Good read / analysis, from a former NFL scout

[Big Score 1]

By Chris Landry, Yahoo Sports

October 24, 2006

 

Is Chris Henry's absence the main reason the Cincinnati Bengals' offense has been less explosive recently?

 

The Bengals' offense has struggled mainly because of offensive line problems, which stem from injuries and the unit's inability to adjust to them. Cincinnati lost center Rich Braham early in the year and replaced him with Eric Ghiaciuc. Ghiaciuc, however, struggled to anchor against power rushers so they moved left guard Eric Steinbach to center. As a result, rookie Andrew Whitworth took over at left guard. Even though this made the Bengals weaker at two spots, this was their best option. But making matters worse, their left tackle and best pass protector Levi Jones went down with an injury against Tampa Bay and missed Sunday's game against the Panthers.

 

Cincinnati's offense is built around a vertical passing attack, and without adequate protection you do not have enough time for routes to progress down the field. That then compresses the field for the defense and allows the opposition more commitment to stop the running attack.

 

With wide receiver Chris Henry out, the Bengals lose one of their three outstanding vertical options. As a result, defenses aren't forced to use a nickel back as much, which in turn gives them a better chance of stopping the run. The Bengals also are missing a tight end that can stretch the seam, and this makes the loss of Henry worse because Cincy's big plays come out of its three-wide receiver sets.

 

The line played better from the second quarter on against a good Panthers' defensive line, but the struggles on third downs are making Cincinnati's hurry-up offense ineffective.

 

What are the New York Jets doing that have made Chad Pennington one of the most efficient/productive passers again?

 

It's the other way around. It's the decision making and off-field work by Pennington that has made the offense of the Jets effective. He is doing nothing different than he did prior to his injury.

 

He doesn't have the arm to stretch the field with deep outs, but he makes up for it with the quick location of his second- and third-read options. His willingness to go to the check-down option sooner has led to many run-after-catch opportunities for Jets' backs and receivers.

 

New York's willingness to take chances on early downs has opened up the running game with rookie Leon Washington, who hits the hole quickly. Play calling has been good, but Pennington's pre-snap reads and abilities to check into the right play have given this offense an edge. No quarterback in the league, with the exception of Indianapolis' Peyton Manning, surveys the field better than Pennington. New England's Tom Brady, with more physical abilities and options he can call upon, is on par with Pennington.

 

Why is the Jacksonville Jaguars' offense so up and down?

 

The Jaguars are a big, physical team that lacks explosive playmakers on the perimeter. They do a nice job with the fade, slant and quick post routes, but they have not had much beyond the run-after-catch abilities of running backs Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor.

 

For the most part, they beat you with physical play or they don't beat you at all. They struggle with the passing game when playing from a chase position. Inconsistent quarterback and offensive line play have also hurt the team.

 

When the Jaguars have success, they are controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. When they get beat at the line of scrimmage, as was the case against Houston on Sunday, they don't have an alternate formula for success.

 

Finally, they are a field-position team, meaning they do not take chances unless they are in an opponent's territory. The defense really misses Mike Peterson against the run and the unit is not getting off the field quick enough on third downs, creating less favorable field position for the offense.

 

How much does quarterback rating impact a quarterback's evaluation?

 

Not much. You have to be able to interpret the statistics in order to be able to use them. Quarterback ratings are made up of things like completion percentages. What does a completion percentage tell you other than whether the pass was completed? It does not tell you how well a quarterback threw the ball. Did he make the right read? Did he throw it on time? Did he place it where it needed to be? Statistically, if a quarterback makes a bad throw that is caught, he gets credit for it, yet he gets penalized when a receiver drops the ball.

 

When evaluating quarterbacks, I chart every throw on a passing tree and grade it accordingly. In order to evaluate a player, you must evaluate the individual performance within a team concept while understanding how and what that team is doing and how it affects that individual's performance accordingly.

 

For instance, if a quarterback throws a perfect strike into the receiver's numbers on the quick slant for a 12-yard gain on third and 10, most observers would consider that a positive. Not necessarily from my perspective. On slant routes, you want the ball placed on the front side shoulder so the receiver can catch it in stride. I came across this situation when breaking down a game on Sunday evening. The defense was playing a Cover 2 shell look. The quarterback had ample time on a five-step drop and delivered the ball nicely into the receiver's chest, causing the receiver to adjust and slow down a bit. That allowed just enough time for the free safety to recover and make the tackle. A ball placed on the front side shoulder of the target would have allowed the receiver to remain in stride for a 65-yard touchdown pass, as the safety would not have had the angle to get him. From a statistical standpoint, the play was a positive, but was graded negatively in the film room. By the way, the team fumbled on the next play and lost by three – so this could have been the difference between winning and losing.

 

Sometimes a quarterback throws what appears to be an off-target pass, but he is actually attempting to place the ball in the safest possible position where the receiver, and no one else, has a shot at catching it. Statistically, the incompletion hurts the quarterback but the misfire is a positive in the film room.

 

It's natural for fans and the media to notice an interception, a fumble, a missed tackle, a sack, etc. but it's the little things that make the real difference in a game and help you evaluate a player.

 

How important are statistics in football?

 

Football statistics are very misleading and often do not paint an accurate picture of the player or team, so keep that in mind when people use stats to support their arguments. It's important to interpret the stats correctly and understand what they truly mean.

 

For instance, average rushing yards per carry are important but do not tell you all you need to know about a running back's performance. Rather, the numbers might more accurately reflect the team's overall offensive performance. Average yard per carry is affected by offensive line play, quarterback play and passing game ability. Running against seven-man fronts is entirely different than running versus eight-man fronts. This is why so many teams run out of the spread formation.

 

You often see a poor defensive unit rank fairly well in pass defense. This is the result of teams running the ball up and down against them and not needing to pass as much. Yards are overrated. Points are obviously the key. Turnover ratio, red zone efficiency, explosive plays (runs of 10 yards or more and passes of 20 yards or more), and third-down efficiency are the most important statistics that affect winning and losing.

 

Why is the fullback not utilized as much in today's offenses?

 

Because of the proliferation of eight-man fronts and zone blitzing, many offenses have abandoned the I-formation and two-back running game in favor of spreading the field. If you have a dynamic tailback, I-formation football with a lead blocker is still an effective way to run the football. Seattle Seahawks coach Mike Holmgren runs the closest version of the true West Coast offense, where the fullback is still an integral part of the offense.

[Sam]

Thanks for posting this.

[Riffraff]

Always a good read

[Mark5]

Stats in football are always what you want them to be. The old addage "everybody lead the league in SOMETHING" holds true.

 

Like the 1,000 yard rushing-- its 16 games and comes out to like 67 yards a game Now 1,400 yards should be the parameter they go by.

 

Turnovers and Red zone eff. are good stats.