Tford Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 I joined a keeper league that will have its inaugral draft this year. Through some trading, I managed to get the 1.03 pick thinking I would be set with SJax as my #1 RB. PPR league I should mention. However, I've been reading a handful of discussions regarding LJ and the historical dropoff after getting 370+ carries in a season (Bronco Billy's thread included). Frankly, this doesn't affect me directly but should the team at 1.02 get gun-shy about picking LJ and select SJax instead, I would be stuck with a player that I personally would rather not gamble on. What would you do? 1) Stand pat and bank that 1.02 is indeed LJ, but draft him at 1.03 and keep him if 1.02 is SJax. 2) Trade down in the first round 3) Draft LJ at 1.03 and deal him before the season starts. Part of this is just making discussion because it is a boring Monday at work but I'm also curious as to what others think about this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 This is a great year to trade down. I traded all the way out of the 1st round in a dynasty draft & netted a 2nd, 3rd, & 6th for my 1st rounder and what would be equivalent to a 5th rounder. I assume because it is an initial keeper draft that incoming rooks will be available with the vets? That makes trading down even more tasty. The young guys are going to go really high (re: Bush, Gore, Maroney, Addai, Peterson, & Lynch) and leave some really solid vets waiting to be stolen later. Those extra picks put you way ahead of the field by the time the middle rounds roll around. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Country Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Yet another good post by Billy. If you really want SJax, you could always get deals lined up but state that you want to hold of on trading until the draft, see who goes at #2, and then make your decision. Of course, if you do this you run the risk of whomever you have lined up to move up backin out if they too wanted SJax and arent willing to deal for LJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tford Posted March 12, 2007 Author Share Posted March 12, 2007 This is a great year to trade down. I traded all the way out of the 1st round in a dynasty draft & netted a 2nd, 3rd, & 6th for my 1st rounder and what would be equivalent to a 5th rounder. I assume because it is an initial keeper draft that incoming rooks will be available with the vets? That makes trading down even more tasty. The young guys are going to go really high (re: Bush, Gore, Maroney, Addai, Peterson, & Lynch) and leave some really solid vets waiting to be stolen later. Those extra picks put you way ahead of the field by the time the middle rounds roll around. I suppose I should have outlined that this keeper league allows three keepers max, placing a bit of extra pressure to get solid round 1-4 choices. However, given that the league is IDP, I feel that the league will likely be won or lost by defense. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Savage Beatings Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 Couple of questions... Is this a long draft or a quick one? In other words, can you wait until after the first two picks go down, and then if LT and SJax have been taken you offer to trade down with the other owners? How long can you keep a player... and how many players can you keep? Something that I would suggest as well... even if you do not believe that Larry Johnson will be able to keep up his performance after his large year last season, it might still be worth it to draft him if he falls to you at 1.03, and then trade him away after the first 4 weeks or so of the season. I would be willing to bet that he will start out gang busters which could net you a better trade in the long run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bronco Billy Posted March 12, 2007 Share Posted March 12, 2007 (edited) I suppose I should have outlined that this keeper league allows three keepers max, placing a bit of extra pressure to get solid round 1-4 choices. The key here is to use the mentality that you posted above against the other owners. By placing such a great emphasis on getting a stud with a 1st round pick - especially young stud RBs - you're going to see some very productive players drop. You need to lose the herd mentality & think outside the box a bit, and you'll end up winning the league. I used the exact same thinking by other owners to my advantage. By trading down, I ended up getting Westbrook with the 2.01 I acquired in trading my 1st rounder. He would have been the 4th best RB had the league been in existence last season, but dropped way too far because of the emphasis on youth. I then parlayed my extra 2nd & 3rd rounder into Steve Smith, Roy Williams, & McNabb with the next 3 picks. S Smith when prorated for 16 games would have been the scored 5 pts less than the top WR - Harrison, and he's a lot younger, McNabb pro-rated for 16 games would have been the #1 QB, and R Williams is a young stud-in-the-making WR in a prolific O, the 11th best WR last year, and in the scoring system we use would have been equivalent to the #8 RB. So I've got three players that score like top 10 RBs and one of the top QBs. While the other owners were going crazy loading up on young RBs (Gore 1.04, Bush 1.05, Maroney 1.10, Addai 2.02, etc) I was able to load up on top scoring players in a non-traditional way. After all, the idea is not to accumulate the most young RBs, it's to outscore the other team. I grabbed McAllister & Norwood later (4.07 and 5.06) to round out my top RBs while the other owners were scrambling to grab WRs - and they'll be adequate or better, but that's all they have to be the way the rest of the team is set up. Then because I could fill my skill positions so early, I was able to draft stud LBs while other were a round or 2 behind, filling their skill positions. How does a LB corps of Bulluck, Urlacher, Witherspoon (could have been Pierce, but I traded out for someone that wanted him badly, allowing me to move up even further in the mid-rounds), & Crowell sound to you? Then while the other owners were knocking each other over for the remaining top LBs, I was able to load up at other positions. Now I know this is one instance and I'm not here to show off, but if I had gone with the herd mentality I could have just ended up mediocre but solid team. Instead I've got what figures to be the top or second best scoring team in the league, plus I've got solid depth and was able to take a couple of flyers later before anyone else could. In especially deep drafts like an IDP draft, the extra picks early on lead to quality throughout the breadth of your team with very little sacrifice at one position. Think differently & optimize your draft. The example above is just the way your draft couold go for you and put you in the position of not only winning the league early on but to be able to build great depth that will keep your team strong for the future. Edited March 12, 2007 by Bronco Billy Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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