Need some keeper help

[jeff5769]

Need some help determining my keepers for this upcoming season. Have to keep 5 and there is no cost for keeping any player.

 

Possible choices-Ray Rice, Brandon Marshall, Desean Jackson, Phillip RIvers, Beanie Wells, Pierre Thomas, Steve Smith(NYG), or Mike Sims-Walker

I think Im deffinitely keeping Ray RIce, Brandon Marshall, and Desean Jackson

 

Scoring 1 pt per 20 rush/rec yard 1 pt per 50 pass 6 pt all tds

[tazinib1]

What is your draft position and how many people in the league?

 

Also, what are starting requirements?

Edited May 26, 2010 by tazinib1

[Big Country]

What is your draft position and how many people in the league?

 

Also, what are starting requirements?

 

 

These, though Opie's advice is good when not taking these factors into consideration.

 

Also, who do you expect to be the top available players at QB/RB/WR?

[jeff5769]

I have 8th pick, 12 team league

start qb rb rb wr wr wr rb/wr te

As far as best players available I expect obv ryan matthews to be the top rb in the draft and other then that nobody ranked inside the top 20 rb wise best wrs available outside of dez would be both steve smiths Im expecting

as far as qb the best one available will probably be jay cutler and kevin kolb

[tazinib1]

8th pick in a 12 team league isn't bad.

 

With that, I'd keep Rivers,Rice,Marshall,D.Jackson,Sims-Walker

 

Starting 3 WR's pretty much makes this a no-brainer. I will gather that alot of #2 RB's will be thrown back into the pool and you might actually get a better RB than Beanie the Weanie at 1.8 anyway.

 

BC might argue but keeping Rivers with that scoring system is a slam dunk.

[Big Country]

8th pick in a 12 team league isn't bad.

 

With that, I'd keep Rivers,Rice,Marshall,D.Jackson,Sims-Walker

 

Starting 3 WR's pretty much makes this a no-brainer. I will gather that alot of #2 RB's will be thrown back into the pool and you might actually get a better RB than Beanie the Weanie at 1.8 anyway.

 

BC might argue but keeping Rivers with that scoring system is a slam dunk.

 

I'm not gonna argue the Rivers point, but the scoring system has very little affect on value and is pretty much a non-factor in the reasoning to keep him. The reason to keep him is based on the fact that that it appears a number of QBs are being protected if Cutler and Kolb will likely be the best available, so I'd much rather lock up Rivers then gamble on what may be available at 8.

 

It also sounds like most of the RBs are being protected, so there should be some decent WR value there. Assuming no PPR as it was not mentioned in he scoring system, I actually would lean towards locking up a decent RB2 with my keepers, and then have the flexibility of going BPA at the 8 as you could address your WR3 spot, your flex spot with an RB if value presents itself or grab a TE if a top one is available.

[tazinib1]

I'm not gonna argue the Rivers point, but the scoring system has very little affect on value and is pretty much a non-factor in the reasoning to keep him.

 

Is it time for our yearly debate already?

 

How is 1pt for 50yds passing and 6pts per TD not a reason to keep a top 5 QB? Given Rivers history, thats an AVERAGE of 18pts per week.

[Big Country]

Is it time for our yearly debate already?

 

How is 1pt for 50yds passing and 6pts per TD not a reason to keep a top 5 QB? Given Rivers history, thats an AVERAGE of 18pts per week.

 

What is the scoring for the top 12 QBs, the top 24 RBs, the top 36 WRs and the top 12 TEs, and how much is the point differential within each position?

 

1 pt per 50 is not very generous to passing yarage when the standard is 1 per 20 or 25, though that is augmented in this scenario by the fact that rushing/receiving is 1 per 20 instead of 1 per 10.

 

6 pt Tds have been shown many times to have almost no affect on value, as EVERY QB gets 6 pts per TD, and, last year for example, the difference between the #1 and #12 QB in terms of TD passes (a stat in which Rivers ranked 6th) was 8 TDs (1 pt per game) over the course of the entire season.

