i_am_the_swammi Posted September 21, 2007 Share Posted September 21, 2007 (edited) 3 weeks in a row wow, for a guy that seems to know a lot about football, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the Pack were very lucky to cover in Week 1....I am sure Vegas didn't anticiapte two muffed punts leading to 10 GB points. Week 2, the Redskins went against almost every trend Dre posted, so if you think I am slanted to the home team, then perhaps you should take your opinion up with the 62% of the public that also bet the Eagles. Week 3 looks like a gimme....there are a number of plays each week Vegas wants the public to take, and a 2-0 6.5 point dog is one of them....but since you seem to be boldly telling people to go the other way, how bout a lil' sideline sig-bet action? BTW, check the Week 1 thread...my play of the week, and only play I recommended to others, was the under in the PHL/GB game. Edited September 21, 2007 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 21, 2007 Share Posted September 21, 2007 wow, for a guy that seems to know a lot about football, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize the Pack were very lucky to cover in Week 1....I am sure Vegas didn't anticiapte two muffed punts leading to 10 GB points. Week 2, the Redskins went against almost every trend Dre posted, so if you think I am slanted to the home team, then perhaps you should take your opinion up with the 62% of the public that also bet the Eagles. Week 3 looks like a gimme....there are a number of plays each week Vegas wants the public to take, and a 2-0 6.5 point dog is one of them....but since you seem to be boldly telling people to go the other way, how bout a lil' sideline sig-bet action? BTW, check the Week 1 thread...my play of the week, and only play I recommended to others, was the under in the PHL/GB game. Wow, you take things way too seriously. I don't think the Lions are a good play, I've never said anything like that. I found it funny that you, as an Eagle fan, recommended the Eagles 3 straight weeks. It's all in good fun. Lighten up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
quinlan12 Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 Those were not the numbers when I placed my bets on Tuesday morning, as previously stated. At the time I actually placed the bets, the lines were exactly as stated: Indy (-5), NE (-15.5), San Diego (-4). Since that time they have all risen to the numbers that you have (that is, I got them before they all inflated). There's no exact science to picking anyways. Even the best better knows that you'll win some and you'll lose some. However I highly doubt that all of those games will be wrong as you stated. Hard to believe that the Pats won't continue steamrolling against the banged-up bills secondary, that San Diego and L.T. won't get it back together against Green Bay, and that Indy won't do well against an Andre Johnson-less Houston when they beat Tennessee on the road just this weekend. I'd be less surprised to see them all correct. Well I certainly wish you luck Crazysight! Except of course on the ones where we directly oppose each other Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 (edited) " Last week, the Indi line (-6.5 @ TEN) and the CIN line (-6.5 @ CLE) were the exact same thing... those were "obvious ones" too and they went 0-2" If you look back to last week's thread, you'll see that my "Pick of the week" was actually Tennessee (+7) against Indianapolis. That was my winning pick and, contrary to your statement, not so obvious. And yes, a lot of people were burned by Cincy/Cleveland. Edited September 22, 2007 by Crazysight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 (edited) Well I certainly wish you luck Crazysight! Except of course on the ones where we directly oppose each other My picks are already long-since in, so there's no changing them now anyways. I feel pretty good about them nonetheless. I'm a bit concerned about Houston if Jacoby Jones should step up, but not very concerned about the other two. I feel pretty good about them on the whole. I wish you luck with yours as well (except for those where we oppose, as you said). Edited September 22, 2007 by Crazysight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crazysight Posted September 22, 2007 Author Share Posted September 22, 2007 (edited) I'll say this about Detroit...they do have their weaknesses and are far from a sure thing against Philly. Detroit's O'line doesn't protect very well, and their defense probably isn't as good as Philly's either even though Philly's defense hasn't looked dominant as it has in the past. Philly also has a better runningback (although Kevin Jones is