forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 Much of the forcing passes into coverage occurred late in the regular season when both Brady and Moss were both chasing TD records. I don't find that surprising or indicative of any long-term trend. I also really doubt that Brady's going to force passes in the SB to keep Moss happy. And I don't see it being a long-term issue either, as I don't see BB ponying up the $25-30 million or so in guaranteed money that it'll probably take to keep Moss in NE for the next few years. Remember that Belichick secured Welker and Stallworth first - he only traded for Randy later on because he could get him for peanuts. BB needs to do something about Samuel, find a replacement for Seau (who will almost certainly retire if they win next Sunday), and he's probably going to add a backup halfback as well. Interesting post but, fortunately for you, I don't think that Brady's going to turn into Favre any time soon. i think randy would take a little less to stay here....i could see a 3 year 21 mil deal done....i think stallworth is the man thats out of the equation...jabar gaffney, and hopefully chad jackson, can get his job done.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 i could see a 3 year 21 mil deal done. If Moss gets a ring, I suspect he would go to the highest bidder, provided the Pats don't tag him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pig devilz Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 i think randy would take a little less to stay here....i could see a 3 year 21 mil deal done....i think stallworth is the man thats out of the equation...jabar gaffney, and hopefully chad jackson, can get his job done.... add Kelley Washington to that mix too... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 i think randy would take a little less to stay here....i could see a 3 year 21 mil deal done....i think stallworth is the man thats out of the equation...jabar gaffney, and hopefully chad jackson, can get his job done.... While I agree that Moss would probably prefer to stay there and continue to play with Brady and win, I'd say that 3/21 is a pipe dream. Especially after he took a massive paycut to play in NE this year, he likely wouldn't see the third year of the contract, and he could probably command 5/60 with $25 million guaranteed on the free market. I imagine that Randy took the paycut to play in NE because (1) he wanted a ring and (2) he knew that playing with Brady would jack up his value as a FA. If they win a week from Sunday, I don't see his incentive to stick around for 1/3 of what he's worth. I'd be shocked if he accepted anything less than 4/40 with $15 million guaranteed... and that'd still be a lot less than what Marvin got a few years ago. Plus, I'm not sure if BB wants to give a huge, long-term deal to a guy on the wrong side of 30 and with health and attitude issues. Especially with younger, cheaper guys available on the market (aren't D.J. Hackett and Bernard Berrian FAs soon?). Even if they wanted to franchise-tag him (not sure how that works with 9-year vets), that's still a massive cap hit for a team that's (likely) going to have to replace a retiring HOF linebacker and try to sign a young, FA elite corner. I don't know NE's cap situation very well, but my guess is that BB's priority is taking care of his defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 If Moss gets a ring, I suspect he would go to the highest bidder, provided the Pats don't tag him. Tagging him is an interesting idea. This could be interesting to watch. He isn't one the usual guys that can be easily replaced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Tagging him is an interesting idea. This could be interesting to watch. He isn't one the usual guys that can be easily replaced. What's the tag value of a WR? Somewhere in the neighborhood of $9 million? It'd be interesting to see how Randy reacted to that, instead of the $20+ million guaranteed he'd get in a long-term deal. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Tagging him is an interesting idea. This could be interesting to watch. He isn't one the usual guys that can be easily replaced. I wouldn't be surprised if they agreed to this course with Randy already. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 well for those who think randy is walking when he gets his ring...do me a favor...compile me a list of teams who will shell out the kind of money swerski is talking about...and that have a good quarterback...and coach....that moss cant call into question when things arent going so great...im interested to see what kind of short list u guys can come up with Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 well for those who think randy is walking when he gets his ring...do me a favor...compile me a list of teams who will shell out the kind of money swerski is talking about...and that have a good quarterback...and coach....that moss cant call into question when things arent going so great...im interested to see what kind of short list u guys can come up with TO got paid. I'm just saying I can see Randy making a money grab once he gets his ring. