theHuddle's ranking of Brandon Lloyd

[Papajohn]

I know that if we started a thread everytime we were surprised by a ranking we would probably drown in threads like this, but Brandon Lloyd's ranking still surprised me so much, that I think this thread is justified.

 

I understand why Lloyd most likely isn't going be a top WR this year (or any year for that matter) with the amounts of weapons in New England and an average statline over the years, and I don't disagree with that assesment and I wouldn't reach for him on draft day. However, and hopefully without giving content away for free, I would choose him any day of the week over guys like Chris Givens and Jerome Simpson just to name a few.

 

Is there something I am completely missing? If nothing else he still has Tom Brady throwing him the ball and we all know what Brady can do, and has done with, lesser WRs.

[delfamdelfam]

yeah I agree, I would probably put him around 38 on that list. The thing he won't be getting a lot of catches cause gronk, welker, and hernandez. He also isn't going to be targeted in the redzone much.

 

So his only value really is in the deep ball, but those are so rare you can't really count on them. In standard leagues I guess he gets a slight bump, but his upside isn't really that good to warrant picking him over higher upside guys like Wright and Quick. In PPR his value is very minimal and is going to be so sporatic week to week that he is a very risky start.

[DMD]

His ranking is a product of his projection. Let's break it down:

 

2011:

 

Aaron Hernandez - 79-910-7

Rob Gronkowski - 90-1327-17

Wes Welker - 122-1573-9

Deion Branch - 51-702-5

 

I already have each player with less stats than last year so I have taken into account that Brady likely won't hit 5239 yards again.

 

I have Brandon Lloyd currently at 51-690-3 because I do not think Deion Branch is going to entirely disappear. In projections, I have to distribute out the yards and scores and since Lloyd is no better than #4 on the team, he did not get nearly as much as he would have on another team as the #1. Another thing to realize is that Lloyd has played for nine years on six different teams. He has only one season ever with more than 48 catches for 733 yards and that includes the times he was the #2 or #1 on a team. He had one good year in his entire nine year career. Sure, he is going to a premier passing team but he is a 31-year old player who has one good year and now will be no better than #4 receiver on his new team. I've already lowered 2011 projections for Gronk, Welker and Branch. I'd have to lower them even more to give more to Branch.

[MTSuper7]

Nobody predicted Welker would become a PPR stud when he signed with New England for the 2007 season. Who's to say that Lloyd won't step in and become a bigger piece of the puzzle? We assume Lloyd is the 4th option in the passing game. Why are we making that assumption? Based on last year? I don't have anything more than my gut to back this up, but Lloyd knows this offense and can be relied upon more than Ocho was and is more talented than Branch. Lloyd may only get 50 catches, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had one of the top YPC averages this year and ended up closer to 1,000 yards and flirts with 10 TDs. Say 56-978-8 or something like that. I don't think they brought him in without purpose, and I think he has more upside than many give him credit for. Isn't it possible that Gronk and Hernandez were both top 5 TEs because the Patriots had to mold their offense to what they had? And when defenses game plan against them, it seems reasonable to think Lloyd will be given his chances. He has been a target monster with McDaniels as his OC. Are we really that sure he'll be no better than a 4th option just because that's what Branch was?

Edited July 21, 2012 by MTSuper7

[DMD]

But Lloyd wasn't always big with McDaniels. He played for him in 2009 in Denver and only had 8-117 all year long. In STL, he played for 11 games with 51-683-0 and that was when he was clearly the #1 receiver. He was the #1 in Denver during 2010. Even his one good year of the nine has he played only had 2 of the final 11 games end up with more than 100 yards. He started out with 4 of his first 5 games with big yardage but then settled down considerably the rest of the year.

 

I see no reason to assume that Lloyd will be anything more than a #4 receiver. He is going into an established and successful offense and it is reasonable to assume lesser stats this year from their passing game anyway. He has been good only once in nine years and that was when he was the central focus of an offense and even that lasted mostly just the first five games that year for yardage. He is a good endzone target potentially - at least he was the one year - but he pales against either of the TE's there.

 

I'll agree I am more likely to bump up his projections than to lower them but it seems really optimistic to expect him to step into the NE offense and take over a significant workload from the other players there.

[Papajohn]

Thank for the answers DMD, I really appreciate you taking the time to elaborate on your projections.

