Avernus Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 (edited) I still say this is what you can expect with any back. Every RB has good and bad games. I still think we'll see Turner as one of the top 5 backs this year in terms of stats. He is leading the league in rushing so far after 5 games, I think he deserves some credibility that's fine....I just think he is more along the lines of "fools gold" right now and I am still waiting until a week after his bye to decide whether or not he's a top 10 back...he's lingering around the top 10 but would easily fall to 15 if any number of RB's were to get hurt (LenDale White, DeAngelo Williams or Edgerrin James) ...and unfortunately, Dallas has two RB's who could crack the top 10 if they were separated... I still have these RB's ahead of him in a PPR....(in no order) LT AD Westy Barber Gore Lynch Portis Bush MJD Addai Forte Turner EDIT:I have Turner 12th and would slide him down if Edge or LenDale were to get hurt and move Hightower and CJ up...and all the RB's that I have ahead of Turner (not Forte ), I would start them regardless of the matchup... this week GB was a favorable matchup.....I really want to see him produce in an unfavorable matchup before I let him crack my top 10.... if he can get over 75 rush yds and 1 TD against the Bears this week...I will put him near my top 5 as he has shut me up...and it doesn't have so much to do with him as it is the team not being ready to take on a strong ....yet...maybe next year?...who knows... Edited October 6, 2008 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efi4eye Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I see what you're saying, but honestly - MJD and Addai over Turner? MJD has had some TDs but has been WAY more inconsistent and had only one game over 100 yards. If you're playing him as a fantasy owner he's looking like a bust so far IMO. Addai has been pretty bad also, and yes banged up. Lynch has had a pretty bad year, yet to rush for 100 and getting around 20 touches. Forte only rushed for 36 yards against the Lions, who Turner rushed for 220 against. Bush disappeared last game. See where I'm going with this? Almost all have an upside and a downside, which is why Turner ranks right up there with these guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griff321 Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 Turner in my eyes is more of an Addai type player, rush him out for the good games but lower your expectations on the tough ones. I called it before the game, Green Bay had major injury issues creating a favorable match up, and that is it. Everyone wants to crown him because he finally had a good game on the road, but I wouldn't read too much into it. He will roll out a few monsters but he will have some duds against better defenses. The facts are that he has a rookie QB that will take him out of a few games early because Matt will give other teams great opportunities to run up the score early, the offensive line is mediocre and could easily be owned entire games, and Turner is not an "every down" back. He wont get big games from a few tosses to get him outside of linebackers because they'll all go to Norwood. To me the litmus test on whether Turner will have a big day falls on Ryan. I'm always going to ask myself, "is this defense capable of capitalizing on all the balls that Ryan floats?" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I agree. Avernus is way off with his list and there are guys that have shown far less production or potential this year on his list above Turner. Turner is a top 10 back (I see him about #8 or 9), but not a stud IMO. Undoubtedly he'll outperform a good bunch of RBs drafted before him in almost every league. In my league here I drafted him for $8 in my 14-team $100 auction league. Here is a list of guys who cost more (and were probably drafted earlier in your league) than him and that I believe he'll outperform. LJ $22 , Jamal Lewis $22, Willis McGahee $20, Ryan Grant $22, SJax $32, Thomas Jones $12, Maroney $12, Julius Jones $10, MJD $11 (keeper price), Edge $9, By comparison LT $40, Portis $32, Westbrook $35, Atlanta's o-line is not as bad as people thought and Matt Ryan's is doing better than expected this early in his career. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I agree. Avernus is way off with his list and there are guys that have shown far less production or potential this year on his list above Turner. Turner is a top 10 back (I see him about #8 or 9), but not a stud IMO. Undoubtedly he'll outperform a good bunch of RBs drafted before him in almost every league. GB has a lot of injuries. 8 is a little high for me. I say about 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I see what you're saying, but honestly - MJD and Addai over Turner? MJD has had some TDs but has been WAY more inconsistent and had only one game over 100 yards. If you're playing him as a fantasy owner he's looking like a bust so far IMO. Addai has been pretty bad also, and yes banged up. Lynch has had a pretty bad year, yet to rush for 100 and getting around 20 touches. Forte only rushed for 36 yards against the Lions, who Turner rushed for 220 against. Bush disappeared last game. See where I'm going with this? Almost all have an upside and a downside, which is why Turner ranks right up there with these guys. but I base this on Atlanta not being that good to begin with....Forte can still be productive in a bad matchup... this week in my local, Forte still put up 3 more points than Turner....and I attribute Addai's weak start to the team having troubles and that will easily turn around because of the supporting cast... Turner only has one other productive player on the offense with an average line and a defense that is susceptible against the pass and run....I don't have faith in Ryan being able to keep them in games to allow Turner to run the ball late every week...and Forte has a strong defense that allows him to be used often along with a QB that has no problem with throwing him the ball.... now, if I had Turner and could trade him straight up for Addai right now....I'd do it in a heartbeat.... and as I said....I'll let the next 3 weeks, especially the game against the Eagles where both teams are coming off a bye tell me exactly how good Turner is and will be.....and right now I think his best production is behind him... I could be wrong, but when evaluating a player I hate being on the fence.....I choose a side and stick with it...so I have him around 12th overall and he could easily slip back 3 spots or move up 5 pending on who gets hurt in the next few weeks.