supposed to return this week in limited capacity and may give Detroit's running game a boost). However what Detroit does have is a better quarterback (McNabb needs to spend less time running his mouth and more time preparing for games), and much, much better wide receivers. And I emphasize the word much. Detroit may have the best combination of wideouts in the NFL, while Philadelphia has to be in competition with Minnesota for the worst. At a +230 moneyline (what it originally was, it has since changed to +200 (or a payout of 3 times your bet), which is also pretty decent I think) it's noit a bad game to put a little money on the underdog.. Edited September 22, 2007 by Crazysight Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigMikeinNY Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 Week 1 1-0 Week 2 0-2 Week 3 SF +9, Atl +3.5, and over 44.5 Phi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 EAGLES (-6) over Lions Read my lips: There's no stinkin' way the Eagles will be 0-3. No matter how unispiring they have looked, I keep coming back to this one particular nugget: Detroit is 11-46 on the road since 2000. Here's a stat that means nothing to sportsbettors like ourselves. Sounds like something Stu Scott would state on SportsCenter. First of all, we know Det is a far different team then they have been 2000-2006. That being said: ATS, Det has been 29-28 on the road since 2000. ATS as a dog, Det has been 29-25 on the road since 2000. ATS as a dog of +6 or more, Det has been 19-11 on the road since 2000. As I firmly believe, anyone can throw out an impressive stat on just about anything. YOU have to think deeper about every stat and determine if it is a realistic stat and makes sense to you. Now, adding some other truth to the matter: Road teams who opened at +6.5 since 2000 have gone 43-27 ATS (61%). They've gone just about the opposite SU (25-45). So far this year they have gone 2-0. Last year they went 8-2. They don't always win. In fact, in 2001 they went 1-5. Here's how they have done since 2000: season ATS 2007 2-0-0 (17.0) 2006 8-2-0 (9.7) 2005 5-4-0 (-1.8) 2004 7-6-0 (0.0) 2003 3-3-0 (0.3) 2002 5-5-0 (-0.3) 2001 1-5-0 (-4.7) 2000 12-2-0 (7.7) Now, all of that said, Det has lost some value in the line this week. Road Underdogs that are 2-0 vs Home Favs that are 0-2 have gone just 1-1 in the last 5 years. That essentially shows it is very rare for a team to be an underdog w/ a 2-0 record against a winless home team. Another stat I'll throw on the table: Home teams that lost at home the prior week on Monday Night Football who are favored this week are 1-5 ATS since 2000. Not a large sample set, however somewhat suprising. I would think that a team who lost at home as a favorite on MNF (the whole nation saw the loss) would have a stronger ATS showing the following week, as more of the public would be on their opponent the following week. So this is a trend favoring Det, although not what I would consider a STRONG trend by any means. Too small a sample set... At any rate, it takes a lot for me to lay points in the NFL. I'm certainly not laying them on Philly this week. For me it's either a no play or a play on Det. I have not made my selection yet, however that is my thinking as I finalize my picks over the next 24 hrs... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
admtahoe Posted September 22, 2007 Share Posted September 22, 2007 My 8 team parlay for tomorrow is: Colts -6.5 Jets -3.5 Bucs -3.5 Raiders -3.5 Lions +6.5 Steelers -8.5 Broncos -3.5 Panthers -4.5 I play a bet every week for 10 bucks at 180-1 We'll see what happens Kevin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Here's what I like so far this week: DET + 7 and DET ML bet. I don't think Detroit is great, but they are much improved. Philly is really struggling right now, as we've seen thus far. I like DET to cover, and I think there's an outside shot they coud even win it. At +230 I'm willing to place a small bet. Also like CIN +3 on the bounceback, and CIN/SEA under 50. Hope to get back on later with a few more plays. Good luck everybody Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Stuck with my original thoughts. Trying for 3 weeks in a row with the 3 team teaser: Pittsburgh (Pick) Indianapolis (+3) Buffalo (+27) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 Fav: KC Dogs: Dal, Ten, GB Not feeling too strongly about this week one way or another. Going light today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojo Rising Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 My takings: Strong CAR -4.5 KC -3 NYG/WAS Over 42 Mild DAL +3 JAX +3.5 Wish you all luck.