[T_bone65]

Homer

[stethant]

Lloyd may only get 50 catches, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had one of the top YPC averages this year and ended up closer to 1,000 yards and flirts with 10 TDs. Say 56-978-8 or something like that. I don't think they brought him in without purpose, and I think he has more upside than many give him credit for.

 

This would require a tectonic shift in the Patriots offense to happen - there's just way too much talent to concentrate that many ff points in the new guy. This offense needs more balance out of the run game, not another talented receiver to throw to. Running more also helps their defense, a weakness last year that has quite a bit of potential to improve.

 

One of the Patriots' WRs/TEs is really likely to underperform. It could be that Brady develops outstanding chemistry with Lloyd, but as a betting man that's not the position I'd stake out.

[RJV]

My belief is sooner or later teams will scheme the shorter passing game and the seams. I think Branch has lost a step and thus there haven't been a lot of weapons on the outside. Lloyd is 2 years removed from a career season and is now joined with Josh McDaniels again who is going to have a point to prove to a lot of folks this year. Tom Brady is the QB and he has shown in the past a knack for finding talent on the outside alike when Randy Moss was a Patriot. I do not expect Lloyd to be anywhere close to that but it seems reasonable that Lloyd will some have some big games, some avg games, and probably a few duds too.

 

70/1,050/8 TD but I feel he could have a lot more if things go well in New England. Lloyd will have at least 4-5 100+ yard games and being drafted as the WR25-30 off the board, he offers pretty good value at the WR3 spot and can float as a WR2 some weeks.

Edited July 21, 2012 by RJV

[piratesownninjas]

One of the guys I trust the most with player projections has Lloyd as a top 10 WR. It's a matter of opinion. I can see it going either way.

[MTSuper7]

Realistically, the only thing different about my projections from yours, DMD, is that I think Lloyd is much more likely to get a few long TDs. I have him just under 300 yards more than you but with 5 more catches and TDs. TDs are hard to predict, but I suspect that they will take a few shots per game with Lloyd down field, and if he has proven anything the last few years it's that he can make some ridiculous catches. I don't all of a sudden expect him to be a focal point. Welker will be one of the main guys moving the chains along with Hernandez, and Gronk will be king of the red zone. What they have been missing since Moss is a legit downfield guy, and Lloyd knows the offense and will be in that role. The Patriots used Gronk and Hernandez down the seam a fair amount last year to go downfield because they didn't have a guy on the outside that they could rely upon to beat defenses down field. My suspicion is that Lloyd will be given his chances and that the Pats won't have to rely as much on the TE seam route to get down field. And to the comment about a tectonic shift needing to happen for Lloyd to become fantasy relevant, I wholeheartedly disagree. The Patriots are about as versatile a team offensively as there is in the NFL. Their offense shifted dramatically with the two talented TEs last year (and to a lesser degree, the year before). Welker has been the only constant of the last 5 years. Even Danny Woodhead has become relevant. I think it's foolish to look at this Lloyd signing and think of it as "he'll get Branch numbers and maybe a little more". Lloyd brings an element that's been lacking for the Patriots, kind of in a smaller scale way to how Randy Moss impacted the Patriots (please don't think I'm comparing the two - just note that the Patriots' offense changed dramatically in that instance and stands to have a similar type of change just on a lesser scale). I also think people are lukewarm to Lloyd because of how epic of a fail Ochocinco was.

 

Mark my words - it is a mistake to think that the Patriots' offense is established / status quo. When new pieces are introduced, they are the best in the business at maximizing their value (i.e. Woodhead, Gronk). It'll be interesting to see what happens with the Patriots' backfield with the two second year backs plus Woodhead (and whoever else, lol). I don't think Lloyd will be top 10 like PON's source, but a low-to-mid WR2 wouldn't surprise me (say, top 20-25).

[bostonsoxandy]

DMD, why are you projecting Brady to decrease in yardage this year? I could really see this being the year that Belichick with McDaniels pushing just lets Brady go for it. Last year their pass to run ratio was 58 to 42 which is very surprising to me. I thought it would be closer to 66-33.

 

I could see that margin going crazy next year. Maybe even 75-25. I mean, what I see is letting BJGE go, who led their team in carries with 42% or 181 attempts. Then they bring in Brandon Lloyd. Then they bring in Jabar Gaffney and Anthony Gonzalez. And to top all that off, they bring in their old OC that was around when he Brady threw for 50 TDs and a 117 QB rating.