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 (edited) well for those who think randy is walking when he gets his ring...do me a favor...compile me a list of teams who will shell out the kind of money swerski is talking about...and that have a good quarterback...and coach....that moss cant call into question when things arent going so great...im interested to see what kind of short list u guys can come up with Well, the Colts for one. They gave Marvin 6/67 with something like $23 million guaranteed back in 2004 (age 32). Wayne got 6/40 with $13.5 million up front. I think that you're severely under-estimating Moss' value on the open market. There are a number of teams that are desperate for a big-play WR. New England has won three Super Bowls without one. I can't read Moss' mind, but I imagine that he'll want at least 4/40 with $15 million up front (slightly more than Reggie). And I'm not sure that Belichick would want to shell out that kind of guaranteed money to a WR on the wrong side of 30, especially when his team's historical strength (defense) is going to have to be addressed in the off-season as well. If Randy is in New England next year, my guess is that it'll be via the franchise tag. Edited January 25, 2008 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 Well, the Colts for one. They gave Marvin 6/67 with something like $23 million guaranteed back in 2004 (age 32). Wayne got 6/40 with $13.5 million up front. I think that you're severely under-estimating Moss' value on the open market. There are a number of teams that are desperate for a big-play WR. New England has won three Super Bowls without one. I can't read Moss' mind, but I imagine that he'll want at least 4/40 with $15 million up front (slightly more than Reggie). And I'm not sure that Belichick would want to shell out that kind of guaranteed money to a WR on the wrong side of 30, especially when his team's historical strength (defense) is going to have to be addressed in the off-season as well. If Randy is in New England next year, my guess is that it'll be via the franchise tag. ill give you the colts there....thats the one team i was thinking had what it takes in the qb/coach department...even with the impending shift to caldwell.....but other than that...i cant see many teams that can satisfy him in all 3 departments...money, qb, coach....and i guess the fourth being the ability to compete for a world title...which i think at this point his career...he values just as much as anything...even when he gets his first ring...i dont think hes going to want to step away from the kind of environment that the patriots and colts can produce i agree the defense needs to be addressed a bit....but ill tell you this...the teams "historical strength" may have shifted Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 ill give you the colts there....thats the one team i was thinking had what it takes in the qb/coach department...even with the impending shift to caldwell.....but other than that...i cant see many teams that can satisfy him in all 3 departments...money, qb, coach....and i guess the fourth being the ability to compete for a world title...which i think at this point his career...he values just as much as anything...even when he gets his first ring...i dont think hes going to want to step away from the kind of environment that the patriots and colts can produce i agree the defense needs to be addressed a bit....but ill tell you this...the teams "historical strength" may have shifted and i'll agree with you, if the money is close. I could see him taking less to stay with the pats. I just don't see anyway he would take 3yrs/$21 million. I just don't see it. It would be his last big contract, after that, he's on the downside of his career. . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 (edited) i agree the defense needs to be addressed a bit....but ill tell you this...the teams "historical strength" may have shifted That would be the beginning of the end for them. Belichick and Kraft can look at the Colts' success vs. their own and conclude that building around defense is the better option. High-powered passing offenses are sexy and sell tickets, but don't win championships without the help of stout defenses... especially in Foxboro in January. It would be his last big contract, after that, he's on the downside of his career. . . He may not begin to seriously decline for another couple of years, but his next long-term deal will be his last. He'd be nuts if he took anything under 4 or 5 years with $20 million guaranteed. Edited January 25, 2008 by Bill Swerski Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperCharger Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 He may not begin to seriously decline for another couple of years, but his next long-term deal will be his last. He'd be nuts if he took anything under 4 or 5 years with $20 million guaranteed. Even if it meant being a contender for 4 or 5 more years? None of use can get into Randy's head and know what or how he thinks. Point his he is a millionaire and has enough money to live extremely comfortably for the rest of his life, is it such a big stretch to think the rings would mean alittle more then a few more million dollars? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaptainHook Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Even if it meant being a contender for 4 or 5 more years? None of use can get into Randy's head and know what or how he thinks. Point his he is a millionaire and has enough money to live extremely comfortably for the rest of his life, is it such a big stretch to think the rings would mean alittle more then a few more million dollars? imo, yes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 That would be the beginning of the end for them. Belichick and Kraft can look at the Colts' success vs. their own and conclude that building around defense is the better option. High-powered passing offenses are sexy and sell tickets, but don't win championships without the help of stout defenses... especially in Foxboro in January.He may not begin to seriously decline for another couple of years, but his next long-term deal will be his last. He'd be nuts if he took anything under 4 or 5 years with $20 million guaranteed. in my opinion this teams identity has shifted greatly....to me this defense is no longer an oportunisitic turnover creating machine....they dont blitz much anymore...basically only when somebody is picking them apart and they arent collapsinig the pocket with a base rush....they are really buckling down and playing that over used term "bend but dont break".... randy isnt catching balls in the playoffs....but now look at some the lanes maroney is finding once he gets through a hole....randy is so vital to this teams success whether hes catching 10 balls or 1.....they will find ways to plug holes on defense...they always have(theyve ponied up the money to keep their guys they drafted on defense)...but u cant find guys like randy everywhere....and u know these guys are planning on making a run at 6 superbowls Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Even if it meant being a contender for 4 or 5 more years? None of use can get into Randy's head and know what or how he thinks. Point his he is a millionaire and has enough money to live extremely comfortably for the rest of his life, is it such a big stretch to think the rings would mean alittle more then a few more million dollars? Wow, you homers are really into Wishful Thinking Mode today. Randy just broke the single-season TD record and is pretty much a lock for the HOF now. If he gets his ring a week from Sunday, what else does he have to prove on the field? Do you honestly think that Belichick even WANTS to give Moss a four- or five-year deal? He's going to be 31 next month. And remember that Belichick waited until the last minute to trade for him... he inked both Welker and Stallworth BEFORE Randy. Doesn't sound like Moss was a high priority in BB's revamping of the Pats offense this summer. Regardless of whether or not Moss wants to stay for the long-term, I don't see Belichick shelling out the massive signing bonus and risking salary cap hell if Moss were to sustain more leg injuries or decline over the next year or two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 in my opinion this teams identity has shifted greatly....to me this defense is no longer an oportunisitic turnover creating machine....they dont blitz much anymore...basically only when somebody is picking them apart and they arent collapsinig the pocket with a base rush....they are really buckling down and playing that over used term "bend but dont break".... So, basically they're turning into the Colts defense. That's not good news for you guys. The Pats have never won without an elite defense, even when Brady was having a ton of success through the air in 2002 and 2005. Belichick knows that defense is what wins championships and that neglecting it is a recipe for disaster. All he has to do is look at the Colts playoff record over the past 9 years. randy isnt catching balls in the playoffs....but now look at some the lanes maroney is finding once he gets through a hole....randy is so vital to this teams success whether hes catching 10 balls or 1.....they will find ways to plug holes on defense...they always have(theyve ponied up the money to keep their guys they drafted on defense)...but u cant find guys like randy everywhere....and u know these guys are planning on making a run at 6 superbowls Oh, he's tremendously helpful, even as a decoy. That's why I think that Belichick will franchise-tag him. But a four- or five-year mega-deal? I don't see it happening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 So, basically they're turning into the Colts defense. That's not good news for you guys. The Pats have never won without an elite defense, even when Brady was having a ton of success through the air in 2002 and 2005. Belichick knows that defense is what wins championships and that neglecting it is a recipe for disaster. All he has to do is look at the Colts playoff record over the past 9 years.Oh, he's tremendously helpful, even as a decoy. That's why I think that Belichick will franchise-tag him. But a four- or five-year mega-deal? I don't see it happening. how exactly has belichick neglected his defense? you can still find him on the bench with a board and marker giving his linebackers hands on coaching(dont see that much from many head coaches)...hes spent 4 first rounders on his defense since hes been here...theyve extended the young guys up front...brought in some good veterans from san diego...and even signed a couple of big ticket linebackers.... i just think with the loss of colvin...and the inability of seau and bruschi to cover anybody...the identity of the defense has changed...they are trying to keep things in front of them for the most part... