Jets_Fan_NC Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Gentlemen, I am in PPR league where we will protect four players from last year's roster heading into this season. Three of my four are as follows: Andre Johnson Steven Jackson Marshawn Lynch For my fourth, I must choose from the following: Jay Cutler (How far does he drop going to the Bears?) Anthony Gonzalez (I think he could produce Top 10 numbers this year.) Ray Rice (Could emerge as primary RB in Baltimore this year and long term.) Thomas Jones (I have read the Jets will rotate three RBs. Also, Jones is 31.) One other note to consider, next year - and each year thereafter - we will protect five players MAX. I would REALLY appreciate any / all insight! Good luck to all this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Scoring system? Lineup Requirements? What pick do you have in the first round? Any cost associated with each keeper? Must you keep 4? Those answers will help drive the advice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jets_Fan_NC Posted July 11, 2009 Author Share Posted July 11, 2009 Scoring system?Lineup Requirements? What pick do you have in the first round? Any cost associated with each keeper? Must you keep 4? Those answers will help drive the advice. We start 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 DEF/ST 6 PTs for every Passing, Rec, Rush TD 9 Pts for every TD of +50 YDS 3 Pts for 100 Yds Rushing 1 Pt per Reception 1 Pt for every 10 Yds Rec / Rush 1 Pt for every 25 Yds Passing I have the #9 position in the draft in a 10-team league. We must keep 4 and there is no cost. Thanks! P.S. Plax would have been my 4th keeper, but we know how that ended... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donutrun Jellies Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Regardless of details, the answer is NOT Thomas Jones. With Jackson & Lynch, the need for Ray Rice at this unproven stage in his career is less -- unless everyone is keeping many RBs, in which case, he'd be a consideration. Cutler in Chitown s and unknown, again, it would help to know who's likely to be keeping who and where you draft ... AGon has youth on his side -- but good enough for a keeper #2 wr? Maybe .... Any chance of a package deal that gets you a better 4th keeper? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jeff5769 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 I would try to package Marshawn and someone else for a more legit rb2 but with these choices you have to keep Cutler. To me, Cutler is the only guy worth using a "4th round pick" on of the bunch Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Barring being able to make a two or even three for one trade for a player improvement, I keep Gonzalez given the league setup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 6 points for a passing TD. You must have a good QB in that scoring system. You'll find that they will be the highest scoring players in your league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 11, 2009 Share Posted July 11, 2009 Out of those choices I would go with Cutler or try to trade for a better QB/WR to keep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 12, 2009 Share Posted July 12, 2009 (edited) 6 points for a passing TD. You must have a good QB in that scoring system. You'll find that they will be the highest scoring players in your league]. This has minimal affect on player value. Edited July 12, 2009 by Big Country Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 This has minimal affect on player value. 1 Brees, Drew QB NOR 424.75 2 Rivers, Philip QB SDG 387.65 3 Rodgers, Aaron QB GNB 387.30 4 Cutler, Jay QB DEN 372.50 5 Warner, Kurt QB ARI 368.10 6 Manning, Peyton QB IND 348.70 7 McNabb, Donovan QB PHI 329.20 8 Cassel, Matt QB KAN 323.75 9 Johnson, Andre WR HOU 320.50 10 Fitzgerald, Larry WR ARI 311.10 11 Williams, DeAngelo RB CAR 307.90 12 Forte, Matt RB CHI 304.50 13 Pennington, Chad QB MIA 293.65 14 Romo, Tony QB DAL 291.80 15 Garrard, David QB JAC 283.60 16 Johnson, Calvin WR DET 281.00 17 Thigpen, Tyler QB KAN 279.70 18 Jones-Drew, Maurice RB JAC 278.90 19 Turner, Michael RB ATL 278.00 20 Tomlinson, LaDainian RB SDG 277.60 These were the final results in my PPR 6 pt per TD league last year. As you can see the elite QB's significantly outscore elite RB's and WR's in this scoring format. However, I also believe Big Country has a solid point too. As long as a team doesn't pile up their QB's, most teams in the league will have an "elite" QB on their roster. I learned the hard way last year. I decided to go with the "a QB is a QB' approach. I got burned in this league. I ended up trading for Favre, started Thigpen most of the year and finished with a mediocre record. I won the league a few years back, largely in part to Carson Palmers consistent play. So, for this year, I traded B.Edwards and Reggie Bush for Brees and am very happy with it. Just my Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 13, 2009 Share Posted July 13, 2009 It is the spread in scoring within the position that determines value, not the total points (caveat being a scoring system that skews scores for one position so that they are extremely higher as a whole vs other positions throws this off). In general, QBs score very close to each other. A switch from 4 to 6 pt TDs is a change of what, maybe 20 points over the