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 ]Player's note: When the Eagle's fans come in and tell you that the Eagles are the 'Play of the week', ignore them, or bet the opposite. Good info here. regardless of Menudo's bias, that line is screaming to take the Lions. a 2-0 getting 6.5 against a 0-2 team? Vegas is trying hard for some reason to gneerate Detroit action, and by the tone of this board, they will be getting it. very similar to last week's CHI/KC line...they were begging the betting public to take CHI -12 over a lousy KC team, and the public got slaughtered. do as you will, but PHL -6.5 is the right play as Philly bounces back against a Lions team that is a tad over-rated at this point, on the road, and playing a desperate team. better info here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 23, 2007 Share Posted September 23, 2007 (edited) solid call on over 44.5, too. Edited September 23, 2007 by i_am_the_swammi Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Good info here.better info here. Congrats Swammi. Your boys looked more like themselves today. Seriously dude, you had to know I was just messing with you. You and I have kind of had a back and fourth battle on these boards the last couple of years, and I thought you realized it was all in good fun. P.S. Do you still not believe the Steelers will win more than 8 games ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Stuck with my original thoughts. Trying for 3 weeks in a row with the 3 team teaser: Pittsburgh (Pick) Indianapolis (+3) Buffalo (+27) Running up the score, cheating mother f'ers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 P.S. Do you still not believe the Steelers will win more than 8 games ? uhh.....you remembered that little wager, huh? and i know its all in good fun....we philly fans get a little too passionate about our teams some, er, most of the time....especially when they self-destruct. they weren't as bad as weeks 1&2, and aren't as good as they were today....it'll be interesting to see where they settle in. cheers to your rock solid 3-0 Steeler's start! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HowboutthemCowboys Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 Running up the score, cheating mother f'ers sorry you lost, but thats funny. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 24, 2007 Share Posted September 24, 2007 I have a question to ask all of you fellow degenerates. Last Monday night I placed the following ridiculous 5 team parlay bet just for kicks. I had lost on Chicago v K.C. and gave back all my profits from week one, just playing it low key I punched in this: 5 Team Parlay # Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL - WEEK 2 (231) Washington Redskins +245 Mon@8:30p Competitor: (232) Philadelphia Eagles Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (414) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-105) Sun@1:00p Competitor: (413) St. Louis Rams Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (421) Carolina Panthers -4 (-105) Sun@4:15p Competitor: (422) Atlanta Falcons Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (425) Dallas Cowboys +3 Sun@8:15p Competitor: (426) Chicago Bears Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (427) Tennessee Titans +4½ Sep 24/07@8:30p Competitor: (428) New Orleans Saints Risk $10.00 to win $469.29 I also made a $20 3 team parlay yesterday so already up about $100 for the week. My question is, do you hedge this bet? And if so, how would you hedge it? My problem is that this is the one game I was most sure of when I made the bet. But with $469 worth of wiggle room, I am inclined to hedge. Someone talk me out of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i_am_the_swammi Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 Early Lines for Week 4: 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 205 Oakland Raiders +4 - - 206 Miami Dolphins -4 - - 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 207 Houston Texans -3 - - 208 Atlanta Falcons +3 - - 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 209 Baltimore Ravens -4½ (-105) - - 210 Cleveland Browns +4½ (-115) - - 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 211 Chicago Bears -3 (+105) - - 212 Detroit Lions +3 (-125) - - 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 213 Green Bay Packers -2½ - - 214 Minnesota Vikings +2½ - - 1:00pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 215 St. Louis Rams +12 - - 216 Dallas Cowboys -12 - - 4:05pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 221 Seattle Seahawks -2½ - - 222 San Francisco 49ers +2½ - - 4:15pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 223 Pittsburgh Steelers -6 - - 224 Arizona Cardinals +6 - - 4:15pNFL - WEEK 