 

In my opinion, this is a perfect storm for Brady's best season yet. Unarguably, he has the best weapons he has ever had. Gronkowski-Welker-Hernandez-Lloyd-Branch-Gaffney-Vereen. Even in 2007, Brady's top options were Welker, Moss, and then a huge dropoff to Faulk and Donte Stallworth.

 

I think Belichick/McDaniels will let Brady go and put up absolutely absurd numbers. Run defenses into the ground with their no-huddle offense that was so effective when used last year and just keep throwing. I highly doubt that a combo of Ridley, Vereen, Woodhead, and Addai is going to be terribly effective this season, so let em throw. Vereen and Woodhead are excellent pass-catching backs anyway and not much of legit runners. Addai is too old to lean on for more than 100 carries and Ridley, I'm just not seeing him breaking out this season.

 

I know this is probably the biggest homer post ever but, hey, I see a perfect storm brewing. The value that you can get on Lloyd, Hernandez, and Gaffney (I think he will outplay Branch into the #3 spot) in a FF draft right now is fantastic.

[DMD]

I admit it is possible that Brady could exceed his pass yards from last year, but then again he threw for what is the second highest ever in NFL history. Were it not for Brees, Brady would have the #1 season of all time. It is really, really hard to justify a projection that extends the second best season of all time, particularly in the next year. The Patriots have the biggest negative schedule swing for QBs of any NFL team. Their schedule includes BAL, SF, HOU and JAC. Last year they faced the AFC West which proved bountiful. I am not ready to downgrade their rushing at all, in fact I think it could be better since Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen will get more work and Vereen was injured almost all of last season. Green-Ellis is nothing special. Ridley and Vereen should both be more talented.

 

Brady passed for 3900 yards in 2010. He had only 4398 yards the previous year. Expecting him to pass for 5300+ yards this year is just hard to justify.He's a top QB anyway, but I'll probably never project anyone to have a #1 season in all of NFL history for their position because there is no way to justify it.

[bostonsoxandy]

I see the Patriots as season as possibly a huge advantage for Brady to go for 5000+ yards. I remember hearing it was the easiest schedule in the NFL. And Belichick isn't going to start taking it easy if he is up by 20 or 30 points, he is infamous for being aggressive at all times on offense. He does have a few tough games, but the majority is a cake-walk for Brady.

 

I agree with you that BJGE is nothing amazing, but he was appreciated in NE and by Belichick because he didn't make mistakes, pretty much ever. 0 fumbles is one well-known example of that. Ridley is going to have some more growing pains and I just don't see Belichick being tolerant enough to give him 150+ carries. I think he will get 120 carries, maybe 20-30 receptions so around 150 total touches.I doubt Vereen will have much of an impact in the running game, however he could play a Kevin Faulk type role, I like his pass-catching ability and get 100 touches.

 

I just think that all of this translates into the Patriots running less, maybe 50-75 less times this year, and throwing more, so 50-75 extra throws for Brady. It's nothing significant but it means an extra 500 yards at least.

 

I think Brady is a lock for 5000 yards and can flirt with 5700, 5800. I'm getting that number by taking his # of attempts last year (611), adding the 50-75 extra he should get from less of a running game, and an improved AVG from last year (last year was 8.57 YPA). Maybe 8.8 or 8.9. That puts him somewhere between 5500-6100.

 

Of course that is best case scenario and unlikely to happen. Brady will have games where he is held in check. The four you listed should be tough for huge numbers. But why I want him more than any other QB next year is that pretty much all of the TDs scored are going to involve Brady. And the Patriots score a ton of touchdowns. Ridley can't be trusted unless he never fumbles around the goal-line which is unlikely second season. Vereen and Woodhead are pass-catchers and I can't see Addai being terribly effective at the goal-line.

 

I could see 50 TDs for him, along with 5200 yards. Considering he had 42 TDs last year it is not far-fetched.14 TDs were scored on the ground last year and 11 were by BJGE. Maybe 5 stay on the rushing end. That still conservatively gives Brady 6 more, which puts him at 49. And this is all assuming they are not more effective than last year which is hard to imagine since Brady is coming off a terrific year, will now have the best weapons he has ever had, and should be allowed to throw until his arm falls off.

[Papajohn]

I see the Patriots as season as possibly a huge advantage for Brady to go for 5000+ yards. I remember hearing it was the easiest schedule in the NFL. And Belichick isn't going to start taking it easy if he is up by 20 or 30 points, he is infamous for being aggressive at all times on offense. He does have a few tough games, but the majority is a cake-walk for Brady.

