2d/3d tier RBs

[Guest THEbigred]

McAllister

EJ

Holmes

McGhee

Portis

R Johnson

Barber

J Lewis

Dillon

Dom Davis

J Jones

Kv Jones

Martin

A Green

L Jordon

 

.....this is pretty much the GLUT at 2d tier I have. I've tinkered with a 3d tier but it keeps changing, as do the orders.

 

Not looking for anyone's rankings really, but general discussion on this key group of RBs and who you prefer (for the price) and why......

 

For ex. I will probably avoid Holmes and DD for injury reasons (I have a verrry bad history there....).

 

- The Jonses I like, but feel they may be overpriced in our auction draft.

 

- Martin I feel sort of loyal to because he's helped me win 2 titles (5 yrs apart no less) and he just keep producing, although a TD drop-off is a concern.

 

- R Johnson I like but the odds of getting 1400+ twice in a row aren't great for ANY back (and he's no LT)....and he totally sucks at receiving. However his TD production look promising.

 

- J Lewis: boom or bust IMO. He has a chip on his shoulder, which is good, but his career is a 1300/7ish kinda thing....not dazzling.....

 

Random thoughts?

[tomfin2000]

McAllister - Has great individual talent, no major changes at the other skill positions, an upgraded line, and a new OC that favors the run. Thumbs up.

 

EJ - The Indy offense and the inability of opposing defenses to stack the box make him look a LOT better than he actually is. Sucks at the goalline even when given oppoturnities. A safe option, but won't give you many monster games and isn't worth a high first round pick IMHO.

 

Holmes - Who's the best player in Fantasy Football? Whoever is lining up at the RB position for the Chiefs. Take Holmes, then take Larry Johnson in the fourth or fifth round before anyone else can get him. You could start both of them each week and probably outscore most of the other teams' RB tandems. If Holmes goes down, you could probably pair Johnson with just about any other chump that gets a handful of touches and STILL outscore most of the the other teams' RB tandems. The Chiefs' running game is just that good. Lock it up and you don't need much else.

 

McGhee - Great individual talent, but way too big a risk to spend a high first round pick on, especially with a new starting QB. I want to see another year of production before I spend a top five pick on him.

 

Portis - I don't care how talented Portis is. That offense sucks and they did very little to upgrade it during the offseason. Expect the same kind of season he had last year and don't take him unless he falls to the second round.

 

R Johnson - One of the most underrated backs in FFL as far as I'm concerned. He's surrounded by great skill players and solid offensive line, so I full expect him to be a top ten back again this year. Great value in the second round (or even at the end of the first) and a very safe pick.

 

Barber - Barber's numbers will decline. He's getting older. He's an injury risk. He'll lose goalline carries. Blah, blah, blah. Sounds a lot like last preseason, doesn't it? Even if he loses a few TDs to Jacobs, he's still a better option than half the guys on this list.

 

J Lewis - Personally, I can't stand him or the Ravens, but honestly, he's solid first round pick. He plays for a run first team with at great defense and a great offensive line. He's going to be out for blood after the year he's had, and the upgrades at the skill positions, although not spectacular, can't hurt.

 

Dillon - No reason why he can't do what he did last year, especially with the talent he's surrounded by. Another solid first round pick.

 

Dom Davis - High risk, high reward. There's always the threat of injury, and the Texans offense makes me nervous as well. Not the best first round pick, but a steal in the second round if he falls that far.

 

J Jones - Great potential, but it's hard to spend a high draft choice on a guy that doesn't have a full year of experience as and NFL starter. After getting burned by William Green in 2003 and Quintin Griffin and Lee Suggs in 2004, taking guys like this makes me nervous.

 

Kv Jones - See above. Probably a safer pick than Julius though do to his skill set and the situation he's in.

 

Martin - I see no reason why he can't turn in yet another solid season. I'm sure there will be a decent drop from last year's stats, but I'd still rather have him than a lot of the backs mentioned above, and he'll come a lot cheaper on draft day.

 

A Green - I would say "see Martin", but the downgraded offensive line and the potentially horrible defense puts him in a less desirable situation than Curtis is. Still a safer option than a lot of the other guys though.

 

L Jordon - Should have a big year by all accounts, but it's hard to trust a guy that's never had a starting gig before. I'd take him in the third, but the second is a little too soon for me, especially if it means passing up on a top five WR, Culpepper, or McNabb.

Edited August 11, 2005 by tomfin2000

[yo mama]

My random thoughts:

 

McAllister: burned a lot of people last year with that high ankle sprain. But an erratic QB and an improved O-line spell success for McAllister, assuming the injury bug doesn't bite again.

