Dynasty, what to do

[FastSteve]

This will take a minute to explain. 12 team DYNASTY PPR IDP. Temporarily expand roster for a 5 round mini draft - rookie & veterans. Position limits & will need to cut players because of IR. VERY important to note, QB scoring is BIG in this league. A 40 point game is weak. All TD are 6 points. Rushing/receiving scoring is typical point every 10 yards with PPR. With IDP S/T points to individual player. 

 

Normally content for P/O but couldn't catch a break & ended up with 3rd overall pick in snake style draft. With previous trade I have R2-3 & my R2-10. 

Position/start/positional limit

QB 1/4  LAC Herbert, NYG Jones, LV O'Connell, DET Hooker, TEN Levis  I'm thinking Levis is the cut

 

RB 2/6 KC Pacheco, PIT Harris, BAL Dobbins & Edwards, IND Morris, CIN C Brown, JAX D Johnson, TEN Haskins

Cuts here I'm thinkng Johnson & Haskins

 

WR 2/6 CHI Moore, MIA Waddle,  PIT Pickens, LAC Palmer & Johnston, DEN Sutton, 

 

TE 1/3 BAL Andrews & Likely, GB Musgrave, CIN Hudson - he's the cut here. Unsure about cutting Likely after how well he stepped up at a weak position

 

We have 1 flex RB/WR/TE. Play 1 K CHI Santos, allowed up to 3. We use LB, DB & DL. Start 3 at each position & allow max of 6 player per position. My players

LB BAL R Smith, CAR Luvu, CLE Owusu-Koramoah, ATL Landman, PIT Holcomb

DB ATL Bates III, MIN Metellus, SEA Witherspoon, IND Blackmon, LAR J Fuller

DL DET Hutchinson, CHI Sweat, NYJ Q Williams, MIN H Phillips, LV Koonce, CIN Murphy 

 

I'm really thinking given the hype I should trade to get that #1 pick & grab Caleb Williams. Instead of swapping out my #3 pick I would like to do so holding onto it & then either grabbing Harison (Sutton becomes expendable then) if there at 3 or grabbing one of the top 2 RB. Issue is to do that I will probably have to break my own rule for next year - I don't trade OUT OF R1 altogether. Team with 1st pick could use help at both RB & WR. 

 

Do I make a move for #1 pick? Do so while trying to hold onto #3 pick & leverage next year R1 for first pick this year? Team with #1 pick does have Love & Mayfield, so his needs are stronger at RB & WR - maybe goes Harison. Team with #2 pick has Stroud & Murray. So again need stronger at RB & WR where his two best TB Evans & LV D Adams will be going into year 11. 

 

Suggestions please

[Big Country]

It can't hurt to try trade up to the 1, but with your team MHJ is the easy pick.

You are in a 12 team, start 1 QB league and already have Herbert. Williams is likely nothing but possible depth for you.

MHJ addresses a bigger need for you with the potential to be the #1 dynasty WR as early as the end of his first season. Granted, he has to live up close to expectations, but that potential to do so is undeniable. Heck, at 3, I'm probably looking at Odunze or Nabers before I'm taking a QB in this format.

Based on trades I'm seeing for the #1 pick this year, I'm not really sure what you have to offer that the owner at #1 would take. The 2025 R1 is more of a sweetener in the deals I've seen, with most offers for the #1 being in the 3 R1s equivalent with at least one of those picks being top 5, and many of those are getting turned down.

You'd likely have to offer DJM and the 2025 R1 at a minimum if you don't want to include the #3 pick, and I don't know if that's enough to really move the needle for many owners and it's considered a very light offer for the 1 overall in most of the trade calcs - for whatever value they are worth - where you may not even get a counter offer back. You likely would need to add another piece valued in the late 1st/early 2nd range.

There is no RB in this draft right now that I'd consider using a top 5 pick on in a 1 QB PPR league - now, landing spot could change that opinion, but in a rookie draft, you need to draft for value, not need.

[FastSteve]

6 hours ago, Big Country said:

It can't hurt to try trade up to the 1, but with your team MHJ is the easy pick.

You are in a 12 team, start 1 QB league and already have Herbert. Williams is likely nothing but possible depth for you.

MHJ addresses a bigger need for you with the potential to be the #1 dynasty WR as early as the end of his first season. Granted, he has to live up close to expectations, but that potential to do so is undeniable. Heck, at 3, I'm probably looking at Odunze or Nabers before I'm taking a QB in this format.

Based on trades I'm seeing for the #1 pick this year, I'm not really sure what you have to offer that the owner at #1 would take. The 2025 R1 is more of a sweetener in the deals I've seen, with most offers for the #1 being in the 3 R1s equivalent with at least one of those picks being top 5, and many of those are getting turned down.

You'd likely have to offer DJM and the 2025 R1 at a minimum if you don't want to include the #3 pick, and I don't know if that's enough to really move the needle for many owners and it's considered a very light offer for the 1 overall in most of the trade calcs - for whatever value they are worth - where you may not even get a counter offer back. You likely would need to add another piece valued in the late 1st/early 2nd range.

There is no RB in this draft right now that I'd consider using a top 5 pick on in a 1 QB PPR league - now, landing spot could change that opinion, but in a rookie draft, you need to draft for value, not need.

