keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 (edited) Zia just poked fun at me in my "Breaking down the Jaguars" thread so it made me wonder...how much faith do people put in trends and historical data? For me they are both hugh in when I look at and project a player or team. So just curious how much "faith" for lack of a better word do you put into trends and historical data when you are looking at a player? Some historical data to chew on: (These are some numbers I had lying around for another project I was working on) These are totals for the entire NFL: Pass Completions 2003: 9638 2004: 9766 2005: 9780 2006: 9793 average of 9744...03 was the farthest off the average and that was only 1% off Pass Attemps 2003: 16370 2004: 16325 2005: 16441 2006: 16383 average of 16380 Rushing Attempts 2003: 14357 2004: 14219 2005: 14334 2006: 14324 average of 14309 Rushing Yards 2003: 60238 2004: 59364 2005: 57590 2006: 60094 average of 59322....2005 ends up the most off the average but that is still only 3% off and without 05 the average is 59898 Rushing YPC 2003: 4.20 2004: 4.17 2005: 4.02 2006: 4.20 no need to do an average...05 is really an anomaly of sorts and outside of that 4.2 was a safe number to use Rushing 1st downs 2003: 3274 2004: 3208 2005: 3100 2006: 3210 average is 3198 It is easy to see that 2005 was not in line with the historical rushing averages/trends but even then it isnt very far off either. Edited May 11, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 Nice ... but, gotta ask, why no 2007 or 2008 data? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Author Share Posted May 11, 2009 (edited) Nice ... but, gotta ask, why no 2007 or 2008 data? see below or re-read the 1st post Some historical data to chew on:(These are some numbers I had lying around for another project I was working on) the project was during the 2007 season and well I never finished it but the data still compels me to get at it some day Edited May 11, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 I look at the player(attitude, physical ability, work ethic), I look at the system, I look at the supporting cast & I look at opportunities. Trends are made to be broken & historical data is just that, history. No two players are alike, looking at what other players have done & trying to compare it to a current player makes no sense to me. If they were robots & were built & reacted the same way then you might have an argument, but to me the player himself has way more to do with it than any kind of historical data. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Author Share Posted May 11, 2009 I look at the player(attitude, physical ability, work ethic), I look at the system, I look at the supporting cast & I look at opportunities. Trends are made to be broken & historical data is just that, history. No two players are alike, looking at what other players have done & trying to compare it to a current player makes no sense to me. If they were robots & were built & reacted the same way then you might have an argument, but to me the player himself has way more to do with it than any kind of historical data. i look at many of those things too...but, IMO you can't just ignore historical numbers...MJD is a perfect case...could he out perform historical numbers? Sure he could but if you look at what some were saying he would produce(and they were saying they were being conservative) and then look at the historical numbers there is no way they were being conservative... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muck Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 (edited) Averages are just that; averages. Those who win do so by attaching their hopes and dreams to something that may not be average. Sorta like investing ... do you want Johnson & Johnson or do you want some little biotech ... or do you want some of both? See Chad Johnson's average performance for the six or so years before last year ... and compare that to last year. Similarly, compare Tom Brady's stats prior to 2007 with his 2007 numbers. Averages do not help in these situations ... and these are the situations that determine who wins and who loses. Knowing the numbers (hopefully) helps you develop intuitive understandings of when to use averages and when to consider reasons that things will deviate materially from the average. ETA: The past is not prologue. Edited May 11, 2009 by muck Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Author Share Posted May 11, 2009 (edited) Averages are just that; averages. Those who win do so by attaching their hopes and dreams to something that may not be average. Sorta like investing ... do you want Johnson & Johnson or do you want some little biotech ... or do you want some of both? See Chad Johnson's average performance for the six or so years before last year ... and compare that to last year. Similarly, compare Tom Brady's stats prior to 2007 with his 2007 numbers. Averages do not help in these situations ... and these are the situations that determine who wins and who loses. Knowing the numbers (hopefully) helps you develop intuitive understandings of when to use averages and when to consider reasons that things will deviate materially from the average. ETA: The past is not prologue. you can always cherry pick but i will still attempt to answer your post... CJ is a guy that I probably would have projected to not meet his historical numbers due to the distractions he was creating about being traded and the possibility of being traded...what you can't predict is an injury and CJs numbers were impacted as much by the injury of his QB as they were his antics Bradys 07 performance was truly and outlier and those sorta things do happen.... but as you said Knowing the numbers (hopefully) helps you develop intuitive understandings of when to use averages and when to consider reasons that things will deviate materially from the average. but i have to also add that knowing the numbers gives you for the most part a starting point to work backwards from (when you look at overall team production) because for the most part overall offensive production doesnt change all that much...yes there are factors that will change it ETA: I tend to look at the total number of offensive plays a team has had over X number of years...that helps me from getting over zealous in my predictions..IE: how many carries the RBs are gonna get and pass attempts will the QBs have... Edited May 11, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ziachild007 Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 I look at the player(attitude, physical