Week 16 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

 

We have had some good discussions and sharing of stats. I encourage more to join in and voice their opinions. We are here to help one another.

 

Let's get them again this week: rattsass, crispirons, xMRogers, gerry.harris, Mojo Rising, keggerz, godtomsatan and everyone else who wants to make $$ this week.

[Steeltown Dre]

First, I hope you cashed w/ Indy and the Under. Last night my middle opportunity did not work out, but still had a decent payday as Indy and the Under were my 2 biggest plays of the night.

 

I have already started looking at Week 16. My advice first and foremost is be very careful. Books like to drain your money on these unpredictable games at the end of the season. Meanwhile, at least for me, playoffs are the best time of the year.

 

So make sure you have enough to live another day and don't bet over your means.

 

There are some games that jump off the board, and there already has been some crazy line movement. We will see how my system holds up this week as things like playoff position, draft picks, motivation and injuries play much larger roles. Last week it did pretty well, and was 1 point away from going 4-1.

 

As I have said in the past, I am not a sworn believer in "team trends". I like all the info I can get, but looking back over years and years of team trends does not make much sense to me, especially if that team has new players, new coaches and a new philosophy.

 

But I do think you can take a look at "pointspread trends" at this time of the year. I am not suggesting to blindly bet whatever they tell you. But they are a good source of information. And that is, afterall, what we need to cap a game. Too much info can freeze you up, but too little info and betting on a hunch after a while can leave you in the red, unless you have a gift for this sort of thing.

 

This is what I love to do, and winning makes it all worthwhile. Sharing this info helps us all out, even if you don't agree or tread lightly on what one other posts, it is still valuable to have the information in one source.

 

So onto the "pointspread trends":

 

Pointspread Trend #1

 

This week we have 9 home teams favored by 4 points or less:

 

GB-3

BUF-4

NYG-3

STL-1

PIT-3.5

CLE-3

JAX-3

SF-3.5

MIA-1

 

Since the 2004 season, in weeks 16 and 17, home teams favored by 4 points or less have gone:

 

10-5-1 ATS and 11-5 SU

 

These numbers are saying: don't look at the points and think they will help you. Don't be afraid to give 4 points or less. The points only mattered in 1 game and that was just a "push" in an ATS bet.

 

The home team in their wins have won by an average of 10 points. In their losses they have lost by an average of 9 (since 2004).

 

So if you like BUF, lay the 4. If you like TEN, I'd split half your bet on the spread and half on ML to get more profits. This is not saying to simply take the home team. It is saying: take the team you think will win the game.

 

That said, there could be game this weekend where the home team wins but does not cover. Nothing is guaranteed, and it just has been 2 years of games the spread didn't matter in these situations. Not to say it won't this weekend, but interesting nonetheless.

 

Pointspread Trend #2:

 

This week we have 2 home teams favored between -6 and -8 points.

 

ATL-6.5

DAL-7

 

Since the 2004 season, in weeks 16 and 17, home teams favored between (and including) -6 thru -8 have gone:

 

0-9-1 ATS

 

Even taking it back to the 2002 season, they are 9-18-1 ATS

 

 

Pointspread Trend #3:

 

This week we have 2 road teams favored between -4 and -9 points.

 

CHI -4.5

KC-6.5

IND-9

 

Last season, in weeks 16 and 17, road teams favored between -4 and -9 points went:

 

6-0-1 ATS and winning on average by 18 points.

 

Since 2002 they are 12-7-1, winning on average by 12 points.

 

Now Chi already has home field throughout, so we will see what Lovie wants to do. Indy is still fighting w/ Baltimore for a 1st round bye. And it is a "must win" for KC.

 

All 3 are in different situations, so be aware.

 

In Summary:

 

I am not one blindly bet "team" trends, such as Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in night games (which, plus or minus a game - I forget the exact numbers, was a trend prior to the Cowboys game). They are information to look at but can be conflicting or arbitrary at times, as well as outdated. But I do think there is something you can take by looking at historical "pointspread" trends.