My interest in CW comes from not feeling great about who I have behind Herbert. Maybe he might fall to me. I do like MHJ. But here is the issue. Looking at team with #1 pick if he views the RB as you do he may take MHJ. Though keep mind his next pick won't be till 2-12 (24th overall). His players at relevent positions are

QB GB Love, TB Mayfield, MIN Dobbs

RB NYJ Hall, MIA Achane, LAC Ekeler & Kelley, MIN Chandler

WR GB Douds, IND Downs, WAS Samuel, MIA Berrios, LAR Atwell, KC S Moore

TE FA(ATL) J Smith, TB Otton

He needs help at RB, WR & TE. If he views things similar to you, good chance he takes MHJ. 

 

Team with #2 pick is the wildcard. Seen him make unexpected picks before. He's blown my plans up in the past a few times making picks I didn't think he would make at his spot. 

QB HOU Stroud, ARI Murray, NE Jones, 

RB MIA Mosert, MIN Mattison, KC CEH, TB Edmonds

WR TB Evans & Gage, LV Adams, NE Bourne, CHI Mooney, NYJ Lazard

TE DET LaPorta, CHI Kmet & Tonyan

He does desperately need help at RB. Mosert is going into season 10 & Mattison is about to be released. CEH & Edmonds are nothing more than bench filler. However his top 2 WR are both going into year 11 in an dynasty league. 

 

Honestly the more I look at this the more I think CW MIGHT fall to me at #3. MHJ could very well go #1 given the obvious needs at WR for team with first pick. Given #2 needs they could reach for an RB. I do like your points & will take MHJ at #3 if there but am having doubts looking at team needs & unorthodox drafting by team at #2 - he desperately needs an RB but I wouldn't at all be surprised if he takes MHJ at #2 if #1 passes on him. 

 

If MHJ & a top RB come off the board, would you go with Williams then at #3? Or someone else? As I said right now I also have R2-3 & R2-10 for my first 3 picks inside top 24 picks. Not saying in those early picks but an LB probably would be a good idea for me also given my top two guys are going into year 7.

[Big Country]

In a rookie draft you draft for value, not for need. Obviously a lot can change between the combine and where players actually get drafted, but in a 1 QB, PPR league, heading into the combine I would have MHJ, Nabers and Odunze and probably Bowers ahead of all of the QBs in this draft. The RBs are very draft spot dependent and potentially the best one may not even be ready to play until midseason, and even then, as we already know, it usually isn't until the 2nd year after an ACL tear that players truly return to form.

While RB is the pretty glaring need for you, you also need some WR strength behind DJM and Waddle. In this draft WR is where the value appears to be, not RB, so barring making other deals, I'd be more inclined to look at one of those WRs with the #3 pick and then address RB with the 2nd round pick. There is also something like 6 potential early QBs in this draft, some who have as much upside as Williams. You can grab one of them with one of the seconds if you are dead set on grabbing a QB in the draft. It's better than using the #3 pick on a guy you hope you never have to start instead of drafting a guy that could potentially be a 10 year starter for you at WR.

If this was a SF or 2QB league or non-PPR, then the strategy is a bit different, but in your league structure, taking a QB at 3 is a negative EV play.

Guy at 1 would be a fool to not take MHJ - he has a young upside QB in Love, 2 top 10 RBs in Hall and Achane, and Ekeler may have another year of providing flex/bye help. Chandler's value will largely depend on what Minnesota does in the draft or via FA, but with Mattison getting cut and Chandler looking fairly decent when he played at the end of last season, it's possible they give him the shot at getting the primary RB role this year. His WR and TE are atrocious. He should take MHJ unless he can get a haul for the pick.

Guy at 2 has holes everywhere except QB and TE. He should trade Kmet to the guy at #1 for Chandler, then draft his preference of Nabers or Odunze at 2. Temporary plug at RB by dealing backup TE, and start addressing the desperate WR need.

Leaves you at 3. I'd still not be a fan of QB here for you. I'd be inclined to take whichever of Nabers or Odunze is left as good chance they immediately step into the flex conversation for you with Pickens, and even though Andrews is getting older, he should still be a top TE for a few more years and you already have Musgrave, so Bowers isn't really in the convo here. Maybe if it was TE premium you could argue he's the pick and a weekly flex option. Until we know more, none of the RBs makes sense. Maybe if one lands in a great spot, but even then not sure that's more valuable than the WR options, especially if they are in a good spot as well.

[FastSteve]

Thanks BC for the feedback. I think I have a plan now. I will work out a trade for #1 so I can grab MHJ. But instead of holding onto that #3 pick I will deal it to the guy for #1. For a couple of reasons. One it will lighten up what I will need to give him as I can sell you're only moving down a couple of spots & hopefully it keeps from having to trade out of future R1 picks. 

 

Second you got me looking at the value aspect of it. After your explanations making me think it over future I'm having a difficult seeing the value of giving up a haul to get the #1 while holding onto the #3 just to take QB to sit on my bench or take an RB that value wise should be more towards the end of R1 or beginning of R2 - remember I have R2-3. If there isn't a run on RB I can take one there. If there is then maybe I take a QB & then throw an RB dart with that R2-10 pick & then grab an LB with that early R3 pick. 

 

Of course another option is I could TRY to deal for the #1 while holding onto #3. Give up my R2-10 & my 25 R1. Then turn around & target the guys with the R1 7, 8 or 10 pick. Guy at 9 does NOT do trades & offer up the #3 for their R1 & next years R1. Of course there might be bit more to work into these deals but what I laid out will be the "meat" of the deals. 

 

Thoughts?

[Big Country]

In regards to trading up for the #1 pick a few things are needed.

