This is what really sucks

[muck]

Does anyone care that Boise State is still undefeated and, if the run the table, will almost assuredly find themselves in contention for a BCS bid, too because so many teams in front of them will knock each other off?

[muck]

For RU to play for the National Championship (i.e., they win out), we look at the remaining schedules:

 

1. Ohio State (vs. Michigan)

2. Michigan (at Ohio State)

3. USC (vs. Cal, vs. Notre Dame, vs. UCLA)

4. Florida (vs. Western Carolina, at Florida State) ... plus SEC title game

5. Notre Dame (at Army, at USC)

6. Rutgers (vs. Cincinnati, vs. Syracuse, at West Virginia)

 

So, the loser of the Michigan / Ohio State game has a pretty decent shot of dropping below RU ... USC will need to lose at least one game, Florida will need to lose at least one game and Notre Dame will need to lose at least one game.

 

So, the most likely way this happens is if USC beats ND, but they lose to either Cal or UCLA ... and Florida loses the SEC title game.

 

IMO, the only way Rutgers jumps over these other teams (i.e., if USC or ND wins out and Florida wins out) is if they completely dismantle WVU.

 

Based on this, I'd put the probability of RU playing for the NC at about 20%.

[Grits and Shins]

Based on this, I'd put the probability of RU playing for the NC at about 20%.

 

 

Less if they can't beat Cincy