dfv87 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I have been here for many years (since 2001 I think) and only post occasionally, but one of my favorite conversations each fall is who people are NOT drafting and why... I will start, I am not drafting RB L Bell Pit under almost ANY circumstances unless I am in the 15-16th round or later and I have filled my K and DEF already. Reasons Guy is a top 10 RB talent (Top 5 if he was playing all 16 games each season) but if he is not playing... reason #1 is weeks 1-4 Guy missed a drug test "knowingly" then lied about knowing to the press initially... yada yada. Reason #2 guy is sketchy with the truth at best... Liars are not someone to support. Guy is obviously having issues with drugs... Reason #3 DON'T TRUST DRUG USERS! this is a life lesson learned the hard way by me in real life, just support them as best you can but you cannot trust them. Drug use or lifestyle or whatever is more important to him than Football teammates that count on him to win games or he would get help... This cannot go well with teammates over the long haul. Reason #4 teammates must be getting tired of this or will be by week 4... OK that is my top 10 guy that is a NO GO for me, who else has somebody they are no go... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valhalla Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I will not draft any packers. They're filthy. I will not draft any Seahawks RB. I think the situation is going to be a mess for the foreseeable future (fantasy wise..) I won't draft Mike Evans at his current ADP. His schedule is not favorable for where he's going. Which leads me to another Buc...Doug Martin. His lack of TD's and having Sims creeping into his carries doesn't warrant his ADP for me. I know his yards are sexy, yadda yadda yadda, but I'd prefer someone who can sneak in 6 to 8 TD's there. I also won't draft any offensive positions from the Broncos at this point. I don't have one iota of faith in CJ Anderson. I don't like the ADP of Thomas nor Sanders for the questionable QB situation they have. They're not a flashy, throwing team because of who their identity is. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 (edited) Give me your tired, your poor, Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free, The wretched refuse of your teeming shore. Send these, the homeless, tempest-tossed, to me: I lift my lamp beside the golden door. I'll draft drug addicts, wife-beaters, racists, homophobes, cheaters (looking at you Tom Brady), murderers, husbands of supermodels (looking at you, Tom Brady), roid-mongers and even Donald Trump supporters (looking at you, Tom Brady). There is a bit of added risk for sure. Le'Veon probably has a 5% chance of getting another suspension during this season. I will adjust accordingly. His risk of recidivism knocks him from number 10 on my board to number 11 on my board (still a first-rounder). Edited August 16, 2016 by michaelredd9 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I will not draft any packers. They're filthy. I will not draft any Seahawks RB. I think the situation is going to be a mess for the foreseeable future (fantasy wise..) I won't draft Mike Evans at his current ADP. His schedule is not favorable for where he's going. Which leads me to another Buc...Doug Martin. His lack of TD's and having Sims creeping into his carries doesn't warrant his ADP for me. I know his yards are sexy, yadda yadda yadda, but I'd prefer someone who can sneak in 6 to 8 TD's there. I also won't draft any offensive positions from the Broncos at this point. I don't have one iota of faith in CJ Anderson. I don't like the ADP of Thomas nor Sanders for the questionable QB situation they have. They're not a flashy, throwing team because of who their identity is. i still am having a hard time fathoming this whole "mike evans schedule too tough for me to draft him high" thing i keep hearing here listen im not gonna sit here and tell you i guarantee evans is gonna catch 85/1300/12 tds but a tough fantasy schedule, for a receiver, is not the same as it is for a rb......you arent drafting mike evans for his real life team to win football games.....you are drafting him to produce i actually had jax slate last year, against the pass, rated slighly tougher than tampas this year....not by much.....but still enough to say, by my formula, tampas is really no worse or more daunting..id be curious to see what DMD and the huddle had jax's schedule ranked or rated as last year..... .......this is passing league with rules geared towards helping receivers and passing games.....were not drafting evans for tampa bays record.......if they are trailing its probably beneficial to evans and company....what it boils down to is do you believe that the qb and offense as a whole is capable enough of coming through provided adequate opportunity.....i dont know if many believed in bortles or jax last year...but robinson was beastly and prob won leagues for alot of people....i realize robinson last year came with a different price tag than what evans does this year....but evans current price tag isnt just what it is for NO REASON......people believe the talent and opportunity are there....a bet on evans isnt a bet on tampa winning 10 games...keep that in mind 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 i still am having a hard time fathoming this whole "mike evans schedule too tough for me to draft him high" thing i keep hearing here listen im not gonna sit here and tell you i guarantee evans is gonna catch 85/1300/12 tds but a tough fantasy schedule, for a receiver, is not the same as it is for a rb......you arent drafting mike evans for his real life team to win football games.....you are drafting him to produce I've never understood the emphasis some prognosticators put on strength of schedule. I think it is missing the forest for the trees. Half of the defenses that look like they'll be good, will be bad. Half of the defenses that look like they'll be bad, will be good. