2nd pick overall

[ljbrun]

We have 2 keepers mandatory. WCOFF scoring w/ppr. 14 teams, starters: 1 QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 D

 

My keeper candidates are L. Maroney, Thomas Jones, L. Fitzgerald, Steve Smith.

 

Right now I'm looking to trade Smith for a draft pick. After shopping him to 4 different owners, it seems the best I can get is a late 3rd or early 4th. An incredible bargain for them (IMO), but I would lose him for nothing otherwise.

 

The guy with 1st overall is almost certainly going to pick Addai. So, my current plan is to keep Maroney and Jones and get Fitz with my pick.

 

My "plan B" would be to trade Jones for a draft pick ( I haven't shopped him around yet, but I'm thinking he would get a similar return as Smith). Then get Benson, Williams or Peterson with my pick.

 

These are the probable top players (based on my preference) available in the draft that I would consider. We haven't declared keepers yet, but, other than a couple of WR's, I doubt if any new names will break into this list.

1. Addai, Joseph IND RB 6 (probably gone with 1st overall pick)

2. Benson, Cedric CHI RB 9

3. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 7

4. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 5

5. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 6

6. Johnson, Calvin DET WR 6

 

I believe that Jones will produce more points for me this year than Benson, Williams or Peterson, but those 3 would probably be better keeper candidates for next year.

 

Does any of this make sense? Nothing seems like a slam dunk so I'm looking for a way to tip the scale somehow (or point me to something obvious that I'm missing).

[Bronco Billy]

Trade Smith & Jones for 3rd/4th round draft picks, keep Maroney & Fitz, and grab a RB near the top of the draft (I assume that's where you are picking if you're talking about Williams, Peterson, & Lynch).

 

That gives you two solid #1 RBs, a top WR, and hopefully 3 picks in the 3rd round. What you need to understand is that with those extra picks you'll always be 2 steps ahead of all the other owners when you fill out your team - and 3 steps ahead of the owners that you traded with. That means your depth will be quality players, and most probably your TE, K, & D will be one of the top 5, if not the best at every position.

 

That makes your team a stronger team overall and less susceptible to being damaged severely by injuries. It also allows you to take quality flyers earlier, which means you have first shot at potential breakout players who drop.

 

And you can get all these benefits without sacrificing anything - it's a win-win for you.

Edited May 16, 2007 by Bronco Billy

[Big Country]

Like Billy said, deal them for picks. IMO, a 3rd/4th round pick is a great value.... for YOU. Realize that they are essentially giving up a first or second rounder in addition to the pick to get these players.

 

So, deal Smith now.

 

Then offer Jones around. See what you get offered. Let's say best offer is a 5th. See if you can talk that guy into taking Jones plus you 6th for his 2nd or 3rd. WOrk hard for the earlier picks, even if it means giving up a player and a later pick. Technically giving up the player costs you nothing as you have other worthy keepers, so you are for all intents and purposes getting a free pick or upgrade.

[ljbrun]

Thanks guys. This makes alot of sense and helps me see this a little more clearly.

 

If it turns out I'm able to make these moves. Any thoughts on who, of the following RB's, will be the most productive this year ?

 

2. Benson, Cedric CHI RB 9

3. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 7

4. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 5

5. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 6

 

I'm leaning toward Benson, since I know he'll be the starter and he'll want to prove himself.

Edited May 16, 2007 by ljbrun

[Big Country]

I too have Benson as the most productive of that group.

 

Williams still has Foster to contend with, though I think the balance will lean towards Williams this year, and Peterson has Taylor to deal with and is in a mediocre at best situation.

 

Lynch at least should be the primary ball carrier, but that is far from guaranteed.

[Bronco Billy]

Thanks guys. This makes alot of sense and helps me see this a little more clearly.

 

If it turns out I'm able to make these moves. Any thoughts on who, of the following RB's, will be the most productive this year ?

 

2. Benson, Cedric CHI RB 9

3. Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB 7

4. Peterson, Adrian MIN RB 5

5. Lynch, Marshawn BUF RB 6

 

I'm leaning toward Benson, since I know he'll be the starter and he'll want to prove himself.

 

 

As far as value, I think you are right on target. As far as production by the end of the year? I think you could take all 4 names, drop them in a hat, pick them out randomly, and you'd have just as valid a prediction as any other method.