EJ: solid 1st round value who has worth more in yardage heavy leagues. Manning scores so many TDs that Edge's value slips in TD heavy leagues.

Holmes: not even in my top 12 RBs, as far a keeper leagues go. In a redraft, just barely.

McGahee: There's a lot of talent and a lot of hype. It's tough to distinguish which is the stonger force in play. But those who gamble right on this guy (either way) are going to fell like genius. Because there is no middle ground with McGahee this year. Either you reach for him early, or you don't get him.

Portis: a talented, productive back with only a marginal injury concern. Supporting cast is more of a conern than anything. Too bad he wasn't still a Bronco.

R Johnson: a money young RB. If the passing game lives up to expectations this year he's gonna have a lot of room to run. Creeps into my top overall 12 picks.

Barber: dude's hard to pin down. But one thing is for certain: you've gotta be willing to make your hay on yardage and points for receptions if you draft Barber. He doesn't deliver lots of TDs.

J Lewis: he scares me. In a good way. Now more than ever. Mid first round if he we're available, I'd have no problem problem hitching my wagon to this beast.

Dillon: age is a concern, but supporting cast isn't. And he's got no serious challengers behind him. Borderline #1 but a killer #2.

Dom Davis: points for receptions increases value. Lack of primary handcuff and his durability are concerning, but his upside simply cannont be ignored. He's got a lot in common with Westbrook.

J Jones: Another beast, but younger than Lewis. I have full faith the Tuna is gonna work him so long as he produces. And I have full faith that he'll produce. I think the Cowboys may actually miss Testeverde, and the success or failure of the passing game will undoubtedly affect the running game.

Kv Jones: Like McGahee (ratio of hype to talent is hard to determine, but there is certainly talent), but can be acquired later. Lacks the support of a Buffalo-like DEF to keep things close, but then again, Buffalo lacks a Detroit-like rook of receivers. So there.

Martin: Sir, I salute you. Mr. Dependable. The Jets run the ball. A lot. Even if Martin doesn't meet last year's stats, he'll still be the primary work horse of a run-first team. Maybe he does have a lot of mileage, but that matters more in keeper leagues. Regardless, Martin is a productive, underated #2 RB that is super-low risk.

A Green: High risk, and at least a history of high reward. But I'm down on Green. Way down. Late 2.12/3.1 material, in my book.

L Jordon: role is unclear because we can't know the kind of run/pass ratio the Raiders are going to run now that they actually have a running back. However, the fact that he is the #1 RB on a nitro-fueled offense is crystal clear. Even if Crockett vultures and the passing game gets a little more than its fair share, Jordon is still is a terrific spot for fantasy production. He's young, his little mileage, and has flashed enough talent to warrant #2 RB duties. But you'll obviously have to reach/pay more more for him in a keeper league.

Edited August 11, 2005 by yo mama

[Bengal Mania]

McAllister - Has great individual talent, no major changes at the other skill positions, an upgraded line, and a new OC that favors the run.  Thumbs up.

 

EJ - The Indy offense and the inability of opposing defenses to stack the box make him look a LOT better than he actually is.  Sucks at the goalline even when given oppoturnities.  A safe option, but won't give you many monster games and isn't worth a high first round pick IMHO.

 

Holmes - Who's the best player in Fantasy Football?  Whoever is lining up at the RB position for the Chiefs.  Take Holmes, then take Larry Johnson in the fourth or fifth round before anyone else can get him.  You could start both of them each week and probably outscore most of the other teams' RB tandems.  If Holmes goes down, you could probably pair Johnson with just about any other chump that gets a handful of touches and STILL outscore most of the the other teams' RB tandems.  The Chiefs' running game is just that good.  Lock it up and you don't need much else.

 

McGhee -  Great individual talent, but way too big a risk to spend a high first round pick on, especially with a new starting QB.  I want to see another year of production before I spend a top five pick on him.

 

Portis - I don't care how talented Portis is.  That offense sucks and they did very little to upgrade it during the offseason.  Expect the same kind of season he had last year and don't take him unless he falls to the second round.

 

R Johnson -  One of the most underrated backs in FFL as far as I'm concerned.  He's surrounded by great skill players and solid offensive line, so I full expect him to be a top ten back again this year.  Great value in the second round (or even at the end of the first) and a very safe pick.

