keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) Yeah the NFL and RB position in general is a young man's game but that isn't always the case. 80% of the past 20 seasons have had one or more running back age 28 or older rank top 5 in rushing. The following numbers are based on the last 20 seasons: 24%(57 of 240) of the top 12 rushers were age 28 or older 24%(24 of 100) of the top 5 rushers for those 20 years were age 28 or older. 35% (7 of 20) of the time the rushing title winner was age 28 or older. *The following statement is just an assumption as I didn't do the research to verify it but I am sure most will agree it is a safe assumption* What makes this even more astonishing is the smaller number of 28+ yo running backs that will carry the ball versus the younger backs in the league. I would like to be able to say that X% of all 28+ yo rushers will rank in the top 12 or top 5 but mining that data would take much more time than I have right now. I would however bet that the 28+ yo running backs that are the main runners for their teams have an extremely high % of making the top 12 and top 5 1993 was the only year that didn't see a 28+ yo running back rank in the top 12 rushers 1992, 1993, 1994 & 1995 were the only years without a top 5 rusher aged 28+. Sure the top rushers are made up mainly of young guys but this does show that you can't ignore the "older" running back. Some of the 28+ year old running backs for 2009 (Alphabetical) Larry Johnson Thomas Jones Willis McGahee Willie Parker Clinton Portis Ladanian Tomlinson Derrick Ward Brian Westbrook For those wanting to put the likes of LT and Portis out to pasture might want to rethink their position just a bit. Edited July 27, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) I assume you mean "top 12"? Still a great number and solid info. no, i dont mean top 12...i meant TOP 5 in 16 of the previous 20 seasons there have been at least 1 or more 28+ year old running back rank in the top 5 of rushers Edited July 27, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Ernie McCracken Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Yeah the NFL and RB position in general is a young man's game but that isn't always the case. 80% of the past 20 seasons have had running back(s) age 28 or older rank top 5 in rushing. Is it running backs or running back. If it's running back, then that's 16 players in the last 20 years and probably a couple times it was the same player from year to year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 20 seasons is a useful time frame, but what's the distribution over those years? Has it shifted noticeably to younger players? Cuz there was only two RBs last year 28+ (LT and Thomas Jones) that finished in the top 12. Jamal Lewis and Westbrook finshsed 16 and 18 respectively. Was last year an anomaly or part of a new trend? Over the past 20 years: Top 12 rushers 28+ yo 89 5 90 2 91 3 92 1 93 0 94 1 95 2 96 3 97 3 98 3 99 2 00 3 01 5 02 2 03 3 04 4 05 3 06 4 07 6 08 2 Top 5 rushers 28+ yo 89 2 90 1 91 1 92 0 93 0 94 0 95 0 96 1 97 1 98 2 99 1 00 1 01 3 02 1 03 0 04 3 05 2 06 1 07 3 08 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Is it running backs or running back. If it's running back, then that's 16 players in the last 20 years and probably a couple times it was the same player from year to year. I am not talking about individual players....each year there are 12 top rushers...12 x 20 years = 240 top 12 performances...top 5 x 20 years=100 top 5 performances...top rusher x 20 = 20 top rushers It doesn't matter if a particular running back does it multiple times...it is strictly based on age each year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 Is it running backs or running back. If it's running back, then that's 16 players in the last 20 years and probably a couple times it was the same player from year to year. I edited this sentence: 80% of the past 20 seasons have had running back(s) age 28 or older rank top 5 in rushing. to this: 80% of the past 20 seasons have had one or more running back age 28 or older rank top 5 in rushing. that sentence was to indicate that there was one or more age 28 that ranked in the top 5 so that is why I edited it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 sorry, I mis-read what you said np Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) sorry, took me a while to get a handle on this thread. You should provide a clear, concise summary for idiots like me. What you're saying is, "it's rediculous to dismiss a RB strictly cuz of his age." Is that correct? EDIT: Also, any older RB who is the featured, established runner for his team has a very good chance of continuing his success. What I am saying is that don't be surprised when older guys produce....with that I assume(didnt do the research) that for that to happen it has to be a RB that is the featured, established runner for his team...Players like LT, Portis and Westbrook fall into that description. However, with Westbrook and the Eagles offense I think it is a stretch to think Westy would end up in the top 12 in rushing(yeah he did it before)....the reason I only did rushing was because that was the easiest way I could process the numbers easily...here is where I got them http://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2008/rushing.htm once at that link I would click on yards to have it sorted by yards....unfortunately if you do combined yards it picks up WRs and sorting thru all of that would be far to time consuming (at least right now for me) edit: if and when I have the time I will try and do this for total yards(rushing/recvng) Edited July 27, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 I'd be a little more interested to see how many of those went on to be top 5 rushers the NEXT season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 I'd be a little more interested to see how many of those went on to be top 5 rushers the NEXT season. i wonder in general how many top 5 rushers repeated disregarding age completely Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 I'd be a little more interested to see how many of those went on to be top 5 rushers the NEXT season. stay tuned I am going to do it real quick Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 (edited) 1st since this is for the past 20 years I think it is fair to say that Dickerson ranked 3rd in 89 at the age of 29 and he ranked(1st in 86, 2 in 87 & 1st in 88)....he was the only one from the 89 class that ranked in the top 5 in the previous year so that is why I looked to see how many consecutive years he was top 5.... 