi thinks the Eagles are the 'play of the week'

 

[mbarton11]

So dre who are your picks this week. I am liking dallas, Indy,

[Crazysight]

The lines are starting to look worse to me, so I think this will be my final bet of the season. I'm going for New England (-7.5) again this week against a Cincinatti defense that gave up 5 touchdown passes to Derek Anderson 2 weeks ago and a Cincinatti offense that will be without one its greatest playmakers, Rudi Johson. I don't think homefield makes a significant difference in Cincinatti, either.

[rattsass]

AZ +6

Det +3

GB -2

 

Edit add: Oh yeah, also Texans -3, that is the game I am focused on.

 

Also like Raiders +4 but not betting it.

Edited September 29, 2007 by rattsass

[Menudo]

My 3 team, 10 point teaser this week:

 

Cowboys (-3.5)

Chargers (-2)

Colts (Pick'em)

 

The cheating, running up the score bastages, also known as the New England Patriots, kept me from going to 3-0 on these bets last week.

[Gdawg]

MIN +2, DET +3, SEA -2

 

Good luck guys, I have softball in the morning but I'll be back to check in before the games start off!

[STL Fan]

I was out of town all week training for work (man, that's a lot of PowerPoint) and had little access to the web. But, did I have a great week last week. Placed 4 bets

 

Indy -6 = push

 

Tennessee +4 =winner

 

Teaser

Indy +1 = winner

Pittsburgh - 2.5 = winner

Cle Oak O 32.5 = winner

 

Parlay

TB-4 = winner

TEN + 4 = winner

KC - 3 = push (Got paid on a two-team parlay)

 

The pushes suck, but I cashed 3 of four tickets and didn't lose a dime. I'll probably get humbled again this week, but this is about celebrating small victories, right?

 

Anyway, as others have stated I'm also playing Dallas, Tennessee, GB and AZ in various formulations.

 

Good luck everyone!

[Steeltown Dre]

First I'll share the system plays. The totals did great last week. Here's what they are this week:

 

Totals System 1:

Chi/Det Under

KC/SD Under

Bal/Cle Over

 

Totals System 2:

Chi/Det Under

NYJ/Buf Under

Sea/SF Under

KC/SD Under

Ind/Den Under

Bal/Cle Over

Pit/Ari Over

NE/Cin Over

 

Those are the "High Level Bet" games. It's picking a lot of games to play right now, so we'll see what happens. I'm waiting until one more week of data before I ride multiple games, but I may take one or two this week.

 

As for Spread picks, here we go:

 

System 1:

Dal

 

This system went 5-1 last week. I won't take such a large fav typically, so this game is a no play for me.

 

System 2:

Oak

GB

StL

TB

Pit

KC

Den

 

Now, this system only went 2-2 last week. I'm not playing this system this week, I'll give it another week to sort some things out....

 

As for my plays this week:

 

DET

CLE

 

A lot of people are on MIN, some good cappers. I'm taking them as well, but I'm not as confident as many in this pick. I will give you a piece of advice if you take MIN. You might as well take them ML. The reason?

 

Since 1989, teams that were 1 point dogs went 87-76-3 ATS. SU they went 87-79. That means if you would have played all underdogs on the ML, you would have only lost 3 games out of 166 that you would have pushed if you took the points. Which is only 1.8%. You make much more in juice in the long run than you would pushing 1.8% of those games.

 

If you get them at +2: Teams that were +1, +1.5 or +2 went 254-246-5 ATS and 247-258 SU. That means you would have lost 7 out of 505 games that you would have won or pushed if you took the points. That is only 1.4%. And as above, you make MUCH MUCH more in taking the ML in those games than you would by the fact that you lose 1 or 2 games a season.

 

The bottom line is making money in the long and short run. While you may lose 1 game this week if GB wins by 1 or 2 points, in the long run you'll be making money. You would already be up on the season, as in week 1 Car was a 1 point dog in STL and won, and Det was a 2 point dog in Oak and won. No other games until this week featured a 1 or 2 point dog. This week you've got Min and SF. So leave points and take the team.

 

Higher spreads than that, and I always recommend taking the points. But in this situation, history tells us it's better profit to take the team. (I'm planning an article about buying points once I have time to do it.)

 

And then a couple of my totals.

 

Good luck today guys.

[Steeltown Dre]

Anyway, as others have stated I'm also playing Dallas, Tennessee, GB and AZ in various formulations.

 

Not playing this week. That Pit/AZ game should be a good one. Looking foward to watching it. Good luck.