ability, work ethic), I look at the system, I look at the supporting cast & I look at opportunities. Trends are made to be broken & historical data is just that, history. No two players are alike, looking at what other players have done & trying to compare it to a current player makes no sense to me. If they were robots & were built & reacted the same way then you might have an argument, but to me the player himself has way more to do with it than any kind of historical data. That's pretty much my thinking on it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 i look at many of those things too...but, IMO you can't just ignore historical numbers...MJD is a perfect case...could he out perform historical numbers? Sure he could but if you look at what some were saying he would produce(and they were saying they were being conservative) and then look at the historical numbers there is no way they were being conservative... I'd like to see how you historically compare MJD. He is a completely different back than any other they have had in recent years. As a full time starter he may end up with similar fantasy points as Taylor(on his good years), but you just can't compare the two. Taylor excelled at breaking long runs & as a receiver. He was never really known as a sure-fire TD machine, whereas MJD is a pounder who will get a ton of carries, especially to close out games & at the goal line. It all comes down to whether you think MJD is a quality enough back to get that job done & the only history you have to look at is his own in his limited role in Jax & his college years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Author Share Posted May 11, 2009 I'd like to see how you historically compare MJD. He is a completely different back than any other they have had in recent years. As a full time starter he may end up with similar fantasy points as Taylor(on his good years), but you just can't compare the two. Taylor excelled at breaking long runs & as a receiver. He was never really known as a sure-fire TD machine, whereas MJD is a pounder who will get a ton of carries, especially to close out games & at the goal line. It all comes down to whether you think MJD is a quality enough back to get that job done & the only history you have to look at is his own in his limited role in Jax & his college years. http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2825521 that is a bunch of what I did for MJD already....I am going to attempt to break down the Jags and that is when I will look at receptions/recv yards for him too Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rajncajn Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 http://forums.thehuddle.com/index.php?show...p;#entry2825521 that is a bunch of what I did for MJD already....I am going to attempt to break down the Jags and that is when I will look at receptions/recv yards for him too Holy crap! Even if you're right I can't imagine the tiniest bit of an edge you would get from it would be worth all that work. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keggerz Posted May 11, 2009 Author Share Posted May 11, 2009 (edited) Holy crap! Even if you're right I can't imagine the tiniest bit of an edge you would get from it would be worth all that work. not really sure what is so and fwiw, "all that work" doesn't really take that much time at all. Edited May 11, 2009 by keggerz Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
policyvote Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 I look at the player(attitude, physical ability, work ethic), I look at the system, I look at the supporting cast & I look at opportunities. Trends are made to be broken & historical data is just that, history. No two players are alike, looking at what other players have done & trying to compare it to a current player makes no sense to me. If they were robots & were built & reacted the same way then you might have an argument, but to me the player himself has way more to do with it than any kind of historical data. I think what you have to really do, to be successful, is to combine the two approaches. Brady is the perfect example of this. Here are his TD numbers, for each year of his career: 18, 28, 23, 28, 26, 24, 50 You take Brady, who reliably threw 23-28 TDs every season for five seasons, and in 2007 add Randy Moss. Obviously, Brady'd never had an elite reciever before then, and so I jumped on the bandwagon. Brady immediately doubled his usual TD output, and I won a championship in my local. Fast forward to this past season. Most of the FF world jumped on the bandwagon; I jumped off. In fact, that same local is an auction keeper league, and I elected not to keep him, though it would have been for less than market value. Why? Because Brady had been reliable as clockwork for years; if you subtract the novelty of Brady-to-Moss, he becomes what he always has been. In fact, NFL defenses were already figuring out the Moss thing by the end of the season; indeed most of his production had already shifted to hitting Welker 15 times in the space underneath Moss. I'd of course be lying if I said I predicted the ACL thing, but I definitely expected far less from Brady than most going into last season. Coming into 2007, you had to modify what the stats "knew" about Brady, because of the game-breaking addition of Randy Moss. Coming into 2008, you had to disregard the wild-eyed hype, and look at the cold hard facts. Peace policy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Stanky Posted May 11, 2009 Share Posted May 11, 2009 I can appreciate the research that keggerz puts into his historical data. I think in allot of cases it's spot on and very helpful when doing your projections. The main issue I have with focussing on it too much is that you might miss out on breakout candidates. As most of you know, hitting on a breakout candidate or two can ultimately make the difference in just squeaking into the playoffs and winning a championship. At some point or another you have to take that leap of faith on a player that you really believe in. MJD was that player for me at the end of last season. In my dynasty league I was unfortunately out of it by week 11. I pinpointed a few players that I wanted to acquire. I was able to get MJD for essentially Matt Cassel. The team I traded with was making that final push to try and win a championship. Going into this year it appears that my forcasting was on point, since allot of people rate MJD as a tope 3 back in PPR leagues. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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