A Democrat Governor in Texas?

[bpwallace49]

Can a Democrat Become Governor in Texas?

 

When Texas Gov. Rick Perry scored a convincing win earlier this month over U.S. Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, his rival for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, talk of a possible 2012 Perry presidential push began. But before Perry can stride into the national arena he must win re-election this fall in what some say will be his toughest face-off with a Democrat yet - against former Houston mayor Bill White. Indeed, political analyst Charlie Cook has moved the Texas governor's race from "leaning Republican" to "toss-up" status.

 

 

White supporters point to his strong base in Houston (the state's largest city), his family roots in San Antonio and his ability to speak fluent Spanish which is seen as a draw in the bluest part of the state, south Texas. The most recent poll by Rasmussen showed Perry with a 49%-to-43% lead over White. The popular ex-mayor, who served in the Clinton Administration as deputy secretary of energy, may still be considered an underdog, according to Richard Murray, political scientist at the University of Houston, but he has "a real chance of winning." Murray expects White to have adequate campaign funding due to his connections with deep-pocket donors, support from the Democratic Governors' Association and, perhaps, even his own personal resources - he gave his own first mayoral campaign a $2 million kick start. (White, a lawyer, worked for an oil company and then ran a Houston energy investment group after leaving the White House.) Plus, White is a disciplined campaigner who will run a focused campaign, Murray says. (See how Rick Perr turned around the GOP battle for Texas.)

 

 

Still, some longtime Texas observers are not buying into rosy scenarios for Perry's challenger. "It is going to be uphill for White to win," says Cal Jillson, political scientist at Southern Methodist University in Dallas. "Texas is the largest red state in the country. It tends to vote Republican by an eight, nine, ten points margin." That is in a normal year, Jillson says, not one where the political mood is downright rebellious.

 

 

That said, Jillson adds, it is only March and a significant Perry stumble or a major scandal could impact the race. Focus and discipline will be crucial in what will be long, hot summer. Old Democratic hands like Garry Mauro, the gubernatorial candidate who was crushed at the polls by then Gov. George W. Bush, are warning White he must define himself early, before Perry does and not let them tie him to Washington, a tactic that mortally wounded the campaign of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in her primary run against the governor. But that mantra has already begun with the Perry camp dubbing White an Obama advisor and emphasizing his ties to the Clinton Administration.

 

 

In an email to supporters, Dave Carney, Perry's longtime political advisor, described White as a "hapless opponent" who has "morphed into a combination of Jimmy Carter, Mike Dukakis, Al Gore and John Kerry rolled into one who's trying to avoid letting voters know where he really stands." The Perry camp also blasted White for refusing to release his income tax forms in an attempt to keep voters in the dark about how White "amassed a fortune after years of public service," Carney wrote. That was just the first week of the campaign.

 

 

White has tried to take advantage of a potential $11-billion state budget shortfall, deriding Perry's support for a 5% across the board budget scrub as "Soviet-style" management. Unfortunately, his criticism of Perry's style also was accompanied with a refusal to rule out tax increases - a position the Perry campaign pounced on. Perry pollster Mike Baselice, says White's support for taxes, national health care reform and cap and trade legislation help define him as a "McGovern liberal."

 

 

Democrats are hoping the campaign of Linda Chavez-Thompson, a Mexican-American activist and union leader who is running for lieutenant governor, will boost the Hispanic turnout - and White's chances. However, the presence of a Hispanic candidate high on the ballot has not proved to be the door opener for Democrats in recent Texas elections. In 2002, Perry handily beat millionaire South Texas businessman Tony Sanchez in the governor's race, 58% to 40% even after Sanchez spent $75 million, much of it his own money, in the campaign. A Democratic Hispanic candidate for lieutenant governor lost by roughly the same margin in 2006.

 

 

And Perry has been courting Hispanic voters in South Texas, Jillson notes, by sending discretionary law enforcement grants to local sheriffs who are often major players in South Texas politics. The notion that the Hispanics vote is a Democratic bloc is also debatable. A poll commissioned by state legislators across the country who serve on the Board of Hispanic Caucus Chairs, released just before the March 7 primary, indicated 54% of Texas Hispanics identified themselves as conservative and 23% said they might participate in the Republican primary (Perry got the nod two-to-one over Hutchison among that group). (What's all that secession ruckus in Texas?)