 

As with most trends, you pull them out 10 years or more, and they start to even out. There are some trends that stand the test of time. However I like to think that the betting public changes each year, Vegas adapts, and the most recent trends are the most beneficial.

 

Do not bet these trends blindly. I am not posting them for that reason. I am posting them to be used as a tool for us as we cap the games.

 

So the main lessons I could see that apply to week 16 based on the games we have been given:

 

#1. When betting on game featuring the home team favored by -4 or less points, focus on picking the winner. If that is the Fav, lay the points. If it is the dog, use ML bets or in addition to (or as opposed to) taking the points.

#2. Home teams favored between -6 and -8 points could be faded with success and should only be bet on using EXTREME caution.

#3. Road teams favored between -4 and -9 points are not "sucker" bets and should be bet when the situation is right.

[Steeltown Dre]

I also wanted to add that I know this is the time of year that these boards thin out. I hope some of you fellow degenerates will stick around and lets make $ together. It doesn't end w/ the regular season.

 

The next 2 months are my most profitable. Last year I went 16-2 in the playoffs and won 1st place ($600 cash) in the Wagerline Competition.

 

This year I have been invited to compete in a private Playoff pool of the top 25 select cappers out of 13,000. Needless to say I have my work cut out for me, so hopefully this board will help me and I will help you. I admit going 16-2 includes a lot of luck, but then again, all wagering does to an extent.

 

So while I want to finish out the season strong, I would like to be riding a good streak into the playoffs.

 

I'm peaking at the right time - I have had winning days on my last 5 out of my last 6, and have won 5 "primetime" games in a row, middling 2 of them.

 

But that's not to say that I couldn't lose 10 in a row. I have my ups and downs. So I will pick and choose my spots the next 2 weeks. Being cautious this time of year is a good thing.

 

I also don't mind seeing info on the college bowls - while my focus is pros, I will occasionally dabble in college and am always down for an angled bet.

 

So feel free to post any and everything you want in here. Like I said, we are here to help each other.

[Mojo Rising]

Dre I still haven't done my research on the games but wow does that chicago line stand out at a measly -4.5

 

That line scares me enough to take the horrible Lions plus the points.

[daboz]

Dre I still haven't done my research on the games but wow does that chicago line stand out at a measly -4.5

 

That line scares me enough to take the horrible Lions plus the points.

 

 

 

That does seem really low,

[rattsass]

That does seem really low,

 

 

The only problem I see with this game (aside from the fact that Chicago jacked me up last week as a home favorite) is the fact that the Bears will be resting some sore bodies over the next 2 weeks. If Detroit shows up and decides to try to win this game, this could be a big trap game. Looks too easy, and it probably is.

[Steeltown Dre]

Wanted to add a few things in general to these next 2 weeks. I know you remember last year "The Year of the Fav" - Favorites covered 57% of the games in the first 15 weeks of the season. Here is how it looks back to 1989:

 

Tracking only weeks 1-15

 

Year - % of Favs that covered

 

2006 47%

2005 57%

2004 50%

2003 53%

2002 43%

2001 48%

2000 48%

1999 46%

1998 54%

1997 45%

1996 49%

1995 47%

1994 46%

1993 47%

1992 48%

1991 51%

1990 55%

1989 45%

 

If you can tell a pattern, it seems you will have several years of around 47%, then a lower year (45% in 97) and it bumps up to 54% (98) and then drops back to around 47% for a few years, and then another low year (43% in 02) and then it bumps up to 53% (03).

 

Before every "public" year we have a really sharp year. (note: 1989 had only 16 weeks in the season)

 

Sometimes there is 1 "Public" year before going back to the sharps. Sometimes 2. We had a rare string of 3 public years, w/ last year being a remarkable 57%.

 

I call it public years because the public loves favs and that's how they make their money.

 

This year so far is not a public year - back down to the 47% average.

 

Now the reason I did this was to see the relationship between what happened in the first 15 weeks and what happens in the last 2 weeks.

