Azazello1313 Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 When historians look back on this period, they will see it as another progressive era. It is not a liberal era — when government intervenes to seize wealth and power and distribute it to the have-nots. It’s not a conservative era, when the governing class concedes that the world is too complicated to be managed from the center. It’s a progressive era, based on the faith in government experts and their ability to use social science analysis to manage complex systems. This progressive era is being promulgated without much popular support. It’s being led by a large class of educated professionals, who have been trained to do technocratic analysis, who believe that more analysis and rule-writing is the solution to social breakdowns, and who have constructed ever-expanding networks of offices, schools and contracts. Already this effort is generating a fierce, almost culture-war-style backlash. It is generating a backlash among people who do not have faith in Washington, who do not have faith that trained experts have superior abilities to organize society, who do not believe national rules can successfully contend with the intricacies of local contexts and cultures. This progressive era amounts to a high-stakes test. If the country remains safe and the health care and financial reforms work, then we will have witnessed a life-altering event. We’ll have received powerful evidence that central regulations can successfully organize fast-moving information-age societies. If the reforms fail — if they kick off devastating unintended consequences or saddle the country with a maze of sclerotic regulations — then the popular backlash will be ferocious. Large sectors of the population will feel as if they were subjected to a doomed experiment they did not consent to. They will feel as if their country has been hijacked by a self-serving professional class mostly interested in providing for themselves. If that backlash gains strength, well, what’s the 21st-century version of the guillotine? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
driveby Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 Large sectors of the population will feel as if they were subjected to a doomed experiment they did not consent to. They will feel as if their country has been hijacked by a self-serving professional class mostly interested in providing for themselves. Seems to me this has happened a few times in the past and led to some pretty big wars or something? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 This is a pretty prescient observation by the author, IMO. I've been saying for a while that our political class has become (since the 50's or so) a group that thinks they have a right to rule like the divine right of kings. That they could make it a world of daisies and butterflies and rainbows for everyone if these meddlesome people didn't complain about their taxes, and those people weren't so worried about their rights. And it's BOTH sides of the aisle, believe me. Newt Gingrich was every bit as imperious and pompous as the obamessiah. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 This is a pretty prescient observation by the author, IMO. I've been saying for a while that our political class has become (since the 50's or so) a group that thinks they have a right to rule like the divine right of kings. That they could make it a world of daisies and butterflies and rainbows for everyone if these meddlesome people didn't complain about their taxes, and those people weren't so worried about their rights. And it's BOTH sides of the aisle, believe me. Newt Gingrich was every bit as imperious and pompous as the obamessiah. You have omitted a very large and much more influential group of "technocrats", people who have far more influence on our daily lives when it comes right down to it. The financial world runs on software, not talent. The people involved are directed almost entirely by machines that tell them what to do, what to think and what to expect. The software dictates sell, buy, hold and eliminates any need for talent, understanding or knowledge. This financial technocracy control is at least as pervasive and dangerous as political technocracy. We are all invited to fund it in exactly the same fashion as we are invited / compelled to fund the government. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 (edited) You have omitted a very large and much more influential group of "technocrats", people who have far more influence on our daily lives when it comes right down to it. The financial world runs on software, not talent. The people involved are directed almost entirely by machines that tell them what to do, what to think and what to expect. The software dictates sell, buy, hold and eliminates any need for talent, understanding or knowledge. This financial technocracy control is at least as pervasive and dangerous as political technocracy. We are all invited to fund it in exactly the same fashion as we are invited / compelled to fund the government. i think you are wrong about the financial world. they use computers to help make decisions. they program computers to make the trades. there is human input. the financial world is kinda like detroit. there used to be 50 guys on the assembly line. now there are 5 running the machines on the assembly line. Edited July 21, 2010 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted July 21, 2010 Author Share Posted July 21, 2010 This is a pretty prescient observation by the author, IMO. I've been saying for a while that our political class has become (since the 50's or so) a group that thinks they have a right to rule like the divine right of kings. That they could make it a world of daisies and butterflies and rainbows for everyone if these meddlesome people didn't complain about their taxes, and those people weren't so worried about their rights. And it's BOTH sides of the aisle, believe me. Newt Gingrich was every bit as imperious and pompous as the obamessiah. if you haven't already seen it, you should read this. it's a bit hyperbolic, but pretty close to the mark in most respects. a couple quotes that stood out to me: Nowadays, the members of our ruling class admit that they do not read the laws. They don't have to. Because modern laws are primarily grants of discretion, all anybody has to know about them is whom they empower. That is why legal words that say you are in the right avail you less in today's America than being on the right side of the persons who decide what they want those words to mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 (edited) You have omitted a very large and much more influential group of "technocrats", people who have far more influence on our daily lives when it comes right down to it. The financial world runs on software, not talent. The people involved are directed almost entirely by machines that tell them what to do, what to think and what to expect. The software dictates sell, buy, hold and eliminates any need for