Week 11 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Gdawg]

While I despise Billick, I've already made the play (at a "system play" level), and now have to look at either putting more on Bal or laying it off.

 

The Ravens at home are 3-1, beating Ari, NYJ, STL. None are that great. And losing to Cin. Looking closer at that Cin game, it was a game where Bal committed 6 turnovers and Cin committed none. Cin had the ball 7 times in Bal's red zone and scored 0 TDs. They had the ball 3 times in "goal to goal" situations and scored 0 TDs. The Bengals ran the ball 34 times for 70 yards. That's 2 yards per carry.

 

If you really look at it, Cle has only beat StL on the road, and lost to Oak, NE and Pit. The loss at Oak was the 3rd game of the year, so that was a while ago, but the fact still remains, they have only beat StL on the road.

 

If Bal can cut down on it's offensive miscues and get their CBs healthy, I can see them holding Cle to below their avg. points.

 

Remember, the line was Bal -4 and what happened last week. Cle got the equivalent of 2 special teams TDs (1 was a 100 yd TD and 1 was returned to the Pit 3 yard line which was then converted to a TD). On offense against the Steelers last week, they put up 14 points (again, not considering that 1 TD they scored off the Pit 3) and 0 points after halftime. They are explosive, but they can be stopped by a good D.

 

I see a Cle team who was leading at the half (not only to Pit), but IN Pit by a score of 21-9. They were on top of the world. Pit went on to outscore them 22-7 in the second half, w/ that 1 TD for Cle being on special teams. They flew back to Cle a team w/ a broken heart. Now they have to go back on the road against another physical team that will beat them up.

 

Bal already was swept by Cin. They are 0-1 against both Pit and Cle. They won't be able to shoot for a split w/ Pit until Week 17. Mentally, they have to be in this game. Their next games include a trip to SD next week, then home games against NE and Indy. This is Bal's best shot to get a win over the next month. If they lose this game, their season is toast. It already is, more or less, but they could at least save some face.

 

Lastly, one stat for you that does not have a large sample size, but I can't do anything about it. Here's the situation:

 

Team A lost on the road their prior game, despite leading at the half, and is now a road favs the following week.

Team B is facing Team A, and Team B is at home and coming off a loss.

 

Team A is 6-15 ATS since 1989, including 0-5 since 2002.

 

If Team B was at home when they lost the prior week, the road fav (Team A) is 1-5 ATS.

 

These trends point to the situation Cle finds themself in this week. While Cle may win going away (anything is possible), I think in this situation w/ this line, the play is either Bal or nothing. Just my opinion. Of course, I like home dogs to begin with...

 

 

Dre, this is a great post. We'll see if you and I are correct Sunday, but I'd have to say that with regard to history BAL is the call.

 

Should have won that PIT call last week, that one still bugs me. It was the right call.

Edited November 16, 2007 by Gdawg

[CowboysDiehard]

After reading this thread...I'm suddenly thirsty for the Grape Kool-Aid!!! Gonna go get me a glass!

[Gdawg]

3-1 nice Gdawg.......I'm liking yours and Dres take on the Ravens. I'm definitely also liking the Under in this game. Ray Ray will be out in full force.

 

On another note, doesn't Miami +10 look like a nice play?

 

 

Wildcat I like the Detroit pick but why do you think SF will do any better than theyve been doing? I don't know maybe Im missing something, but it looks like STL is coming around with Sjax running the ball and Bulger/Holt/Bennett playing pretty good.

 

The momentum is really on STL's side, especially after the massive loss SF had the other night......and now with Dilfer taking the snaps......just doesnt look like a good play IMO.

 

I would of thought after Coach Nolan's father's death, they'd come out inspired.....instead they looked horrible.

 

I think I'd steer clear of MIA this week. With regard to public perception, PHI is riding high; were Lemon the starter, I'd think about going with them. However, since Beck is starting, a rookie on the road, stay away. Sure, he could shock the world, but I think the odds are against him. A VERY slight lean with MIA, but not enough of a lean for me to risk my dearly won money.

 

With regard to SF, if you go back and read what Dre had to say about spreads/public perception, SF offers a lot of value. Again, as Dre said, a lot of betting is about value. Sure it doesn't always work out (witness me taking Oregon this eve after they slipped three points ) but it does work out more often than not. If you want to make a play on this game, I'd go with SF.

[Gdawg]

After reading this thread...I'm suddenly thirsty for the Grape Kool-Aid!!! Gonna go get me a glass!

