Grogansghost Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 (edited) (all of the ranks discussed are for a non-PPR scoring league. 10yards ru/rec = 1 pt. 6 pt TDs) In my auction league I'm debating whether or not to take AP. Obviously, there are lots of factors and an unknown price to consider. One of the things I wanted to look at was repeatability. Starting with 2002 I looked at how the end of season RB1 had fared the season prior to being #1 and then how he fared the year after being #1. In the table below the name of the player who finished #1 for that season is preceded by his finish the previous season and followed by how he finished the next season. e.g. from 03-06 Shaun Alexander went 6, 1, 1, 28. 2002 2 priest holmes 12003 1 priest holmes 122004 6 shaun alexander 12005 1 shaun alexander 282006 3 LT 12007 1 LT 172008 31 dwill 142009 11 chris johnson 52010 >50 arian 42011 11 ray Rice 62012 8 Adrian Peterson Starting in '03 if you had drafted the prior season's End Of Season #1, your RBs would've finished: 1, 12, 1, 28, 1, 17, 14, 5, 4, 6 for an average of 8.9. If you remove the worst and best result the average climbs to 7.5. Looking at the three guys who repeated - they were all top 6 the season before they became #1. They were the workhorse back on their teams. Two of the teams, if memory serves, were run heavy (KC/SEA), while SD also ran a lot but was more balanced. To me - AP's situation seems to mirror that of the first 3 backs - he has the pedigree and his team will lean on him early and often. In terms of talent and situation - I'd expect his floor to be above the average of 8.9. It's a small sample, but I was expecting even more volatility in how the end of season RB 1 finished the following season. (I would've looked at a bigger sample - but my interest in this stuff outstrips my skill/patience to gather and analyze it. Screw it - I'll decide based on mascot - who would win in a fight: a viking, a pirate, or an Indian chief?) Edited to change - EOS to end of season. sorry for the confusion. Edited July 23, 2013 by Grogansghost Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seahawks21 Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 With AD, it is all going to be based on health. If healthy, he is going to be a top back, period. If you're going to take a RB, you have to take him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecondString Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 (edited) Doesn't change anything for me, in my auctions he will be, as he always is....overpriced. If I could get him for under 35% or so of my budget, I'd probably give it a shot, but that won't happen in my locals. I'm sure I won't be an AP owner. But if you're in a league where you don't have at least a couple of owners who will go nuts to own him............ And if you end up with any one of the viking, the pirate, or the Indian chief, (maybe even a bison) that's a good start, I'd say. Edited July 22, 2013 by SecondString Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 22, 2013 Author Share Posted July 22, 2013 With AD, it is all going to be based on health. If healthy, he is going to be a top back, period. If you're going to take a RB, you have to take him. Completely agree with this. I'm not worried about his opportunities going away or him giving way to another back or the passing game. It would be interesting to see how many carries he had in college and the pros versus the other guys on the list -- but my sense is that he probably has about the same wear and tear on his body. I'm not worried about the knee as much because he made it through last year. He has a violent running style - but I'm not viewing him as a significantly bigger injury risk than the other RBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 22, 2013 Author Share Posted July 22, 2013 Doesn't change anything for me, in my auctions he will be, as he always is....overpriced. If I could get him for under 35% or so of my budget, I'd probably give it a shot, but that won't happen in my locals. I'm sure I won't be an AP owner. But if you're in a league where you don't have at least a couple of owners who will go nuts to own him............ And if you end up with any one of the viking, the pirate, or the Indian chief, (maybe even a bison) that's a good start, I'd say. I agree that it all comes down to price. On yahoo his AAV right now is $74 - or 37% of a 200 budget - right in line with what you said would be reasonable --- but I realize a lot of leagues will value him much higher. I think I have a decent shot of getting him at or below that price in my league, but we'll see. The league had to be dragged kicking and screaming into an auction format - so I have a sense they're going to be conservative/apprehensive at the start rather than crazy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Axe Elf Posted July 22, 2013 Share Posted July 22, 2013 (edited) "Regression to the mean (RTM) is a statistical phenomenon that can make natural variation in repeated data look like real change. It happens when unusually large or small measurements tend to be followed by measurements that are closer to the mean." http://ije.oxfordjournals.org/content/34/1/215.full Edited July 22, 2013 by Axe Elf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 What is EOS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 What is EOS? I imagine that it's Ease Of Schedule. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 That's what I was thinking, but there is no discussion of schedule (past or present) in the thread. Just wondering if I was missing something. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WashingtonD Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 That's what I was thinking, but there is no discussion of schedule (past or present) in the thread. Just wondering if I was missing something. EOS in this context seems to mean "End of Season" ie which RB was #1 at end of season. While I agree the duplication of #1 RB from year to year is unlikely, it doesn't however give you any real insight into WHO you should pick instead of ADP. Also just because the odds of ADP repeating are not great, you could argue, that the odds are still higher of him being #1 than any one else you would draft at RB in this spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
irish Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 EOS in this context seems to mean "End of Season" ie which RB was #1 at end of season. While I agree the duplication of #1 RB from year to year is unlikely, it doesn't however give you any real insight into WHO you should pick instead of ADP. Also just because the odds of ADP repeating are not great, you could argue, that the odds are still higher of him being #1 than any one else you would draft at RB in this spot. Good call on EOS. I also agree on ADP in regard to having a greater chance of finishing #1 and less risk than anyone else of being a flop. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BA Baracus Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Thanks D. I don't like to think in terms of "who will be the #1 guy". I prefer to think about who is most likely to finish in the top 5. Barring injury, there are really only two guys that I would feel confident in writing into my EOS top 5 and that's AP and Martin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowboyz1 Posted July 23, 2013 Share Posted July 23, 2013 Glad you did this, I was wondering the stats regarding the same thing as I may have the #1 pick in one of my drafts. I just don't know who I would pick ahead of him though. He is just as likely to outrun anyone else due to Opportunity, Ability and History. Possibly Arian Foster. Dougy in Tampa is no AP yet and I just don't see anyone else in his league. Murray could have a monster season but IR is just as possible. Good post though, thanks for the homework. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grogansghost Posted July 23, 2013 Author Share Posted July 23, 2013 EOS in this context seems to mean "End of Season" ie which RB was #1 at end of season. While I agree the duplication of #1 RB from year to year is unlikely, it doesn't however give you any real insight into WHO you should pick instead of ADP. Also just because the odds of ADP repeating are not great, you could argue, that the odds are still higher of him being #1 than any one else you would draft at RB in this spot. This might be too obvious - but in recent year's the #1RB overall has come from the previous season's top 11 or a bit out of left field. There were only two times that the #1 at the end of season came from beyond the previous season's top 11: 2008 Deangelo Williams (finished 31st in 2007) 2010 Arian Foster (finished 63rd in 2009) Maybe most people already knew that, but until I actually looked at the numbers, I thought there might have been more RB2s from the previous season making the jump all the way to the #1RB overall. I also looked at how the prior season's #1 RB and the prior season's 2-10 finished in general from 2002-2012. NOTE: the 2-10 group suffers in terms of becoming the #1 in this scenario, because every time a 2-10 reaches #1, 8 of them still miss. If you could guarantee that you picked the best RB 2-10 every year during the span you would've had the #1 overall 36% of the time. RB 1 finished as: #1 27% 2-5 18% 6-10 18% 11-24 27% 25-36 9% >36 0% RB 2-10 finished as: #1 4% 2-5 19% 6-10 13% 11-24 36% 25-36 11% >36 16% Breaking those numbers down a bit: RB1 / RB 2-10 top 10 finish: 63% / 36% RB2 or better: 90% / 72% The higher ceiling and floor come at a premium. Average auction value on Yahoo for the #1 = $74 Average of the AAV's on Yahoo for the 2-10: $53 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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