PROJECTED END OF SEASON RECORDS (through Week 12)

[muck]

AFC seedings

12-4 NE

11-5 PIT

10-6 KC

9-7 IND

12-4 NYJ

11-5 BAL

 

NFC seedings

13-3 ATL

11-5 CHI

10-6 PHI

7-9 SEA

11-5 NO

10-6 GB

 

Top 10 Draft Picks:

2-14 CAR

4-12 CIN

4-12 BUF

4-12 DET

5-11 DEN

5-11 DAL

5-11 ARI

6-10 SF

6-10 MIN

7-9 CLE

 

***********************************

 

DIVISIONAL STANDINGS

AFC East

12-4 NE

12-4 NYJ

9-7 MIA

4-12 BUF

 

AFC North

11-5 PIT

11-5 BAL

7-9 CLE

4-12 CIN

 

AFC South

9-7 IND

8-8 JAC

7-9 TEN

7-9 HOU

 

AFC West

10-6 KC

9-7 SD

7-9 OAK

5-11 DEN

 

NFC East

10-6 PHI

10-6 NYG

7-9 WAS

5-11 DAL

 

NFC North

11-5 CHI

10-6 GB

6-10 MIN

4-12 DET

 

NFC South

13-3 ATL

11-5 NO

9-7 TB

2-14 CAR

 

NFC West

7-9 SEA

7-9 STL

6-10 SF

5-11 ARI

 

NOTE: The wins/losses are off by 2 games' outcome (255 wins v. 257 losses) across the entire NFL. Because I project a W/L percentage, occasionally, due to rounding, the standings will occasionally have teams (in total) will have a couple more wins than loss, or vice versa.

 

***********************************

 

Teams with the easiest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

0.869 ARI

0.906 ATL

0.926 SD

0.951 PHI

0.959 SEA

 

Teams with the hardest schedule here on out -- future opponents average Power Rank:

1.103 CIN

1.069 NO

1.058 NYJ

1.056 NE

1.053 CHI

 

***********************************

 

Power Ranks:

1.180 ATL

1.168 PIT

1.168 NYJ

1.154 NE

1.142 BAL

1.141 GB

1.123 PHI

1.120 NO

1.109 SD

1.091 CHI

1.072 NYG

1.069 KC

1.052 IND

1.028 MIA

1.023 TB

1.005 TEN

0.976 HOU

0.973 CLE

0.971 OAK

0.944 JAC

0.933 STL

0.931 WAS

0.928 MIN

0.916 SF

0.904 SEA

0.888 DAL

0.876 DET

0.866 DEN

0.854 CIN

0.851 BUF

0.798 ARI

0.742 CAR

 

***********************************

 

After starting four weeks ago, the methodology below has been 46-25 outright winners:

 

Week 13 Projections (ranked in decending order of projected total points scored):

 

JAC at TEN ... TEN by 5.9 ... 47.6 pts

DAL at IND ... IND by 6.4 ... 46.2 pts

WAS at NYG ... NYG by 5.7 ... 45.9 pts

OAK at SD ... SD by 6.5 ... 45.7 pts

DEN at KC ... KC by 7.1 ... 44.8 pts

CHI at DET ... CHI by 0.5 ... 44.7 pts

HOU at PHI ... PHI by 6.0 ... 44.7 pts

PIT at BAL ... BAL by 1.9 ... 44.4 pts

GB at SF ... GB by 4.1 ... 44.3 pts

STL at ARI ... STL by 0.8 ... 44.1 pts

NYHJ at NE ... NE by 2.6 ... 44.1 pts

BUF at MIN ... MIN by 3.8 ... 43.8 pts

CLE at MIA ... MIA by 3.6 ... 43.7 pts

CAR at SEA ... SEA by 6.9 ... 43.0 pts

NO at CIN ... NO by 1.6 ... 42.1 pts

ATL at TB ... ATL by 1.1 ... 41.8 pts

 

...assumes a 3.0 point "home field advantage" vs. the score at a neutral site...

 

ETA: Over/Under

Edited December 3, 2010 by muck

[Brentastic]

[McBoog]

From a Charger perspective.

 

I think they have the AFC West wrong and even the numbers above show the Chargers have an easier schedule.

 

If the Bolts win out, they win the division. If they beat Oak, KC at home and Denver in Denver and end up with a tie record with KC, they win the division with SD 4-2 in the division and KC 3-3 (assuming KC wins all but the Charger game... They are playing very well).

 

KC has only one road game left after the Chargers, in STL, and is not a gimme game.

 

I think the AFC West will be determined by the SD-KC game in SD next week (assuming the Chargers beat the Raiders).