• Is the owner even willing to trade the pick regardless of what you offer?
• If he is, what is he even looking for? He's fine at QB and RB and desperately needs WR and TE. Is he the type of owner that likes picks, or does he prefer getting more established players.
• Are you suggesting that you would offer the 2.10 and 2025 R1 and expect that to not get laughed at? That's a very soft opening offer and one that would not even warrant a counter offer in any of my leagues. But you know your league and league mates better, perhaps that is something they would take or work with. As mentioned earlier, I've seen in a PPR league where the guy with #1 rejected an offer of the #3 and #4 picks. I'm in a league that is not very WR friendly and offered two top 10 picks this year plus a 2025 1st for the #1 and was rejected - to be honest though, given the structure of that particular league, having that rejected was probably a good thing for my team.

At the very least you should be sending out feelers to see if moving up, or acquiring the #1 without giving up the #3, are even options for you

[FastSteve]

1 hour ago, Big Country said:

In regards to trading up for the #1 pick a few things are needed.

• Is the owner even willing to trade the pick regardless of what you offer?
• If he is, what is he even looking for? He's fine at QB and RB and desperately needs WR and TE. Is he the type of owner that likes picks, or does he prefer getting more established players.
• Are you suggesting that you would offer the 2.10 and 2025 R1 and expect that to not get laughed at? That's a very soft opening offer and one that would not even warrant a counter offer in any of my leagues. But you know your league and league mates better, perhaps that is something they would take or work with. As mentioned earlier, I've seen in a PPR league where the guy with #1 rejected an offer of the #3 and #4 picks. I'm in a league that is not very WR friendly and offered two top 10 picks this year plus a 2025 1st for the #1 and was rejected - to be honest though, given the structure of that particular league, having that rejected was probably a good thing for my team.

At the very least you should be sending out feelers to see if moving up, or acquiring the #1 without giving up the #3, are even options for you

The owner is likely to be open to trading the pick. He has had the #1 pick in the past & has traded it to ME. 

 

I haven't reached out to him yet so not sure what he might want. 

 

I'm not saying that the offer of R1-3 & R2-10 is the TOTAL offer. That would be the "meat" of the offer. I'm not saying this to be argumentative with you at all but if you could please explain why someone would look at that base offer as laughable. This is a Dynasty league with only a 5 round mini draft, all worth is really mostly in those first two rounds & he would be moving down only 2 spots while gaining another R2 pick & another R1 next year - which by my team's crappy performance last season could lead one to believe that will be a pick within the first 3-5 picks. So he misses out on MHJ (he may or may believe that is who I am targeting, based on my previous drafting & my stronger need at RB he might not) he still will figure he can get either the #2 or 3 WR or take the top TE & gains another R2 this year & an extra R1 next year - if I go this route & forget about holding onto #3 for another deal to move down R1. Seeing as taking WR means I will have to get rid of one before the start of the season I can throw in Sutton or maybe Pickens if I have to. Or maybe next years R3 also - that however would leave me without a R1 or R3 pick next year. 

 

Again these ideas I threw out there aren't necessarily the TOTAL offer. It is as I said the "meat" or base of an offer to put out there. I understand I could have to sweeten the deal some more. I was just giving an idea where I was starting at. I'm willing to throw in Sutton (first one I would want to give up) or Pickens to make a deal happen - as I said because of in season position limits if I'm taking a WR one has to go. I'm fan of what I call the "double dip" & with having Herbert & K Allen getting up there in age I'm holding onto the LAC WR's.

 

One thing is if I am going to try to make a deal while holding onto #3 I'm not sure how I can make it happen without givng up my 25 & 26 R1 picks along with R2-10 or possibly/likely the R2-3 instead. I understand it will take a pretty big offer to get him to trade completely OUT of R1 this year but I just struggle personally with giving up the "house" to get ONE player. 

 

I definitely appreciate your time & talking me through all this. Thank you.

[Big Country]

56 minutes ago, FastSteve said:

I'm not saying that the offer of R1-3 & R2-10 is the TOTAL offer. That would be the "meat" of the offer. I'm not saying this to be argumentative with you at all but if you could please explain why someone would look at that base offer as laughable

Your post said holding onto the 1.3 and offering the 2.10 and 2025 R1 - that's the offer that would be laughable. If I misread my apologies.

1.3, 2.10 and 2025 R1 may not be quite enough to move from the 1 with the team he has depending on how he views the rookie values, but it's definitely something that he should consider.

[FastSteve]

1 hour ago, Big Country said:

Your post said holding onto the 1.3 and offering the 2.10 and 2025 R1 - that's the offer that would be laughable. If I misread my apologies.

1.3, 2.10 and 2025 R1 may not be quite enough to move from the 1 with the team he has depending on how he views the rookie values, but it's definitely something that he should consider.

I think I caused the confusion because I was talking about 2 DIFFERENT possible courses of action. One is me just doing some kind of swap with him with both our R1 picks this year. The other was trying to get him to trade OUT of R1 & then using that R1-3 pick to trade down, get a 25 R1 back & make it make sense to take an RB in later half of R1 or early R2. But to get him to trade completely out of R1 I know will either take one of my stud players & picks or is going take my 25 & 26 R1 picks along with probably my R2-3 pick & probably either my 25 R3 or R2 pick & probably a little more "sweetern". Which to me is just hard to swallow for ONE player - while very talented still unproven rookie coming to the NFL. If he is bust that kind of deal is a team burying outcome. 

Edited March 1 by FastSteve

[FastSteve]

I reached out to him. He seems open to talk about a potential deal for swapping R1 picks but seems to want to wait till after the NFL draft to see where the rookies land & might even wait for summer camp - likely for initial impressions I'm guessing. Plus he figures half the league will be calling for his pick. I pointed out his likely need at WR (which he basically confirmed is his intended direction) & the DESPERATE need at RB with the guy with pick 2 & that I want to get ahead of him because he has blown my drafts up a few times on me in the past. I said keep in mind you are only moving down a couple of spots in deal with me & at worst likely get the #2 guy on your list vs your 3rd, 4th or lower choice depending on where you trade down to. 