talent, understanding or knowledge. This financial technocracy control is at least as pervasive and dangerous as political technocracy. We are all invited to fund it in exactly the same fashion as we are invited / compelled to fund the government. I can see your point, but I'm having a tough time getting there. Those people can fack us pretty hard if need be, but without their fedgov pals protecting them they'd be no more able to fiddle as Rome burns than the moronic BP guy who went sailing. If they knew they'd be facing a mostly honest set of bureaucrats and politicians when pulling this crap, as opposed to the tame, for sale bunch they had to answer to, thing's would be different, I think. And I think removing Glass-Steagal was one of the most collassally stupid things our government has ever done. That, to me, is the biggest blame for the financial mess. Don't let these folks dip their pens in both inkwells. They can either be a stable, staid bank with low margins but lots of stability and safety, or be a Patek-Phillipe wearing master of the universe stock-trader boy, but not both. edit for spelling Edited July 21, 2010 by westvirginia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted July 21, 2010 Author Share Posted July 21, 2010 I have faith in the expertise of my dentist. I have faith in the expertise of my auto mechanic. I have faith in the expertise of the people who manufactured my computer. I have faith in the people who figured out how to bring grapes to my supermarket. I have faith in the expertise of the people who work at charities to which I contribute. When it comes to having faith in experts, I yield to no one. I have tons of faith in experts. I just lack faith in experts who require the power of the state standing behind their expertise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 i think you are wrong about the financial world. they use computers to help make decisions. they program computers to make the trades. there is human input. the financial world is kinda like detroit. there used to be 50 guys on the assembly line. now there are 5 running the machines on the assembly line. I completely disagree. I think it's populated entirely by unintelligent chimps who can see no further than the next five minutes. If software doesn't rule, explain the recent flash drop of nearly 1,000 points. Auto-trading based on trigger points is more and more dominant. The people program the machines, sit back and the machines pull the trigger. It is human nature to rely more and more on systems instead of our brains and bodies. Why do you think, according to their own words in another thread, half the Huddle can't write? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egret Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 This is a pretty prescient observation by the author, IMO. I've been saying for a while that our political class has become (since the 50's or so) a group that thinks they have a right to rule like the divine right of kings. That they could make it a world of daisies and butterflies and rainbows for everyone if these meddlesome people didn't complain about their taxes, and those people weren't so worried about their rights. And it's BOTH sides of the aisle, believe me. Newt Gingrich was every bit as imperious and pompous as the obamessiah. David Brooks is a very good columnist. It's usually hard to disagree with him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billay Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 I think this issue extends to more than just government and is an indictment of the scientific community in general. Not the whole scientific community, but the portion of it which holds to the idea that everything can be known, all variables can determined and all outcomes can be projected. Physicists used to believe that if they could know the position and momentum of every particle in space, then they could predict the entire future of the universe. We have since learned that the universe is far more unpredictable and far more difficult to understand. Similarly, many behaviorists believe that humans are no more than the sum of their parts, that if you know enough about a person then you can know exactly how they will behave in any circumstance. I believe this view too, will ultimately fall by the wayside. Nothing is as easy to pin down as it seems, and humans have an amazing knack for overestimating their abilities. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 I completely disagree. I think it's populated entirely by unintelligent chimps who can see no further than the next five minutes. If software doesn't rule, explain the recent flash drop of nearly 1,000 points. Auto-trading based on trigger points is more and more dominant. The people program the machines, sit back and the machines pull the trigger. It is human nature to rely more and more on systems instead of our brains and bodies. Why do you think, according to their own words in another thread, half the Huddle can't write? Very apt point . . . But I think dmarc works a job that you say is for "unintelligent chimps" so I can see why would disagree with you . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westvirginia Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 I completely disagree. I think it's populated entirely by unintelligent chimps who can see no further than the next five minutes. If software doesn't rule, explain the recent flash drop of nearly 1,000 points. Auto-trading based on trigger points is more and more dominant. The people program the machines, sit back and the machines pull the trigger. It is human nature to rely more and more on systems instead of our brains and bodies. Why do you think, according to their own words in another thread, half the Huddle can't write? You are an intelligent man but you let blind hate cloud your judgment. A rational person would have run this through Snopes before rushing it out on to this forum. It's not like there was a race to get there firstrealize that if they were ENTIRELY UNINTELLIGENT CHIMPS then no one would ever recognize anything approaching real gains in the stock market. That truly, a bum of a park bench could sit in the same chair at the same terminal and become a millionaire. Man, where have I read about someone letting their hatred for the individual or the tasks they performed get in the way of rationally thinking of them? Oh well, perhaps we should just shoot 10% of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 Man, where have I read about someone letting their hatred for the individual or the tasks they performed get in the way of rationally thinking of them? Oh well, perhaps we should just shoot 10% of them. Whether I hate them or not (for the record, I do) is neither here nor there. If that is a factor and undermines my case, surely your hate for politicians must also be a factor and undermine yours too? Computers DO control more and more aspects of pretty much everything, running software that is written in order to behave in a certain way based on circumstances and