HUGE Trade - deadline tomorrow!

[mls13]

The #1 team in my league has just offered me a blockbuster. He's locked up a playoff spot and has pretty much run away with the league. I'm in 5th place, top 6 teams make the playoffs, I need to fight to stay alive here. Playoffs start next week.

 

I give: Edge, Harrison, Branch

I get: Julius Jones, Steve Smith, TJ Housh

 

I am very tempted to pull the trigger here. While Jones is no Edge, I have been worried about the Colts locking things up and benching their studs early, but I'm not sure how soon that could be. That could be the tipping point in this trade. What do you think?

Edited December 1, 2005 by mls13

[tonorator]

well, you have to think that indy will lock this up in the next 1-2 weeks, so it is likely that edge especially will get some rest down the stretch. of major importance is when your super bowl is ... if it is week 16, then this is a hard deal to swallow. if it is week 17, it is easier because edge would surely be sitting for most of the game.

 

the problem you have to consider is losing edge now and how that will impact your first few playoff games. i would not want to sacrifice this and end up watching your players that got you into the playoffs go on to help another team move forward.

 

i'd keep what you have and deal with whatever happens.

[cdrudge]

well, you have to think that indy will lock this up in the next 1-2 weeks, so it is likely that edge especially will get some rest down the stretch.

Indy won't lock up HF until the number of Denver losses is equal to or is greater then the number of weeks remaining plus the number of Indy losses. So in other words, if Indy continues to win (which they likely will at least the next 2-3 weeks and Denver also continues to win (also likely but KC this week is a ?), then Indy will keep playing. So that basically leaves week 16 in doubt. Edge will play at least until then.

 

I wouldn't do it...except week 16 would worry me. Can you survive on the strength of the rest of your lineup that week? If so, I probably wouldn't.

[craiginthecapital]

Indy won't lock up HF until the number of Denver losses is equal to or is greater then the number of weeks remaining plus the number of Indy losses.  So in other words, if Indy continues to win (which they likely will at least the next 2-3 weeks and Denver also continues to win (also likely but KC this week is a ?), then Indy will keep playing.  So that basically leaves week 16 in doubt.  Edge will play at least until then.

 

I wouldn't do it...except week 16 would worry me.  Can you survive on the strength of the rest of your lineup that week? If so, I probably wouldn't.

 

1185096[/snapback]

 

 

 

I agree with most of this. Denver is the key to figuring it out, but it also depends who the Colts and Broncos lose to. Think about this: let's say the Broncos win out, thereby finishing with a perfect Divisional record of 6-0. If the Colts lose two games, one of which to Jax or Ten, that means the Broncos take the #1 seed on the tie-break.

 

Or the flip side: Indy has two games remaining against division foes, while the Broncos have three. Of these, the Broncos have the stiffer competition (@ KC and @ San Diego -- I don't consider Oakland at home competition). Problem is SD is week 17. If the Broncos lose to KC (which they shouldn't) and the Colts destroy TN at home (which they should), the Colts breathe easier and sit sooner -- they only need to win week 14 to lock up the top spot and you can count of people sitting starting in week 15, and almost definitely during week 16 (Dungy's not going to put Edge out there @ SEA unless he has to, especially considering SEA may already be sitting Alexander by that point.

 

All in all, I think this is a pretty good deal for you. You're getting two serious point makers (Smith and HJ) that are going to have to play full tilt all the way to the post-season. At the same time, you're giving up two people that, while potentially bigger play-makers, are guarantee to sit at some point, the only question is when. Branch and Julius are secondary here. Julius is on the way back and Dallas is going to have to run him a lot from here on out, but given his season to date, who knows what happens. There's an outside chance history repeats itself and Jones comes alive to finish the season, but I'm not holding my breath (and I have to start the guy opposite Edge).

 

The final nail in the coffin for me is this: you're not in a keeper league, and you clearly don't feel you can win with what you have. So, stir it up, roll the dice, take the chance...however you want to say it, but do something to try and give yourself a better chance. If it doesn't work, you're no worse off that you already think you are.