 

Considering Goff probably still has handful of years left I'm think maybe I should reach out to the Goff owner & offer Hooker up in an insurance trade. Like I said QB scoring is BIG in this league. No I don't expect much but the guy loves & mean really loves to trade. His QB are Goff, SEA G Smith & NYJ Wilson. Wilson will just sit on some teams bench next season. If he is going to have non playing QB it might as well be the backup to his starter. He has R4-5 & 10. Maybe I can get that 5 for Hooker & my R5-3. 

[FastSteve]

Big Country I would appreciate hearing your feedback on my last couple of replies. I've found your input informative. I would also like to learn more about difference I have in how much it takes to swap out just a few spots from #1. As I see it, yes the #1 pick does have the most value. The most viewed as a "sure thing". However I feel that overall one should see the first 4 to 5 picks as the surest picks. Meaning that there shouldn't be a huge value gap between # 1 & #3. I just don't feel on a straight deal (meaning comparing the PICK spots) I should have to give up the "house" to swap those picks. 

 

Now I know outside on that deal is the rest of the league. Likely 3 or 4 other teams further down the board will come calling & likely offer large compensation for the pick. So the owner of #1 will need to decide does he want a richer compensation package & move further down the board & likely not get one of his two top WR. Or does he want my offer. Where he only moves down a few spots & still has a good chance as I have lead him to believe (he basically said he is eyeing WR) he get his top pick & worse has to settle for his #2 choice as I pointed out. While also getting a little more WR DEPTH.

 

My initial conversation with him I talked about DEN Sutton as part of the deal. I didn't say it to him but if needed I will have no issue switching to PIT Pickens if needed to make it happen. As I would feel very good with CHI Moore, MIA Waddle, rookie MHJ as my main WR. I think I'm even willing to send him both Pickens & Sutton if necessary. Or Sutton & swap his R2-12 for my R2-10 & would hesitantly go my R2-3 instead. What I'm not willing to do to move up just two (meaning he is only giving up two spots in the deal where he is under the impression he could still get his preferred player & at worst takes his 2nd highest choice) is to give up future #1 picks or straight up giving up R2 picks. 

 

If I cannot strike a deal with him then I likely have to decide at #3 do I want to take Williams who there is given what I was lead to believe & based on team needs is likely to be there at #3 or do I take either who is viewed as the second best RB or WR? Because based on my conversation with guy with #1 pick & pick #2 team needs MHJ will go first & team at 2 will likely take the top RB - he needs an RB BAD. Or do go bold & take Brock Bowers & then deal Andrews after the draft? I've definitely had inquiries into Andrews before. Dealing him for players (maybe an RB in some kind of package) or for something in the 25 draft. Think I should get at least a #2 or might be able to work a package for #1 with Andrews as part of that. If I don't get the trade what do you see as my best move. I do have the R2-3 & 10 picks in a 12 team league. I am thinking at that R2-10 or my R3-3 pick going LB as my top 2 guys are going into season 7. 

 

Also what about that idea of hitting up the Goff owner about H Hooker? I think it's best even if it's just a little bit to get SOMETHING for him over holding onto a guy that will just sit on the bench - possibly for several years or cutting him & getting ZERO for him. Goff owner loves to trade too. He has R4-5 & 10. I can maybe get him to give one of those for my R5-3 pick. Not an expensive deal for him to get backup to his top QB. 

[FastSteve]

On 3/1/2024 at 2:31 PM, Big Country said:

Your post said holding onto the 1.3 and offering the 2.10 and 2025 R1 - that's the offer that would be laughable. If I misread my apologies.

1.3, 2.10 and 2025 R1 may not be quite enough to move from the 1 with the team he has depending on how he views the rookie values, but it's definitely something that he should consider.

If you could take a look at my last few replies & give me your thoughts I would be very appreciative. Thanks.

[Big Country]

Re: Hooker - yes, definitely see if you can get something for him. He has minimal real value so getting a 4th or something like that which can be used as a deal sweetener is worth it IMO.

As for the move up to #1, that depends on what the other owner wants. As mentioned before, in most leagues an in conversing with owners in other leagues, the price on the #1 this year has been pretty steep. Again, league setting dependent, but I've seen offers of the #5 and #6 rejected, I've offered two top 10 picks plus a 2025 1st and have been rejected and have even seen someone say that they offered the #2 and #3 in a non-SF league and get rejected.

I think the large driver of this is that, at least pre-combine and pre-draft, it seems that for most non-SF leagues, you basically have MHJ then a gap to the next tier of players. The QB pool is deep this year with a likely 4-6 QBs being taken in the first round, and in 1 QB leagues the position just does not carry the value that the other positions do. The WRs are really good with Odunze having a good combine and several others really showing out and the RBs were perceived to be weaker than usual, but several tested really well, so it will be interesting to see if that changes perceptions at all, though RBs are more than any position very landing spot dependent for their value.