 

I agree with you that BJGE is nothing amazing, but he was appreciated in NE and by Belichick because he didn't make mistakes, pretty much ever. 0 fumbles is one well-known example of that. Ridley is going to have some more growing pains and I just don't see Belichick being tolerant enough to give him 150+ carries. I think he will get 120 carries, maybe 20-30 receptions so around 150 total touches.I doubt Vereen will have much of an impact in the running game, however he could play a Kevin Faulk type role, I like his pass-catching ability and get 100 touches.

 

I just think that all of this translates into the Patriots running less, maybe 50-75 less times this year, and throwing more, so 50-75 extra throws for Brady. It's nothing significant but it means an extra 500 yards at least.

 

I think Brady is a lock for 5000 yards and can flirt with 5700, 5800. I'm getting that number by taking his # of attempts last year (611), adding the 50-75 extra he should get from less of a running game, and an improved AVG from last year (last year was 8.57 YPA). Maybe 8.8 or 8.9. That puts him somewhere between 5500-6100.

 

Of course that is best case scenario and unlikely to happen. Brady will have games where he is held in check. The four you listed should be tough for huge numbers. But why I want him more than any other QB next year is that pretty much all of the TDs scored are going to involve Brady. And the Patriots score a ton of touchdowns. Ridley can't be trusted unless he never fumbles around the goal-line which is unlikely second season. Vereen and Woodhead are pass-catchers and I can't see Addai being terribly effective at the goal-line.

 

I could see 50 TDs for him, along with 5200 yards. Considering he had 42 TDs last year it is not far-fetched.14 TDs were scored on the ground last year and 11 were by BJGE. Maybe 5 stay on the rushing end. That still conservatively gives Brady 6 more, which puts him at 49. And this is all assuming they are not more effective than last year which is hard to imagine since Brady is coming off a terrific year, will now have the best weapons he has ever had, and should be allowed to throw until his arm falls off.

 

 

Even as a Patriots homer, this is way way too homerish to me, and doesn't add anything to the discussion.

[bostonsoxandy]

Even as a Patriots homer, this is way way too homerish to me, and doesn't add anything to the discussion.

 

 

I am getting off-track of the main idea of the thread, don't want to hijack it. Basically I am arguing that Brady is going to improve or atleast stay at the same production level he was at last year. The idea that there will not be enough to go around is incorrect, since they added a new toy in Lloyd they will simply throw more, and everyone will get their numbers.

 

Lloyd, in my opinion, should be ranked around #15-20. Potential to post low-end WR1 numbers and expected to be a good WR2 for any fantasy team. I do not like DMD's line of 51/690/3. I see where he is coming from but respectfully disagree with the projection and also the notion that Lloyd will be the No. 4 WR. He is more talented than Branch, no question. Brady throws to who is open, he loves Branch but he will learn to love Lloyd much much more.

 

EDIT: As for a projection for Lloyd, I would expect 90 to 110 targets for him. Branch had 90 last season, and Lloyd should see just a tad more than that. Considering he caught 50.3% of balls thrown his way and averaging around 16 yards per catch, that gives him around 45 to 55 catches for 720 to 880 yards. And that is not even considering he is now having Brady throw at him. That means more accurate passes than Orton and maybe a slightly better average. But the average could be arguable, so let's just bump the average catch rate up from 50.3% to maybe 5% better, to 55.3%. That changes his projection to 50 to 61 catches for 800 to 976 yards. That is what I would project for him.

 

As far as touchdowns go, they are a crapshoot. Thinking that I earlier said Brady will throw 50, let's say Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski's combined percentage of touchdowns stays consistent for next year. They caught 33 of Brady's 39 touchdowns last year, a very impressive 84.6%.

 

That leaves 15.4% for Lloyd. That equates to 7.7 TD. So we can round up and call it 8. You may argue that Lloyd will not catch every single TD that isn't caught by Welker/Hernandez/Gronk which is absolutely true, but I expect those three not to catch 84.6% next season. I think teams will key in on those three, Gronk especially.

 

So that would be my projection. 50-61 catches, 800-976 yards, 8 TD

Edited July 22, 2012 by bostonsoxandy

[MTSuper7]

I think assuming that the Patriots will run less is dangerous. And the idea that Brady is a lock for 5,000 yards is hilaroiiu

Even as a Patriots homer, this is way way too homerish to me, and doesn't add anything to the discussion.

