steeler Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I not an avid gambler so I have some questions about these different types of bets. First the basics; if these are the lines: Steelers -4.5 (115) Seahawks + 4.5 (105) Moneyline: Steelers (-190) Seahawks (+165) I have to bet 115 on the Steelers to win by 4.5 or 105 for Seattle getting 4.5 points. Also, for the moneyline, I'd have to bet 190 on the Steelers to win 100 straight up and 100 on Seattle to win 165 straight up... right? I think that's right... so my question is; for a moneyline bet on the Steelers... I'm essentially buying the 4.5 points for 75 units...which is a little over 16 units per point... is this pretty much the standard rate for buying points? Or am I thinking about this totally wrong Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whomper Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 The money line would be directly related to the original spread..If the line was bigger the vig would be bigger in the money line..If the steelers were favored by 10 the money line would be bigger than 190. Your basically thinking about it the right way . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I not an avid gambler so I have some questions about these different types of bets. First the basics; if these are the lines: Steelers -4.5 (115) Seahawks + 4.5 (105) Moneyline: Steelers (-190) Seahawks (+165) I have to bet 115 on the Steelers to win by 4.5 or 105 for Seattle getting 4.5 points. Also, for the moneyline, I'd have to bet 190 on the Steelers to win 100 straight up and 100 on Seattle to win 165 straight up... right? I think that's right... so my question is; for a moneyline bet on the Steelers... I'm essentially buying the 4.5 points for 75 units...which is a little over 16 units per point... is this pretty much the standard rate for buying points? Or am I thinking about this totally wrong 1301955[/snapback] First of all, you're getting screwwed on the line. My book is -4. I haven't heard of it going to -4.5. You are correct in your comments on betting structure moneyline vs. points. Not too sure about the comments on the per-unit valuation of comparing the moneyline to the points. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 I not an avid gambler so I have some questions about these different types of bets. First the basics; if these are the lines: Steelers -4.5 (115) Seahawks + 4.5 (105) Moneyline: Steelers (-190) Seahawks (+165) I have to bet 115 on the Steelers to win by 4.5 or 105 for Seattle getting 4.5 points. Also, for the moneyline, I'd have to bet 190 on the Steelers to win 100 straight up and 100 on Seattle to win 165 straight up... right? I think that's right... so my question is; for a moneyline bet on the Steelers... I'm essentially buying the 4.5 points for 75 units...which is a little over 16 units per point... is this pretty much the standard rate for buying points? Or am I thinking about this totally wrong 1301955[/snapback] i don't know about the correlation between points/units. the money-line is basically just a reflections of the odds, according to vegas, of each team winning the game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bushwacked Posted February 2, 2006 Share Posted February 2, 2006 First of all, you're getting screwwed on the line. My book is -4. I haven't heard of it going to -4.5. 1301975[/snapback] My book has the Steelers -4 (-106) and the money line is -184. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Any other comments on this regarding how much it ususally costs to buy points via the money line? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugh B Tool Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Line should be at 4, if you get 4.5 from your book take the Hawks. 90% of all SB money bet in Vegas is done between today around 9am and Sunday game time. Line moved early but the books won't let it happen unless there is at least a 9 figure swing one way. Money is the way to go if you have total faith in the straight up win on the team of your choice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 My book is still at -4. The ML, however, has moved a bit. Steelers are -190 and the Hawks are +165. My book's o/u has moved down to 46.5, while oddly enough Stardust's has moved up to 47.5. Mirage is still at 47. The %s are still the same. 55% to Steelers -4, 45% Hawks +4. 57% Steelers ML, 43 Hawks ML. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukdown Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 a pretty common Super Bowl bet is to give the points with the favorite, and bet back the dog on the money line. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 a pretty common Super Bowl bet is to give the points with the favorite, and bet back the dog on the money line. 1303414[/snapback] I don't get it. You bet 110 on the favorite to win 100. Then bet 100 on the dog to win 165. So if the favorite covers you break even. If the dog covers, but loses the game you lose 210. If the dog wins outright, you win 65. I must have something wrong here because I don't understand the benefits of doing this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 (edited) I don't get it. You bet 110 on the favorite to win 100. Then bet 100 on the dog to win 165. So if the favorite covers you break even. If the dog covers, but loses the game you lose 210. If the dog wins outright, you win 65. I must have something wrong here because I don't understand the benefits of doing this. 1303570[/snapback] There is no benefit in betting this way in my opinion. Too much hedging. And I am a fan of hedging in general, but that