Flex question

[Gourdeau]

I am in a ten team non ppr league that starts 2x RB, 2x WR, 1 TE, and a WR/RB/TE flex option. I have the first overall pick in our serpentine draft, and during my SEVERAL mocks that i've done, I am noticing a trend that when I get to my sixth round pick, I am faced with the following scenario. In the first 5 rounds I end up with the same core of players on average.

 

Round 1- AP

 

Round 2- Roddy White

Round 3- Calvin Johnson or Brandon Marshall or Greg Jennings (who ever is left)

 

Round 4- Antonio Gates or Vernon Davis (on average its Gates)

Round 5- Knowshon Moreno or PIerre Thomas or Beanie Wells or J Stew, (who ever is left)

 

Round 6- I am faced with the opportunity to pick up a 2nd top TE, I have the option between Celek, Witten and Gonzalez.

Round 7- I pick up my # 3 RB which has been Addai/Forte/Jacobs/Barber (who ever is left)

 

Round 8- I draft my QB, Usually End up with Cutler or Manning or Flacco

Round 9- I pick up a fourth RB which is usually Justin Forsett

 

Round 10- I get Malcolm Floyd

Round 11- The best remaining QB, Usually Matt Ryan

 

The rest I fill in with the best value left on the board

 

My question is this, In Round 6, would it be more beneficial for me to pick up a second top TE, instead of a #3 receiver, which usually results in a Mike Wallace/ Santana Moss/ receiver in my #3 spot, where I could plug in the second TE as my flex.

Edited July 18, 2010 by Gourdeau

[ts]

Funny - when I read your post, I instantly thought of the "question to be answered" from a different angle, ie:

 

Rather than this question:

 

"My question is this, In Round 6, would it be more beneficial for me to pick up a second top TE, instead of a #3 receiver..."

 

I'd look at the decision based on this comment:

 

"Round 6- I am faced with the opportunity to pick up a 2nd top TE, I have the option between Celek, Witten and Gonzalez. Round 7- I pick up my # 3 RB which has been Addai/Forte/Jacobs/Barber (who ever is left)"

 

What if you swap your proposed round 6 & 7 positional targets? Meaning - if you target your #3 RB (and you can flex him, right?) in round 6 rather than round 7 - will you get anything resembling a "better" batch of RBs to choose from? Perhaps one of the RBs you mention (and that you don't grab in round 5) as likely being available in round 5 will fall to you in round 6?

 

If the answer is yes, then maybe that round 6 #3 RB will outperform your proposed 2nd TE in the flex spot, and you grab that 2nd TE (if available) in whatever round you can after 6, and if none of the "top TEs" are still there, you go with the "#3 WR" instead.

 

If nothing else, I'd suggest that thinking along the above lines (target RB as your flex, fall back to TE if you have to then punt to WR) would give you more flexibility on draft day, depending on how the dynamics of the draft actually unfold ... so if in round 6, no "decent RB3" types are on the board, grab the TE you are targeting ... who knows, if the other teams drafting are not in an immediate need of a TE by round 7, maybe you get the best of both worlds (better RB3 plus one of the TEs you originally mentioned) and even if you can't start both of those players each week, you are still maybe in a better place during the season to cover injuries / byes, have some trade bait, or just be able to better play situational matchups with your flex starter.

 

I'm sure you know - if there is anything you can count on during any FF draft, it's that it probably won't unfold exactly as you may have expected, no matter how many scenarios you might have mocked or planned out, so strategic flexibility on draft day is key. Anyways, maybe this will be some food for thought on an alternate, but similar, plan to the one that you've proposed above.

Edited July 18, 2010 by ts

[Big Country]

Ts -

 

In this specific scenario, swapping the round 6 and 7 is irrelevant, as they are back to back picks, however, in a general sense from other positions, it is a big consideration.

 

For the flex spot, value simply comes down to a matter of most points scored. If you believe those TEs will outscore the available RBs and WRs, then you do it for sure. In addition to being the best flex option, it keeps one of the better TEs out of an opponents lineup. If you don't believe the TE will outscore the available players at the other spots, than it doesn't help you directly as much other than keeping the TE off of another teams roster.

 

If your analysis leads you to the latter conclusion, then you may want to look not only at the RB/WR flex and depth options, but maybe consider how much improvement you could possibly get at QB by addressing the position 24 picks earlier.

 

Posting from phone, so will revisit this later when on computer to make sure I expressed myself clearly and hopefully gave some good food for thought.

[ts]

Hey BC, back at ya ... since you & I frequently seem to be on the same page regarding advice, I think we are saying the same thing generally speaking here, although perhaps expressing it in different ways. My comments about "swapping" the targeted positions in rounds 6 & 7 were based on the assumption that a RB of better enough quality to make the "swap" relevant would be available in round 6 but not in round 7, while one of the same TEs originally targeted by the OP in round 6 might still be available in round 7 ... if that ends up not being the situation, then the 6-7 targeted position swap does become pretty much a moot point.

 

Clearly, whether it be in round 6, 7 or whatever - especially since we are talking about the flex spot - you want to take the player projected to get you the most points, be it RB, TE or WR, based on the fact that the other starting lineup requirements have been met in previous rounds, and the plan of waiting until a later round to fill the QB position.

 

Now that I go back & re-read my original response, I can see that maybe I did not express that as clearly as I might have, instead getting focused on the notion that better value might be obtained overall by favoring or at least including a RB in the targeted player mix in the rounds being discussed, rather than limiting the round 6 position targets to TE & WR, as seemed to be the OPs plan, or at least the original basic question.

 

All in all, I'll happily concede that in this case, I think you expressed the goal more clearly than I did:

 

"For the flex spot, value simply comes down to a matter of most points scored. If you believe those TEs will outscore the available RBs and WRs, then you do it for sure."

Edited July 18, 2010 by ts

[Big Country]

Ts -

 

We are saying the same thing. What I am saying is that in this particular case, picking from the 1 slot, the 6th and 7th round picks are back to back, so it is an irrelevant point. If we were picking from the middle of the order, then it is a bigger factor. For this case, it is more a matter of valuating availability for the 6th and 7th compared to what will be there in the 8th and 9th, thus my comment about analyzing QB dropoff as well to evaluate that dropoff compared to the benefit of a stronger flex and6or extra RB depth

[Scooby's Hubby]

last year I wanted to do the Dallas Clark/Witten combo in a PPR that gave TE's 1.0 ppr vs. WRs who got 0.5 ppr. I missed my opportunity, but always wanted to try that angle. There is always someone who takes a TE as early as the 4th so it starts a run and would make you have to use 2 good picks.

Edited July 19, 2010 by Scooby's Hubby

[Go Skins]

If you get the right TE's, then a top TE is better than a #3 WR, IMO... last year I was lucky enough to have Gates and V. Davis on one team, and we can start a TE in the flex. Now, Davis wasn't a top pick last year like this year, so I didn't have to burn two decent picks, but I would've if I had known. So, best player available... if you can get a top-flight TE and treat him like a #3 WR, then I say do it - also makes for decent trade bait a few weeks in if need be...

[BS Miscreant]

One of my leagues has no required TE so many of my fellow owners overlook the position altogether. Each of the past three years I have drafted a high end TE during what would otherwise be a WR run. Quite simply because said TE offered more potential points than the RBs and WRs still available. This was mentioned earlier but I thought I'd simplify it... fewer words anyway...