#14 pick in 16 team league

[JetFanMike]

OK, so we draft Wednesday night -- 16 team league, standard performance except QB TD's only count 3 points. We start QB-RB-flex-WR-WR-TE-PK-DEF. Normally, I'm a big RB drafter -- I always use one at flex. But this year I don't think I can do that.

 

I figure by the time I draft these guys are definitely gone --

 

RB's: CJohnson, Peterson, Rice, Jones-Drew, Gore, Turner, and probably SJax and Deangelo Williams (6-8 guys)

QB's: Brees, Rodgers, and maybe Manning (2-3 guys)

WR's: Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and maybe Wayne or LFitz or Austin? (2-5 guys)

 

Then I get #14, the two guys at the end get 2 picks each, and I get #19. I am thinking of going for a WR (probably Wayne or Roddy White) and then an RB (I think I will be torn between Ryan Mathews and Ryan Grant). Any thoughts on whether I should do RB then WR, or WR then RB? I figure I HAVE to get one stud WR, since we start two or three WR's and nobody really strong will be left by my next turns (overall picks #46 and #51 -- ugh!). If I pick 2 RB's, I'm strong at flex but in trouble at WR. I COULD go WR-WR (one of the guys I named or Megatron) and hope a decent RB slips to me late, but I figure my best bet is one of each to maximize my flexibility.

 

A week ago I was hoping Arian Foster might slide to me -- I doubt it, but given the premium on receivers in my league I could get lucky. I figure somebody like Jerome Harrison or Jahvid Best might last too. I definitely want 2 guys who play every down -- worst case I might go after someone like Michael Bush. And I think I can get a halfway decent #2 WR, but nobody I would want as my main guy.

 

I guess one of each maximizes my flexibility. But I bet if I go WR-WR (especially if the other "end guys" draft receivers) I could start a mad rush on WR's and maybe increase the chances a decent RB gets to me?

 

So what do people think with #14 pick -- go WR-WR? or RB-RB? or one of each?

[Big Country]

Most likely, I'd end up with one of each, but that is extremely dependent on just who does go ahead of me and to the 15 and 16th pick guys. ANd, the order with which I'd go RB or WR is also very dependent on just who was gone and where I see a deeper tier that would most likely last to my 2nd pick

[SLGRAF]

With 13 players being selected ahead of you, it would be a mistake to set in stone a draft strategy. I would decide what your team makeup should be after 6-8 rounds, and try to snag the best value at each pick.

[JetFanMike]

Thanks - I agree with both of you regarding the tiers and the 6-8 rounds. The tricky part is trying to project what will happen when 26 guys get picked between my 2nd and 3rd rounds or my 4th and 5th, for example. That's really my dilemma -- I think the dropoff in receivers is very dramatic after the top 10 or so. I also think that picking one of each maximizes my future options (for example, if I took Ryan Mathews and Ryan Grant I'd be very happy with my RB's, but then if the best RB and WR available when I get to round 4 are Arian Foster and Bernard Berrian, for example, I'd have to take Berrian.) I also think our roster makeup increases the chances of an RB sliding to me late. I'm just afraid to not take at least one RB.

 

I think I'm gonna think this to death and then by some fluke Frank Gore or Randy Moss will somehow slide to me

[Junkyard]

If Roddy White is hanging out at #14, I would grab him and then a RB on the way back. Maybe get lucky and have Ryan Matthews still around, or maybe Mendenall or McCoy or Benson at #19. Take a WR in round 3 (should still be some decent talent left), and grab somebody like Addai, Forte, or Bradshaw (if you're lucky) in round 4 as your RB 2. By then the TE rush will be on, but you can still come away with someone decent a round or two later and be filling out the critical RB/WR slots now.

 

Post your lineup after the draft... curious to see how you made out.

[JetFanMike]

Thanks -- yeah, I like Roddy a lot (he's my #3 WR), and I think Ryan Matthews is the guy I'm targeting for RB (with Ryan Grant right behind him). But who I take at 14 requires a lot of guessing -- I think Roddy has a better chance of lasting until #19, especially if there are a lot of WR's out there. I also think you've nailed my next two picks, but I don't think Bradshaw will get to me since there are a bunch of Giant fans in my league. I should still be able to get a very solid backup RB/flex guy though. And I think that with this many teams and everybody ranking a little bit different I will typically have one or two guys jumping out at me as draftable options in each round.

 

I also looked back at the past couple of years, and typically almost everybody drafts an RB in round 1, and almost nobody does so in rounds 2-3 (except for me!), so I feel a lot better about getting decent RB's and maybe being able to swing some creative trades later.

 

I'll post tonight or tomorrow after I see what I've got.

[BearBroncos]

In a performance league, I'd have not idea why anyone would draft 2 WR first. You could either do 2 RB and get 2 good solid backs and then decent low end WR1 and probably a WR2 or get yourself a higher end RB 1, a stud WR 1 and then a decent, higher end RB 2 and WR 2.

[JetFanMike]

Normally I'd agree with you, but we start one RB and two WR's (along with a flex). The reason I was considering 2 WR's would be if, for example, Randy Moss gets to me at #14. I could take him and then someone like Roddy White or Calvin Johnson, then probably get guys like Jerome Harrison or Matt Forte or ??? Even if I only got ONE good RB I could take a 3rd WR to use at flex. If I took 2 RB's early (say 2 of Mathews/Grant/Mendenhall/Benson) that would be a great start, but then my WR's would end up being guys like Donald Driver and Derrick Mason -- this year the relative dropoffs in WR seem steeper than in RB for some reason. And I HAVE to start the WR's.

 

I guess I DO think one of each (RB/WR) is probably the way to go.

[JetFanMike]

Draft finished a little while ago, and went largely as expected. As always, a few strange picks distorted things a little. By the time I picked at #14, the 8 RB's I listed above were gone, along with the top thee QB's listed and 2 WR's. However, the 2 WR's were Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald. So I didn't think I could pass up Randy Moss and grabbed him. Then at the turnaround the other guys took 4 players including Reggie Wayne and Ryan Grant, and I took Ryan Mathews on the way back. For what it's worth, Roddy White (who I was considering at my pick) lasted until #28, and Cedric Benson lasted all the way until #38!! However, the guy who lucked into him had a terrible draft overall, so at least he ended up in a good place :-)

 

My next picks were all the way at #46 and #51, and I was happy to end up with Jahvid Best and Steve Smith (Car). We start one RB, two WR's, and a flex, and I wanted an RB to use at flex. By the time I picked, 8 QB's were already gone (the big 3, plus Brady-Romo-Schaub-Rivers-Flacco), I considered Cutler, Ryan, or Kolb but held off. And the only TE gone was Gates -- I considered taking Finley, but figured I'd rather get the "main" positions.

 

Overall, I ended up with a pretty decent team and OK depth for such a big league. TE's went early and often, I just stayed away and ended up with Michael Hoomanawanui from the Rams, who nobody except Huddlers ever heard of. And I'm not thrilled with my backup QB, but overall I'm decent. Roster is in my signature. Thanks to those of you who gave input.