input. As the software becomes more refined, there is less perceived need for human interaction so the previously extremely knowledgeable human becomes less knowledgeable because the machine "knows". Why do you think people on checkouts can't make change if the register doesn't tell them exactly how much to make? Subtracting any number from 100 is instantaneous for some of us yet that ability is dying fast. The point about the financial world is based on the reliance on machines but also a rapidly increasing track record of total failure. Your point about making money on the stock market would be very valid were it not for the fact that the stock market has shown a loss over the last 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted July 21, 2010 Author Share Posted July 21, 2010 The point about the financial world is based on the reliance on machines but also a rapidly increasing track record of total failure. Your point about making money on the stock market would be very valid were it not for the fact that the stock market has shown a loss over the last 10 years. how about over the last 50? the last 100? to arbitrarily pick out a peak (10 years ago) and compare it against the present trough is disingenuous. I think you can probably make your point without that sort of lame hocus pocus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 how about over the last 50? the last 100? to arbitrarily pick out a peak (10 years ago) and compare it against the present trough is disingenuous. I think you can probably make your point without that sort of lame hocus pocus. I can indeed but it is still a good point. Also, is 50 years a valid period? Perhaps, given that a working and retirement life might be ten years longer than that. But 100 years? Who cares? No working investor is going to give two hoots about a century. Also, I'd like to point out that hugh peaks are as much a problem as hugh troughs. I definitely include the ridiculous Internet nonsense of 1997-2000 (or thereabouts) when I point fingers at Wall Street and claim it is populated by morans. Regardless of the fact that the bubble enriched thousands, it was crass stupidity that drove the markets to those levels as anyone with a scintilla of rationality could see at the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 21, 2010 Share Posted July 21, 2010 Man, where have I read about someone letting their hatred for the individual or the tasks they performed get in the way of rationally thinking of them? Oh well, perhaps we should just shoot 10% of them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 (edited) I completely disagree. I think it's populated entirely by unintelligent chimps who can see no further than the next five minutes. If software doesn't rule, explain the recent flash drop of nearly 1,000 points. Auto-trading based on trigger points is more and more dominant. The people program the machines, sit back and the machines pull the trigger. It is human nature to rely more and more on systems instead of our brains and bodies. Why do you think, according to their own words in another thread, half the Huddle can't write? the flash crash happened because there is no liquidity in this market. no one is trading. its all the hifreq firms nowadays. and yes the auto trading is there, but it is watched and controlled by humans. humans input the parameters. humans are involved. the computers are simply a tool. Edited July 22, 2010 by dmarc117 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 Very apt point . . . But I think dmarc works a job that you say is for "unintelligent chimps" so I can see why would disagree with you . . . and try to get a job in a wall street trading firm nowadays. i couldnt, you couldnt. all they are looking for is quant guys. its gone from dum chimps like me to very, very smart algo and quant guys running the show. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 and try to get a job in a wall street trading firm nowadays. i couldnt, you couldnt. all they are looking for is quant guys. its gone from dum chimps like me to very, very smart algo and quant guys running the show. But isnt that the point? You have mathematicians running the show by writing the programs instead of stopping and thinking first? It is the very defenition of a herd of cattle. The automated systems (which are pretty similar from firm to firm) have specified protocol and a hierarcy or "buy and sell" orders based upon certain market values. people dont think about the "why" anymore, because the system does it for them in the blink of an eye. Skynet is almost aware . . . . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted July 22, 2010 Author Share Posted July 22, 2010 But isnt that the point? You have mathematicians running the show by writing the programs instead of stopping and thinking first? It is the very defenition of a herd of cattle. The automated systems (which are pretty similar from firm to firm) have specified protocol and a hierarcy or "buy and sell" orders based upon certain market values. people dont think about the "why" anymore, because the system does it for them in the blink of an eye. out of your , as usual Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bpwallace49 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 out of your , as usual Insightful comment from you, as usual. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 But isnt that the point? You have mathematicians running the show by writing the programs instead of stopping and thinking first? It is the very defenition of a herd of cattle. The automated systems (which are pretty similar from firm to firm) have specified protocol and a hierarcy or "buy and sell" orders based upon certain market values. people dont think about the "why" anymore, because the system does it for them in the blink of an eye. Skynet is almost aware . . . . out of your , as usual Why? His point - directly supported by dmarc - is that it's all math and computers, which it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 But isnt that the point? You have mathematicians running the show by writing the programs instead of stopping and thinking first? It is the very defenition of a herd of cattle. The automated systems (which are pretty similar from firm to firm) have specified protocol and a hierarcy or "buy and sell" orders based upon certain market values. people dont think about the "why" anymore, because the system does it for them in the blink of an eye. Skynet is almost aware . . . . stopping and thinking about what? and you said it, mathematicians running the show, not computers.......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmarc117 Posted July 22, 2010 Share Posted July 22, 2010 Why? His point - directly supported by dmarc - is that it's all math and computers, which it is. people have to program the computers. put in the parameters and levels of where to trade. the computers make decisions based on the inputs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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