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman_Nick Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 how exactly has belichick neglected his defense? you can still find him on the bench with a board and marker giving his linebackers hands on coaching(dont see that much from many head coaches)...hes spent 4 first rounders on his defense since hes been here...theyve extended the young guys up front...brought in some good veterans from san diego...and even signed a couple of big ticket linebackers.... i just think with the loss of colvin...and the inability of seau and bruschi to cover anybody...the identity of the defense has changed...they are trying to keep things in front of them for the most part... By using first round picks on defense 2 of the last 3 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 how exactly has belichick neglected his defense? He hasn't. But dedicating a ton of cap space to Moss over the next 5 years might force him in that direction. If I'm Belichick, I'd be more interested in re-signing Samuel and finding a replacement for Seau than keeping Moss around. i just think with the loss of colvin...and the inability of seau and bruschi to cover anybody...the identity of the defense has changed...they are trying to keep things in front of them for the most part... Which is exactly why BB needs to spend on defense, not offense. Samuel will be a FA. Seau will likely retire. Bruschi and Harrison aren't going to be playing for much longer. That's a lot of bodies to replace. I agree that the defense has changed. The Colts have beaten them in shoot-outs in three of their last four meetings. And that's probably why BB spent big bucks on tagging Samuel and signing Thomas... and traded for Randy at the last minute for peanuts. Moss was just the icing on the cake after Samuel, Thomas, Welker, and Stallworth. He knows that he's going to beat the Colts with defense, because trying to out-score them in a shootout isn't going to work. That's why I don't see him signing Randy to a big contract. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted January 25, 2008 Author Share Posted January 25, 2008 He hasn't. But dedicating a ton of cap space to Moss over the next 5 years might force him in that direction. If I'm Belichick, I'd be more interested in re-signing Samuel and finding a replacement for Seau than keeping Moss around.Which is exactly why BB needs to spend on defense, not offense. Samuel will be a FA. Seau will likely retire. Bruschi and Harrison aren't going to be playing for much longer. That's a lot of bodies to replace. I agree that the defense has changed. The Colts have beaten them in shoot-outs in three of their last four meetings. And that's probably why BB spent big bucks on tagging Samuel and signing Thomas... and traded for Randy at the last minute for peanuts. Moss was just the icing on the cake after Samuel, Thomas, Welker, and Stallworth. He knows that he's going to beat the Colts with defense, because trying to out-score them in a shootout isn't going to work. That's why I don't see him signing Randy to a big contract. the pats still own a first rounder...which is at 7...i doubt they stay there... which kinda brings up a question....did they change the rule after the kevin williams thing? or do u still get paid for the slot u are actually drafted at instead of where your team was slotted? cuz i could see the pats not handing in a card till very late in the first round if u can still get away with paying him for that slot.... i like samuel alot...ive watched him grow into a top flight corner...in the last couple of years hes finally learned to make plays on the ball...which he had problems doing earlier on his career...despite being good position to...and his hands have improved greatly....id love to have him stay....but u guys know that u can have a first round defensive back come in and play on superbowl caliber defense...even brandon merriweather is starting to see the field more and more....and hes been just a step late on a couple of plays where hes made some big hits....and i think thats just a result of some slight hesitation on his part.... you make some good, valid, points swerski...and franchising moss would be pretty sensible Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xtra Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 Point his he is a millionaire and has enough money to live extremely comfortably for the rest of his life, is it such a big stretch to think the rings would mean alittle more then a few more million dollars? I remember thinking the same thing about A Rod a few years back. Franchise him or hell go with the money.This is the money that will have to last him the rest of his life,4 or 5 years of contending wont keep him in the lifestyle hes become accustomed to when his playing days are over,but money will. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperCharger Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 I remember thinking the same thing about A Rod a few years back.Franchise him or hell go with the money.This is the money that will have to last him the rest of his life,4 or 5 years of contending wont keep him in the lifestyle hes become accustomed to when his playing days are over,but money will. In my heart of hearts I feel like if I where blessed enough to play in the NFL I would cherish the rings alot more then the money. I would hope that I'd have the integrity to take less money to be part of a winning team. What it boils down to is there are no starving NFL players, the gap between the highest paid and the lowest really isn't that big and I'd hope I'd choose rings over that gap. JMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Swerski Posted January 25, 2008 Share Posted January 25, 2008 the gap between the highest paid and the lowest really isn't that big Agreed that there are no starving NFL players, but the gap between the highest- and lowest-paid is absolutely enormous. And many of these players don't exactly invest their money wisely after earning their first contracts. I don't know if Moss would sign a deal that's substantially lower than what he's worth just to stay in NE. But if he wins his ring a week from Sunday, I don't see what else he needs to accomplish professionally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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