gilthorp Posted June 7, 2007 Share Posted June 7, 2007 Didn't see it, but it's worth a shot. The Foster is never an easy spot though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 7, 2007 Share Posted June 7, 2007 Waiting for Spain to give us the winner here... Curlin. He is the best horse in this race by far, in my opinion. But you cant make any money betting on him. I think Hard Spun has pretty good value at 3-1. Give me some pic 3's and pic 4's to bet. How do you guys see the races for Saturday? Give me something to throw some money on, please!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted June 8, 2007 Author Share Posted June 8, 2007 Curlin. He is the best horse in this race by far, in my opinion. But you cant make any money betting on him. I think Hard Spun has pretty good value at 3-1. Give me some pic 3's and pic 4's to bet. How do you guys see the races for Saturday? Give me something to throw some money on, please!! have'nt had time for the pic 3's and 4's yet. The Manhatten Handicap (race 10) is a really, really nice race IMO. If you're in love with Curlin an All/Curlin daily double will be a decent payday if a longer shot comes in in the 10th...it looks wide open to me (the 10th). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 I've got the afternoon free tomorrow and I was planning on doing some handicapping for Saturday's cards at Emerald, Hollywood, Belmont, and maybe Hastings or Lone Star. I'll throw this question out to see what I get back. I've been thinking about moving away from the DRF past performance sheets and trying out BRIS or something else. Mostly, when I 'cap a race, I give a lot of credence to fractions, final times, and class. I don't really use Beyer figs at all, and rarely dig too deep in the trainer or jockey stats, though I will look at them in case there is something noteworthy. Not to say I don't look at all the races on a PP sheet, but I certainly am looking mostly at the last few races only. Any suggestions? Or do I have to go get ridiculed at PaceAdvantage instead? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crispirons Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 rags to riches winning would make good press. she's a daughter to a.p. indy i believe. great bloodlines for this distance supposedly. i don't think she has it in her. curlin looks logical. hard spun has been getting beat down the stretch in shorter races. its not too far a stretch to see it happens again here with the added distance. still, that horse doesn't like to lose and it has now twice in a row. if the fractions are slow/moderate, spun might spin to victory in this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 I've got the afternoon free tomorrow and I was planning on doing some handicapping for Saturday's cards at Emerald, Hollywood, Belmont, and maybe Hastings or Lone Star. I'll throw this question out to see what I get back. I've been thinking about moving away from the DRF past performance sheets and trying out BRIS or something else. Mostly, when I 'cap a race, I give a lot of credence to fractions, final times, and class. I don't really use Beyer figs at all, and rarely dig too deep in the trainer or jockey stats, though I will look at them in case there is something noteworthy. Not to say I don't look at all the races on a PP sheet, but I certainly am looking mostly at the last few races only. Any suggestions? Or do I have to go get ridiculed at PaceAdvantage instead? I use BRIS. Some trainers have their BRIS PP's free and Pletcher is one of them. You can get some free PP's for this weekend by following this link. http://www.tlorehorses.com/trainers/pletch...fm?page=brisnet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Ok boys. Let me see some picks for tomorrow races! Me and a buddy are thinking about driving up to OTB just across the Kentucky border. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Spain, can you use TVG.com? Tennessee might not be on the list of states allowed, come to think of it, but they are offering six months of free video feeds and race replays if you open an account this weekend and bet on the Belmont. I think they charge .25 a wager. They missed out on the twinspires monopoly on online wagering for the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, so they're pulling out all the stops for the weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Spain, can you use TVG.com? Tennessee might not be on the list of states allowed, come to think of it, but they are offering six months of free video feeds and race replays if you open an account this weekend and bet on the Belmont. I think they charge .25 a wager. They missed out on the twinspires monopoly on online wagering for the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, so they're pulling out all the stops for the weekend. What all perks will I get for signing up with them today? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Waiting for Spain to give us the winner here... I am going with this order of finish: Curlin Hard Spun C.P.West Imawildandcrazyguy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Spain, I've got my notes at home on the undercard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Just finished going over the Belmont field.....and while I had some real interesting things to write up, seeing Tiago going off at 10-1.....no point in saying anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Spain, I've got my notes at home on the undercard. Please pm me that stuff tonight. I am going to bet a little tomorrow! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 Just finished going over the Belmont field.....and while I had some real interesting things to write up, seeing Tiago going off at 10-1.....no point in saying anything. What are you saying? Are you going to bet on Tiago across the board? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
godtomsatan Posted June 8, 2007 Share Posted June 8, 2007 What are you saying? Are you going to bet on Tiago across the board? Yeah. Curlin, Hard Spun, and Tiago are the class of the field. I don't see any of the other horses winning, maybe sneaking past one of them, but not defeating all three. Since the odds are low on the two favorites, might as well go one riding 10-1 at the moment. There's a lot of action on Rags to Riches, and I don't really see the filly with much of a shot against the bigger boys here. I am moderately intrigued by C P West for exotics, but not in the top 2. Hard Spun is a wild card. I liked the guy in the first two races, but they're sticking a new rider on him for tomorrow (trainer Larry Jones said Mario Pino didn't follow the gameplan in the Preakness and fired him). I don't really like him to win here. I not real keen on Imawildandcrazyguy and Slew's Tizzy against the competition, so I'm not incorporating them on any tickets. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted June 9, 2007 Author Share Posted June 9, 2007 Spain, I've got my notes at home on the undercard. Gil, if you don't mind sharing I'd be interested. If you do mind, that's cool... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 Race 5: Foresta Stakes: Very competitive race on the weeds, with as many as 7 with legit shots here. Pick 3 players should go very deep here as I can see any of these jumping up at square odds. Figure that with a solid favorite and a small field in races 6 & 7, some decent coin can be made. With that said, the #11 Fantastic Shirl is 12 of 12 lifetime on the turf--never once being out of the money. She's definately a key for exotics players as she'll most likely hit the board. The other three I like in this race are the 10, Dean's List, the 8 Criminoligist, and the 1 Flow Chart. If I had to do a straight WP on this race, I'm going with the 8, who at 8-1 provides great value and has Shug and Prado. Her sire, Maria's Mon, also sired KD winner Monarchos, and although this is an open stakes, it's not much of a step up. Dean's List is 7 of 9 on the turf and never worse than 4th in the last year of racing. Flow Chart has a jockey/trainer combo I really like and has won both of her races since coming over from the pond. One last gal to look at, simply from a class perspective is the #4, A True Veronicacat...she's been running in much higher company and provides square odds at 5-1. So....I can see it wide open, but give the nod, in this order to the 8 and the 11, with the 1, 10, and 4 being right there. Race 6: True North Handicap There is no false favorite here. The #5 Bordonaro towers above these in terms of consistency and is an easy single for Pick 3 players. I'm looking for an angle here, and I'm going to play some exotics with the 5, but my main WP play is going to be with the #4 Will He Shine. Here's what I like about this one: First of all, the 8/1 will most likely drift up. Secondly, this horse has been running against and holding his own against the likes of Silver Wagon (last year's BC Sprint champ) and Ah Day. Thirdly, I'm simply a sucker for the turf to dirt angle and it's worked out very well for me before. WHS is turning back quick, off the turf, and has good odds....also in capable hands with Prado. He'll be off most people's radars as the money to beat Bordonaro will most likely go with Keyed Entry. Race 7: Just A Game Stakes Only a 5 horse field here. Not much to analyze, but if the #1 Take The Ribbon stays anywhere near the morning line of 5/1, it is a steal. Also, in this type of race, especially with Jerkens having the longest shot on the board, it's usually worth a few pennies to go Win Place on the longest shot on the board, and that's going to be the #3 Miss Shop, who has decent LP figs and is the only stone closer in the field. