Talk me off the ledge

[CrimsonGhost]

So after some more homework and calculating a VBD system for my league I have some new information. Using the huddles projections, ADP, and my VBD system I have now come to the conclusion Aaron Rodgers is a must draft at pick 1. Rodgers VBD is second only to Foster (by 2 pts). However this comes without the risk of being a RB. The drop off after the top 4 Rbs is not as steep people keep claiming. In fact the drop off in QBs is much worse after the top 4 are gone. used top 15 qb,37 WR,38 RB, 12 TE to calculate my VBD

 

QB

1 Rodgers 225

5 Ryan 78

12 Freeman 25

 

Rb

1 Foster 227

5 McFadden 144

20 Doug Martin 69

 

All this leads me to once again jump on drafting Rodgers at pick 1. I think the value along with minimal risk make it the best option.

 

Side note WR is just not worth taking early this year.

 

WR

1 Megatron 145

4 Aj Green 84

18 Maclin 47

 

TE

1 Jimmy Graham 94

3 Hernandez 40

8 Finnley 15

[detlef]

I think the problem with using projected stats to rank players is that it fails to take into account the relative likelihood of the player hitting those stats. I typically look at those numbers as essentially a high-end estimation of what they're capable of assuming everything plays out well for them.

 

But the primariy difference (at least in my opinion) between Foster/Rice/McCoy and everyone else, is not just what their top end numbers can be, but how likely they are to achieve those. With those 3, something weird would have to happen for them to fail in that regard. Mostly, they'd have to get hurt, and you can never account for that.

 

Yes, all of them, by virtue of the position they play, are more likely to get hurt than Rodgers. But that is also true for the guys you'll be looking at when your other picks come along. Only, you'll also be looking at RBs with some real question marks as well. You'll be trading the chance to get a guy that something unforseen would have to happen to keep him from putting up very nice numbers for a guy who's not in camp (MJD), has a broken collar bone (Mathews), is a rookie on a bad team and just had his knee scoped (Richardson), is coming off ACL (Charles, AP), etc.

 

Meanwhile, the QB you'll be taking there, like Rodgers, is quite likely to stay healthy all year and, unlike those RBs I just listed, does not have massive questions that could, not only stand in the way of him being a very effective starter, but could, quite possibly, make him a total bust.

[HowboutthemCowboys]

FWIW...My first draft in a local league of guys that have been together for a while. They draw spots 5 mins before the draft and I drew 1. I have the 3 in a local next weekend and never ever draft a QB in the 1st so I figured what the hell..

 

1 Rodgers

2 Sproles

3 Cruz

 

most everyone had at least 2 rbs at this point, start 2 no flex

 

4 S Smith

5 A Hernandez

6 D Brown

7 Deangelo

9 J Rodgers

10 B Tate

 

 

I'm not thrilled with my RB's by any stretch of the imagination and was reminded quickly why I normally wait for QB

[reddogs2020]

Took A.Rod with the first pick. Team as drafted in signature. Took MJD and AP at 2/3 and Wallace/Dez at 4/5. Not unhappy with the results, assuming my question marks at RB are answered positively. FWIW, T.Gerhart and R.Jennings were taken immediately before I was about to take them as insurance.

[Bronco Billy]

JUMP!

[bpwallace49]

You are still on the ledge here??

[Ice1]

Factor in higher injury risk in other positions and I cant get takign Qb at 1 out of my mind. Talk me off this ledge,

 

 

For starters, You may want to rethink this statement as any justification.

 

BTW, nothing wrong with Rodgers being selected #1 in non PPr formats. You really need to draft well but no PPR really devalues WR's and many stud RB's.

 

No tier 1 QB will fall back to you in Non PPR leagues and at 6 points they shouldn't. I would bet 5 QB's would be taken before your 2nd pick. 1.1 in your format is a disadvantage. I would want 1.5-1.7 in that format.

 

PPR is very different but Rodgers is still a 1st round pick in this format these days.

