fratztrain Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I'm in a bind and need advice on which sorry-ass RB to start along w/ LJ: M Alstott vs. NOrl T Bell vs. KC R Dayne vs. KC P Pass vs. NYJ K Faulk vs. NYJ At this point, I'm leaning towards Alstott because he's got the lowest risk and has decent upside. I'd like to go with Pass vs. the lowly Jets, but now that Dillon's practicing and Faulk may(?) be back, I'm uncertain on what to expect from Pass. Got burned on Bell already and don't have faith in either Bell or Dayne... What a mess! Advice appreciated. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearcatTom Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I say Bell as long as he is back. He should get good touches and that Denver off. line just knows how to block. If Bell is iffy, I'd go with Alstott, just for TD potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panthersfan Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I have Bell too, and have also been burned by him a few times. I like Alstott this week, he has the most potential. Good Luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gdawg Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 I like Alstott against a terrible Saints rush D. He should get a goal line plunge again this week. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tally Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 Bell if healty if not Dayne. Denver is gonna run all day long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Piranha Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 Alstott Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fratztrain Posted December 2, 2005 Author Share Posted December 2, 2005 B U M P Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thz Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 alstott Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekapaug Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 Clearly Bell or Alstot are the best choices. Bell has typically had good games against tough run Ds. I think KC qualifies as a tough run D and would start Bell with confidence. DEN will pound Anderson to wear them down then send in the shiftier Bell to run circles around 'em. Alstot does have upside, but hoping he gets a short TD plunge is very risky IMO. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fratztrain Posted December 2, 2005 Author Share Posted December 2, 2005 So far we've got 3 Bells and 4 Alstotts. Weekapaug, I agree that hoping Alstott gets a short TD plunge is very risky, but with word coming out that Dayne will get some carries, isn't Bell risky too? With Alstott, I'd likely get ~20 yds and say 75% chance of 1 TD, 20% chance of 2 TDs. With Bell, I'd likely get ~50-60 yds with 33% of 1 TD, 20% chance of 2 TDs. Hmmm. I appreciate all the input I can get! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weekapaug Posted December 2, 2005 Share Posted December 2, 2005 With Alstott, I'd likely get ~20 yds and say 75% chance of 1 TD, 20% chance of 2 TDs. With Bell, I'd likely get ~50-60 yds with 33% of 1 TD, 20% chance of 2 TDs. 1187311[/snapback] Well there you have it. Based on your expectations for the outcomes and my limited fleeting memories of chance and probability your expected outcome is: Alstott - 2pt + 55%*6pts + 20%*12 pts = 7.7 pts Bell - 5.5pts + 13%*6pts + 20%*12 pts = 8.7 pts I personally don't think Dayne will take more than 5 carries total, but you'll have to ask Shanahan to be 0.000001% sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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