 

Now, here is the relationship between the first 15 weeks and weeks 16-17:

 

(the pasting sucks but the column on the left is weeks 16 and 17 and the column on the right is weeks 1-15)

 

season - % of favs in the Last 2 Weeks - % of favs in the First 15 Weeks

2006 ???? 47%

2005 62% 57%

2004 35% 50%

2003 50% 53%

2002 48% 43%

2001 48% 48%

2000 45% 48%

1999 50% 46%

1998 45% 54%

1997 48% 45%

1996 45% 49%

1995 43% 47%

1994 43% 46%

1993 38% 47%

1992 59% 48%

1991 54% 51%

1990 42% 55%

1989 65% 45%

 

You can draw your own conclusions, but here are mine:

 

I look first at 1991 and 1992.

 

91 was a second public year in a row. It dropped off in 92. Books know the public may be hurting and want continued betting on the playoffs - the last 2 weeks the favs cover at 59%.

 

Then we look 7 years later at 98 and 99. 98 is another public year, 99 it drops back off. The last 2 weeks of 99 the favs cover at 50%.

 

Of course last year was an abnormality. Part of it may have had to do w/ the books killing the public the last 2 weeks heading into 2004 playoffs. 35% favs covered - the lowest I can track back to.

 

Perhaps they didn't do as well in the playoffs that year by taking a bite out of the public just before the playoffs. So in 05, they gave a little during the season and gave even some more in the last 2 weeks. 62% of favs covered the last 2 weeks!

 

Depending on how they did in the playoffs last year could tell what they will decide this year. Needless to say, we won't see the same type of fav cover % the last 2 weeks this year.

 

But we've not seen the first sharp year after several public years drop off to less than 50% fav covers.

 

So if I had to wager, I'd say we will have the same if not more favs cover these next 2 weeks than we have had the last 15 weeks.

 

I guess the big lesson is: don't bet the last 2 weeks of this season like you did last year - you can bet on not seeing 62% favorite covers for several years to come.

 

The other lesson is: these last 2 weeks can be either similar or very different to what we saw the first 15, so that is why you need to be extra cautious in your capping this time of year.

Edited December 19, 2006 by Steeltown Dre

[xMRogers]

Right now, I wouldn't touch Chicago - between the injuries (and guns), the "passer rating somewhere btween 1 adn 115" QB, the almost dependence on def and ST scoring to cover....they could beat Detroit by 1 or 40 an dI wouldn't be shocked either way

 

I like what Steel has to say in one part - there's not a game out there you couldn't find 5 trends going one way, and 5 going the other. My take on things is : let me look at the football side of things and decide who I like - then I'll compare a bit to trends and line moves, and never go against my original thought, but maybe layoff some games or back some of my lesser faves.

 

I do like most of the home teams in that 1 to 4 scenario initially but havent' really started thinking too hard about it.

 

I also like fading Atlanta, and due to the fact I have bet 1 unit on the Eagles every game for the last 5 seasons (thank god I'm not a texans fan), fading the 'boys (although the real handicapper in me says 3 road div games in three weeks is a tough sell....we're still going to win big)

 

As an aside, what are we doing about the bowls - thread here or iin college forum?

[keggerz]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. Hopefully we can help each other out and make some money.

 

We have had some good discussions and sharing of stats. I encourage more to join in and voice their opinions. We are here to help one another.

 

Let's get them again this week: rattsass, crispirons, xMRogers, gerry.harris, Mojo Rising, keggerz, godtomsatan and everyone else who wants to make $$ this week.

 

believe it or not I DONT BET...but that doesnt mean I dont take it seriously

 

my last 2 weeks I hit on some pretty bold calls:

 

Jax over Indy(i actually called for the upset not just indy failing to cover)

Tampa to cover vs BEARS

 

so to go for three in a row I need to look at everything a little more, and I will try to make my selection the "You are Nuts" Pick of the bunch...

 

Dre care to post all the lines for me as well as the O/Us?

Edited December 19, 2006 by keggerz

[keggerz]

From from my "You are Nuts" selections but NYJ +1 looks like a winner to me,

 

yeah Miami always seems to play the Jets tough

but this has serious playoff ramifications for the JETS

I dont see Mangini whiffing on this game, he learned under

Belidick and he will be prepared and also have his team

prepared...Jets win this one going away

[Steeltown Dre]

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at Green Bay Packers -3.5 O/U 36

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Oakland Raiders +6.5 O/U 36

Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Buffalo Bills -4.5 O/U 36.5

New Orleans Saints +3 at New York Giants -3 O/U 47.5

Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Atlanta Falcons -6.5 O/U ??????

