Week 16 Gamblers (Anonymous) Thread

[Steeltown Dre]

Feel free to post anything in here about Picks, Advice, Critique or Info. The more accurate information we have at our fingertips, the better off we are.

 

Personally, I have posted 2 types of plays this year. My "system plays" which are derived from a system I have created, and my "posted plays" are either plays in addition to those plays (or at times may fade the system), or "system plays" which I want to alert as plays I think have great value, and want to add more money onto:

 

I will update my system plays and record in the next post. Here are my posted plays:

 

Week 1: 5-0 (Leans posted not played: 3-1)

Week 2: 2-1

Week 3: 4-0

Week 4: 3-1

Week 5: 2-2-1

Week 6: 3-2-1

Week 7: 2-4

Week 8: 1-5

Week 9: 5-6 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 10: 2-1

Week 11: 4-2-1

Week 12: 4-2 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 13: 2-3 (Leans posted 2-0)

Week 14: 1-2 (Leans posted 1-0)

Week 15: 5-4

 

Overall: 45-35-3

Including leans: 55-36-3 (60%)

 

Next I'll update system records and plays for week 16.

[Steeltown Dre]

System Plays Week 16:

 

1. Top ATS predictor has gone 8-7 (53%) this season and has no calculations the past two weeks.

 

This weekend it likes:

 

Indy

NE (warning - I have not played NE and will probably stay away from that game entirely. Too much uncertainty w/ NE games/weather to lay that lumber)

 

The HFA Update ATS Predictor has gone 39-22 this season (64%) including 1-1 last weekend.

 

This week it likes:

 

Cin

Ind

NE (again, same warning - I am not playing NE from my system)

TB

 

2. Top 5 leans each week:

 

Week 3: 4-1

Week 4: 5-0

Week 5: 2-3

Week 6: 3-2

Week 7: 2-3

Week 8: 3-2

Week 9: 4-1

Week 10: 1-4

Week 11: 3-2

Week 12: 4-1

Week 13: 3-2

Week 14: 3-2

Week 15: 2-3 - Note: Last week it wanted me to play NE and I specifically did not and on Sunday I reversed the Ten play and posted that, so instead of 2-3, these went 3-1 last week. However, I will not count the reversal and leave the record at 2-2 for the total count.

 

Total 39-25 (61%)

 

This week:

 

Cin

NE (not playing)

Ind

TB

SD

 

 

3. I have one ATS simulator that is pretty honest, and one that is more biased towards the dogs. I keep track of when both simulators show value for the same team. To date, the system is 38-29-7 (57%) including a very remarkable 4-0 last weekend on the back of some ugly contenders (SF, Mia, NO and Car).

 

This week both systems show value for another group of dogs:

 

Car

Cin

Chi

Buf

Phi

 

4. I have also tracked when I have seen the wrong team favored. In other words, times when my system is showing the dog could actually win the game. In some cases, the dog does win, in other cases he covers, and then of course, there are times he fails to cover.

 

After starting the season 8-3, this system has gone a dreadful 7-13, though it did win on Mia last weekend.

 

This week here's the games the system is showing the wrong team is favored:

 

Cin over Cle

Buf over NYG

 

____________________________________________

 

 

Now, onto the O/U Systems:

 

1. Top Overs predictor has gone 13-0-1 (100%) this season. This weekend, the books have specifically lowered the totals on 3 "potential weather games".

 

Those are: the game in Chi, the game in NE, and the game in Buf

 

I say this because last weekend the books got cleaned up to people who played w/ the weather and took unders in NE, NYG, Cle and Pit. 3-1 on unders. I know the books have set a low total on these games because of that, for the reason that my top overs predictor, which has not been wrong all season, and typically will only alert maybe 1 or 2 games a week at the most, says to take the over in all 3 of those games.

 

It thinks that GB/Chi, which currently is at 39, should be at 46.5

It thinks that Mia/NE, which currently is at 43.5, should be at 49.5

And it thinks that NYG/Buf, which currently is at 33, should be at 40

 

I don't know yet how I will treat these games due to the weather. I know I will not count them against my system record, because I personally have to make adjustments for weather. So if I play any of these overs, I will do it as "personal plays" and do them later in the week. I don't really advise right now on taking unders in these games, as I don't think the weather will be near as bad as it was last Sunday, however I don't know yet what it will be.

 

So for now I am not playing any totals on those 3 games, but know that the books learned from last week and set these low on purpose.