You need to decide if there is a player you really want to move up for, and if so, what price you are willing to pay. The "market" seems to indicate you'd need to part with the 1.03 and at least 1 more significant asset, but your league and that owner may see it differently. You've said you are unwilling to give up an R2 or a future pick with the 1.03 to move up. That's a perfectly fine stance to have, but even that is a massive underpay based on what the 1.01 is going for in many leagues, so the fact you are unwilling to go there tells me that you should probably be prepping a strategy that doesn't involve moving up to the 1. It can't hurt to offer him the 1.03, the R2 bump and Sutton, unless the owner finds it an insultingly low offer and just cuts off any discussions. Since you've already floated the idea of moving for the #1, has he indicated to you what he would even be looking for if he were to make such a deal?

Another thing you mentioned is that the owner mentioned waiting through camp. When is your draft? If it isn't until closer to the season starts, then you may also want to wait until the draft/camp as there's a good chance that by that time instead of MHJ being in a tier all his own, the perceived values of rookies have condensed a bit and the value gap from 1 to 3 shrinks a bit.

[FastSteve]

Our draft is set for Aug 24th

Would I love to have MHJ? Absolutely. Is my need stronger at RB? Most definitely. I think I need to clarify a bit as I think I might have been a little confusing. He has R2-12 pick & I have picks R2-3 & 2-10. I have no issue swapping a couple of spots & including the 10 for the 12 & while I wouldn't like it I would hesitantly swap the R2-3 for the 2-12 along with Sutton, maybe Pickens instead. Or send both Sutton & Pickens along with swapping the 10 for the 12. I don't see me sending both WR & swapping the 2-3 for the 2-12 though to swap two spots in R1. 

 

While our draft is a ways off I think waiting could backfire. As he is sure to large compensation packages offer from teams further down the board which will only drive his asking price up. Other than essentially saying he is eyeing WR (presumably MHJ) & wanting to see how the NFL draft unfolds & maybe even summer camp he hasn't offered much else info. I got no feedback on his thoughts of my initial offer. I've dealt with him before. I put him middle of the pack & reasonable to deal with. He isn't a pushover but not an unreasonable PITA either to deal with. 

 

As I said with Williams it would be difficult to pass up a QB that is being called a generational talent in this league. While we only start 1 I cannot stress enough the importance of how big their scoring is. Like I said 40 points is a WEAK game. Cousins the 25th QB outscored the #1 RB & outscored all but the #1 WR. This is why I keep a min of 3 QB. Being it is Dynasty & we don't know upcoming NFL bye weeks. And that paid off years ago when I Roethlisberger, Newton & Cousins when they all were higher end QB because 1 year 2 of them were on bye same week. For perspective Russell Wilson who by all accounts had a bad season still avg 37.51 in this league. If Herbert goes down with what I got now I can likely stick a fork in my season. 

 

I'm sorry to pepper you with all these questions but the two people I trust their FF IQ the most play in this league or other leagues with me - thus kind of tipping the hand of what I'm thinking. But please thoughts on these alternatives.

 

PRE draft try to trade TE Andrews & my R2-3 to team with #4 for that #4 pick. Now he could use some help at RB & WR but is real rough at already thin TE - WAS L Thomas, NYG Weller, TEN Okonkwo. If he goes for it I can take Bowers with either 3 or 4. 

 

If I don't trade with him & don't take Bowers at 3 it is possible he takes Bowers at 4. There is also guy with pick 6 who could take Bowers (will see in a moment why I mention this) as he isn't terrible at RB & WR but might want Bowers at 6 having ATL Pitts & PIT Freirermuth. 

 

I could trade down with the guy with #8 pick. He has R1-8, R2-2/5/8, R3-10. I have R1-3, R2-3/10, R3-3, R5-3

I could offer him R1-3, R2-10, R3-3, R5-3 for R1-8 & his three R2 picks. I may not be able to get all 3 but I think I should be able to deal R1-3 R3-3 R5-3 for R1-8 & the 2 & 5 R2 picks. If I can pull that off then hit up guy at pick 6 offer Andrews & R2-5 for that #6 pick. Move up to the R2-3 & even the 2 if need be. If guy at R1-4 passes on Bowers & I trade Andrews to guy at #6 I could use # 6 & 8 picks elsewhere & could possibly land Bowers in R2 based on teams needs. 

 

Could this be a better course of action? I wouldn't get MHJ but if I can make these deals happen I would have two R1 picks & all 5 of my picks in a 12 team 2 division DYNASTY draft within the first 23 picks & MIGHT be able to get Bowers in R2. Meaning I could either go RB & QB R1 or go for two RB R1.

 

Sorry for the length, just a lot to break down. Especially being a dynasty league. I'm just not sure which way to go hard at. Yeah I would love to have MHJ in a PPR Dynasty but the other way in that same league I end up with 5 picks in the first 23 in that same league. Thoughts? 

[Big Country]

I've said it before, but I'll say it once more than let it go - your potential offer of the 1.3 and a bump up in the 2nd, or the 1.3 and a guy like Sutton or Pickens for the 1.1 are all very low offers compared to what the 1.1 is going for right now. Heck, the 1.3, 2.3 and a WR like Sutton without him including his 2nd rounder would be considered a low offer from just about everything I'm seeing. All that to say, if that's the type of package he would take now, offer it now and get it done.

As far the multiple scenarios you mentioned with Andrews, basically you could try deal him to be in a spot for Bowers, but then you're drafting Bowers hoping that he is Andrews just younger and hoping he doesn't get misused like Pitts so far. If you are confident in Bowers and not just having rookie fever, then by all means shop Andrews for what you can get.

