Jacksonville WR Situation ?

[Jimmy_22]

Anybody have insight into the Jacksonville WR situation? Jones is obviously the #1, but looks like Williams (rated 3rd on the depth chart) was more involved than Wilford. Is Williams coming out of the slot or just getting open? Any insight?

 

WR Jones, Matt - 8 thrown to, 5 catches, 71 yards

WR Williams, Reggie - 7 thrown to, 6 catches, 47 yards, 1TD, 2 redzone looks

WR Wilford, Ernest - 5 thrown to, 3 catches, 58 yards, 1 rezone look

 

Williams is waiver wire fodder, but is he worth a roster spot?

[Goopster24]

Williams IMO is their "No. 2" if that means anything. They havne't written him off yet even though Wilford has been a stud. Either way, I still do like Williams more than Wilford at this point in time. Who knows what will happen next week though.

[tonorator]

he is worth it to me. i just picked him up in one of my leagues ... of course, that team sucks, so what the hell.

[DFox]

Williams is worth a pickup and Wilford is NOT a stud.

[Goopster24]

Williams is worth a pickup and Wilford is NOT a stud.

 

 

Wilford was a better all-around wide receiver last year compared to Williams. That said, the coaching staff is so high on Williams.

[H8tank]

Wilford was being drafted too high to have much value, I saw someone at WCOFF draft him in the 6th.

 

Matt jones is great if you are banking on 44 catches.

 

Reggie is in a make or break year, his 3rd, I changed my mind on him and drafted him where I could, which is very late.

 

He may get 40 catches, but he is poised for 80+. Gotta roll the dice to win sometimes.

[Crispy]

Wilford was being drafted too high to have much value, I saw someone at WCOFF draft him in the 6th.

 

Matt jones is great if you are banking on 44 catches.

 

Reggie is in a make or break year, his 3rd, I changed my mind on him and drafted him where I could, which is very late.

 

He may get 40 catches, but he is poised for 80+. Gotta roll the dice to win sometimes.

 

 

 

 

I paid $1 for Wilford (5th WR on Roster). I can afford to wait more than one week to see if the above is a trend.

[PaulOttCarruth]

Wilford was being drafted too high to have much value, I saw someone at WCOFF draft him in the 6th.

 

Matt jones is great if you are banking on 44 catches.

 

Reggie is in a make or break year, his 3rd, I changed my mind on him and drafted him where I could, which is very late.

 

He may get 40 catches, but he is poised for 80+. Gotta roll the dice to win sometimes.

 

 

I generally agree with this. I think Williams has the most upside. However, out of Jones' 44 catches, I think 9-10 of them could be TDs.

[keggerz]

I did a breakdown prior to the season on the Jax WRs

 

http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...hl=jacksonville

 

Ok so here goes how I broke down and came up with the projections for the Jax WRs

 

I again looked at the previous 3 yrs

 

Offensive Plays Ran:

2003:1024(plays were exactly 50% run vs pass)

2004: 991(51.8% were passing plays)

2005:1021(47.4% were passing plays)

3yrAVG: 1012(49.7% were passing plays)

 

I am using 1000 plays for my 2006 projections so if anything you can add a smidge to my projections I am also going to use 50% passing to rushing plays...2005 was the 1st time in 3yrs there was a less then balanced attack on offense...with Fred Taylor a yr older and no true replacement I am going to use 50% as a baseline but I thin that this yr it could swing to 52% on passing plays)

 

PASSING STATS:

2003: 302/512 3389yds compl%58.9%

2004: 305/513 3315yds compl%59.5%

2005: 281/484 3340yds compl%58.1%

 

going to use 59% as a completion% for the projections

 

RECVNG STATS:

2003: WR1=72/1073*(23.8% of completions/31.7% of yds)

WR2=35/487(11.6% of completions/14.4% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

*Jimmy was suspended for the 1st 4 games so I extrapolated out his season to a full 16 games)

 

2004: WR1=74/1172(24.3% of completions/35.4% of yds)

WR2=50/533(16.4% of completions/16.1% of yds)

3rd best recvr was a RB(Freddy)

 

2005: WR1=70/1023(24.9% of completions/30.6% of yds)

WR2=41/681(14.6% of completions/20.4% of yds)

WR3=35/445(12.5% of completions/13.3% of yds)

 

 

OK so those are the stats that I used to come up with the projections

There are a couple of variable that I factored in(my opinion of course):

1. The Jags werent very deep at Recvr in 03 & 04

2. Jimmy Smith passing the torch and all the other WRs are starting to step up but just as much as Freddy is getting old too...a key player that could change the WR3 numbers would be Drew but I am going to assume that the #3 WR is actually the 3rd best recvr again in 2006.

 

2006 Projections:

1000 offensive plays(split 50/50 run/pass)

PASSING

59% Completion %

295 Completions

500 Attempts

3400 Passing Yards(since Smith is gone and the Recvng corp has a better RAC ability I am giving an uptick in passing yards...but note this would be a team high for the last 4 yrs..the 3yr avg is 3348yds)

 

RECVNG

WR1 stats will =24% of completions and 33% of passing yards

WR2 stats will =15% of completions and 18% of passing yards

WR3 stats will =13% of completions and 13% of passing yards(this was the hardest to guage)

 

So that means that the JAX Recvng stats will be:

WR1=72/1122

WR2=45/612

WR3=39/442

 

as for who is WR1, 2 or 3 well that is for you to figure out...if a true #1 doesnt step up then the numbers could very well even out more between the 3 WRs....

 

hope someone finds that this helps if not

Edited September 15, 2006 by keggerz