 

 

+1 - The idea that Brady is a lock for 5,000 yards is hilarious. Nobody is a lock for 5,000 yards. We've only seen a handful of people ever get there. I love the idea that people are so high on passing right now - a season like 2,011 was like no other for passing, and chances are extremely high that numbers come closer to the mean in 2012. But a lot of people will be drafting off of last year's trends...

[Scooby's Hubby]

 

 

As far as touchdowns go, they are a crapshoot. Thinking that I earlier said Brady will throw 50, let's say Welker, Hernandez, and Gronkowski's combined percentage of touchdowns stays consistent for next year. They caught 33 of Brady's 39 touchdowns last year, a very impressive 84.6%.

 

That leaves 15.4% for Lloyd. That equates to 7.7 TD. So we can round up and call it 8. You may argue that Lloyd will not catch every single TD that isn't caught by Welker/Hernandez/Gronk which is absolutely true, but I expect those three not to catch 84.6% next season. I think teams will key in on those three, Gronk especially.

 

So that would be my projection. 50-61 catches, 800-976 yards, 8 TD

 

 

You are not considering Branch or any RB catching a TD?

Edited July 23, 2012 by Scooby's Hubby

[bostonsoxandy]

Rotoworld on Lloyd in their "jumping off the page" column:

 

The Money Quote: "Some might say there have been shades of 2007's offensive fireworks on the practice fields. ... (Lloyd) looks like he's been playing with quarterback Tom Brady for a decade." -- ESPN Boston.

 

Lloyd shredded non-contact OTAs and minicamps, and his head-turning performances filled with highlight-reel receptions have translated to the live practice field. Brady confirmed that Lloyd has a stranglehold on New England's offense, seeing as he spent two and a half of the past three years in Josh McDaniels' system. Fantasy fanatics concerned with "mouths to feed" should fear not. McDaniels will run a more vertical-oriented attack than outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's, and Lloyd is the Patriots' new vertical weapon. He's also McDaniels' boy. McD will scheme to get Lloyd the rock.

 

Plus, pass attempts haven't been an issue in Foxboro for several years. This organization believes in throwing the football, and pass targets will be aplenty. Lloyd offers mini-Moss '07 upside at the reasonable ADP cost of a fifth-round fantasy pick.

 

 

I'm buying.

[delfamdelfam]

Rotoworld on Lloyd in their "jumping off the page" column:

 

The Money Quote: "Some might say there have been shades of 2007's offensive fireworks on the practice fields. ... (Lloyd) looks like he's been playing with quarterback Tom Brady for a decade." -- ESPN Boston.

 

Lloyd shredded non-contact OTAs and minicamps, and his head-turning performances filled with highlight-reel receptions have translated to the live practice field. Brady confirmed that Lloyd has a stranglehold on New England's offense, seeing as he spent two and a half of the past three years in Josh McDaniels' system. Fantasy fanatics concerned with "mouths to feed" should fear not. McDaniels will run a more vertical-oriented attack than outgoing OC Bill O'Brien's, and Lloyd is the Patriots' new vertical weapon. He's also McDaniels' boy. McD will scheme to get Lloyd the rock.

 

Plus, pass attempts haven't been an issue in Foxboro for several years. This organization believes in throwing the football, and pass targets will be aplenty. Lloyd offers mini-Moss '07 upside at the reasonable ADP cost of a fifth-round fantasy pick.

 

 

I'm buying.

 

for what price?

[White lightning]

At what price? Lloyd went at 6.04 in our "huddle mock draft #1" right before Meachum, Decker, Lance Moore, and Torrey Smith. I probably wouldn't draft him till the 7th and after Decker. I appreciate the Pat's insight regarding Lloyd's camp, but I don't see him as a top 15-20 WR.

[Scooby's Hubby]

Sounds more like a testament to Tom Brady and his potential of another record breaking season. 6,000 yards? 40+ TDs?

[delfamdelfam]

At what price? Lloyd went at 6.04 in our "huddle mock draft #1" right before Meachum, Decker, Lance Moore, and Torrey Smith. I probably wouldn't draft him till the 7th and after Decker. I appreciate the Pat's insight regarding Lloyd's camp, but I don't see him as a top 15-20 WR.

 

I'd probably take him before Moore or Smith, I'd take Decker before him, and him and Meachum are about even IMO. So yeah late sixth early seventh sounds about right.