16 Players have ranked in the top 5 for consecutive years: Name(consecutive years, total top 5's) Eric Dickerson(86-89)4 Ernest Byner(90-91) Chris Warren(94-95) Barry Sanders(89-98) Emmitt Smith(91-95, 98-99) Thurman Thomas(90-93) Jerome Bettis(96-97, plus was top 5 in 93) Eddie George(96-97 plus was top 5 in 00) Terrell Davis(96-98) Priest Holmes(01-02) Ladanian Tomlinson(02-03, 06-07) Tiki Barber(04-06) Larry Johnson(05-06) Shaun Alexander(04-05) Adrian Peterson(07-08) Sanders was in the top 5 for 10 consecutive years Sanders ranked 1st overall 4 times(twice consecutively at the ages of 28 & 29) Emmitt was in the top 5 for 7 seasons(five consecutive times and then twice in a row ages 29 & 30) Emmitt ranked 1st overall 4 times (3 times in a row) Thurman Thomas was in the top 5 4 times (all consecutively) Curtis Martin was in the top 5 four times (never consecutively) Curtis Martin ranked 1st overall once(over 28) and ranked in the top 5 twice at age 28+ Jerome Bettis was in the top 5 three times (two years in a row) Eddie George was in the top 5 three times (two years in a row) Terrell Davis was in the top 5 three times (three years in a row) Terrell Davis ranked 1st overall once. Marshall Faulk was in the top 5 three times (never consecutively) Clinton Portis was in the top 5 four times (never consecutively) Edge was in the top 5 four times (twice consecutively ranking 1st overall each time) Priest Holmes ranked in the top 5 twice (28+ each year) LT ranked in the top 5 four times (two times doing it twice in a row with the last one being at age 28) Tiki ranked in the top 5 three times (all consecutive and at ages 29-31) Larry Johnson twice(consecutively) SAlexander twice (consecutively and the 2nd time was at age 28) Stephen Davis, Dillon, Ahman Green and Jamal Lewis all made it into the top 5 twice and never in consecutive years AP has made the top 5 the last two consecutive seasons. Chris Warren made the top 5 twice (consecutively) Byner made the top 5 twice (consecutively, last time was 28+) Feel free to let me know if I made any errors. Edited July 27, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt770 Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 I like Portis, he's still in his prime and has plenty of life left in those legs. I read somewhere that Zorn wants to give him the ball at least 30 times per game, regardless of the score or situation. That might be a good topic for its own thread. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 I've seen countless RB's over the age of 28 produce great numbers. That isn't on debate. I think the issue is that once a RB reaches that age, or possibly a certain amount of carries, you have to temper expecations a tad. I know I will be dropping players like Portis and LT a bit just for the sheer amount of carries they've had in their career. That's not to say they won't out play where I would draft them, but you don't want to get stuck with an older RB on the year they start really declining. Great stats as usual, keggerz. Thanks for disproving popular opinion once again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kcmast Posted July 27, 2009 Share Posted July 27, 2009 Nice post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 27, 2009 Author Share Posted July 27, 2009 I've seen countless RB's over the age of 28 produce great numbers. That isn't on debate. I think the issue is that once a RB reaches that age, or possibly a certain amount of carries, you have to temper expecations a tad. I know I will be dropping players like Portis and LT a bit just for the sheer amount of carries they've had in their career. That's not to say they won't out play where I would draft them, but you don't want to get stuck with an older RB on the year they start really declining. Great stats as usual, keggerz. Thanks for disproving popular opinion once again. Nice post Thanks guys but I am not really sure what the numbers say other than Sanders and Emmitt were FF Gods. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 Another tidbit on the 28+ yo RBs.... over the past 20 years there have been 138 instances where a RB has carried the ball 300+ times in the regular season. RBs aged 28+ accounted for 35 of those instances(for those that are mathematically challenged that is 25%). I think we might be starting to see a trend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted July 28, 2009 Author Share Posted July 28, 2009 It'd be interesting to know what percentage of league starting RBs were 28+. if I can figure out how to pull the data to make it easier to sort I might be able to give you an idea someday...but for now everything you are getting is because I mined the numbers by hand, believe it or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted July 28, 2009 Share Posted July 28, 2009 (edited) if I can figure out how to pull the data to make it easier to sort I might be able to give you an idea someday...but for now everything you are getting is because I mined the numbers by hand, believe it or not. I do believe that it was a hand job. :rimshot: Edited July 28, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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