[STL Fan]

Not playing this week. That Pit/AZ game should be a good one. Looking foward to watching it. Good luck.

 

That was supposed to say "Texans"

 

Really inspires confidence, huh?

[rattsass]

AZ +6

Det +3

GB -2

 

Edit add: Oh yeah, also Texans -3, that is the game I am focused on.

 

Also like Raiders +4 but not betting it.

 

Well, even though I missed on the Texans, that is a good looking card there. Looks like Dre hit 2-2 also. Man, people should be paying us for this advice!!

 

Just thought I would note that the spread for the Monday night game is getting a lot of action apparently. Spread opened at 6.5 - 7 and has moved a full 2 points to 9. The over/under has been getting pounded on the over side as well. All the way up to 54 now.

 

I wasn't really looking at betting this game, but I am intrigued by how much money is riding on the Pats and the Over, and thinking, is every book going to take a beating on this Monday Night game. Are all of the gamblers going to get an easy "get back" get ouf jail free card with this game?

 

I can't figure out how the Bengals can pull it off, but I am definitely looking hard at this game right now. Anybody think the Bengals have a prayer? Even at +9??

[Mojo Rising]

Just got it at 54.5 and pats -9.5.....keeps moving!

 

Everyone I've talked to, took a beating this week......including me.

 

Rattsass, you thinking of playing cinci plus the points?

 

Dre, playing tonight?

 

I loved the pats and the over, but the rise scares me a bit.

[rattsass]

Just got it at 54.5 and pats -9.5.....keeps moving!

 

Everyone I've talked to, took a beating this week......including me.

 

Rattsass, you thinking of playing cinci plus the points?

 

Dre, playing tonight?

 

I loved the pats and the over, but the rise scares me a bit.

No, I took the over at 54 smallish. I am really tempted to take the points but just can't convince myself.

[Steeltown Dre]

As for my plays this week:

 

DET

CLE

 

A lot of people are on MIN, some good cappers. I'm taking them as well, but I'm not as confident as many in this pick.

 

And then a couple of my totals.

 

I went 2-1 on those picks. Wasn't liking MIN and now I know why. I also played 1 total, not 2, and took the over in Bal/Cle. It was in both systems and won, but just barely. But a win is a win.

 

That brings my record this week to 3-1.

 

As for a recap on my systems.

 

My best ATS system went 1-0, winning w/ Dallas. That system looks pretty locked in, and is 5-1 the past 2 weeks. My other system is still not tracking well, going 4-3 this week, 6-5 overall.

 

As for totals: My one system went 1-2, and the other went 4-4. Far cry from what it did in week 3, when my second system was undefeated. Still, my best Overs system is 9-1 on the season.

 

I'll post up my plays for next week sometime mid week.

 

As for tonight, I'm not playing the game - don't see much of an edge either way. Obviously impressed w/ the Pats, and unimpressed w/ the Bengals. But that's thru 3 weeks, will it show itself tonight is the question? My Overs system that is 9-1 on the season showed a predicted final score of 65 points, and recommended the over. Still, I'm not taking the Over, I'm just passing along the info and we'll lsee what happens.

 

73% of ATS is on NE, and so is 65% of the ML.

[Crazysight]

The lines are starting to look worse to me, so I think this will be my final bet of the season. I'm going for New England (-7.5) again this week against a Cincinatti defense that gave up 5 touchdown passes to Derek Anderson 2 weeks ago and a Cincinatti offense that will be without one its greatest playmakers, Rudi Johson. I don't think homefield makes a significant difference in Cincinatti, either.

 

That's a perfect 4 for 4 with my "Picks of the week" this year.

[STL Fan]

That's a perfect 4 for 4 with my "Picks of the week" this year.

 

Awesome! Love having lots of input. I cashed three of four again this week, losing only with the damn Texans. Trying not to gloat, that always bites me in the azz.

[Mojo Rising]

The lines are starting to look worse to me, so I think this will be my final bet of the season. I'm going for New England (-7.5) again this week against a Cincinatti defense that gave up 5 touchdown passes to Derek Anderson 2 weeks ago and a Cincinatti offense that will be without one its greatest playmakers, Rudi Johson. I don't think homefield makes a significant difference in Cincinatti, either.

 

So thats it, no more wagers for you for the entire season?

 

I wish I had your self control, week 5 is way to early for me to say statements like that.

[Crazysight]

Yeah...I know I wrote that, BUT.....

 

I think that was kind of something I said to make myself feel better last week. I will at least cash out my original money plus an extra 50 bucks, and then I will probably keep going with my winnings for a little while longer.

Edited October 2, 2007 by Crazysight