 

Throw some vodka in that kool-aid and I'm your huckleberry.

[Steeltown Dre]

Posting it as I see it:

 

Confidential Kick Off has an 11* on Dallas. They supposedly are undefeated on 11*s for 2 NFL seasons. I posted their 11* on Buffalo last weekend which pushed.

[Gdawg]

Posting it as I see it:

 

Confidential Kick Off has an 11* on Dallas. They supposedly are undefeated on 11*s for 2 NFL seasons. I posted their 11* on Buffalo last weekend which pushed.

 

DAL is -10.5 at Bookmaker right now, where do you have it Dre?

 

A couple unfortunate developments yesterday. It looks like Alex Smith will not play this week. Even though he's been awful, not sure I'm too crazy about laying much on a team captained by Trent Dilfer

 

Also looks like Heap is out, as is D. Williams. Still awaiting word on McAlister. On the CLE side however, it sounds like the LB corps is pretty banged up too, keeping an eye on the injury report.

[wildcat2334]

With regard to SF, if you go back and read what Dre had to say about spreads/public perception, SF offers a lot of value. Again, as Dre said, a lot of betting is about value. Sure it doesn't always work out (witness me taking Oregon this eve after they slipped three points ) but it does work out more often than not. If you want to make a play on this game, I'd go with SF.

 

 

Yeah - that is my thinking, line value- I mean STL a road favorite? really?

 

We all know in the NFL the truth is in the middle somewhere- SF isn't as bad as they looked last week, and STL isn't as good as they looked in NO.

 

I think SF as a home dog is a solid play, and while Dilfer inspires no confidence, he is probably an upgrade over Smith right now.

[Steeltown Dre]

Another game I've been looking at is Ari/Cin

 

Ari is coming off a home win over Det and Cin is coming off a road win against rival Bal. Cin is 3-6 and in need of another "feel good" win. Ari is 4-5 and within 1 game of .500.

 

The only game that Ari has not covered as a dog this year was 2 weeks ago in TB. A few things:

 

#1, TB is a hard place to play at in the first place

#2, TB's passing D ranks: #3 in yds/gm, #5 in yds/att, #9 in Comp. %, #2 in pass TD allowed

 

Cin is not as tough a place to play for a road team, and let's look at Cin's passing D compared to that of TB:

 

Cin ranks: #28 in yds/gm, #28 in yds/att, #31 in Comp %, #31 in pass TD allowed

 

Let's see how Cin has done as a fav this year: they were only favored at home 2 times. First to a lowly Bal team which they covered, 2nd to an even lowlier Jets team, which they covered. Neither win was by a big margin, 1 TD in both cases. But they allowed 20 pts to a McNair lead Bal offense and 31 to the inept Jets offense.

 

I can see why Cin should be favored by 3 in this situation. However, here are a few trends for you:

 

Cin has been on the road the past 2 weeks, and now is back at home for 2 games. They won as a dog on the road last week, and are now favored at home. However, they are 3 games below .500.

 

Teams in their situation (parameters defined above), have gone 1-8 ATS since 89. And just 2-7 SU. Since 2002, they have gone 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU. These teams have failed to cover by almost 12 points each game.

 

If you factor only teams w/ below .500 records, and not restrict it to "3 games below .500", they have gone 15-27 ATS since 89. Including 3-10 since 2002. And in fact, they actually have gone 4-9 SU in those games since 2002.

 

If we look at a team like Ari, who won last week and is now 1 game within .500, and are facing a team who is at home following an upset win in its 2nd road game in a row, the visitor (Ari) has gone 6-3 ATS, including 2-1 SU and ATS since 2002.

 

Suprisingly enough, Ari is the 3rd best pass D that Cin has faced this year. They have put up just 13 points on NE and Pit, who are ranked higher than Ari. All other passing defenses Cin has faced were worse than Ari.

 

Ari has already faced Pit and Det, both who have better yds/att than Cin's passing O does. Granted, both games were at home, but Ari beat both of them.

 

More will have to be learned about Ari's injury situation, but right now, I am liking Ari very much this week. Thoughts?

[Gdawg]

Interesting Dre, very interesting. I did not realize that AZ had only failed to cover once as a Dog. The trends you've posted make for real food for thought.

 

I sort of brushed this game off originally, but now I think it calls for a closer look.