 

If KC loses another game and the one to the Chargers, and the Chargers beat OAK and KC, then the Bolts could still choke a game in the last three and still win the tie breakers.

 

The Chargers win the division at 11-5 period and in almost all scenarios if both teams end up 10-6.

 

Though a game ahead at the moment, I think KC has more pressure on them than the Chargers. Just MHO.

Edited December 2, 2010 by McBoog

[The Irish Doggy]

Wow. Cincy sinking like a stone. Top 5 draft pick is something to look forward to I guess.

[Brentastic]

Since this methodology is not perfect (nothing is). I'm going to show the list below with the games I believe will have a different outcome than projected. What I'm going to do is paste the original list below with the changed games bolded. There's no reason to do this other than trying to predict this week's outcomes with 100% accuracy. I'd enjoy other's tweaks as well. Per my calcs, based on the past results and based on 16 games in a week, muck's predictions average 10.4 wins and 5.6 losses each week. Again, based on 16 games in a week. Here's what I think will happen with bolded games being the changed games from muck's predictions:

 

JAC at TEN ... JAC

DAL at IND ... IND

WAS at NYG ... WAS

OAK at SDC ... SDC

DEN at KCC ... KCC

CHI at DET ... CHI

HOU at PHI ... PHI

PIT at BAL ... PIT

GBP at SF ... GBP

STL at ARI ... STL

NYJ at NEP ... NEP

BUF at MIN ... MIN

CLE at MIA ... MIA

CAR at SEA ... SEA

NOS at CIN ... NOS

ATL at TB ... TBB

[Hugh 0ne]

I have fantasy guys on most of this list:

 

Top 10 Draft Picks:

2-14 CAR

4-12 CIN

4-12 BUF

4-12 DET

5-11 DEN

5-11 DAL

5-11 ARI

6-10 SF

6-10 MIN

7-9 CLE

 

[muck]

I just caught a typo in a formula ... a minor formula, but one that will impact projected W/L, Power Rank, etc.

 

I will be editing the original post to reflect the changes...

[STL Fan]

Cool stuff, Muck. How does the formula handle tie-breaker scenarios, or does it? It has the Rams and Seahawks both 7-9 and assuming that the Seahawks beat the Rams in Seattle in January, that would put their head-to-head in a tie. My head explodes just thinking about crunching all those numbers.

[muck]

I project a W/L % (i.e., partial wins and partial losses) and rank accordingly; I do not consider the NFL's tiebreakers when ranking teams witin the divisions or for te playoffs -- highest W/L % gets the nod.

[muck]

I just caught a typo in a formula ... a minor formula, but one that will impact projected W/L, Power Rank, etc.

 

I will be editing the original post to reflect the changes...

 

The only changes were the expected MoV for the HOU/PHI game moved from 6.1 to 6.0 (actual 10.0) ... and ... the MOV for the WAS/NYG game moved to 5.7 from 5.8. No changes to the expected winning teams.

[kevinkris]

So far 10-5, not bad! Suprised by how high all the total point projections are tho.

[McBoog]

From a Charger perspective.

 

I think they have the AFC West wrong and even the numbers above show the Chargers have an easier schedule.

 

If the Bolts win out, they win the division. If they beat Oak, KC at home and Denver in Denver and end up with a tie record with KC, they win the division with SD 4-2 in the division and KC 3-3 (assuming KC wins all but the Charger game... They are playing very well).

 

KC has only one road game left after the Chargers, in STL, and is not a gimme game.

 

I think the AFC West will be determined by the SD-KC game in SD next week (assuming the Chargers beat the Raiders).

 

If KC loses another game and the one to the Chargers, and the Chargers beat OAK and KC, then the Bolts could still choke a game in the last three and still win the tie breakers.

 

The Chargers win the division at 11-5 period and in almost all scenarios if both teams end up 10-6.

 

Though a game ahead at the moment, I think KC has more pressure on them than the Chargers. Just MHO.

 

Never Mind!

[muck]

So far 10-5, not bad! Suprised by how high all the total point projections are tho.

 

...most Vegas spreads have the O/U in the 40s...

[muck]

Also, since tonights game will mark the end of the first 3/4 of the season, in next week's thread, I'll also give a rank each team by 'best offense' and 'best defense' in addition to the "Power Ranking" that I've been publishing.

[kevinkris]

...most Vegas spreads have the O/U in the 40s...

 

Yeah that is true, never really thought about it before lol.

 

Great work btw!

[muck]

So far 10-5, not bad! Suprised by how high all the total point projections are tho.

 

11-5

 

...new stuff posted tomorrow...