Edited August 26, 2012 by Ice1

[Scooby's Hubby]

well, speak of the devil. I got the infamous 1st pick in a 10 team 6 pt passing league So, I took Foster, and then 4 QBs were taken in the first round, then another 3 before it got back to me. Luckily, Peyton and Eli were 2 of those 3 2nd round QBs taken and I got lucky to get Matt Ryan. So, I started Foster and Matt Ryan. If Ryan can sniff 40 TDs this year then I did the right thing.

[CrimsonGhost]

What round did you have to draft ryan though? If you take him in round 2 or 3 your risking all the value you gained by taking foster over rodgers in the first place. Seems like had you gone Rodgers you would limit this risk.

[Pip's Invitation]

I took Rodgers at 1.05 in my 12-team, PPR, all TDs 6 redraft today. Wasn't sure if I'd be able to recover at RB and WR, but in the next four rounds, Murray, Sproles, Colston, and S. Johnson fell to me. I think I'll be OK.

 

First time I'd taken a QB in the first in at least 10 years.

[theprofessor]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

[stevegrab]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

 

 

I'm not one of those experts who say that, and only play in a single league (12 teams with 5 man keepers). But isn't an auction draft vastly different from a regular redraft?

[detlef]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

 

I think you're confusing the notion of taking advantage of getting one of the three virtual sure things at RB with loading up on RBs just because that's what you're allegedly supposed to do in the early rounds.

 

The game has changed, but one thing hasn't.

 

If your league starts 1 QB and at least 2 RBs, you're going to have a harder time filling the RB position. There are 32 guys who touch the ball on nearly every offensive play and far less RBs who are truly cornerstones of an effective running game. Yet you need to start twice as many.

 

So, yes. The dude who goes RB/RB with his first pick and taking guys with serious question marks in doing so is a sheep and will likely not win. After the big 3, I'm all about looking at QB, or Calvin, before moving on to the next RBs.

 

But that doesn't diminish the value of the true studs at the position.

[flemingd]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

Almost no one here has blindly espoused that. Most have said that the correct thing is to do a dropoff analysis and if you determine that your 1st round RB + ___ round QB scores more, then that's what you should do.

 

But congratulations on agreeing with about 90% of us.

[Papajohn]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

 

I hate so-called experts! I prefer a so-called "professor" who makes little to no sense.

[Big Country]

I can't help but laugh at all the so-called experts that always seem to claim that you HAVE TO pick RB's early or you're DEAD and can't have success. Those days are over .... I have won 4 out of the last 6 years in my auction league by not selecting a RB until the top 30+ are off the board. Obviously, there are a lot of things that come into consideration, scoring rules, roster requirements, etc but for those that share the belief that "I have to get a 1 or 2 tier RB to win" - keep that thought and I'll continue to use your philosophy to expense my vacation every year.

 

 

How do you "select" an RB (or any player for that matter) in an auction league?

 

Also, are you saying you wait for the first 30 or so players to be awarded before looking at bidding on an RB, or you wait for the first 30 or so RBs to be awarded before you consider the position?

 

A little clarity on your statements would be helpful to the discussion.

[westendH00]

A top 3 QB has a damn good shot at 40 TD's. I just dont understand how you pass on that.

[Big Country]

A top 3 QB has a damn good shot at 40 TD's. I just dont understand how you pass on that.

 

 

History is not on your side. Sure, 3 hit that mark last year, but there were 0 in 2010 (top guy had 36) and 0 in 2009 (top guy had 34) and 0 in 2008 (top guy had 34).

 

Unless you think there was some complete fundamental shift in the NFL last year (other than say, the lockout) that we will continue seeing these all time high numbers on a regular basis, than yes, it is fairly easy to pass on that in relatively standard leagues where the projected drop off at other positions is much more severe in a much quicker time frame (in terms of draft availability)

[CrimsonGhost]

I think im now 95% committed to taking Foster at pick one. When i pick at the turn in round 2/3 I am probably taking another rb. Who would you take between Charles and Mathews? I like both for the value. I like Mathews more when he is playing but Charles is already on the field and has big potential as well.

Edited August 28, 2012 by CrimsonGhost