And if your heart is set on Williams, take him at 3. Personally, nothing has changed for me from the way I'd plan to approach it from my first reply - with the 1.3 take Nabers/Odunze and then address QB at the 2.3. If Williams and MHJ go in the top 2, and you're not sold on either of those WRs, then look to sell the pick, or, at that time, if you really like Bowers landing spot, you can look to sell Andrews and then take Bowers at 1.3

[FastSteve]

I'm sorry I'm talking so much I think I am making things confusing. In the deal for #1 pick I wasn't suggesting he send me a R2 pick. That deal is swapping R1 picks & me sending him a WR. The R2 pick talk was if I was going to try to hold onto #3 while trying to get the #1 - which I have moved away from.

 

I can't try to make a trade DURING our draft. We have a 24 hour veto voting period in the league. Plus we only get 2 minutes a pick. 

 

I get it, according to what people are turning down my offer is insufficient. All I can do is make some offers I feel comfortable with. If he says no, then it doesnt happen. With the points you made I'm not feeling great about taking Williams at #3 but know he will not make to my next pick. While MHJ & likely my first choice at RB will be gone at #3 - guy at 2 needs an RB REALLY BAD. 

 

If Bowers ends up in a good situation what do you think of me trading down to #8 & moving Andrews & trying to nab Bowers in R2? If I trade down I think there is a good chance I could get either Nabers or Odunze at 8. The guy at 8 is STACKED at WR & if it isn't MHJ I don't see him going WR. Obviously I expect CW to go R1 & expect probably at least 1 more QB R1 along with a few RB. I feel there is a legit chance I could get one of those WR at #8 & as I said end up with a lot of picks in first 2 rounds. Obviously I have to wait for the NFL draft as guy with #1 said he is waiting & I also need to see where Bowers ends up.

 

Separate from trading Andrews what do you think of the trading down if I can't get the #1? Of note guy at 8 is NOT in my division. Guy at 6 is. I do not anticipate teams with pick 2, 5, 6 or team that would end up with #3 going WR. Teams with picks 4 & 7 could go either RB or WR - likely a split there. I feel there is a good chance one of the two WR you named will be there at 8. Definitely at 6 if I were to move Andrews. 

Edited March 6 by FastSteve

[FastSteve]

On 3/4/2024 at 7:30 PM, Big Country said:

I've said it before, but I'll say it once more than let it go - your potential offer of the 1.3 and a bump up in the 2nd, or the 1.3 and a guy like Sutton or Pickens for the 1.1 are all very low offers compared to what the 1.1 is going for right now. Heck, the 1.3, 2.3 and a WR like Sutton without him including his 2nd rounder would be considered a low offer from just about everything I'm seeing. All that to say, if that's the type of package he would take now, offer it now and get it done.

As far the multiple scenarios you mentioned with Andrews, basically you could try deal him to be in a spot for Bowers, but then you're drafting Bowers hoping that he is Andrews just younger and hoping he doesn't get misused like Pitts so far. If you are confident in Bowers and not just having rookie fever, then by all means shop Andrews for what you can get.

And if your heart is set on Williams, take him at 3. Personally, nothing has changed for me from the way I'd plan to approach it from my first reply - with the 1.3 take Nabers/Odunze and then address QB at the 2.3. If Williams and MHJ go in the top 2, and you're not sold on either of those WRs, then look to sell the pick, or, at that time, if you really like Bowers landing spot, you can look to sell Andrews and then take Bowers at 1.3

Not sure if you seen but would love to hear your thoughts about my last reply & those other trade scenarios if I don't get something done for the #1.

[Big Country]

You have 5.5 months until your draft. I think you are massively overthinking it right now, especially if most of your league mates aren't likely to do anything until after they see where players go in the draft and likely start getting camp reports with how late your draft is.

But, it can't hurt to send out feelers to see who is even interested in moving up to or for your #3 pick - it's silly not to at least listen to offers. And you should stay in touch with the guy at 1 and see if he'd at least give you a sense of what he would want for the pick. Maybe you get lucky and his asking price is very low and you can swoop in before anyone else starts hitting him up.

Being a PPR league, unless you have relatively novice owners or you really know your owners, I think you may be overestimating how the RBs will be valued and underestimating the WRs. I know you keep saying QB scores are high, but if all QB scores are high and they are still a relatively flat position like most typical scoring systems, then that does not make them more valuable, it just makes them higher scoring and a more volatile position.

[FastSteve]

On 3/6/2024 at 2:19 AM, Big Country said:

You have 5.5 months until your draft. I think you are massively overthinking it right now, especially if most of your league mates aren't likely to do anything until after they see where players go in the draft and likely start getting camp reports with how late your draft is.

But, it can't hurt to send out feelers to see who is even interested in moving up to or for your #3 pick - it's silly not to at least listen to offers. And you should stay in touch with the guy at 1 and see if he'd at least give you a sense of what he would want for the pick. Maybe you get lucky and his asking price is very low and you can swoop in before anyone else starts hitting him up.

Being a PPR league, unless you have relatively novice owners or you really know your owners, I think you may be overestimating how the RBs will be valued and underestimating the WRs. I know you keep saying QB scores are high, but if all QB scores are high and they are still a relatively flat position like most typical scoring systems, then that does not make them more valuable, it just makes them higher scoring and a more volatile position.

I'll give some insight later on those thoughts as I'm already making long replies & don't want a book. Anyway I got approached this morning about what would it take to get the #3 pick & it was pointed out by this person they have 2 R1 picks. Unfortunately they are # 10 & 11. At those picks I have to believe & assume all 3 WR we talked about, probably the top 3 RB choices, CW & probably at least one more QB & possible Bowers would all be off the board by #10. If I'm going WR or RB in the R1 I really don't feel great about not getting a guy that is in my top 3. 

