Player movement/Coaches' mindsets

[Swiss Cheezhead]

Player Movement

 

1. Where will Travis Henry end up?

 

All indications are that Arizona is the favorite to acquire Henry, but one thing is certain -- he won't be staying in Buffalo. Henry will almost certainly fill one of the FEW real holes at the RB position among the NFL teams. If Arizona does get Henry, they could go almost ANY direction with their 1st pick (CB, OL, DL, QB). Mark my words: after Henry gets traded, one of the "Big 3 RBs" will fall FAR down the draft board.

 

2. Where will Patrick Surtain end up?

 

The trade market for Surtain is understandably slow right now, given the available CB talent in the draft. Still, it's probable that Surtain will end up on another team before April 23rd -- likely the Chiefs, possibly Denver or Jacksonville. Not only would that fill one team's need at CB, but it would create a HUGE hole at Miami's CB position. If that happens, it would obviously create more reason for Miami to trade down and grab a RB a little later. If they can't, I would expect them to go either RB 1st, CB 2nd, or CB 1st, RB 2nd.

 

3. Where will Ty Law end up?

 

Similar to the Surtain situation, Law's destination could have significant ramifications elsewhere. First of all, it would probably cause his new team to look at a different position in the 1st round. Also, it would make Surtain's value even lower.

 

4. Where will Darren Howard end up?

 

I believe the Saints are committed to trading Howard before the draft. The biggest reason is to clear cap space in order to re-sign a few key players (Joe Horn, Mike McKenzie, etc.). The secondary reason is that they lost their 2nd-round pick to acquire McKenzie and would like to get a 1st- or 2nd-rounder back to fill more needs. The team that lands Howard will have their need for a strong DE (Dallas, San Diego, Washington, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Denver) and that team will probably focus on a different position in round 1.

 

 

Coaches' Mindsets

 

1. Romeo Crennel

 

If you really think the Browns will choose a QB with their #3 pick, consider a few of the following factors. Crennel is a defensive guy. The Browns have needs all over the roster, ESPECIALLY on defense. Those needs will tempt the Browns to trade down. Neither Rodgers or Smith is worth the #3 pick. The Browns acquired a veteran QB in Trent Dilfer, who's had success as a starter. Crennel enjoyed a lot of success watching a 6th-round QB manage an offense.

 

I personally believe that Crennel HAS to be distressed about his current LB corps. His system requires solid, athletic LBs to work, so I think he and Phil Savage will look to address that position first and foremost.

 

2. Joe Gibbs

 

So, if the Browns pass on a QB, who will snatch up the #2 QB? The Buccaneers? No. Gruden loves Simms and is very happy with Griese in the meantime. Tennessee? No. McNair is back for another year and they recently re-signed Billy Volek to a long-term deal BEFORE he played well last year. The Cardinals? I don't think so. They also have more pressing needs, especially considering Dennis Green honestly believes either Warner or McCown will step up this year. That leaves the Redskins, and Gibbs will have to make a decision. To me, Gibbs probably doesn't believe Smith or Rodgers is more talented than Ramsey and, even if he did, there's no WAY he'll be willing to wait for a QB to develop. The 'Skins also have more pressing needs to address.

 

3. Bill Parcells

 

Well, if the #2 QB makes it past the 'Skins (and, yes, he'll make it past the Lions as well), will Parcells pull the trigger? I doubt it. In a similar situation as Gibbs, the Tuna is not exactly in patience-mode this year. At #11, Parcells will have an opportunity to draft an impact starter on defense and that's exactly what he'll do.

 

4. Dick Vermeil

 

The next 3 teams (San Diego, Houston, & Carolina) certainly won't take a QB, which brings us to the Chiefs, who have an aging Trent Green behind center. However, Vermeil is also close to leaving Kansas City and is much more concerned about NOW than later (See: Gibbs, Joe & Parcells, Bill). Kansas City will also take a defensive player who figures to start immediately.

 

 

Here's my point -- there is only ONE team with a need at QB AND the patience to develop one: San Francisco. Among the other teams with "apparent" QB needs, all have coaches who will almost certainly be looking for improvements elsewhere. Result: either Alex Smith of Aaron Rodgers will fall past the middle of the first round. If Cleveland trades with Minnesota (the logical move, in my opinion), I bet they could still get their QB at #18. That is, if they can resist drafting Jammal Brown or Khalif Barnes to play OT.

 

Expect all the current 1st-round mock drafts to change SIGNIFICANTLY before the draft and, of course, still expect to be surprised on draft day.

[Rovers]

I can see most of your points, with a few exceptions. Gruden does not love Simms, in fact he hates, absolutley hates ALL QB's. He is in my opinion, the single WORST coach to break in a new QB in the NFL. Remember the sideline hissy fits he threw at Gannon, on the way to the playoffs each year? No, Chuckie hates QB's, and I feel sorry for Simms.... Tampa is the last place he wants to be. Gruden expects perfection from QB's, and young QB's make mistakes. Just look at some of Gruden's recent quotes. He ripped Simms apart.

 

If Miami wasnt in the same division, Surtain could be a Jet. Despite that, I think the Jets are still in that mix.

 

All signs point to Rodgers to SF. I agree, Smith falls, a looong way. Some teams even like Frye over him.

 

I think Green has dug his heels in, in the Henry trade. He'll go RB in the draft, unless Buffalo comes to thier senses.

 

And on your last point, about being surprised.... that is the only thing that can be banked on!

[seminoles]

john gruden was a QB

[Swiss Cheezhead]

I can see most of your points, with a few exceptions. Gruden does not love Simms, in fact he hates, absolutley hates ALL QB's... Just look at some of Gruden's recent quotes. He ripped Simms apart.

 

754894[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

I've read quite a few articles in the Tampa Tribune and it's become pretty clear that Griese is totally comfortable with Simms -- as a 2006 backup. There is NO WAY Gruden will draft another QB (especially if he "hates them) at #5, just to watch TWO young QBs develop slowly. It doesn't make sense.