 

 

State Senator Leticia Van de Putte, a San Antonio Democrat and board member, told the Dallas Morning News that Perry does well with some Hispanics because he often visits their communities and has distanced himself from immigration hardliners by criticizing Washington's push for a border wall, opting for hi-tech border controls and boosts to local sheriff's budgets. He also touts his support for a 2001 bill that allowed the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition at state colleges.

 

 

Democrats argue that Perry has come close to vulnerable before, citing the 2006 election when he squeaked back into the governor's mansion with just 39% of the vote. But that was a race that included three other major candidates with widespread appeal - Democrat Chris Bell who got 28% of the vote; renegade Democrat-turned-Republican-turned Independent Carole Strayhorn who garnered 18%; and songwriter/novelist Kinky Friedman who won 12%. Short of a scandal, Perry's base seems secure. Democrats are hoping that the election might reflect voter weariness with Perry who has served almost 10 years in the office. But in the recent primary, Perry won handily by tapping voter discontent with Washington, not Austin.

 

 

Perry has cast himself as a champion of Texas "values" and, after all, he has spent 25 years in Austin - first as a state legislator, then agriculture commissioner, followed by lieutenant governor and then governor. A recent Texas Politics Project poll showed 88% of Republicans support the notion that Washington and other states could learn something from Texas government, as do a third of Texas Democrats. That's a third Bill White will have to woo, along with attracting independents to his cause in a year where, as Perry pollster Mike Baselice says, "The Republicans have the wind at their backs."

 

Perch can you confirm the bolded part? The part about Texas having an 11 billion state budget shortfall? Is that for real?

 

I thought Illinois and California were the only two states that deep in the hole . . .

[Perchoutofwater]

The budget shortfall is about right, but most if not all off it can be made up by the rainy day fund. Texas has finally started to feel the pain the rest of the nation has been feeling, but I'm not to concerned about her solvency, and I don't think anyone else is either. Part of the issue is Texas only makes it's budgets every two years so it isn't as flexible as it could be.

 

Anyway there is no way in HELL White wins. As much apathy as I and most Texans have for Perry, Texas will not vote for a liberal like White. White may win the Houston and Austin areas but the majority of Texas is still as conservative as ever. White might have had a chance 4 years ago, but with crap that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi are trying to pull no self respecting Texan is going to vote for a liberal.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

Talk about liberal...

 

He also touts his support for a 2001 bill that allowed the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition at state colleges.

 

Hey Sailor! New in town??????

[bpwallace49]

The budget shortfall is about right, but most if not all off it can be made up by the rainy day fund. Texas has finally started to feel the pain the rest of the nation has been feeling, but I'm not to concerned about her solvency, and I don't think anyone else is either. Part of the issue is Texas only makes it's budgets every two years so it isn't as flexible as it could be.

 

Anyway there is no way in HELL White wins. As much apathy as I and most Texans have for Perry, Texas will not vote for a liberal like White. White may win the Houston and Austin areas but the majority of Texas is still as conservative as ever. White might have had a chance 4 years ago, but with crap that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi are trying to pull no self respecting Texan is going to vote for a liberal.

 

Perry does well with some Hispanics because he often visits their communities and has distanced himself from immigration hardliners by criticizing Washington's push for a border wall, opting for hi-tech border controls and boosts to local sheriff's budgets. He also touts his support for a 2001 bill that allowed the children of illegal immigrants to pay in-state tuition at state colleges

 

Soooo THIS is the guy you support Perch?

[Pope Flick]

Meh. I grew up in the Texas of Mark White and Ann Richards. Mark White defeated the only Republican governor in Texas since reconstruction. You should learn your history before tossing histrionics.

 

ReblicaZOMGovernor!

[Chavez]

Soooo THIS is the guy you support Perch?

Stop it, you'll make his head explode.

[CaP'N GRuNGe]

And then there's this little gem...

 

And Perry has been courting Hispanic voters in South Texas, Jillson notes, by sending discretionary law enforcement grants to local sheriffs who are often major players in South Texas politics.

[SEC=UGA]

Texans saw "White" on the poll and got confused?

[detlef]

Meh. I grew up in the Texas of Mark White and Ann Richards. Mark White defeated the only Republican governor in Texas since reconstruction. You should learn your history before tossing histrionics.