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 I've never understood the emphasis some prognosticators put on strength of schedule. I think it is missing the forest for the trees. Half of the defenses that look like they'll be good, will be bad. Half of the defenses that look like they'll be bad, will be good. i tend to agree...although ill say...i do put some stock into it when drafting rbs......and it hasnt really done me wrong in those cases but like you said...usually the formulas are based on the previous years numbers....and you can just never really predict defenses....every year a defense comes out of nowhere to be a fantasy scorer or a stout overall defense .....and the same goes the other way around......so yeah....especially in regards to the passing game i pay little to no attention to strength of schedule analysis so im not sure why people are so scared to death of evans.....people think evans ADP just appeared out of thin air and nobody is taking anything into consideration......hes where he is for a reason.....you are within your rights to disagree...but please dont tell me its because of schedule Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 i tend to agree...although ill say...i do put some stock into it when drafting rbs......and it hasnt really done me wrong in those cases but like you said...usually the formulas are based on the previous years numbers....and you can just never really predict defenses....every year a defense comes out of nowhere to be a fantasy scorer or a stout overall defense .....and the same goes the other way around......so yeah....especially in regards to the passing game i pay little to no attention to strength of schedule analysis so im not sure why people are so scared to death of evans.....people think evans ADP just appeared out of thin air and nobody is taking anything into consideration......hes where he is for a reason.....you are within your rights to disagree...but please dont tell me its because of schedule Evans had the 18th highest overall adp last year. He ended up being the 23rd highest scoring wide receiver. And his underachievement had more to do with his lack of concentration or lack of effort than it had to do with Winston or the rest of the offense. That scares me. But he does have a lot of talent and the Bucs' offense is sure to improve. But I'll still be staying away. Strength of schedule has no bearing on my decision. I would like to see a scientific study done of what strength of schedule was predicted to be and what it actually ended up being. My guess is that there is almost no correlation. There might be a couple of exceptions since teams like Seattle or Denver will likely have good defenses. But having 2 or 3 predictably tough games versus 1 predictably tough game doesn't have much overall effect. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Evans had the 18th highest overall adp last year. He ended up being the 23rd highest scoring wide receiver. And his underachievement had more to do with his lack of concentration or lack of effort than it had to do with Winston or the rest of the offense. That scares me. But he does have a lot of talent and the Bucs' offense is sure to improve. But I'll still be staying away. Strength of schedule has no bearing on my decision. I would like to see a scientific study done of what strength of schedule was predicted to be and what it actually ended up being. My guess is that there is almost no correlation. There might be a couple of exceptions since teams like Seattle or Denver will likely have good defenses. But having 2 or 3 predictably tough games versus 1 predictably tough game doesn't have much overall effect. def agree about SOS i was reading an article the other day about evans....it mentioned how 5 drops came in one game where he still caught 8 passes...and the writer suggested he might have been fatigued...noting how it can be taxing running alot of full speed routes in a game even though most of us wouldnt realize it...he had 17 targets in that game....against the giants i think....then went 5 straight games without a drop before dropping 3 more in a game....think i also read something where they say evans has shed about 15 lbs or so ...... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMD Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 i still am having a hard time fathoming this whole "mike evans schedule too tough for me to draft him high" thing i keep hearing here listen im not gonna sit here and tell you i guarantee evans is gonna catch 85/1300/12 tds but a tough fantasy schedule, for a receiver, is not the same as it is for a rb......you arent drafting mike evans for his real life team to win football games.....you are drafting him to produce i actually had jax slate last year, against the pass, rated slighly tougher than tampas this year....not by much.....but still enough to say, by my formula, tampas is really no worse or more daunting..id be curious to see what DMD and the huddle had jax's schedule ranked or rated as last year..... .......this is passing league with rules geared towards helping receivers and passing games.....were not drafting evans for tampa bays record.......if they are trailing its probably beneficial to evans and company....what it boils down to is do you believe that the qb and offense as a whole is capable enough of coming through provided adequate opportunity.....i dont know if many believed in bortles or jax last year...but robinson was beastly and prob won leagues for alot of people....i realize robinson last year came with a different price tag than what evans does this year....but evans current price tag isnt just what it is for NO REASON......people believe the