 

What do you think of this? I name my price as his R1-10 & 11, PHI WR AJ Brown, DAL TE Ferguson 

For my 

R1-3, R5-3, QB DET Hooker - he is the Goff owner who I offered Hooker to in that small trade deal,  WR PIT Pickens, TE BAL Andrews - he has asked about him in the past, I can even throw in BAL TE Likely if he wants Andrews  "insurance package". Even if Bowers is there at those picks I probably don't need to consider him then as I would have 2 promising young TE on good teams with good QB. 

 

If he accepts while it would at the back half of R1 I would have 4 picks within the first 22 picks of the draft & would have all my picks in by R3-3 - 27th overall pick. I also MIGHT POSSIBLY be able to package PIT RB Harris & one of two R1 picks for one of the picks between 4-6. My gut says 4 is the most unlikely but I think I can get either the #5 or 6 pick to bite. 

 

So first what do you think of that trade offer I'm contemplating? If you agree with it, then what do you think about using Harris to bump back up a bit on one of the R1 spots?

Edited March 7 by FastSteve

[FastSteve]

On 3/6/2024 at 2:19 AM, Big Country said:

You have 5.5 months until your draft. I think you are massively overthinking it right now, especially if most of your league mates aren't likely to do anything until after they see where players go in the draft and likely start getting camp reports with how late your draft is.

But, it can't hurt to send out feelers to see who is even interested in moving up to or for your #3 pick - it's silly not to at least listen to offers. And you should stay in touch with the guy at 1 and see if he'd at least give you a sense of what he would want for the pick. Maybe you get lucky and his asking price is very low and you can swoop in before anyone else starts hitting him up.

Being a PPR league, unless you have relatively novice owners or you really know your owners, I think you may be overestimating how the RBs will be valued and underestimating the WRs. I know you keep saying QB scores are high, but if all QB scores are high and they are still a relatively flat position like most typical scoring systems, then that does not make them more valuable, it just makes them higher scoring and a more volatile position.

BC I would really like to hear your thoughts on those thoughts I threw out there. I know you said the draft is not for some time & I'm overthinking it but trust me the trade offers are flying in this league & if I sit around waiting trades could happen that will kill deals I might have been able to make otherwise. 

 

If I make that move down deal I get a top WR with plenty left in the tank & a promising young TE. If he doesn't want to go for that deal I can try to sweeten it with a R3 or R2 from next year for his R4. I wouldn't have to be focused on WR or TE. I could then be looking at RB & QB.

 

Then there is that deal idea with PIT Harris if I get other deal done. I'm confident I could move him & either the R1-10 or 11 with one of the teams that has R1-4, 5 or 6. All need help at RB. R1-6 probably the least of them. Guy with the 5th is a best friend who is considered family. I had a conversation with him & know his focus will be RB. So I'm pretty sure I can get him to swap picks & get back to the 5th pick & get either my 2nd or 3rd choice RB at 5 & then get somewhere between my 2nd to 4th choice at QB with either the 10th or 11th pick. Then I can likely get the best LB at that R2-3 pick. If Harris isn't enough to get him to swap with me I could offer my R2-10 pick for his R3-5 pick. He has no R2 pick this year. 

 

I think making these two deals & that draft plan would give me the chance for the strongest OVERALL team. Or do you feel that strong about MHJ that I should wait for the guy with #1 to "open the door for business" & make my play for that pick, make it happen & take MHJ? You really are in tune with FF so I would love to hear your thoughts, please & thank you so much. 

[Big Country]

What would be your goal with dealing the 3 in that scenario?

You do likely get better at WR going from Pickens to AJB, though his production trailed off badly at the end of the season, but you likely get worse at TE and drop from an elite prospect pick to 2 pretty good prospects. It's a "fair" trade, but I don't know that you necessarily come out better from it.

I'm not very bullish on Harris, so using him to move up is something I wouldn't be opposed to doing. Heck, if the guy at 1 needs an RB, maybe you build something on Harris and the #3 for the #1. You draft MHJ, and he still gets a top 3 WR at 3 to go with adding Harris to his RB room. If his team is bad enough where it needs multiple pieces to be competitive, he may be receptive to such a deal, especially since it seems your league really values RBs highly.

[FastSteve]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:18 PM, Big Country said:

What would be your goal with dealing the 3 in that scenario?

You do likely get better at WR going from Pickens to AJB, though his production trailed off badly at the end of the season, but you likely get worse at TE and drop from an elite prospect pick to 2 pretty good prospects. It's a "fair" trade, but I don't know that you necessarily come out better from it.

I'm not very bullish on Harris, so using him to move up is something I wouldn't be opposed to doing. Heck, if the guy at 1 needs an RB, maybe you build something on Harris and the #3 for the #1. You draft MHJ, and he still gets a top 3 WR at 3 to go with adding Harris to his RB room. If his team is bad enough where it needs multiple pieces to be competitive, he may be receptive to such a deal, especially since it seems your league really values RBs highly.

Sorry it took so long to get back to you. Too much going on in life. Anyway tried to swing a deal which would have been I send R1-3, R3-3 & R5-3 for R1-8, R2-2 & R2-5. That isn't going to happen. 

 

So now I'm going to hit up the guy with the R1-10/11 picks who came calling for #3 & pointed out he has two R1's. After I talked to him about a small deal of QB DET Hooker & R5-3 for his R4-5, he has Goff & Z Wilson who's useless as a back. At least this way the backup QB is the actual backup to his starter. Anyway I'm going hardball at him. 

I send R1-3 R3-3(he has no R3 currently), R5-3, DEN WR Sutton, will switch out to Pickens if needed (which WR would be your first choice to include in the trade?), DET QB Hooker

He gives

R1-10 & 11, R4-5, PHI WR AJ Brown. 