season when looking at a spread of QBs with 30 to 20 Passing TDs, which covers the majority of fantasy starters... About one point per game, not a real significant change to value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 (edited) It is the spread in scoring within the position that determines value, not the total points (caveat being a scoring system that skews scores for one position so that they are extremely higher as a whole vs other positions throws this off). In general, QBs score very close to each other. A switch from 4 to 6 pt TDs is a change of what, maybe 20 points over the season when looking at a spread of QBs with 30 to 20 Passing TDs, which covers the majority of fantasy starters... About one point per game, not a real significant change to value. Top QB 425. Top RB 308. That's a HUGH difference. I understand what you're saying, and I agree. My original post stated the importance of an elite QB. Edited July 15, 2009 by fitzkek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 15, 2009 Share Posted July 15, 2009 Top QB 425. Top RB 308. That's a HUGH difference. I understand what you're saying, and I agree. My original post stated the importance of an elite QB. And a 150 point spread from the #1 to #12 QB, but, out of curiosity (assuming a 12 team, 2 RB league) what did the #24 RB score? From the few guys you posted, the top RB has 4 guys within 30 points of him. Now Brees had a spectacular year, but looking at the #2-6 QBs is a spread of only 40 points (and you start presumable twice as many RBs), so this partially illustrates the point that just because a position scores more, it does not neccessarily contribute more to value. Also, the 6th QB is usually taken when, in the 4th or 5th round, the 12th RB maybe in the mid 2nd round. It would be interesting to do some basic calcs with the actuals. Just some food for thought Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Is that the mindset of Value Based Drafting? I've been trying to figure that out. You're explanation makes perfect sense. My gut feelings are coming from me scrambling so much last season chasing a QB that could keep pace with the others in my league. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheEnabler Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 I would role with cutler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted July 16, 2009 Share Posted July 16, 2009 Is that the mindset of Value Based Drafting? I've been trying to figure that out. You're explanation makes perfect sense. My gut feelings are coming from me scrambling so much last season chasing a QB that could keep pace with the others in my league. In a nutshell, yes. You look for where the dropoffs are and avoid them. So, let's say you have 3 QBs on the board with relatively close values based on your projections. You then have 1 WR in a value tier above the next group of 3-4 WRs, but all below the QBs in "value". Two teams pick after you (ie, you have the 10th pick in a 12 team draft). Who do you take? Me personally, I take the WR, as one of the QBs is almost certain to fall to me in the next round, and I have maximized my overall value. Basically, my approach is to use the value analysis to help pinpoint where I see the dropoffs at each position as well as see what positions are offering the value, then I group players into "value" tiers within their position. Then the flow of the draft and draft strategy kick in, such as the scenario above. Now, if we were in a spot going the other way, and there was going to be 9 teams picking twice between us, the answer may well be take one of the QBs and then dip into the next tier for the WR with your next pick. You have to look at the dropoffs, make some predictions of what you expect to come off the board between your picks, and ideally take the path the leads to the greatest overall value for yourr team, even if at times it means selecting a player with lower "value" with the immediate pick if the net of the picks is greater overall value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fitzkek Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 (edited) Thanks Biggie. Very helpful. Edited July 17, 2009 by fitzkek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Wolf Posted July 17, 2009 Share Posted July 17, 2009 Gentlemen, I am in PPR league where we will protect four players from last year's roster heading into this season. Three of my four are as follows: Andre Johnson Steven Jackson Marshawn Lynch For my fourth, I must choose from the following: Jay Cutler (How far does he drop going to the Bears?) Anthony Gonzalez (I think he could produce Top 10 numbers this year.) Ray Rice (Could emerge as primary RB in Baltimore this year and long term.) Thomas Jones (I have read the Jets will rotate three RBs. Also, Jones is 31.) One other note to consider, next year - and each year thereafter - we will protect five players MAX. I would REALLY appreciate any / all insight! Good luck to all this year. I havt to go AGon here. TJ is a no brainer to eliminate. I like Rice but hate the logjam at the position in Baltimore, so he is out. Despite your scoring, I cannot keep Cutler as I am a value-buying QB guy. You'd start with four solid starters at the two most important positions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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