 

Barber - Barber's numbers will decline.  He's getting older.  He's an injury risk.  He'll lose goalline carries.  Blah, blah, blah.  Sounds a lot like last preseason, doesn't it?  Even if he loses a few TDs to Jacobs, he's still a better option than half the guys on this list.

 

J Lewis - Personally, I can't stand him or the Ravens, but honestly, he's solid first round pick.  He plays for a run first team with at great defense and a great offensive line.  He's going to be out for blood after the year he's had, and the upgrades at the skill positions, although not spectacular, can't hurt.

 

Dillon - No reason why he can't do what he did last year, especially with the talent he's surrounded by.  Another solid first round pick.

 

Dom Davis -  High risk, high reward.  There's always the threat of injury, and the Texans offense makes me nervous as well.  Not the best first round pick, but a steal in the second round if he falls that far.

 

J Jones - Great potential, but it's hard to spend a high draft choice on a guy that doesn't have a full year of experience as and NFL starter.  After getting burned by William Green in 2003 and Quintin Griffin and Lee Suggs in 2004, taking guys like this makes me nervous.

 

Kv Jones - See above.  Probably a safer pick than Julius though do to his skill set and the situation he's in.

 

Martin - I see no reason why he can't turn in yet another solid season.  I'm sure there will be a decent drop from last year's stats, but I'd still rather have him than a lot of the backs mentioned above, and he'll come a lot cheaper on draft day.

 

A Green - I would say "see Martin", but the downgraded offensive line and the potentially horrible defense puts him in a less desirable situation than Curtis is.  Still a safer option than a lot of the other guys though.

 

L Jordon - Should have a big year by all accounts, but it's hard to trust a guy that's never had a starting gig before.  I'd take him in the third, but the second is a little too soon for me, especially if it means passing up on a top five WR, Culpepper, or McNabb.

 

920827[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Good analysis, but you apparently wouldn't take any of these guys in the first round? So who are you taking if you have a mid/late 1st round pick?

[PackerFanX]

I am in 3 twelve team leagues and have the 11th or 12th pick in each of them. I am struggling to determing what 2nd tier RB to take at this spot. That is assuming someone like Edge or McAllister don't slip down to me.

Edited August 11, 2005 by PackerFanX

[Zooty]

I still can't figure out why Ahman has fallen so far? I know he was hurt a little last year. I just don't see Davenport taking his spot unless he gets hurt. Is he hurt or is everyone just gunshy of him. Holmes is still at 3 or 4 and most people concede that he won't play 16 games.

[T_bone65]

I am in 3 twelve team leagues and have the 11th or 12th pick in each of them.  I am struggling to determing what 2nd tier RB to take at this spot.  That is assuming someone like Edge or McAllister don't slip down to me.

 

921170[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

If Edge slips to you at the 11th or 12th pick in any of your drafts let me know, I would love to be in that league

[Roo]

I still can't figure out why Ahman has fallen so far?  I know he was hurt a little last year.  I just don't see Davenport taking his spot unless he gets hurt.  Is he hurt or is everyone just gunshy of him.  Holmes is still at 3 or 4 and most people concede that he won't play 16 games.

 

921250[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

 

I have to agree here. People always focus too much on the previous year. Ahman should be perfectly productive - the big concern in the weak O-line and shootout potential. 1350 and 10, is about what I would expect.

[GTKeeper]

I think people fail to realize that a good O line is what makes a good running back GREAT. The reason Amhan has fallen is because half his O line is gone this year.

 

Why does Denver produce such awesome RBs year after year? O line

Why do the chiefs run all over everyone? O line

Why is LT going to have a MONSTER season this year? Because his O line is the same as last year, great young guys learning to work together even more.

 

Why is Lamont Jordan going to have a good year? Because his O line is awesome.

 

When picking RBs I always look at the O line personel changes.

[tomfin2000]

Good analysis, but you apparently wouldn't take any of these guys in the first round?  So who are you taking if you have a mid/late 1st round pick?

 

921138[/snapback]

 

 

 

 

Well, I just found out tonight I have the second overall pick, so I'm pumped! Come to papa, Shawn! (Or maybe even LT if the guy at No. 1 decides to take Manning!)

 

Back to your question, I would happily take LT, Alexander, Holmes, McAllister, Lewis and Dilllon in the first round depending on where I was picking. If I was picking late, and they were all off the board along with Manning and Moss, then I suppose I would have to give Edge, Davis, Rudi Johnson, and Barber consideration.

[Guest THEbigred]

tomfin, yomama: excellent posts. It's too late and I'm too drunk to respond right now, but good stuff, thx. (OK actually I'm not really drunk, just tired.....)