gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 I disagree completely. Maybe Calvin being a sell high candidate is a stretch, but Wes and Beanie arent. Wes Welker in 5 games has nearly matched his production all of last season. I get that he likely will finish the season as a top 5-8 wr, but considering Im in a ppr league and could trade him for nearly anyone, I think he is a perfect example of selling high. Selling someone high means trading a guy because you feel like his production at some point in the season will drop pretty significantly. Maybe its just me, but no way does Welker keep up his average of 9-145-1. I feel like it drops to about 6-85 with an occasional td. Isnt that exactly what selling high means? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) 6-85 w/ 1 TD in a PPR league translates to 20 pts/game FYI how many RBs are going to average 20 pts/game moving forward? Welker is a bonafide stud, and sure, he won't keep up this unrealistic pace but he's still in all likelihood going to put up WR1 numbers for the rest of the season. no, that's not selling high Beanie I completely agree with Edited October 10, 2011 by markgugs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) I disagree completely. Maybe Calvin being a sell high candidate is a stretch, but Wes and Beanie arent. Wes Welker in 5 games has nearly matched his production all of last season. I get that he likely will finish the season as a top 5-8 wr, but considering Im in a ppr league and could trade him for nearly anyone, I think he is a perfect example of selling high. Selling someone high means trading a guy because you feel like his production at some point in the season will drop pretty significantly. Maybe its just me, but no way does Welker keep up his average of 9-145-1. I feel like it drops to about 6-85 with an occasional td. Isnt that exactly what selling high means? Well, you can pretty much call this last week Brady and Welker's floor, going up against Revis and co, and Welker still put up 5/124.... And in a PPR league, 6 for 85 is still 14 points, and much closer if not below his floor most weeks, with the potential to have more big ones... So even if your estimate is correct, that's still 66 more receptions and 935 more yards, and when you add in the fact that with Brady you always have the potential for huge games mixed in there, and he's being utilized more as deep threat and making his own TDs in addition to redzone targets, and it doesn't get much safer to finish at the top than him. Edited October 10, 2011 by delusions of granduer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I disagree completely. Maybe Calvin being a sell high candidate is a stretch, but Wes and Beanie arent. Wes Welker in 5 games has nearly matched his production all of last season. I get that he likely will finish the season as a top 5-8 wr, but considering Im in a ppr league and could trade him for nearly anyone, I think he is a perfect example of selling high. Selling someone high means trading a guy because you feel like his production at some point in the season will drop pretty significantly. Maybe its just me, but no way does Welker keep up his average of 9-145-1. I feel like it drops to about 6-85 with an occasional td. Isnt that exactly what selling high means? Assuming you can trade him for "nearly anyone", then I would say do it. Because, yes, that would be "selling high". However, something like Welker for Ray Rice or whomever "anyone" is, may look more one-sided on paper (in your favor) than it will actually end up being. Because there's plenty of reason to think that Welker will continue to put up numbers on par with pretty much anyone out there. What about NE has you thinking that passing game is going to come back to earth? They're have a hell of a time stopping teams and Brady seems unstoppable. And Welker is his favorite guy. So, yes 9-145-1 is not sustainable but, considering it's PPR, a RB would have to do something along the lines of 180 total yards with 5 catches and a TD every week going forward to match that. What player that you could get is going to do that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 10, 2011 Author Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) In games that Aaron Hernandez has played, Welkers stats are: 8-160-2 (had a 99yd td) 7-81-0 5-124-0 (had a 73yd catch) I feel like Welkers 2nd game is more going to be the average from here on out than the other 2 games. And its 1/2pt per reception, so guys like Forte, Rice, Foster and LeSean have pretty much matched his production each week. Edited October 10, 2011 by gbpackersfan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 So, yes 9-145-1 is not sustainable but, considering it's PPR, a RB would have to do something along the lines of 180 total yards with 5 catches and a TD every week going forward to match that. What player that you could get is going to do that? Rice? I think a top back like Rice might be worth letting Welker go for (assuming the upgrade exceeds the downgrade at WR), or if I needed depth help in a bad way, but that's completely different from a sell-high discussion. It's like selling high on Google when it goes up just a little bit over it's normal stable price. Unless it clearly improves your portfolio to do so, then jumping ship on the investment is risky and largely pointless if it can continue to give you steady returns. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
delusions of grandeur Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 I just dont see Welker maintaining his current level, but apparently its just me that feels that way. Again, nobody sees Welker continuing his record-shattering numbers, but that doesn't mean he's not the best QB in the league's favorite target, a proven PPR machine, and as safe of a bet as anyone to be at the top of his position by year's end. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