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I agree. Avernus is way off with his list and there are guys that have shown far less production or potential this year on his list above Turner. Turner is a top 10 back (I see him about #8 or 9), but not a stud IMO. Undoubtedly he'll outperform a good bunch of RBs drafted before him in almost every league. In my league here I drafted him for $8 in my 14-team $100 auction league. Here is a list of guys who cost more (and were probably drafted earlier in your league) than him and that I believe he'll outperform. LJ $22 , Jamal Lewis $22, Willis McGahee $20, Ryan Grant $22, SJax $32, Thomas Jones $12, Maroney $12, Julius Jones $10, MJD $11 (keeper price), Edge $9, By comparison LT $40, Portis $32, Westbrook $35, Atlanta's o-line is not as bad as people thought and Matt Ryan's is doing better than expected this early in his career. I only have 2 of those players above him...but Grant could start performing, I just have no idea how bad his hamstring is....or maybe he's just not the player he was last year......I refuse to have the following players on my team LJ, Jamal, McGahee, Maroney, JJones and Edge...... I'd still consider TJ and Grant and would definitely take MJD and SJax because MJD even started off slow last year and finished strong...also, I still think SJax will be productive in the passing game where he might be needed the most right now... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I only have 2 of those players above him...but Grant could start performing, I just have no idea how bad his hamstring is....or maybe he's just not the player he was last year......I refuse to have the following players on my team LJ, Jamal, McGahee, Maroney, JJones and Edge...... I'd still consider TJ and Grant and would definitely take MJD and SJax because MJD even started off slow last year and finished strong...also, I still think SJax will be productive in the passing game where he might be needed the most right now... I think he'll be fine when the line starts playing better. He's ready to explode but the team needs to play better, last week MM put them through TC type workouts but he is still about their play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I think he'll be fine when the line starts playing better. He's ready to explode but the team needs to play better, last week MM put them through TC type workouts but he is still about their play. yeah, I'm tempted to buy low on him right now....but I'd also have to get BJax along with him...and that's a lot of baggage... although the Packers EOS would also play a part in me buying low.....but I also expected him to score yesterday and that didn't happen... but the 83yd performance is still possibly a sign of things to come.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 So far this season: 103 rushes 543 yards 5.3 average 6 TDs. Seems like Top 10 material for next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 So far this season: 103 rushes 543 yards 5.3 average 6 TDs. Seems like Top 10 material for next year. if only this were a sprint and not a marathon.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G.K.Trey Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 (edited) Lets just say he slows down to 3.5 ypc and instead of 6 tds in 5 games , lets give him 6tds and 200 carries more in 11 games( health allowing of course). This still gives him 1250 yds and 12 tds, which would firmly establish him as a top 10 back. That said , I would trade him for something more established if I could, but have no problem standing pat with him for the rest of the year. ( the bigest reason I wanted to trade him was his week 15/16 schedule of Tampa/Minn.) Edited October 6, 2008 by G.K.Trey Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belushi Posted October 6, 2008 Share Posted October 6, 2008 I'm not sure what you could trade Turner for that you would get value for. Lt's hurt, Westbrook is hurt. SJax? I'd rather have Turner. Portis? I'd probably do that. Barber? Probably do that. but there's not allot of guys, and I doubt you could get Portis or Barber for Turner. And his schedule really isn't bad. Two tough games against Chicago and Philly, but after that the Saints x2, Chargers, Broncos, Raiders. Weeks 15 and 16 suck, but not every RB can have an easy schedule. And to get to weeks 15 and 16 you have to make the playoffs, and I see no reason why Turner can't carry you there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 (edited) if only this were a sprint and not a marathon.... Riding this train. 971 yards and 9 TDs. Thanks Turner the Burner! Edited November 18, 2008 by WaterMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Belushi Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 I think I'm benching Turner for Grant this week. This looks like one of Turner's "off" games against a good D, although they did give up allot of yards to K. Smith last week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 (edited) I think I'm benching Turner for Grant this week. This looks like one of Turner's "off" games against a good D, although they did give up allot of yards to K. Smith last week. If anything goes against his numbers it will be because Atlanta's D can't stop Carolina. They have to sell out to either the pass or the run. Last game Atlanta couldn't stop Carolina's offense. Edited November 18, 2008 by WaterMan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Riding this train. 