I'll sweeten the deal a little bit somehow if I have to. I'm telling him w/o Brown in it I won't make the deal because I'm all but guaranteed to miss out on my top 6 to 7 guys trading down to those spots. This way I won't need a WR either. I would be sitting with Brown, DJ Moore & Waddle backed up by LAC Palmer & Johnston & either Pickens or Sutton. I'm pretty sure he probably wants whichever QB (likely Caleb Williams) Bears draft, he's in the Chicago area & is solid at RB, WR & TE & not desperate at any of them.

 

With that in mind I have deal set to trade back up to #5 if I can complete this deal (he only knows what picks I will have to offer him. The deal that is agreed to is

I send R1-11, R2-10, R4-5

He sends R1-5, R3-5, R4-8

While it will be a longer shot with #5 that still leaves me CHANCE to make a play at the #1 pick in trade. Although then I really don't need to do so because then I wouldn't need a WR & the idea of #1 would be to get MHJ. I can do it if I feel Caleb Williams is really worth it. At 5 I can get that QB & #10 I could get an RB or Bowers if he is there - though I don't really need TE with BAL Andrews & GB Musgrave. I think I will probably be able to get 3rd ranked RB there given what I expect in the draft, 4th at absolute worst. Then with R2-3 I should be able to get either the #1 or 2 ranked LB. 

 

I think these moves will help build the most depth I will be able to get. What do you think about that plan?

Edited March 19 by FastSteve

[FastSteve]

On 3/11/2024 at 3:18 PM, Big Country said:

What would be your goal with dealing the 3 in that scenario?

You do likely get better at WR going from Pickens to AJB, though his production trailed off badly at the end of the season, but you likely get worse at TE and drop from an elite prospect pick to 2 pretty good prospects. It's a "fair" trade, but I don't know that you necessarily come out better from it.

I'm not very bullish on Harris, so using him to move up is something I wouldn't be opposed to doing. Heck, if the guy at 1 needs an RB, maybe you build something on Harris and the #3 for the #1. You draft MHJ, and he still gets a top 3 WR at 3 to go with adding Harris to his RB room. If his team is bad enough where it needs multiple pieces to be competitive, he may be receptive to such a deal, especially since it seems your league really values RBs highly.

Something to add with the QB situation. To keep in mind. Looks like LV O'Connell is going to lose out to Minshew, DET Hooker isn't even going to sniff starting unless Goff is injured, TEN Levis isn't going to cut it for any long term needs (TEN is terrible) & there is a LOT of smoke around NYG Jones. He seems to have little security in terms of being locked in as the starter & with guaranteed money that affects the c regardless of injury NYG seem to be seeking other options by all reports. I think that #2 QB is becoming increasingly important & more of an issue at this point. Pass TD are 6 & point per completion, loss of 2 points for INT but no loss for sacks. At this point it is looking like if Herbert gets hurt again I will be done.

[Big Country]

I'm still of the mind that in 1 QB leagues, you need to be careful not to overrate them. Having a point per completion does change things a bit, but then you want to find the high volume pocket passers - it actually devalues the hybrid QBs that run a lot a fair bit as the rushing doesn't make up ground on the QB that passes 40+ times a game if they are only throwing 25 times and picking up 40-50 yards rushing on average.

While it's still likely not the way I would approach it, using the 3 on a QB is not terrible, but if it means passing on a MHJ/Nabors it probably is still a pretty bad idea. Instead of trying to send Hooker to the Goff owner, see if you can get him to send you Goff - he was #2 in the league last year in completions and attempts with no reason to think that will go down this year, and with Harbaugh in town likely looking to implement a run first offense, no reason to think Herbert will suddenly spike in passing attempts.

[FastSteve]

49 minutes ago, Big Country said:

I'm still of the mind that in 1 QB leagues, you need to be careful not to overrate them. Having a point per completion does change things a bit, but then you want to find the high volume pocket passers - it actually devalues the hybrid QBs that run a lot a fair bit as the rushing doesn't make up ground on the QB that passes 40+ times a game if they are only throwing 25 times and picking up 40-50 yards rushing on average.

While it's still likely not the way I would approach it, using the 3 on a QB is not terrible, but if it means passing on a MHJ/Nabors it probably is still a pretty bad idea. Instead of trying to send Hooker to the Goff owner, see if you can get him to send you Goff - he was #2 in the league last year in completions and attempts with no reason to think that will go down this year, and with Harbaugh in town likely looking to implement a run first offense, no reason to think Herbert will suddenly spike in passing attempts.

So you like the idea better of trying to get Goff instead of AJ Brown? Of course at that point I would throw Jones in. Only way I MIGHT get him to go with it as he other QB are G Smith  from SEA who may be looking to do something after aquiring Howell. Then he has Zach Wilson who looks to be all but done. He will have to be willing to use that #3 on a QB if he makes the deal. 

 

If he won't go for trading Goff, do you like the idea of going after AJB? As I said that would make me solid at WR. I all but have a deal in place to then move back up to #5. At 5 I might still be able to get one of those WR you named. However we can only play 3 WR with the flex. I could then aim for a QB with the #10 pick (should still get one within the top 4-5 ranked, if things fall good maybe the #3 QB) use the R2-3 pick for an RB & R3-3 for an LB like I mentioned & then would be picking again at R3-5. I think this could be another good way to build overall team depth. Honestly my gut tells me I'm more likely to get him to deal AJB before Goff. 

Edited March 19 by FastSteve