talent and opportunity are there....a bet on evans isnt a bet on tampa winning 10 games...keep that in mind JAX tied for the 6th best SOS for QBs and RBs last year. The Strength of schedule should only be considered for the extreme teams on either end. And as it states, the least predictable are WRs and primary WR tend to do well regardless. A tough SOS would have more effect on secondary receivers. And there are teams that are better than their schedule - the Pats usually have a terrible SOS and yet Brady does well. SOS is most useful for RBs. Then QBs and lastly WR. And defenses are much more predictable early in the season than later. I do consider SOS when I rank and project. The schedule has some impact on every team, more on some than others. And it is only one of many considerations about a player. If the schedule for TB is not your concern, then you'll probably get them a little cheaper and that is always good. It will be interesting to see. I am not convinced that Winston/Evans are good enough to be better than any schedule personally but I'd take them if they were available where I see their value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CowboysDiehard Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Fat Eddy Lacy 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marcheese Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Guy's I'm avoiding for various reasons: Cam Newton Drew Brees Le'Veon Bell Devonta Freeman Eddie Lacy Thomas Rawls DeMarco Murray Demaryius THomas Kelvin Benjamin Jordan Matthews Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 If the schedule for TB is not your concern, then you'll probably get them a little cheaper and that is always good. It will be interesting to see. I am not convinced that Winston/Evans are good enough to be better than any schedule personally but I'd take them if they were available where I see their value. Tampa does play New Orleans week 14, Dallas week 15, and New Orleans week 16. That is a sweet fantasy playoff schedule for Evans. And personally, I think fantasy playoff SOS is more important than fantasy regular season SOS. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valhalla Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 Tampa does play New Orleans week 14, Dallas week 15, and New Orleans week 16. That is a sweet fantasy playoff schedule for Evans. And personally, I think fantasy playoff SOS is more important than fantasy regular season SOS. Great point. Those are good match ups (maybe, probably..most likely) But I think something could be said about the other weeks contributing to getting there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jkraft896 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 The thing with evaluating players based on strength of schedule is we have no idea what most teams will look like this year. The NFL is simply too fluid. For example, who thought that the Panthers were going to go 15-1 and be a virtual nightmare for offensive players early in the year or the 49ers and the Ravens, notoriously tough defenses, would be two of the most attractive match ups of the season. I am sure you can find many examples just like this. Too many teams in the NFL will not resemble the team we saw a year ago. Therefore, I have never bought into the strength of schedule belief. It is simply too random to dictate my season long decisions. That being said, guys I am staying away from... David Johnson - maybe its the last name, maybe its the number of games he started last season. Bottom line, he reminds me too much of Larry Johnson Devonta Freeman - After the Falcons cooled off, he really wasn't that good. Too touchdown dependent and I think the Falcons continue to get worse. A better version of Marion Barber Allen Robinson - The Jags will be a better team therefore they won't be chucking the ball around like they did last season. I really like him as a player, but just isn't worth the middle 2nd round pick imo. Cam Newton - He is going too high. Too many good quarterbacks. Demarco Murray - Derrick Henry is a better running back and I am beginning to think he was more a product of the Cowboy line than his actual skill. Brandon Marshall - Something just always seemed too good to be true in New York last season. Fitz won't be as good, which means Marshall won't be either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelredd9 Posted August 16, 2016 Share Posted August 16, 2016 But I think something could be said about the other weeks contributing to getting there. I tend to error on the side of building for the playoffs at the expense of the regular season. I draft suspended players and trade for injured players. It has definitely caused me to miss the playoffs at times. I'll be the first to admit my philosophy might be misguided. Maybe making the playoffs is more important than creating a juggernaut team. Anything can happen if you make the playoffs. But it does seem that juggernaut teams win the playoffs more than the teams that limp into the playoffs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wpob Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 No one. I have players I prefer NOT to draft, but if the value is there, I'll take them. I try to avoid drafting Cowboys as a Giants fan because I hate rooting for them. However, if the value is right, I'll grab Dez. