FFGuru Posted August 13, 2007 Share Posted August 13, 2007 I have the number one pick in my local redraft and I am seriously thinking about taking Jackson over Lt. I just have this hunch. I dont think Lt is going to be a bust but last year left him no room for improvement where as Jackson has said he will not be happy unless he has 2500 total yards. Jackson is only going into his third year and its only going to get better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gigglesnort Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 This sounds like some faulty logic or paralysis by analysis. Yes LT has a huge year and a repeat or better is certainly asking a lot. That said, if he performs at even 75% of last year your are better than all the others. And just because Jackson wants to get 2500 yards doens't mean he will. I want a million dollars, but..... Get the point here. One guy has done it all, the other guy is still trying. Besides, the backup with Rams is supposedly going to get about 10 carries a game according to Linehan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpinalTapp Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 crazy no, just a little confused Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
craiginthecapital Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 LT is the easiest 1st pick in any (re)draft where he's available. You're right, he can't improve much. But so what?? Unless your league gives points for improvement from previous years, why do you care if he turns in two #1 seasons that are about the same? Also, consider this: LT wound down early last year because the Chargers had the West locked-up early. This year it looks like the Bronc's are going to make it a much closer race, which if true, means LT will be forced to run longer and harder than he did last year. Can you trade draft picks in your redraft league? If so and you really want Jackson, offer the guy with the 2nd pick your first pick for his 1st and 3rd picks. He'll think he's getting a steal with LT, and you'll get an extra early pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesweetness Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 pick lt. you will be very mad if you dont and your leage mates will never let you off the hook. I had a friend who picked sean alexander over lt last year because he had a "hunch". dont make the same mistake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted August 14, 2007 Share Posted August 14, 2007 (edited) pick lt. you will be very mad if you dont and your leage mates will never let you off the hook. I had a friend who picked sean alexander over lt last year because he had a "hunch". dont make the same mistake A lot of people picked Alexander over LT last year. It's funny how perception of players gets skewed in hindsight... That said, a good argument can be made for taking Jackson with the 1st pick. He's going to get a ton of work, including in the passing game. He's got a legit backup now in Leonard, which actually helps him in that he doesn't have to play hurt or completely winded - meaning when he is playing he's in top form. Turner does much the same thing for Tomlinson in SD. Jackson is one of the very few players that has a legitimate shot at putting up better numbers than Tomlinson in the coming season. Some people also get caught up in record numbers and forget that records don't just happen all the time, or even close. It was mildly amusing (and annoying) to hear people predicting 40-50 TD passes the season after Manning threw for 50. Instead he regressed to his mean and threw 28 that year. Because Tomlinson put up 28 rushing & 3 receivng TDs doesn't mean he'll do that again, or more, this coming season. Odds are he'll regress to his mean this coming season, meaning that he'll probably have closer to 15 to 18 rushing TDs and 2 to 3 receiving TDs. Along with around 2200 to 2300 total yds and 50-55 receptions, a good season by Jackson could surpass LT, especially in a ppr league, since Jackson catches more balls than LT. Odds are in LT's favor that he'll finish with a better performance than any other RB, but it's not out of the question or farfetched that he finishes 2nd to Jackson. If you really feel that strongly, go with your hunch - but don't second guess yourself if it doesn't pan out. Know going in that you are going against the odds and live with the consequences. I'm sure you'll make the guy with the 2nd pick in your league very happy. Edited August 14, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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