 

2. I also have another Overs predictor which is 16-4 (80%). This weekend it also is being thrown by the weather. It likes overs in:

 

Cle/Cin

GB/Chi

Mia/NE

NYG/Buf

 

Again, I will have to study the weather harder, and have not made any of these plays, nor will I count them against my system record due to the weather situation. I will post again if I think any of these overs are worth taking.

 

3. The best Overs simulator has gone 46-26 this season (64%) including 3-2 last weekend. Here are all Overs leans for this weekend:

 

In addition to the 4 games above:

 

Oak/Jac

Bal/Sea

NYJ/Ten

 

4. The "top plays" from the best Unders simulator have gone 31-20 (61%) including 3-2 last week. This week the top Unders are:

 

Pit/StL

KC/Det

Phi/NO

Atl/Ari

Den/SD

 

 

5. When I combine these 2 simulators and compare each game, there are times that even the Over simulator has a lean to the Under, and sometimes even the Unders simulator has a lean to the Over. When both simulators lean to the same side, I have tracked those plays. The record has been 51-27(65%) including 5-2 last weekend.

 

This weekend we have:

 

Pit/Stl Under

Cle/Cin Over *

GB/Chi Over *

Mia/NE Over *

NYG/Buf Over *

KC/Det Under

Oak/Jac Over

Phi/NO Under

Atl/Ari Under

NYJ/Ten Over

Den/SD Under

 

Remember, the 4 weather games (w/ *) are TBD right now.

[Gdawg]

The CLE/CIN side jumped at me right away DRE, glad to see your system confirms my initial thoughts (with regard to "wrong team favored").

[Steeltown Dre]

The CLE/CIN side jumped at me right away DRE, glad to see your system confirms my initial thoughts (with regard to "wrong team favored").

 

Home dog in Week 16 getting 3 points. You would think the public would be on it, but they are 78% on Cle from what I'm seeing right now.

 

I have to look more at that game, and can't strongly advocate the play right now (may reverse it later), we'll have to see.

 

Cle have been cover machines, and here are the ATS records so far:

 

Team ATS

1 Green Bay 11-2-1

2 Cleveland 11-3-0

3 New England 10-4-0

4 Jacksonville 10-4-0

5 Dallas 9-5-0

6 San Diego 9-5-0

7 Tampa Bay 9-5-0

8 Buffalo 8-5-1

9 Indianapolis 8-6-0

10 N.Y. Giants 8-6-0

11 Seattle 8-6-0

12 Minnesota 7-5-2

13 Arizona 8-6-0

14 Pittsburgh 7-7-0

15 Tennessee 7-7-0

16 Houston 7-7-0

17 Philadelphia 7-7-0

18 Detroit 6-7-1

19 New Orleans 6-8-0

20 Washington 5-7-2

21 Carolina 6-8-0

22 Oakland 6-8-0

23 Atlanta 6-8-0

24 Kansas City 5-8-1

25 N.Y. Jets 5-8-1

26 Miami 4-7-3

27 Chicago 5-9-0

28 Cincinnati 5-9-0

29 St. Louis 5-9-0

30 Denver 4-10-0

31 San Francisco 4-10-0

32 Baltimore 2-12-0

 

Suprise team who has won a lot but not covered: Indy

 

Suprise team who has lost a lot but has covered: no one really. Not like Ten of last year who was 8-8 on the season, but won as the dog in 6 straight to close out the year (lost week 17) to put them at 11-5 ATS.

 

Closest team who has 3 more covers than wins is Atl who is 3-11 SU but 6-8 ATS, but that is obviously a far cry from being a "good bet"

[Steeltown Dre]

I posted this online elsewhere, so I figure I'll share it here. Doesn't really add anything that I didn't cover in my system play post, but anyway:

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Guys, last week's weather thread was very helpful because everyone contributed. Lines dropped like rocks across the weather affected cities, yet 3 out of the 4 games still went under closing lines.

 

This week it won't be that easy.

 

#1 - Books have adjusted their lines (for weather) prior to release.

 

I have my own systems I use each week in addition to other handicapping methods, like many on here.

 

Ignoring weather, I show strong value in Overs in 3 out of the 4 games and slight value in the over in the Cincy game.

 

The reason there is such value is the books dropped the totals earlier prior to release, based solely on weather predictions. As we know, weather can change a lot, but right now, the 4 cities listed in the title of this post are predicted to get inclement weather on Sunday, and the books don't want to get walked over again.

 

Here are the totals I'm predicting without weather, and here are the current lines:

 

GB/Chi, which currently is at 39, should be at 46.5

Mia/NE, which currently is at 43.5, should be at 49.5

NYG/Buf, which currently is at 33, should be at 40

Cle/Cin, which currently is at 43.5, should be at 48.5

 

I won't get too much into my system, but it's been pretty accurate on the season, and for 3 of these games to be off by 5 points or more isn't normal.