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 (edited) Race 5: Foresta Stakes: Very competitive race on the weeds, with as many as 7 with legit shots here. Pick 3 players should go very deep here as I can see any of these jumping up at square odds. Figure that with a solid favorite and a small field in races 6 & 7, some decent coin can be made. With that said, the #11 Fantastic Shirl is 12 of 12 lifetime on the turf--never once being out of the money. She's definately a key for exotics players as she'll most likely hit the board. The other three I like in this race are the 10, Dean's List, the 8 Criminoligist, and the 1 Flow Chart. If I had to do a straight WP on this race, I'm going with the 8, who at 8-1 provides great value and has Shug and Prado. Her sire, Maria's Mon, also sired KD winner Monarchos, and although this is an open stakes, it's not much of a step up. Dean's List is 7 of 9 on the turf and never worse than 4th in the last year of racing. Flow Chart has a jockey/trainer combo I really like and has won both of her races since coming over from the pond. One last gal to look at, simply from a class perspective is the #4, A True Veronicacat...she's been running in much higher company and provides square odds at 5-1. So....I can see it wide open, but give the nod, in this order to the 8 and the 11, with the 1, 10, and 4 being right there. Race 6: True North Handicap There is no false favorite here. The #5 Bordonaro towers above these in terms of consistency and is an easy single for Pick 3 players. I'm looking for an angle here, and I'm going to play some exotics with the 5, but my main WP play is going to be with the #4 Will He Shine. Here's what I like about this one: First of all, the 8/1 will most likely drift up. Secondly, this horse has been running against and holding his own against the likes of Silver Wagon (last year's BC Sprint champ) and Ah Day. Thirdly, I'm simply a sucker for the turf to dirt angle and it's worked out very well for me before. WHS is turning back quick, off the turf, and has good odds....also in capable hands with Prado. He'll be off most people's radars as the money to beat Bordonaro will most likely go with Keyed Entry. Race 7: Just A Game Stakes Only a 5 horse field here. Not much to analyze, but if the #1 Take The Ribbon stays anywhere near the morning line of 5/1, it is a steal. Also, in this type of race, especially with Jerkens having the longest shot on the board, it's usually worth a few pennies to go Win Place on the longest shot on the board, and that's going to be the #3 Miss Shop, who has decent LP figs and is the only stone closer in the field. In race #5, Criminalogist is at 30-1! I think that might be one to bet across the board. In race #6, Bordonaro is 15-1 at Betus.com. Should I load up on him at that price? In race #7, Take the Ribbon is down to 2 1/2 to 1 and Miss Shop is at 2-1. Not much money to be made there. What about the Belmont Stakes itself? edit: when I go to youbet.com, I get totally different odds. Bordonaro is 8/5, Criminalogist is 8-1, etc. How can this be? Edited June 9, 2007 by spain Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 7th race: Woody Stephens BC I've loved Stormello this year and thought he was on to big things, and it's been a hard lesson to learn in the past. If I like a horse enough at the start of his 3 year old campaign, you have to show patience and stick with him, so I am. This is a juicy race--lots of three year olds that are all maturing on a week to week basis. Outside of Stormello, I'm really liking the #6, Most Distinguished. Zito has him sharp and ready, and I think the best is yet to come with this one. However, take a look at his line, and you'll see it took him 8 races to break his maiden. This is not a horse to play to win, but he is a horse you can key in your exotics, because outside of the Tampa Bay Derby, he's never been off the board. So, putting Stormello in a top spot and keying Most Distinguished, the rest of the finishers should be Sports Town, Street Magician, and Teuflesburg. This is a race that has just about every single runner with the same style, and it's going to be a calvary charge to the first turn, so I'm going to throw out the #1 and #2, assuming they are going to get pinched and will have nowhere to run. Also tossing the two outside posts, and that would leave any Pick 3 players with the 3-8 horses if they want to go deep here. But, I think Stormello and Sports Town are the most likely winners of this. Race 9: Acorn Stakes Five horse filly field. The start of the Triple Tiara, and that's a big deal for trainers in New York. Dream Rush won last time for fun, but 9 