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Based on their typical ADP, here are ten guys I'll never draft: Le'Veon Bell (just not worth losing wks 1-4 and the risk of more) Alshon Jeffery (maybe it's just me, but I feel like this dude is constantly battling soft tissue injuries) Philip Rivers (because I never have and never will own him, and it has nothing to do with his fantasy value) Matt Forte (maybe he's still got it, but I get the feeling that the people who draft Forte are going to be really sick of Bilal Powell by week 6 or so) Michael Thomas (too many mouths to feed, and he's a rookie to boot) Julian Edelman (how effective will he be early on if he's still a little dinged and doesn't have Brady? His ADP looks more like it should if he was healthy and Brady wasn't suspended IMO) Gary Barnidge (last year was a fluke IMO) Tyler Eifert (Someone else can wait for him to get healthy, then hope he shakes off the rust - too TD dependent too which scares me) Frank Gore (Even at his low ADP, I just can't believe he's going to do much at his age and with that offensive line) Duke Johnson (because the hype train is out of control on him... yet it doesn't appear Isaiah Crowell is going anywhere. Not sure I understand why he'd going as early as he is) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 The thing with evaluating players based on strength of schedule is we have no idea what most teams will look like this year. The NFL is simply too fluid. For example, who thought that the Panthers were going to go 15-1 and be a virtual nightmare for offensive players early in the year or the 49ers and the Ravens, notoriously tough defenses, would be two of the most attractive match ups of the season. I am sure you can find many examples just like this. Too many teams in the NFL will not resemble the team we saw a year ago. Therefore, I have never bought into the strength of schedule belief. It is simply too random to dictate my season long decisions. That being said, guys I am staying away from... David Johnson - maybe its the last name, maybe its the number of games he started last season. Bottom line, he reminds me too much of Larry Johnson Devonta Freeman - After the Falcons cooled off, he really wasn't that good. Too touchdown dependent and I think the Falcons continue to get worse. A better version of Marion Barber Allen Robinson - The Jags will be a better team therefore they won't be chucking the ball around like they did last season. I really like him as a player, but just isn't worth the middle 2nd round pick imo. Cam Newton - He is going too high. Too many good quarterbacks. Demarco Murray - Derrick Henry is a better running back and I am beginning to think he was more a product of the Cowboy line than his actual skill. Brandon Marshall - Something just always seemed too good to be true in New York last season. Fitz won't be as good, which means Marshall won't be either. I agree with all of this except Marshall. I don't think he has quite the same numbers as last year, but you won't regret drafting him. The bromance is strong with him and Fitz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdko Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Philip Rivers (because I never have and never will own him, and it has nothing to do with his fantasy value) Why the Rivers hate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scooby's Hubby Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 The list of late RB1's is ripe for this conversation ... I am surprised DeMarco Murray is not here, LoL. I know he burned many last year. Murray is one of those late RB1s you can wait on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
loaf Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 I'm not drafting DeMarco Murray or LeSean Mccoy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MTSuper7 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Why the Rivers hate? In short, I'm a Broncos fan first. I can't want him to succeed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lukester2181 Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Guy's I'm avoiding for various reasons: Cam Newton Drew Brees Le'Veon Bell Devonta Freeman Eddie Lacy Thomas Rawls DeMarco Murray Demaryius THomas Kelvin Benjamin Jordan Matthews Reasons for not drafting these guys?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forever in debt to mo lewis Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 JAX tied for the 6th best SOS for QBs and RBs last year. The Strength of schedule should only be considered for the extreme teams on either end. And as it states, the least predictable are WRs and primary WR tend to do well regardless. A tough SOS would have more effect on secondary receivers. And there are teams that are better than their schedule - the Pats usually have a terrible SOS and yet Brady does well. SOS is most useful for RBs. Then QBs and lastly WR. And defenses are much more predictable early in the season than later. I do consider SOS when I rank and project. The schedule has some impact on every team, more on some than others. And it is only one of many considerations about a player. If the schedule for TB is not your concern, then you'll probably get them a little cheaper and that is always good. It will be interesting to see. I am not convinced that Winston/Evans are good enough to be better than any schedule personally but I'd take them if they were available where I see their value. good stuff DMD agree...SOS is most useful for rbs like I said...I have tampas pass schedule actually right around the the identical grade I had for jax's last year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zooty Posted August 17, 2016 Share Posted August 17, 2016 Reasons for not drafting these guys?? Probably the same that I have for some of these guys some are over-valued- Lacy, Cam Some are over-hyped- K. Benjamin, Rawls Some I think will be a bust- D. Freeman, D. Thomas I also have guys who I think are injury risks I never say I won't draft a guy except in a rare cases. I just usually drop them far enough down my rankings that someone else is bound to take them before I do. I would take Lacy in the 6th. I'm willing to bet in every draft I do, he will be gone by then, drafted by some poor sucker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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