971 yards and 9 TDs. Thanks Turner the Burner! he's still ranked exactly the 15th RB in my local.... right where I expected him to be...only lower... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 If anything goes against his numbers it will be because Atlanta's D can't stop Carolina. They have to sell out to either the pass or the run. Last game Atlanta couldn't stop Carolina's offense. I dunno, Carolina has a stout run defense and the Falcons really only have 1 WR worth worrying about and nobody seems to be able to stop him from getting either 100yds or a TD....or both... but I'd expect this to be a game where Turner gets less than 60 yds rushing.... the good thing is he has his next 2 games against weak defenses......but the following 2 (Fantasy playoff games) don't look so friendly... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 I think I'm benching Turner for Grant this week. This looks like one of Turner's "off" games against a good D, although they did give up allot of yards to K. Smith last week. right now you're in a land of luxury with both of those backs to choose from.... this week Grant should be good for you... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrick35 Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 he's still ranked exactly the 15th RB in my local.... right where I expected him to be...only lower... Are you in a PPR league? My league is not and Turner is ranked a lot higher than 15th. He 8th in my league, and it is imprtant to add that he is only 9 points from being ranked #1 at RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaterMan Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Are you in a PPR league? My league is not and Turner is ranked a lot higher than 15th. He 8th in my league, and it is imprtant to add that he is only 9 points from being ranked #1 at RB. He's rated 4th RB in my league. But don't let me #1 ranked team tell you that, Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 Are you in a PPR league? My league is not and Turner is ranked a lot higher than 15th. He 8th in my league, and it is imprtant to add that he is only 9 points from being ranked #1 at RB. yeah it's a PPR....and how is he 7 spots from a #1 and only 9 points away from him?.... but umm...he's 23 pts higher than Steven Jackson....here's the top 15 RB's in my local... Barber 247 Forte 236 Gore 234 Peterson 210 Portis 208 Tomlinson 202 TJones 200 MJD 196 Lynch 194 Slaton 189 CJohnson 188 Brown 186 Bush 185 Westbrook 182 Turner 180 I figured he would finish around 12th....and he still can, but his playoff matchups will try their damnedest to prevent that since he plays the Bucs and then at the Vikings... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrick35 Posted November 18, 2008 Share Posted November 18, 2008 (edited) yeah it's a PPR....and how is he 7 spots from a #1 and only 9 points away from him?.... Well simple math would say that 9 points is enough to allow 2 people to be separated by 7 places but throw in decimal scoring and it allows for a lot more. The Top 8 RB's in my league are Portis - 161.9 Gore - 155.9 T. Jones - 155.3 MBIII - 155.2 Jacobs - 155 Peterson - 154.5 Forte - 153.9 Turner - 152.2 We award .1 pt for each yard rec & rush and 6 pts for each TD and negative yds are deducted and lost fumbles are -3, passing yds count .05 per yd and int's are -3 if a RB should throw a pass. 2 pt conversions get them 2 points. Just out of curiosity what kind of bonuses does your league give because even if I add a ppr for MBIII that only brings him up to 194.2 and that is still 50 points less than he has in your league. Edited November 18, 2008 by Jrick35 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avernus Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 (edited) Well simple math would say that 9 points is enough to allow 2 people to be separated by 7 places but throw in decimal scoring and it allows for a lot more. The Top 8 RB's in my league are Portis - 161.9 Gore - 155.9 T. Jones - 155.3 MBIII - 155.2 Jacobs - 155 Peterson - 154.5 Forte - 153.9 Turner - 152.2 We award .1 pt for each yard rec & rush and 6 pts for each TD and negative yds are deducted and lost fumbles are -3, passing yds count .05 per yd and int's are -3 if a RB should throw a pass. 2 pt conversions get them 2 points. Just out of curiosity what kind of bonuses does your league give because even if I add a ppr for MBIII that only brings him up to 194.2 and that is still 50 points less than he has in your league. "simple math" isn't the argument...my point being....what scoring system would have the top 8 RB's less than 10 pts within eachother?...but what you said just explained it....I haven't seen a scoring system that had all these guys so close to one another... and my scoring rewards players for long distance TD's and for performing out of position IE: a RB who throws or catches...plus the TD's are worth more in this case as well... Edited November 19, 2008 by Avernus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Irish Doggy Posted November 19, 2008 Share Posted November 19, 2008 I'm sold on the whole Atlanta team at this point. Too bad I didn't ride Turner instead of Addai early in the year. I might actually be contending for a playoff spot. At least its a keeper league... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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