Washington Redskins +1 at St Louis Rams -1 O/U 43.5

Indianapolis Colts -9 at Houston Texans +9 O/U 47

Baltimore Ravens +3.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 O/U 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 at Cleveland Browns -3 O/U 35

Chicago Bears -4 at Detroit Lions +4 O/U 42.5

New England Patriots +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars -3 O/U 37

Arizona Cardinals +4 at San Francisco 49ers -4 O/U 45

Cincinnati Bengals +3 at Denver Broncos -3 O/U 44.5

San Diego Chargers -4 at Seattle Seahawks +4 O/U 46

Philadelphia Eagles +7 at Dallas Cowboys -7 O/U 46.5

New York Jets +1 at Miami Dolphins -1 O/U 36.5

Edited December 19, 2006 by Steeltown Dre

[Steeltown Dre]

Good stuff guys - can't comment on the insights as I am rushed but I like what I am reading.

[Mojo Rising]

After some intense researching, here go my picks:

 

Packers -3

(In cheese country; Game plan has already been revealed = Tarvaris blitz package)

 

Saints/Giants Over 47.5

(Giants must win to maybe have a chance; Saints need to tie Dallas, Phili, Seattle for 2nd seed bye)

 

Chiefs -6.5

(Against Oakland, LJ will have a field day which will lead to the Chiefs play-action)

 

Bucs/Browns Over 35

(Both teams can score and they will do that; wow why so low??? weather calls for a pretty nice da)

 

Cardsinals/49ers Over 45

(Both teams always find a way to score a lot of points, shouldn’t be anything different)

 

49ers -4

(At home and playing inspired football, Gore should have a very nice day)

 

 

EDIT: Any Thoughts?

Edited December 20, 2006 by Mojo Rising

[Steeltown Dre]

This week we have two road favorites that are totalling a whopping 80% in their consensus picks:

 

KC and Chi

 

I think part of the reason the public loves KC here is they still are not eliminated from the playoffs, and they face Oak who is vying for the #1 draft pick.

 

KC has won the last 7 matchups, covering in 4 of the 7. Still, in those 7 matchups, they have never covered a spread > 4.5 points. The 3 times they failed to cover, the spread was between 9 and 11 points. That includes earlier this year when KC won by only 4 in KC.

 

KC hasn't done too well ATS, losing 5 of their last 6 ATS including their last 3 SU.

 

Meanwhile Oakland isn't much better ATS lately. After starting the season 0-4 and 0-4 ATS, they went on a run ATS. Over 7 weeks they covered 6 out of 7 games despite only winning 2 games. However lately they have been abismal. Which coincides with the time John Shoop took over playcalling from Tom Walsh.

 

It started w/ a home game against Houston. Oakland turned the ball over five times, missed three field goals, allowed five sacks and had only one offensive score. Oakland lost despite outgaining Houston 302-124 in total yards.

 

They then lost in Cincy 27-10, although they scored 1TD in the 4th after Cincy was up 27-3. Oakland's first three drives ended this way: fumble, missed field goal, interception.

 

And last week they were embarassed at home 20-0 by StLouis. They allowed Jackson to run for 127 yards and two touchdowns. It was St. Louis' first shutout since 2003. And Bulger gave the recipe for success: "Around halftime, we figured out they were struggling on offense. We knew if we didn't turn the ball over and got a touchdown or two, we'd be in a great position."

 

KC was beaten on both sides of the ball last week by Oakland. KC still has some fight in them. You probably heard LJ's outburst against his OC last week, saying:

 

"When you do the same things over and over again, a good defense (is) going to do things to stop you. If you don't switch it up, if you don't do different things, that's how it goes. We played (San Diego) weeks ago, and they see what we do on tape (and) we never changed a bit of it.