detlef Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 In games that Aaron Hernandez has played, Welkers stats are: 8-160-2 (had a 99yd td) 7-81-0 5-124-0 (had a 73yd catch) I just dont see Welker maintaining his current level, but apparently its just me that feels that way. And its 1/2pt per reception, so guys like Forte, Rice, Foster and LeSean have pretty much matched his production each week. What did I say that your post refuted? I didn't say he's going to keep up his current level. And if you can actually get a true stud RB for him, I'd say go for it. I just can't believe you can. Oh, now it's .5 ppr, which does change the numbers I used in my post above. And, frankly, makes it seem less likely to me that you could actually land a stud RB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Back to the subject at hand, sell high guys... Here are guys that would be on my list: Owen Daniels (gut tells me teams will game plan him out more with Andre out, as I don't think he has difference-making talent any more than Joel Dreessen does) Matt Hasselbeck (now feels like the time to move him for more RB/WR depth to a QB needy team - or maybe after the bye this week.) Victor Cruz (his TD catch was fluky as hell - seriously, Eli and the Giants should not be rewarded for decisions like that one. Cruz' stat line is much lower without a 70 yard TD in it.) A.J. Green (as the weather turns colder and the rookie wall looms closer, I just don't think A.J. Green is a guy I want to rely on come December, but I think you can fetch someone for him right now that might be) Daniel Thomas (I know he might not be thought of as a sell high guy, but if he is healthy coming off of the bye, he might be perceived as a reliable RB2 option based on the 1.5 games he has played in which I think is too generous.) Pierre Garcon (I'm really not 100% sure he belongs on this list, but I just don't see the Painter to Garcon connection continuing at this clip.) Delone Carter (Since I brought up the Colts, my biggest problem with Carter is that this team never seems to field a lot of value at RB, and they are not going to be playing with a lead very often. People may value him more than they should with the news of Addai's injury.) Ryan Torain (It's always time to sell high when a new RB gets anointed the starter in Washington. And even without the Shanahan factor, Torain is about as snake bitten as they come with respect to injuries.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrTed46 Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Back to the subject at hand, sell high guys... Here are guys that would be on my list: Owen Daniels (gut tells me teams will game plan him out more with Andre out, as I don't think he has difference-making talent any more than Joel Dreessen does) Matt Hasselbeck (now feels like the time to move him for more RB/WR depth to a QB needy team - or maybe after the bye this week.) Victor Cruz (his TD catch was fluky as hell - seriously, Eli and the Giants should not be rewarded for decisions like that one. Cruz' stat line is much lower without a 70 yard TD in it.) A.J. Green (as the weather turns colder and the rookie wall looms closer, I just don't think A.J. Green is a guy I want to rely on come December, but I think you can fetch someone for him right now that might be) Daniel Thomas (I know he might not be thought of as a sell high guy, but if he is healthy coming off of the bye, he might be perceived as a reliable RB2 option based on the 1.5 games he has played in which I think is too generous.) Pierre Garcon (I'm really not 100% sure he belongs on this list, but I just don't see the Painter to Garcon connection continuing at this clip.) Delone Carter (Since I brought up the Colts, my biggest problem with Carter is that this team never seems to field a lot of value at RB, and they are not going to be playing with a lead very often. People may value him more than they should with the news of Addai's injury.) Ryan Torain (It's always time to sell high when a new RB gets anointed the starter in Washington. And even without the Shanahan factor, Torain is about as snake bitten as they come with respect to injuries.) I don't agree with AJ Green. He has talent and is going to be getting a ton of targets and on most teams he is a WR3. Having someone like that as a #3 is very valuable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 (edited) Beanie gets no respect. Guy is locked in as a 20+ touch guy, and gets the goal line work, and has virtually no competition in that backfield He's not flashy but he'll get you decent points every week (assuming he stays healthy). If you're selling, I'm buying. Edited October 10, 2011 by nelsosi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glabra Posted October 10, 2011 Share Posted October 10, 2011 Beanie gets no respect. Because he's missed a mind-boggling ~10% (4/39) of games he had a chance to play in during his career? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Hope you didn't "sell high" on Calvin....He looks REALLY bad tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I wouldn't drop Welker or Calvin. Even if they can't keep the pace they are on, they will still produce very well. I mean, who right now is better than either of those two? On the other hand, I think that Wells is a good sell high candidate. If you're lucky you may be able to get MJD or Michael Turner. Keep in mind though that there maybe a lot of guys who think Wells is just having a fluke great start Agree on all three counts here Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbpackersfan Posted October 11, 2011 Author Share Posted October 11, 2011 Hope you didn't "sell high" on Calvin....He looks REALLY bad tonight. Outside of his 75+ yd td he hasnt really done anything. I would still rather have a guy like Forte. But I could be crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Back to the subject at hand, sell high guys... Here are guys that would be on my list: Owen Daniels (gut tells me teams will game plan him out more with Andre out, as I don't think he has difference-making talent any more than Joel Dreessen does) Matt Hasselbeck (now feels like the time to move him for more RB/WR depth to a QB needy team - or maybe after the bye this week.) Victor Cruz (his TD catch was fluky as hell - seriously, Eli and the Giants should not be rewarded for decisions like that one. Cruz' stat line is much lower without a 70 yard TD in it.) A.J. Green (as the weather turns colder and the rookie wall looms closer, I just don't think A.J. Green is a guy I want to rely on come December, but I think you can fetch someone for him right now that might be) Daniel Thomas (I know he might not be thought of as a sell high guy, but if he is healthy coming off of the bye, he might be perceived as a reliable RB2 option based on the 1.5 games he has played in which I think is too generous.) Pierre Garcon (I'm really not 100% sure he belongs on this list, but I just don't see the Painter to Garcon connection continuing at this clip.) Delone Carter (Since I brought up the Colts, my biggest problem with Carter is that this team never seems to field a lot of value at RB, and they are not going to be playing with a lead very often. People may value him more than they should with the news of Addai's injury.) Ryan Torain (It's always time to sell high when a new RB gets anointed the starter in Washington. And even without the Shanahan factor, Torain is about as snake bitten as they come with respect to injuries.) Daniels/Cruz/Green/Thomas I would be buying from the sell high guy on all four of these, depending on "how high". I believe all four will continue to produce nicely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markgugs Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Outside of his 75+ yd td he hasnt really done anything. LOL, really? Outside of the hurricane hitting, the weather was fantastic this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CurlyDumps Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 LOL, really? Outside of the hurricane hitting, the weather was fantastic this weekend lol anyway, sell high on Eli Manning. Giants have a brutal 2nd half schedule. Already shaky O-line is dealing with injuries. The team looks bad overall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cy_Hawk Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I'm a big believer in regression, but more often than not the past few years, I hold guys unless there's just some glaring reason (in addition to normal regression) to make me think they can't keep producing, albeit at a reduced level. I traded away Shaun Alexander one year...gave my trading partner a championship. I traded Randy Moss in one league & Brady in another in '07 & gave both those owners championships. I know those are extreme examples, but I have learned to slow my roll & attempt to seriously analyze why a given player won't be able to keep a high level of production rather just saying "no way he can keep this up." That's just too simplistic, IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
historymike Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I might regret it, but I just sold high on Fred Jackson for Tom Brady. I have the luxury of another stud RB1 (Rice) so I figured the upgrade at QB over Romo is more than the downgrade to my revolving door RB2. I suspect that FJax cannot keep up this pace all season, given his 30-year-old legs, but admittedly this was a roll of the dice on my part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bostonsoxandy Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 LOL, really? Outside of the hurricane hitting, the weather was fantastic this weekend 5 catches for 130 yards and a TD..time to sell this ship-it's going down! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Beanie gets no respect. Guy is locked in as a 20+ touch guy, and gets the goal line work, and has virtually no competition in that backfield He's not flashy but he'll get you decent points every week (assuming he stays healthy). If you're selling, I'm buying. Beanie strikes me as a poor man's Michael Turner and that's not a good thing. Sell high candidate: Tim Tebow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Beanie strikes me as a poor man's Michael Turner and that's not a good thing.I don't think anyone's saying he's a top 10 RB. But I think his production so far this year is about what you can expect the rest of the way. Solid volume-based numbers every week, with a chance for multiple TDs on occasion. I'd take that as an RB2 all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nelsosi Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Outside of his 75+ yd td he hasnt really done anything. yeah, take away his 9 TDs and he's having a terrible year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Glabra Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 I don't think anyone's saying he's a top 10 RB. But I think his production so far this year is about what you can expect the rest of the way. Solid volume-based numbers every week, with a chance for multiple TDs on occasion. I'd take that as an RB2 all the time. But he: - co-leads the league in TDs with AP, even after having missed one game. - is 4th in yards per game - is 7th in YPC for backs with 75+ carries. Based on those numbers, he's clearly top-5 material, to-date. If you think we can the expect the same the rest of the way, he has a pretty strong chance to finish top 10 or higher. Where he clearly stinks is as a pass-catcher so far. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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