 

ReblicaZOMGovernor!

Yep, sounds like NC. This was the first year since 76 where the state voted Blue for POTUS and has had a pretty long string of Democratic Governors.

[wirehairman]

Soooo THIS is the guy you support Perch?

 

I believe Perch said:

 

Anyway there is no way in HELL White wins. As much apathy as I and most Texans have for Perry, Texas will not vote for a liberal like White. White may win the Houston and Austin areas but the majority of Texas is still as conservative as ever. White might have had a chance 4 years ago, but with crap that Obama, Reid, and Pelosi are trying to pull no self respecting Texan is going to vote for a liberal.

 

But feel free to spin away . . .

[Perchoutofwater]

Soooo THIS is the guy you support Perch?

 

I voted against him in the primary. I haven't nor do I plan on sending him a dime. As I said in my original post most Texans are apathetic towards him. Ill probably vote for him just because he beats the alternative. Ill have to see what third parties make the ticket before I know for sure.

 

Meh. I grew up in the Texas of Mark White and Ann Richards. Mark White defeated the only Republican governor in Texas since reconstruction. You should learn your history before tossing histrionics.

 

ReblicaZOMGovernor!

 

As I said in my original post he probably could have won four years ago, but thanks to Obama, Pelosi, and Creighton he doesn't stand a snowballs chance in Hell. You might want to check your reading comprehension before questioning me on Texas history.

[Pope Flick]

I voted against him in the primary. I haven't nor do I plan on sending him a dime. As I said in my original post most Texans are apathetic towards him. Ill probably vote for him just because he beats the alternative. Ill have to see what third parties make the ticket before I know for sure.

 

 

 

As I said in my original post he probably could have won four years ago, but thanks to Obama, Pelosi, and Creighton he doesn't stand a snowballs chance in Hell. You might want to check your reading comprehension before questioning me on Texas history.

 

 

Perhaps if you were to check YOUR reading comprehension you'd realize I was making fun of someone who found it surprising Texas could have a democratic governor, sparky.

[Perchoutofwater]

Perhaps if you were to check YOUR reading comprehension you'd realize I was making fun of someone who found it surprising Texas could have a democratic governor, sparky.

 

You will note I said 4 years ago he would have a chance, but given the current political environment with Obama, Reid, and Pelosi trying to ram health care down our throats there isn't a snowballs chance in hell that a democrat gets elected. Seems like a reasonable statement. I didn't say Texas never had a Dem governor, I too remember White and Richards. I would be shocked if a Dem were to win this election. You just need to admit you jumped in half cocked trying to embarrass me, and ended up looking like a fool yourself.

[Beaumont]

You will note I said 4 years ago he would have a chance, but given the current political environment with Obama, Reid, and Pelosi trying to ram health care down our throats there isn't a snowballs chance in hell that a democrat gets elected. Seems like a reasonable statement. I didn't say Texas never had a Dem governor, I too remember White and Richards. I would be shocked if a Dem were to win this election. You just need to admit you jumped in half cocked trying to embarrass me, and ended up looking like a fool yourself.

 

Texas has not elected a democrat to any statewide office in many years so Perch is making a somewhat safe assumption. HOWEVER the tide is turning the opposite direction in TX. Both Houston and Dallas metro areas (not even talking about Austin) have seen many republicans swept out of power, particularly judges, and the demographics of Texas in general are clearly trending to the dems.

 

But there is a long way to go before statewide offices are regularly up for grabs.

[WaterMan]

Texans saw "White" on the poll and got confused?

 

I see. They saw it. They didn't read it. Two jokes in one.

[Pope Flick]

You will note I said 4 years ago he would have a chance, but given the current political environment with Obama, Reid, and Pelosi trying to ram health care down our throats there isn't a snowballs chance in hell that a democrat gets elected. Seems like a reasonable statement. I didn't say Texas never had a Dem governor, I too remember White and Richards. I would be shocked if a Dem were to win this election. You just need to admit you jumped in half cocked trying to embarrass me, and ended up looking like a fool yourself.

 

For the second time - I wasn't even talking to you, moran. I was talking to bp. Talk about reading comprehension.

 

It isn't ALWAYS about you here perch. Do you realize that?