makes no sense to me either. Here is how I am betting the game. I am betting Seahawks +4 and 4.5. I have a parlay with Seattle + 4 and the over. My only hedge in this game is a smaller wager for Steelers moneyline and the over in a parlay. (blowout insurance) So even though I am hedging some, I still have the opportunity to win all of my bets. My chips are on a high scoring, close game. To me this is the most efficient way of hedging. Pick a side and stay there. Making two bets that counteract each other as you have described will almost always result in the worst case scenario (Pitts. win and not covering) taking you down. Of course none of this information is useful if you have picked wrong to begin with!! Edited February 3, 2006 by rattsass Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Holy crap my book went up to 4.5. I took the Hawks +4.5 and the over (46.5). I may get saucy and bet the Hawks straight-up too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Holy crap my book went up to 4.5. I took the Hawks +4.5 and the over (46.5). I may get saucy and bet the Hawks straight-up too. 1303812[/snapback] Mine has been bouncing between 4 - 4.5 like a rubber ball. Wish I would have waited for that 46.5 action though. (not that I am too worried about it) I have a moneyline bet on Sea. also. Great value. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 Mine has been bouncing between 4 - 4.5 like a rubber ball. Wish I would have waited for that 46.5 action though. (not that I am too worried about it) I have a moneyline bet on Sea. also. Great value. 1303820[/snapback] Is there ever value in betting the favorite on the moneyline? If you do this, you are essentially buying the points back.... but how do determine if you are getting good value on buying those points? 75 (nearly 50% of the wager) for buying 4.5 points doesn't seem like good value to me... which is kinda why I asked the question in my first post. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darin3 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 Is there ever value in betting the favorite on the moneyline? If you do this, you are essentially buying the points back.... but how do determine if you are getting good value on buying those points? 75 (nearly 50% of the wager) for buying 4.5 points doesn't seem like good value to me... which is kinda why I asked the question in my first post. 1303925[/snapback] If you are betting with a hugh bankroll, perhaps you put a significant amount of money on the favorite to win. It's like poker in some respects. You're most likely not going to call a $3 bet when the pot is only $1. But if the pot is $30 and the bet's still $3, you're gonna call. Similarly, if a favorite is -300 or something ridiculous, you're probably not gonna bet (call) it. Unless you're gonna put thousands upon thousands of dollars on it to get a decent return. And of course you better be damm sure they're gonna win! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rattsass Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 If you are betting with a hugh bankroll, perhaps you put a significant amount of money on the favorite to win. It's like poker in some respects. You're most likely not going to call a $3 bet when the pot is only $1. But if the pot is $30 and the bet's still $3, you're gonna call. Similarly, if a favorite is -300 or something ridiculous, you're probably not gonna bet (call) it. Unless you're gonna put thousands upon thousands of dollars on it to get a decent return. And of course you better be damm sure they're gonna win! 1304023[/snapback] Bankroll does have a lot to do with it I suppose, but like you say, you'd better be darn sure. I'm all about risk to reward ratio, and the ratio in this game on the Steelers is absolutely horrible. If you bet the Steelers in this game on a moneyline and lose you are going to be just sick, especially when the guy that put up the same bet on the 'Hawks hauls in 3 times what you would have won. On the other side, if I lose a moneyline bet on the 'Hawks, I will still feel fine about my decision afterward, because I took a reasonable risk/reward chance. Whatever you do, you need to be able to live with the decision. I hate hating myself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Azazello1313 Posted February 3, 2006 Share Posted February 3, 2006 i don't bet often, but when i do....if i like the favorite, i'll bet the spread. if i like the dog, i'll bet the money line. the money line on the hawks looks pretty good to me. maybe i'll drop a few hamiltons on it... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steeler Posted February 3, 2006 Author Share Posted February 3, 2006 i don't bet often, but when i do....if i like the favorite, i'll bet the spread. if i like the dog, i'll bet the money line. This seems reasonable. the money line on the hawks looks pretty good to me. maybe i'll drop a few hamiltons on it... 1304105[/snapback] This does not Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukdown Posted February 4, 2006 Share Posted February 4, 2006 Ya, they've pretty much caught onto it, but there was a time, specifically with the St. Louis-New England Super Bowl, where it was a guaranteed money maker. The New England-Carolina Super Bowl was pretty popularly known for this combination. The money-line needs to climb a bit higher, which from all indications, is going to happen as the line is heading most likely towards -5 from what I'm hearing. Even though 5 is usually considered a dead number. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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