 

"We need to sit down and change something," Johnson said. "This (stuff) is getting ridiculous. Everybody is saying, 'It's OK,' but I don't know who in their mind thinks this (stuff) is OK. I'm getting tired of hearing this 'We'll get 'em next week' speech. We need to sit down and change a lot. It's tough running against a brick wall until you break it open. You see other teams do things differently, react differently. There are other ways of doing things."

 

We'll see what happens. I saw the public all over KC, and already took KC -4.5 earlier in the week (buying it to -4.5 when it was at -5). The line opened at 3.5 and is now at 6.5. This may be another middle opportunity. I refuse to put money on the Raiders after how I have seen them play the last 3 weeks. But as a bettor, you know a team is never as cooked as some may think. I am holding the -4.5 tight until closer to gametime. 6.5 is a high number historically for these 2 teams to cover over the last few years. But given this year's Oak team, KC could cover that number.

 

As for the Chi/Det game, we have seen the opposite happen w/ the line.

 

It opened at -7 at Pinny (the smartest book out there and they release the lines the earliest). Within 4 hours the sharps pounded it down to Chi -4. Lots of early money came in on Det.

 

Now since Sunday it has sat at -4, despite 80% consensus being on the Bears.

 

I would be very careful w/ the Bears, not saying I would bet Det w/o Kevin Jones (Harris is averaging just 2.9 yards on 29 carries) but I'll look more at this game later. Det has only covered 29% of it's games, worst in the league. Chi had been covering 64%, 2nd best in the league, but was only 4-3 ATS on the road and we all know they clinched everything they can last week. Right now I say no play, if you are an action junky possibly Chi, but I'd try to stay away from this one. Like I said, I'll look more into it.

 

I would be hard pressed to play Det here, and I can almost guarantee I would much rather put my money on about 25 other teams than Det or Oak at this point.

 

As for early thoughts on the Jets, Mia just was eliminated from the playoffs while NYJ still are hanging in there.

 

The Jets have covered 6 in a row, including last year's Dec 18 matchup in Mia when they were 8.5 point dogs and only lost by 4. Needless to say NYJ are playing much better than last year, and are between -1 and -2.5 point dogs at most books.

 

Looking at the books, Pinny is the only book that still is at -1. The rest opened at -2 or -2.5 and have pretty much stayed put. 63% consensus is on NYJ.

 

Let's hope Mangini isn't a chip off the old block when it comes to playing late season games in MIA. As you know, NE has lost their last 4 matchups when playing Mia for the 2nd time of the year in Mia in either late Nov or Dec. In fact, the last time NE beat Mia in Mia for their 2nd matchup was the 1997 season.

 

My numbers show the Jets have the advantage in everything except season long stats and one of the ratings I use. However, in the last 3 weeks, on offense NYJ have had a better ypr and ypa, so they have improved in the running and passing game.

 

On defense both teams have allowed more ypr on the ground the last 3 games than they averaged on the season. In the air, Mia has allowed more over the last 3 than their season avg while NYJ have allowed less. But Mia has faced some better passing offenses than NYJ.

 

This game is a way off and I look for a good game. I will have to look more at the matchup to make a selection for this one.

 

I'll look more at the Packers and the Niners, Mojo. Right now the system is leaning towards the Niners (not making a pick on it, just showing some value in the line favoring the niners). But I won't advise on it because I haven't had a chance to look at it fully and both teams can get it done on offense, it's the defense that we need to focus on. I'll get back to you on the Pack.

[rattsass]

Dre, I think you are right on the money about the Bears game. While it takes a huge leap of faith to take the Lions plus the points in this game, that is the only way I would play it. if I were crazy enough to play it. If I would have had the opportunity to buy in at 6.5 points I probably would have. But the first line I had available was 4. Not enough for me. But I damn sure wouldn't lay 4 with the Bears this week. No way.

 

I am on the Packers for Thursday night. Leaning toward the Chiefs on Saturday, though the numbers you cite concerning that series are a clear indication that the Chiefs are a dangerous play. Tread lightly for sure on that one.