1/4 lengths--stretching out might hurt her, but she's a monster. Christmas Kid has been pointed to this race since she won the Ashland. Boca Grande has also been pointed to this one since April. These three run early and fast, and the only one who can upset this trio is Cotton Blossom. This is purely an odds play for me and the best value will get my WP money. The Manhattan is wide open and I'll try to get to this, but as of right now, Shakis and Steppenwolfer are getting long looks from me at very good odds. The Belmont is something I'm not sure about yet. I still don't see the pace set up that Tiago will need. I certainly don't think Hard Spun wants to go that fast for this long. This race is made for Curlin, but I feel he is over the top now. I still need to think about this race and the Manhattan overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 In race #5, Criminalogist is at 30-1! I think that might be one to bet across the board. In race #6, Bordonaro is 15-1 at Betus.com. Should I load up on him at that price? In race #7, Take the Ribbon is down to 2 1/2 to 1 and Miss Shop is at 2-1. Not much money to be made there. What about the Belmont Stakes itself? No way in hell is Bordonaro 15-1. The morning line is 8/5. I've got a Morning Line of 8-1 for Criminologist. The thing about Criminologist is that she's got the second best speed last race out, and looks to be a square price right now. She will be in the front part, if not in front, and Edgar Prado on the lead in a turf race is something I like to see. I don't know what odds you are looking at...I'm just going off of the PP's and the ML odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 I don't know what odds you are looking at...I'm just going off of the PP's and the ML odds. Something was wrong earlier as I just went back on and the odds are completely different. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 I just bet a few pick 3's and some WPS. I accidentally bet $6 across the board on Miss Shop in the 7th for an $18 bet. I meant to bet $2 across but didnt know how to use the site very well. I keyed Bordanaro and Take the Ribbon in a couple pic 3's. Havent bet the Belmont Stakes yet as I am waiting for more opinions. Would like to put Curlin in some pic 3's as well because I think he crushes the field today. I may be wrong but Curlin looks like a friggin monster. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted June 9, 2007 Author Share Posted June 9, 2007 The Belmont is something I'm not sure about yet. I still don't see the pace set up that Tiago will need. I certainly don't think Hard Spun wants to go that fast for this long. This race is made for Curlin, but I feel he is over the top now. I still need to think about this race and the Manhattan overnight. I too think (hope) Curlin is over the top. Hard Spun will get a slower pace and a better ride today but he has lost ground in the last two races in the stretch and this is a mile and a half. Again the slower pace will help, but if he wins he'll win without me. I like Tiago. Shireffs isn't a trainer that will ship a horse across the country unless he's confident he has a shot to win. He was also pointed to this race after Kentucky and should be rested and ready today. Rags has a shot in that Curlin and Hard Spun have been running their guts out while she's resting. She's a hell of a horse and may be catching these two at the right time but I can't play her in a triple crown race at less than 4 or 5-1 and you won't get that on her today. CP West. I read somewhere that 16 of the last 21 Belmonts were won with a stalking trip. 1 1/2 miles everyone assumes a stone closer will go by everyone in the stretch but it's usually not the case. He'll be stalking the pace and his move in the Preakness was'nt that bad. You'll get Zito and Prado at a nice price and that don't happen every day. Wildandcrazyguy's Derby was'nt as bad as it looks on paper. He raced 10 wide and was beat by Curlin by 1/2 a length. Think about that. Mark Guidry has been very lucky for me over the years. I"ll spread out a little in the pic 3 and pic 4 but in the Belmont I may just play a $1 tri box with Tiago, CP, Rags and Wildandcrazy and hope Hard Spun and Curlin don't show up. I'm tossing Tizzy so there's a great chance he wins. By alot. Good Luck everybody! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spain Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 I too think (hope) Curlin is over the top. What does that mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gilthorp Posted June 9, 2007 Share Posted June 9, 2007 What does that mean? It's simply that he has already reached a peak performace and is due to regress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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