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muck

Muck's Model

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Sell off? Maybe for a few days but not for very long. How much of a sell off? Not much as markets are generally unchanged over the last few years.

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...same as last week... it looks like we'll have a "+1" score again

 

+1 again ... I don't expect it to change between now and the close ...

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Scenario 1 is that the market topped last Friday and that the next major phase of the bear market, Primary wave 3 (circle) down is underway, a decline that should draw the Dow thousands of points lower over the coming year or more. This scenario can also be defined as the 'biggie'.

 

The 2nd scenario is that we have begun a several week decline that should reach the July lows (1011 S&P and 9614 DOW) or lower. Once these lows are reached we will then rebound to a new recovery high (that tops last Friday's highs) which will complete this bear market rally that started in Mar 09. After this new high, we will decline thousands of points in the dow.

 

The 3rd and final scenario is a multi-week net-sideways move that swings back and forth well into December. Once the sideways move is complete, prices will rebound to a new recovery high which will end this bear market rally. Like the other 2 scenarios above, the next phase will see a few thousand points shed from the dow.

 

Out of curiousity, which scenario has played out?

 

It looks like "scenario four" ... the market goes up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

...just bustin' your balls a bit...

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well then it must be NEXT week! NEXT week is the week of financial armaggeddon.

 

Honestly, I do think the stock market is in for a VERY rough stretch when the mirage that is China becomes more widely understood and/or if the US Congress really pulls back on the spending to try to balance the budget. I just don't think that is going to happen for a while ... maybe it starts some time before the end of next year (maybe even as early as late Q1 or early Q2) ... but, not now. IMO.

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Does anyone here besides Muck have any clue what to do with this? Very generous of Muck to provide this but is it any use to us 401k slaves? :wacko:

 

It's greek to me. Muck, you need to do my financial planning.

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It's greek to me. Muck, you need to do my financial planning.

 

Personal financial planning is very different than investment management. I know pretty much nothing about personal financial planning...but if you need someone I can refer you to the guy who'll handle everything for my family in the event that I get hit by a truck...

Edited by muck

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Same signal as the last few weeks...

 

+1

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No change this week.

 

+1

 

Barring something extraordinary, I'm not expecting any change next week, either. I am telling you guys this because I won't be updating next week during the week (but will put up next Friday's results sometime on Monday, Jan 3rd).

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No change this week.

 

+1

 

Barring something extraordinary, I'm not expecting any change next week, either. I am telling you guys this because I won't be updating next week during the week (but will put up next Friday's results sometime on Monday, Jan 3rd).

 

Yuppers...

 

No change. Still a "+1".

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Model is still "+1" ... no change.

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Model is still "+1" ... no change.

Just to remind us financial philistines, this is generally a good thing for those of us socking money away in stocks, yes?

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Just to remind us financial philistines, this is generally a good thing for those of us socking money away in stocks, yes?

 

Three 'rankings':

 

+2

+1

-1

 

Without another way to describe it would be "strong buy", "buy" and "sell/cash/short" (depending on your interests).

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When will the buzz wear off from QE2??

 

It's supposed to go through June. I believe they buy the bonds at somewhat regular intervals. I wasn't able to find any details on this though.

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Signal = +1

 

...and, just because the model has been right every week (pretty much) since I started publishing this doesn't mean it will continue...caveat emptor...

 

That said, it seems to be doing pretty well so far. :wacko:

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Honestly, I do think the stock market is in for a VERY rough stretch when the mirage that is China becomes more widely understood and/or if the US Congress really pulls back on the spending to try to balance the budget. I just don't think that is going to happen for a while ... maybe it starts some time before the end of next year (maybe even as early as late Q1 or early Q2) ... but, not now. IMO.

 

We're seeing a ton of inflation out of China right now. +10% in the last 6 months. Sad thing is when we've looked at other countries to price our goods, the prices aren't any better.

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It's supposed to go through June. I believe they buy the bonds at somewhat regular intervals. I wasn't able to find any details on this though.

That's true about QE2 lasting into the 2nd quarter but the market may continue to respond longer or stop responding sooner. Either way, this market is way to dangerous to buy right now.

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That's true about QE2 lasting into the 2nd quarter but the market may continue to respond longer or stop responding sooner. Either way, this market is way to dangerous to buy right now.

Still trying to be right? Seriously Brent it is time to admit you have no idea what is going on. Nobody is following your wave so just let it go. I will pay attention to what Muck has to say and then make my own decision.

 

Even Chicken Little figured out at some point that the sky wasn't falling.

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Either way, this market is way to dangerous to buy right now.

You have said that all through 2010 but those of us with 401k's are saying we've made bank in the last 12 months. The market can tank at any time, sure, but the last year has been a great time to go balls to the wall and buy.

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You have said that all through 2010 but those of us with 401k's are saying we've made bank in the last 12 months. The market can tank at any time, sure, but the last year has been a great time to go balls to the wall and buy.

 

and this is where everyone gets plugged in the pooper...

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You guys are right, initially, my call in 2010 looked amazing (with the correction from May to July) and since then the market has rallied. But you all are missing the point of my posts. Investing is a long-term game. You can be right buying for a year or even 20 years but when the market crashes, it does so quickly and ferociously. I've remained VERY CONSISTENT in saying this bear market will last at least 5 years - that means there will be periods of stock market growth. BUT IN THE END THE MARKET WILL BE AT LEVELS NOT FORSEEN BY MOST.

 

What good does it to be right buying for 1, 2, 10 years if you don't know when to be safe and get out of the market? If those of you who kept your 401ks going for 2010 are responsible enough to pull out at the right time - then bravo to you (I truly mean that). My point has always been that the market is fractured and this bullish behavior is an illusion. It's better to be safe and pull out now (or in 2010) than to be stuck long when the diaper dirt really hits the fan. The problem with most of you is that you are thinking (calling me out) based on short-term movements. I'm trying to protect you from the disaster that WILL OCCUR, regardless of whether or not it's this year or 2013, IT WILL HAPPEN.

 

Please don't mistake my forecasts for being short-term, they're not. I was a little bit over-confident about things happening quickly. In short, I under-estimated the FED. But in the end my doomsday scenario will be correct. This isn't about being 'right', however, it's about helping fellow huddlers portfolios. My intentions are only good. Belive me.

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Just saying . . . . the stock market has risen in value in the 3rd year of every presidential cycle going back to the 1940s . . . .

 

2011 is year three of Obama . . good time to buy? :wacko:

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