 

And as I stated in my column this week, I am on the Titans +4.5. You can probably drag up lots of statistics that point the other way in that game. But I am a believer until proven otherwise. I see that as a HUGE value bet. The spread should be 3. But I don't see that line moving. I figured people would be all over that 4.5. How is the money coming in on that game?

[Steeltown Dre]

12/24

1:00P

 

# Bets 6405

 

317 Tennessee Titans 63%

318 Buffalo Bills 37%

[gerry.harris]

Here are the games that i feel the best about. No system, just going on feeling.

 

KC to cover -6.5 at oakland, KC still fighting for possible playoff spot, Oakland nothing to play for but something to lose for( #1 pick next year)

 

Saints to cover +3 at New York Giants, think the Saints win this one outright

 

Atlanta to cover -6.5 vs. Carolina, ATL at home, try to keep playoff hope alive, Carolina in the crapper.

 

Ind to cover -9 at Houston, Ind fighting for first round bye and Houston just plain sucks

 

Baltimore to cover +3.5 at Pitt, I think Balt wins outright.

 

New England to cover +3 at Jax, just don't see New England losing this one.

 

Cinc to cover +3 at Denver, coming off big loss to Ind, will come out ready to whoop some tale, beats Denver outright.

 

New York Jets to cover +2.5 at Miami, Jets fighting for play off spot, really needs this win

 

Just my opinions.

[Steeltown Dre]

I want to add emphasis on the Pointspread Trend #3:

 

#3. Road teams favored between -4 and -9 points are not "sucker" bets and should be bet when the situation is right.

 

I hope you don't take away from that to bet on the Bears, Colts and Chiefs just because of those trends. Over about 8 years worth of data, they actually have lost more than they have won. Last year was the exception.

 

So all I am saying is don't just fade those teams (and bet on the Lions, Texans and Raiders) because you see a road large road fav this late in the year and automatically think "sucker bet".

 

Those games you need to look at closely (the same w/ all games) and bet only when the situation is right.

[Steeltown Dre]

I wanted to add now that I have seen gerry mention Baltimore:

 

My system is not producing any "system picks" for Dogs this week. It does lean towards Baltimore - it considers the game a pickem.

 

More capping to come later on that game later. But right now I see some value in that line, and would do a 50/50 w/ the ML and the 3.5 while you can get it.

 

I have not laid anything on that game yet, so it is not an official recommendation, I am just sharing my thoughts.

 

As it turns out, public is on Pitt at the books:

 

5547 Bets:

 

327 Baltimore Ravens 44%

328 Pittsburgh Steelers 56%

 

But at wagerline they are on Balt and it's closer 52/48.

 

You can kill yourself reading too much into these numbers, and public plays are not always the wrong play. Just thought I'd mention it. Something really close like 52/48 is not raising any flags, not nearly like the Chi game where at the books 94% of the bets have come in on the Bears and 91% have come in on KC. Those are some HUGE numbers and you look hard at them, not so much at 52/48 or 55/45...

[keggerz]

Minnesota Vikings +3.5 at Green Bay Packers -3.5 O/U 36

Loved the pack from the getgo,love em even more with the TJax news

 

Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 at Oakland Raiders +6.5 O/U 36

My gut says OAK wins this game, my head says stay away

 

Tennessee Titans +4.5 at Buffalo Bills -4.5 O/U 36.5

The bills are a completely different team at home and the Tenn D

did their best impersonation of the Chi D to win last weeks game.

Giving up any points with the Buff Offense is always risky but I think the

Bills bring the Titans and VY back down to earth.

 

New Orleans Saints +3 at New York Giants -3 O/U 47.5

 

Carolina Panthers +6.5 at Atlanta Falcons -6.5 O/U ??????

My crazy as hell pick of the week....CAROLINA COVERS,

weinke might get his 2nd win as a panther or does Basenaz get

his 1st?...

 

Washington Redskins +1 at St Louis Rams -1 O/U 43.5

The Skins are just not that good, and i in no way see them winning

2 consecutive games on the road...campbell is progressing but

the RAMS win this one going away...one of the strongest plays on the board

IMO.