 

Yardage sees about a 1000 yard difference between the #1 yardage guy and the #12 yardage guy, or a difference of 20 points over the course of the entire season, slightly more than 1 pt per game (and if there is not decimal scoring involved, it is likely even less than that as a full 50 yards would be needed to get the point each week).

 

Ok, just plugged this scoring into the huddle's handy myhuddle app, and for 2009, the #1 QB in this scoring system (Aaron Rodgers) had 314 pts (just realized he had some nice rushing numbers last year ) and the #12 QB had (Kurt Warner) had 232 points, a difference of 82 points, or 5 pts per game from the #1 QB to the #12 QB. Phillip Rivers was #7 last year with 262 points, about 3PPG better than #12.

 

Now, if the only change we make is to have passing TDs be worth 4 points (as your seem to be insinuating that the difference from 4 to 6 pt TDs has a big affect on value), the #1 Qb (still Rodgers) scores 254 points and the #12 QB (still Warner) scores 180 points, or a difference of 74 points, or, basically, that same 5 points per game we had.... essentially no change at all in the value of these players.

 

Now, if we change the yardage to be the more common 1 pt per 25 yards passing (I'll keep TDs at 6, as I believe I have clearly illustrated that the 4 or 6 pt TDs have minimal effect on QB value), the #1 Qb is still Rodgers, now with 403 points, and the #12 Qb is Warner, now with 307 points, a difference of 96 points or about 6 PPG.

 

For comparisons sake, as that is what valuation is used for, to compare across positions, looking at the top 24 RBs with the given scoring system of 1 pt per 20 yards and 6 pts per TD, we go from a #1 (Chris Johnson) with 221 points to a #24 (Jerome Harrison) with 96 points, a difference of 125 points or just under an 8PPG difference, an even greater difference than when we adjust QBs to be 1 pt per 25 yards (possible argument for a change to standard scoring rules?). If we change this to the more common 1 pt per 10 yards, Johnson is still #1, now with 347 pts, and #24 is still Harrison, now with 150 points, a difference of 197 pts, or a little over 12 pts. per game.

 

Hopefully this clearly demonstrates why the scoring system truly has a very minimal affect on QB values, while at the same time having the ability to be a greater influence on the value of other positions, though, the stronger factor in value is the lineup requirements.

 

 

 

ETA: Jeff5769, apologies for the thread hijack here.

Edited May 26, 2010 by Big Country

[tazinib1]

What is the scoring for the top 12 QBs, the top 24 RBs, the top 36 WRs and the top 12 TEs, and how much is the point differential within each position?

 

1 pt per 50 is not very generous to passing yarage when the standard is 1 per 20 or 25, though that is augmented in this scenario by the fact that rushing/receiving is 1 per 20 instead of 1 per 10.

 

6 pt Tds have been shown many times to have almost no affect on value, as EVERY QB gets 6 pts per TD, and, last year for example, the difference between the #1 and #12 QB in terms of TD passes (a stat in which Rivers ranked 6th) was 8 TDs (1 pt per game) over the course of the entire season.

 

Yardage sees about a 1000 yard difference between the #1 yardage guy and the #12 yardage guy, or a difference of 20 points over the course of the entire season, slightly more than 1 pt per game (and if there is not decimal scoring involved, it is likely even less than that as a full 50 yards would be needed to get the point each week).

 

Ok, just plugged this scoring into the huddle's handy myhuddle app, and for 2009, the #1 QB in this scoring system (Aaron Rodgers) had 314 pts (just realized he had some nice rushing numbers last year ) and the #12 QB had (Kurt Warner) had 232 points, a difference of 82 points, or 5 pts per game from the #1 QB to the #12 QB. Phillip Rivers was #7 last year with 262 points, about 3PPG better than #12.

 

Now, if the only change we make is to have passing TDs be worth 4 points (as your seem to be insinuating that the difference from 4 to 6 pt TDs has a big affect on value), the #1 Qb (still Rodgers) scores 254 points and the #12 QB (still Warner) scores 180 points, or a difference of 74 points, or, basically, that same 5 points per game we had.... essentially no change at all in the value of these players.