[Gdawg]

Here's what I've got so far:

 

Sticking with BAL +3

 

SF +3

 

Dre, also like your calls on AZ and IND, I'm playing them.

 

I also like one of the Unders you mentioned earlier this week, NO/HOU, going with it.

 

Be back in the morning, looking forward to everyone's plays. I'm sure I'll have a few more too

Edited November 18, 2007 by Gdawg

[rattsass]

Cleveland -3

Detroit +3

Arizona +3.5

Dallas -11

 

This is what I am playing so far. I'm already regretting the Dallas bet because Adam Schefter predicted a Redskins victory.

[whomper]

I am liking Phi/Mia under 40.5..Bad weather and the possibility of no Westbrook + a new QB for Miami

[Gdawg]

Cleveland -3

Detroit +3

Arizona +3.5

Dallas -11

 

This is what I am playing so far. I'm already regretting the Dallas bet because Adam Schefter predicted a Redskins victory.

 

DET looks good too Rat, I think I mght play it too. Going to look at a few more things this morning.

 

Sorry to hear Schefter doomed us on Dallas

[whomper]

I also like the Bears Team total over 16

[Gdawg]

LANG:

 

SUNDAY

30 DIME

Oakland Raiders

 

25 DIME

Saints/Texans OVER

 

15 DIME

Packers

Cowboys

Tampa Bay

 

10 DIME

Lions

Jets

Colts

 

Free Pick - Patriots -

[rattsass]

I am liking Phi/Mia under 40.5..Bad weather and the possibility of no Westbrook + a new QB for Miami

Be careful in that kind of thinking. Fresh QBs have a way of yielding defensive points too. The sword cuts both ways. The Eagles will have some blitzes dialed up today for sure.

[whomper]

Be careful in that kind of thinking. Fresh QBs have a way of yielding defensive points too. The sword cuts both ways. The Eagles will have some blitzes dialed up today for sure.

 

 

I agree and have thought of that..The flip side is trying to take the game out of his hands and keep it on the ground a little..Tick Tick Tick Tick

[Gdawg]

Ben Burns

 

RAVENS (-3 or better)

 

I'm taking the points with BALTIMORE. Who would have thought that the Browns ever would have been favored at Baltimore? The Ravens, who were -3.5 road favorites at Cleveland in September, were whopping -12.5 favorites the last time they hosted the Browns. The Ravens won that game by double-digits, improving to 4-0 the last four times they hosted the Browns, all four victories coming by double-digits. Despite this season's struggles, the Ravens remain a respectable 3-1 at home, allowing an average of just 15 points per game. Thats roughly half of what the Browns' allow (29.3) per week. Look for another strong game by the defense and for Boller to spark the offense, as the Ravens avenge the earlier loss and improve to 5-0 the last five meetings here.

[whomper]

I Officially put in

 

1.The Bears over 16

2. Mia/Phi Under 40.5

 

3. # team tease

Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens 11/18/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Total Points UNDER 53½ for Game

Select #2 : NFL Football for Game

Pittsburgh Steelers 11/18/2007 4:05:01 PM - (EST)

Spread +½ for Game

Select #3 : NFL Football for Game

Miami Dolphins/Philadelphia Eagles 11/18/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Total Points UNDER 50½ for Game

[rattsass]

I Officially put in

 

1.The Bears over 16

2. Mia/Phi Under 40.5

 

3. # team tease

Cleveland Browns/Baltimore Ravens 11/18/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Total Points UNDER 53½ for Game

Select #2 : NFL Football for Game

Pittsburgh Steelers 11/18/2007 4:05:01 PM - (EST)

Spread +½ for Game

Select #3 : NFL Football for Game

Miami Dolphins/Philadelphia Eagles 11/18/2007 1:00:01 PM - (EST)

Total Points UNDER 50½ for Game

 

I like that teaser. I added a ten point teaser as well, and I am going pretty large on this one: Phil -, Green Bay-, Dallas -1.

[Gdawg]

I like that teaser. I added a ten point teaser as well, and I am going pretty large on this one: Phil -, Green Bay-, Dallas -1.

 

I like it Rat!

[Steeltown Dre]

I really am liking most of my system plays, which are in post 2. ATS, they are:

 

Ind

Min

Hou

GB

SF

Bal

Pit

Atl

Ten

Det

 

However, I am going to do a few things:

 

I've added Dal and Ari,

I've added plays on top of Bal, Hou

And I've reversed and added a play on TB

I have Det ML as a system play, but am contemplating laying it off on NYG -2.5

I reversed one total and took Oak/Min Under early in the week

 

I didn't add more onto SF as of right now, but I still like them. A lot of services have NYJ over Pit. I don't really love Pit in this spot, but have not laid it off yet, and may not lay it off, I'm still undecided on that one.

