Mock Drafts

[fantasyfanatic]

I have been playing for only 5 seasons and still I learn new things. Please read to the end and comment.

 

I have looked at Mock drafts every year to try and guage where players values are. I have never conducted one of my own though until today, I did it twice. I would be interested in everyones comments.

 

I am in a 12 team keeper league. We can keep 3 players (1qb,1rb and 1wr) and we have to keep 2 players. Teams with 2 keepers enter a suplimental round prior to the first round. I put a trade through this year and gave up my third round pick for the other teams 4th round pick and we swapped players. Thus the reason I conducted the Mock draft today was to see what kind of players would be available to me in the 4th and 5th rounds. In the first Mock I picked a RB with my sup pick and WR and WR in rounds 1 and 2. In the end (according to my scoring format) I had the second best draft in the league. The second time I went with RB in the sup round and RB in the first round and WR in the 2nd round. When that one was over I had the 7th best draft in the league. I have always drafted by the second Mock draft (RB,RB,WR). I seem to yeild a competitve team every year but I have not make it to the championship game yet. Is there any one out there that gets constant success by drafting the top WR's while everyone else is drafting back up running backs? What is your best draft stragety?

[Big Country]

Here is a copy of a post I just made in litdog's thread:

 

In looking at the 10-team mocks that were done, it is probably safer to go RB-RB and fill in with mid level WRs, but that likely won't build a championship caliber team as you are getting the late end of the RB run and the late end of the WR run. Going RB and WR with a Steve Smith or Chad Johnson type guy gives you a leg up on the #1 WR spot, and then for a #2 RB a guy like Chester Taylor, Julus Jones, Kevin Jones, Reuben Droughns as your #2 RB.

 

Going that route you get a very good RB1, a top notch WR1 and solid RB2 and WR2. Going RB-RB you don't end up with any top notch talent at any positon, but you are a bit safer at RB, which it sounds is very important to you.

 

The key is going for best available, not sticking to some pre-planned positional strategy.

 

What you are seeing is that by always going RB-RB-WR you end up with a solid team, but generally not a championship caliber team. THis is because oftentimes, particularly if you pick in the late middle part of the first round, you can get a solid RB1, a decent RB 2 then a decent WR1 by going safe with the RB-RB-WR plan. But, if you compare the RB/WR combo you can get in the 2nd and 3rd round picks by going each way, many times it would work out to be better to get a top level WR and sill get a decent RB2.

 

THere is a saying, it is better to start runs rather than end runs. By going RB/RB, you are picking from the bottom of that 2nd RB tier in the 2nd round while you could pick from the top of the top tier WRs and still get an RB from the top of the 3rd tier of RBs.

 

This is a debate I am currently having with my teammates for WCOFF. We have the 6th pick, and based on what we saw at the drafts last year, many leagues had as many as 22 RBs going in the first two rounds. We are debating the whole 2nd/3rd round strategy right now as we feel that will be the key decision to our team's success, and with $100K on the line, it is that much more nerve racking.

[tomfin2000]

 

What you are seeing is that by always going RB-RB-WR you end up with a solid team, but generally not a championship caliber team.

 

There is a saying, it is better to start runs rather than end runs. By going RB/RB, you are picking from the bottom of that 2nd RB tier in the 2nd round while you could pick from the top of the top tier WRs and still get an RB from the top of the 3rd tier of RBs.

 

I agree with these two statements 100%, especially this season. I've done at least a dozen 12 team mock drafts the past two weeks and here's what I'm seeing:

 

There is a big dropoff in perceived value after the first 11 RBs:

 

L. Johnson

S. Alexander

L. Tomlinson

C. Portis

T. Barber

E. James

R. Johnson

L. Jordan

S. Jackson

R. Brown

C. Williams

 

Out of those 11 backs, only the first 7 have more than one season as a starter under their belt. Look no further than last year and Julius and Kevin Jones to get an idea of the kind of risk associated with players in those situations.

 

So when picking near the bottom of the round (be it a 10 team or a 12 team league) why not look at the proven studs at other positions like Manning and the Tier 1 WRs? There's so much uncertainty in the league this season that you can still come back at the 3/4 swing and often get a pair of backs out of a pool of guys like Willie Parker, Tatum Bell, Chester Taylor, DeShaun Foster, Dominick Rhodes, Jamal Lewis, Ahman Green, Duece McAllister, and the rookies like Addai and D'Angelo Williams. I realize the upside isn't there, but are these guys that much more of risk than some of the 2nd year starters going in the first round?

 

Personally, I'd rather have a couple of gamebreakers like Manning, Smith, Owens, Holt, etc. and then roll the dice in the 3rd and 4th round on RBs. Otherwise, like Big Country said, you end up with a pair of backs that are either at the bottom of Tier 2 or the top of Tier 3, a pair of mid to lower Tier 2 WRs, a Tier 2 QB, and a Tier 2 TE. In other words, solid starters, but NO studs. That's just not going to cut it in a competitive league.

Edited July 21, 2006 by tomfin2000