4Preview Matchup Injuries 225 Kansas City Chiefs +12 - - 226 San Diego Chargers -12 ------------------------------------------------------------------- If you like to play the middle, there are some lines I think will be doing some serious moving: Dallas should go up -14 with STL missing Jackson Chicago should go to -4 or -5 Ravens should go to -6 Games not listed means there is no line due to injuries. Just FYI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 I have a question to ask all of you fellow degenerates. Last Monday night I placed the following ridiculous 5 team parlay bet just for kicks. I had lost on Chicago v K.C. and gave back all my profits from week one, just playing it low key I punched in this: 5 Team Parlay # Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL - WEEK 2 (231) Washington Redskins +245 Mon@8:30p Competitor: (232) Philadelphia Eagles Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (414) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-105) Sun@1:00p Competitor: (413) St. Louis Rams Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (421) Carolina Panthers -4 (-105) Sun@4:15p Competitor: (422) Atlanta Falcons Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (425) Dallas Cowboys +3 Sun@8:15p Competitor: (426) Chicago Bears Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (427) Tennessee Titans +4½ Sep 24/07@8:30p Competitor: (428) New Orleans Saints Risk $10.00 to win $469.29 I also made a $20 3 team parlay yesterday so already up about $100 for the week. My question is, do you hedge this bet? And if so, how would you hedge it? My problem is that this is the one game I was most sure of when I made the bet. But with $469 worth of wiggle room, I am inclined to hedge. Someone talk me out of it. Sorry I couldn't get back to you earlier. So by now it's too late. You'll see by my picks that I like Ten in this game. But even that said, I would have laid a little bit off on the Saints and come out on the plus side. Many would advise against it, and like to lay it all out on the line. My thinking - I want to end every day, week, month, season w/ plus $$. At the same time, I don't want to give $ back that would be mine after a 60 minute game. So it depends on your confidence level w/ your play. Personally, I'd love to ensure a 5 time profit on that game. So ensure you win $50. That means you'd parlay Saints-4.5 to win $60. You would have had to buy down to get that line, but it probably wouldn't have cost too much (4.5 isn't a key number). If Ten covers, like I'm betting on them to do so, then you've won $469 and lost probably $70, that's still a $400 dollar profit. If TEN fails to cover, you've still won $50, 5 times your original bet. You could have done more if you were not as strong on TEN. Hope it comes in for you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steeltown Dre Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 Nice work Ratt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Menudo Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 I have a question to ask all of you fellow degenerates. Last Monday night I placed the following ridiculous 5 team parlay bet just for kicks. I had lost on Chicago v K.C. and gave back all my profits from week one, just playing it low key I punched in this: 5 Team Parlay # Football - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline NFL - WEEK 2 (231) Washington Redskins +245 Mon@8:30p Competitor: (232) Philadelphia Eagles Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (414) Tampa Bay Buccaneers -4 (-105) Sun@1:00p Competitor: (413) St. Louis Rams Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (421) Carolina Panthers -4 (-105) Sun@4:15p Competitor: (422) Atlanta Falcons Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (425) Dallas Cowboys +3 Sun@8:15p Competitor: (426) Chicago Bears Football - NFL Lines (Game) Pointspread NFL - WEEK 3 (427) Tennessee Titans +4½ Sep 24/07@8:30p Competitor: (428) New Orleans Saints Risk $10.00 to win $469.29 I also made a $20 3 team parlay yesterday so already up about $100 for the week. My question is, do you hedge this bet? And if so, how would you hedge it? My problem is that this is the one game I was most sure of when I made the bet. But with $469 worth of wiggle room, I am inclined to hedge. Someone talk me out of it. Good job !!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted September 25, 2007 Share Posted September 25, 2007 Good job !!! I hedged it. Still a nice hit though. The two parlays I hit were the only bets I made. (beside the hedge) That probably won't happen again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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