 

New England Patriots +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars -3 O/U 37

I like Jax but I wouldnt bet this game with a 10' Pole

 

San Diego Chargers -4 at Seattle Seahawks +4 O/U 46

Seattle is in a MUST WIN SITUATION IMO and IF i had to

bet this game I would be taking the points.

 

Philadelphia Eagles +7 at Dallas Cowboys -7 O/U 46.5

Cowboys win this game going away but there

is no way I would lay 7 in this game.

 

New York Jets +1 at Miami Dolphins -1 O/U 36.5

already stated how much i like the Jets in this game above.

 

Edited December 20, 2006 by keggerz

[crispirons]

i was sulking away the day yesterday (lost 3 out of 4 fantasy playoff games) otherwise i would have been here to tell you about t.c.u. on top of that, i hit a trifecta at yonkers last night for 400 on my 6 dollar bet. sort of took the sting out of losing all those games, at least for the moment. on thursday, i'm liking the over on byu and oregon. looks like a high probability play. line has jumped from 59 to 61 so alot of the public money going the way i'm playing.

[xMRogers]

i was sulking away the day yesterday (lost 3 out of 4 fantasy playoff games) otherwise i would have been here to tell you about t.c.u. on top of that, i hit a trifecta at yonkers last night for 400 on my 6 dollar bet. sort of took the sting out of losing all those games, at least for the moment. on thursday, i'm liking the over on byu and oregon. looks like a high probability play. line has jumped from 59 to 61 so alot of the public money going the way i'm playing.

 

 

TCU was a big cash (and from what I read everywhere, a lot of folks cashed that as I didn't see one writeup take NIU)

 

I like Oregon on the ML, and the over on Thursday

 

I do like KC, as I've been consistently fading Oakland all year other than a few games during their little rise ATS, but most of the other 'nothing to play for' I'd really watch out for. Teams won't reverse trend that much based on playoff possibiilities. A prime example is Atl-Car - in theory, Atl will wipe the field as they are playing for a playoff berth and Carolina is done. However, i like Car here to cover and possibly win just based on the matchup.

 

I also like the Bills. Tenn is having a great season, and has been money as of late, but Buffalo at home is just the better team.

 

Chi-Det - only thing I'd touch is the over on total number of interceptions thrown.....

[Steeltown Dre]

Wanted to drop off a quick update - you know how rumors go, especially PFT, but anyway:

 

http://www.profootballtalk.com/rumormill.htm

 

PFT reporting that he may have an injured shoulder.

 

CARSON PALMER INJURED?

 

A reader tipped us off on Tuesday to the possibility that Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer emerged from Monday night's loss to the Colts with an injury. Per the tipster, Palmer has a shoulder injury, possibly a torn rotator cuff.

 

We've poked around a bit via our network of sources, and we've concluded that there's something to this one. It's our understanding that Palmer is undergoing tests on the shoulder today.

It's the last thing the 8-6 Bengals need as they prepare to face the 8-6 Broncos on Sunday in Denver. The winner will be in great shape for a playoff spot; the loser will be battling with the likes of the Jaguars and the Steelers and the Jets and the Chiefs and the Titans and the Bills (the Bills?) for the six seed.

 

Anyhow, the line right now is Den -3.

 

The numbers from the books are (3211 bets)

 

Spread

Cincy - 59%

Denver -41%

 

ML

Cincy - 90%

Denver - 10%

 

I haven't looked at the game at all yet from a capping perspective. Please feel free to disprove the rumor - I'm not trying to convince anyone of anything, especially inaccurate rumors. Just sharing what I've read.

[Trots]

I think Nati wins fairly easily this week. Denver has no business being favored in this game with an untested QB. The public saw Cincy throttled by the Colts and Denver handle a bad Arizona team and will jump on Denver -3. Cincy money line.

[rattsass]

I think Nati wins fairly easily this week. Denver has no business being favored in this game with an untested QB. The public saw Cincy throttled by the Colts and Denver handle a bad Arizona team and will jump on Denver -3. Cincy money line.

 

 

Unless I am mistaken, the Bengals haven't won in Denver in over 14 years.