 

So, right now my "personal plays" on top of system plays are:

 

Favs: Dal, Hou, TB

Dogs: Bal, Ari

Totals: Oak/Min Under 36.5

[Steeltown Dre]

From another site: Top plays for various services

 

Cto's 11*_________________________________________Dallas

Northcoast Infomercial___Totals POW__________________Jets under 40.5

Mti__________________ 5* newsletter play_____________jets

Marc Lawrence ___PERFECT SYSTEM CLUB______________ Jets

Ferringo______________ 4-UNIT PLAY_________________Jacksonville -3

Dr Robert_____________ Best Bet UNDER______________ **UNDER –Indy-KC

Ace Ace / Allen Eastman____$3500.00 _________________DET under 49-105

Doc's_______________ 4 Unit Play_____________________NJY +9 ½

VICTOR KINGS NFL O/U PICKS from HIS O/U TIPSHEET___3* Saints-Texan's Over The Total

Teddy Covers_________ NFL 20* Big Ticket______________ Arizona +3

Wunderdogsports________4 units______________________TB-Ata Under 35.5

Wunderdogsports________4 units______________________N.O Houst Under 48

Wunderdogsports________4 units______________________S.F. +3

Joyce Sterling__________ UNDERDOG Game of the Week___ Baltimore +3

pro source_____________ NFC South GOM_______________Ata + 3.5

pro source_____________ AFC Underdog GOM____________NYJ +10

The Rock Box__ _________Play of the Week_____________ Jacksonville -3

The Rock Box__ _________ Trap Game of the Week________ Houston -1

The Rock Box__ _________ Over/Under Play of the Week____New England/Buffalo Under 46.5

Pointwise newsletter_______________5*_________________Det

Pointwise newsletter________________5*________________Mia

Pointwise Redsheet______ Rating:88_____________________Dallas 34 Washington 16

Selective_______________ 5 units______________________Chargers/Jaguars Under 40.5

Wild Bill's_______________ __3 units___________________Saints pk

ASA_____________5* NFL Game of the Month_____________Over 40.5 San Diego @ Jacksonville

Stephen Nover_______NFL Side double-dime bet___________SDC 3.0 (-110)

Mel Stewart_____LATE NFC INTERNET GAME OF THE YEAR___ DALLAS – 11

Pointwise Phones_________ 4*_________________________Dallas

red zone________ total play of year_____________________ New Orleans-Texans OVER 48

[Steeltown Dre]

more...

 

Vegas Hotsheet______________________________________Oakland +5.5

MTi_________________SIDE Play of the Week-5-Star______ NY JETS +10

MTi_________________Totals Play of the Week__4-Star____Cleveland at Baltimore UNDER 43’

MTi_________________OU Trend of the Week_____________OVER Bengals-Cardinals

Doc Sports___________ 4 Unit Play_____________________New York +9 ½

VICTOR KINGS O/U TIPSHEET _________ 3*______________Saints-Texan's Over

Sports Reporter___________Best Bet____________________Dallas

Sports Reporter___________Best Bet____________________St Louis

Tim Trushel_______________ 20*______________________over seattle – Chicago

Pointwise Phones____________4*______________________Dallas

Brandon Lang____________30 DIME____________________Oakland Raiders

Trey Johnson___________100% NFL Total of the Month_____San Diego vs Jacksonville OVER

Ethan Law__NFL Side triple-dime NFL GAME OF THE YEAR____BAL 3.0

Marco D'Angelo_____7* NFL HIGH ROLLER RELEASE________BAL 3.0

Stan Sharp___NFL UNDERDOG BIG BET OF THE MONTH____DET 2.5

[Mojo Rising]

Im feeling this week we'll be a good week for everyone.

 

Just put in:

 

Ravens +2.5

Browns/Ravens under 43.5

Cardinals/Bengals over 48

Lions +2.5

Cowboys -11

Miami/Eagles under 40.5

Colts -14.5

Buccaneers -3

Saints/Texans over 48.5

 

Last week I went 8-2, hopefully this week goes as well. I'm definitely thinking more black than red.

 

Good luck guys.