 

Last week, the weather obviously affected the lines during the week, but not the opening release. Last week, here's what I saw from the lines. (First number is the line I saw at the time I ran my system around Monday night/Tuesday AM; Second number is the predicted total; Third would be a lean generated by a secondary predictor)

 

Buf/Cle - Line: 45, My line: 45.5, lean on Under

Jac/Pit - Line: 39.5, My line: 43, Play on Over

NYJ/NE - Line: 50.5, My line: 50.5, lean on Under

Was/NYG - Line: 40, My line: 42.5, no lean or play

 

Of course the weather drove the lines down over the week. But the point I'm trying to make is that my predicted line (total) is usually pretty accurate to what Vegas releases on many games.

 

However on those 4 this week, they really took a stand on putting out low totals due to the weather.

 

Any other guys on here who have their own systems, I'd be interested in hearing (if your system usually is pretty good w/ totals) if you think the lines on those 4 games are out of the ordinary low as a result of the weather.

 

#2 - The weather does not look to be as severe as it was last week.

 

No blinding snowstorms like in Cle or super high winds. However, most will see precipitation, and most will see moderate winds.

 

So, the key will be

A - how much the weather actually will affect the games, and

B - Is there any remaining value in the over based on the weather

 

If A is "a lot" then B is "no", and the question to ask yourself: Is there any value in squeezing an under in despite the low number?

If A is "not very much" then B is "yes" and the question to ask yourself: How close to gametime will you wait to watch the weather and bet the over, if the total does not rise?

Edited December 19, 2007 by Steeltown Dre

[whomper]

Dre' any hoops from that 9-0 guy ?

[Steeltown Dre]

Dre' any hoops from that 9-0 guy ?

 

He had Long Beach State last night - which some won at -2.5 and others pushed at -3.

 

Tonight he is on South Carolina, so get it in if you want to tail along.

[Steeltown Dre]

Also, this guy is hot in hoops including 3-0-1 yesterday (a day he said to "tread lightly"). He also said he liked today and tomorrow's schedule. Here are his plays for today, sorry to clutter the NFL thread but here they are:

 

Roberto Ferrigno

4.5-Unit Play. Take #543 Central Michigan (-3) over Wisconsin-Milwaukee (8 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

Here we have two teams headed in opposite directions, with Central Michigan winning four straight – against solid mid-major competition – while UW-M has dropped six straight. Mix in the fact that UW-M just suspended its leading scorer and rebounder and I think there’s some bad karma floating around this undermanned team. The Panthers have dropped six straight ATS overall and at home.

 

3-Unit Play. Take #555 Arizona (-3.5) over UNLV (10 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

I think we’re getting exceptional value here on a Wildcats team that’s already tangled with strong national programs like Kansas, Texas A&M, Illinois, and Virginia. UNLV, on the other hand, has beaten a bunch of third-tier schools, losing by 20 to its only highly regarded opponent (Louisville) this season. Are we walking into another classic Arizona trap? Maybe. But I just don’t think this Rebels team is very good and I think this line is around four- or five-points light.

 

2.5-Unit Play. Take #537 Bradley (+10) over Butler (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

Bradley has lost its last eight trips to Hinkle, and I think they will lose tonight, but I don’t see this team getting run out of the gym against a Butler team that’s still without Pete Campbell. The dog is 4-2 ATS in this series and Bradley is 4-2 ATS against Butler.

 

2-Unit Play. Take #540 South Carolina (-3.5) over Baylor (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

Love Baylor this year. Been cashing in from jump with the Bears and should do well with them in Big 12 play. But this game is all Gamecocks. South Carolina has played six games against Top 90 teams (compared to just three for Baylor) and they’ve gone 4-2 ATS in those games. This is Baylor’s first true road game of the season and they are just 3-8 ATS away after playing three straight home games.

 

1.5-Unit Play. Take #570 Eastern Kentucky (-5) over Tennessee-Martin (7:30 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

In general, home teams in the OVC have had an early edge. Also, I think UT-M is still without Gerald Robinson.

 

1.5-Unit Play. Take #527 UC-Santa Barbara (-4.5) over Ball State (7 p.m., Wednesday, Dec. 19)

We could have an Iona situation here with a broken down Ball State team. I could be foolish for ignoring the many things telling me "no" here, but I also laid off the Ohio State game last night because of that and missed what should have been my GOTW. Go Gauchos.