 

Now, if we change the yardage to be the more common 1 pt per 25 yards passing (I'll keep TDs at 6, as I believe I have clearly illustrated that the 4 or 6 pt TDs have minimal effect on QB value), the #1 Qb is still Rodgers, now with 403 points, and the #12 Qb is Warner, now with 307 points, a difference of 96 points or about 6 PPG.

 

For comparisons sake, as that is what valuation is used for, to compare across positions, looking at the top 24 RBs with the given scoring system of 1 pt per 20 yards and 6 pts per TD, we go from a #1 (Chris Johnson) with 221 points to a #24 (Jerome Harrison) with 96 points, a difference of 125 points or just under an 8PPG difference, an even greater difference than when we adjust QBs to be 1 pt per 25 yards (possible argument for a change to standard scoring rules?). If we change this to the more common 1 pt per 10 yards, Johnson is still #1, now with 347 pts, and #24 is still Harrison, now with 150 points, a difference of 197 pts, or a little over 12 pts. per game.

 

Hopefully this clearly demonstrates why the scoring system truly has a very minimal affect on QB values, while at the same time having the ability to be a greater influence on the value of other positions, though, the stronger factor in value is the lineup requirements.

 

 

 

ETA: Jeff5769, apologies for the thread hijack here.

 

:handsoverears:

 

Blah blah blah blah blah...can't hear you!! Blah blah blah blah

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[dynastyguru32]

If it were me I would keep Rice, Jackson, Wells, Rivers & Marshall. These are the best players that you have so I would keep them. If you are worried about wr's then maybe you could trade wells and the 1.08 for a wr and move up in 1st round as well.

[Perchoutofwater]

You can start three running backs, all three that you have are top 20 running backs. I'd definitely keep all three running backs, Jackson, and then either choose between Marshall and Rivers. I typically don't value QB's as much as most people, so I'd probably keep Marshall over Rivers. In redrafts I rarely take a QB before the 6th round, so that gives you an idea of how I value QB's. If you keep all your RBs not only do you help your team but that means you are really putting other teams in a bind, plus you have insurance if one of them gets hurt. If what you are saying is true about what will be available when you draft then you would be looking at team like this:

 

Rice, Wells, Thomas, Jackson, Marshall, Kolb / Cutler.

 

That is what I would do, but even if you keep Rivers and you could get one of the Smiths you wouldn't be much worse. I just don't see how you can not keep all three running backs, particularly when you can start three.

[Scooby's Hubby]

with your draft spot, you almost have to keep Rivers...steve smith is very tempting, but may be available, especially if there are no Top 5 QBs left as for other owners may run on QBs like Schaub, etc. and those who keep Qbs are certainly going to take a Beanie Wells or Steve Smith.

Edited June 4, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[Scooby's Hubby]

If it were me I would keep Rice, Jackson, Wells, Rivers & Marshall. These are the best players that you have so I would keep them. If you are worried about wr's then maybe you could trade wells and the 1.08 for a wr and move up in 1st round as well.

+ IMO

[BearBroncos]

If it were me I would keep Rice, Jackson, Wells, Rivers & Marshall. These are the best players that you have so I would keep them. If you are worried about wr's then maybe you could trade wells and the 1.08 for a wr and move up in 1st round as well.

 

This would be my position as well. It gives you 2 solid receivers, 2 solid RB's and one of the best QB's in the game, allowing you to use your picks for filler and flex holes.

[mrip]

You can start three running backs, all three that you have are top 20 running backs. I'd definitely keep all three running backs, Jackson, and then either choose between Marshall and Rivers. I typically don't value QB's as much as most people, so I'd probably keep Marshall over Rivers. In redrafts I rarely take a QB before the 6th round, so that gives you an idea of how I value QB's. If you keep all your RBs not only do you help your team but that means you are really putting other teams in a bind, plus you have insurance if one of them gets hurt. If what you are saying is true about what will be available when you draft then you would be looking at team like this:

 

Rice, Wells, Thomas, Jackson, Marshall, Kolb / Cutler.

 

That is what I would do, but even if you keep Rivers and you could get one of the Smiths you wouldn't be much worse. I just don't see how you can not keep all three running backs, particularly when you can start three.

 

 

+1