SEC=UGA Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 For the life of me, I can not figure out how this dude came up with his number here: Douglas Elmendorf, who is the director of the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office, ran the numbers on what a deal that either cuts spending or raises taxes in order to reduce the deficit by $2 trillion would mean to the economy. Elmendorf estimates that the deal would likely slow the economy by as much as 0.6% in each of the next three years. Again, there is no science to translating GDP growth into jobs. But 0.1% of GDP growth usually translates into the economy adding around 5,000 jobs, and visa versa. So that means a debt ceiling deal of the size Elmendorf is talking about could cost the economy as much as just over a million jobs during the next three years. Read more: http://curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/20.../#ixzz1SeJIyPZc If the economy slows by .6% each year over the next three years, and each .1% is = 5,000 jobs... Wouldn't that be 30,000 jobs lost per year? Then the total for the 3 years would be 90,000, right? Where does he come up with the 1 million jobs lost assumption when using these numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wiegie Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 For the life of me, I can not figure out how this dude came up with his number here: If the economy slows by .6% each year over the next three years, and each .1% is = 5,000 jobs... Wouldn't that be 30,000 jobs lost per year? Then the total for the 3 years would be 90,000, right? Where does he come up with the 1 million jobs lost assumption when using these numbers? At first blush, I think he might have meant .1% GDP -> 50,000 jobs (but I don't care enough to look into it more) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 At first blush, I think he might have meant .1% GDP -> 50,000 jobs (but I don't care enough to look into it more) I could agree with that. I was trying making sure that my brain wasn't melting down. So, my math is sound? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clubfoothead Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 (edited) Through the Wormhole is much more interesting. It's a great show, IMHO. Edited July 20, 2011 by Clubfoothead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ursa Majoris Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 In response to the thread title: Yes, same as every other day with a Y in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 At first blush, I think he might have meant .1% GDP -> 50,000 jobs (but I don't care enough to look into it more) That would seem likely. I think the last time a number as low as 5,000 was used in describing anything pertaining to the US economy it was like 1850 or something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEC=UGA Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 In response to the thread title: Yes, same as every other day with a Y in it. Montag Dienstag Mitwoch Donnerstag Freitag Samstag Sonnstag Looks like I'm doing okay... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chester Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 Slow is no longer accepted. You are mentally challenged. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimC Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 I know now why I got an A in Economics. Because I was also just making the answers up as I went along as well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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