[rattsass]

In regards to the Bengals game, there are a couple of factors here that going strictly by the numbers can't gauge. First, the Bengals STUNK last week against the horrible 49ers. I'm not sure they have any fight left in them. It sure didn't look like it on Saturday.

 

And of course the Browns can ill afford a loss in this spot. I wouldn't touch the Bengals right now.

[Steeltown Dre]

In regards to the Bengals game, there are a couple of factors here that going strictly by the numbers can't gauge. First, the Bengals STUNK last week against the horrible 49ers. I'm not sure they have any fight left in them. It sure didn't look like it on Saturday.

 

And of course the Browns can ill afford a loss in this spot. I wouldn't touch the Bengals right now.

 

You are 100% right - The system definitely did "struggle" the last couple weeks of the season last year. That is because I don't have anything in there to factor in motivation. Some teams who are out of it will have motivation, others won't. Even in a divisonal game. I played against Cincy last week, and for whatever reasons, it's saying to play on them. As I have already made the play at +3 +101, I will now have to see if I should lay it off. I can get -2.5 for -115 right now, but have not bought the ticket. You are right, Cle needs this game, and Cin can care less after being predicted to finish so strong in the AFC North, they have to be mad. But unmotivated and unorganized seem to be their MO this year.

 

BUT

 

That is what everyone thinks, and everyone is jumping at the chance to lay only 3 against this pathetic Bengals team.

 

Looking back at week 16 games from 98 onwards:

 

Home Dogs w/ 6 wins or fewer facing Road Favs w/ either 9 or 10 wins have gone 16-9 ATS. Not a large sample size, but essentially what this is saying is that teams who are out of the playoffs vs. teams that are still potentially in or are in but fighting for seeding have fared OK overall.

 

When that line is 3.5 or less, the home dog is 7-3 SU and 7-3 ATS (of course)!

 

Factoring that the home dog is off a loss and the road fav is off a win, and the home dog is 9-4-1 ATS.

 

All of this seems to favor Cincy, but again, can you really come to put your money on this team, or should you just stay away?

 

Staying away might be the best move, unless you want to saddle up on the Browns cover machine for one more ride. Personally, I already have the Bengals in, and am looking at possibly getting off the game altogether, but have not made that decision yet.

 

Here are some trends you can find online w/ ease:

 

Browns are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC North.

Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.

Browns are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.

Browns are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC.

Browns are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.

Browns are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.

Browns are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Browns are 5-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Browns are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Browns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games as a favorite.

Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.

 

Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.0.

Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.

Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Bengals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Bengals are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.

Bengals are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in December.

[Steeltown Dre]

Some additional info:

 

If you are thinking Cle only -3 to Cin, this has got to be a "trap", think again.

 

Take a look at Cle on the road this year:

 

They have only been road favorites 3 times prior:

 

At STL by 3

At Bal by 2.5

At NYJ by 3.5

 

So it takes some crappy teams for Cle to be favored on the road, and even then it's only by about a FG, no more. Their record: 3-0 ATS

 

And Cin at home:

 

They have only been home dogs 2 other times at home:

 

vs NE by 8

vs Pit by 4

 

All other home games have been at the lowest a "pickem", otherwise they were favored. Their record: 0-2 ATS

 

So the line is set about where you should expect it for a suprising but solid Cle team coming into a unorganized Cin team.

 

So don't bet Cle because "this line should be 6 or 7". There is no way Vegas would set this line that high.

 

That does not mean I don't want you to take Cle. Right now I'm uncomfortable about having a bet on Cin. But these are some things to consider if you are playing this game.

 

My system is predicting a 24-23 Cin victory here. But again, my system would predict this line if it was week 16 of a 25 week season. It knows that Cin has a worse record than Cle and it knows the cover % of both teams. It sees this as a close game, one that Cin can win, and getting a FG at home in a close game is good.

 

However, from an "outside the box" look at this game, one that is done by a human w/ eyes instead of a machine w/ no senses, this looks like a game where Cin would be lucky to compete. But that's why they call it gambling...

[Steeltown Dre]

FYI, here is Ferrigno's record for those College BBall plays I posted above:

 

Nov. 20: +15 Units (+1500)

Nov. 21: +5 Units (+410)

Nov. 22: -5 Units (-640)

Nov. 23: +10 Units (+925)

Nov. 25: +1 Units (+80)

Nov. 26: +2 Units (+200)

Nov. 27: +10 Units (+980)

Nov. 28: +10.5 Units (+1020)

Nov. 29: +4 Units (+410)

Nov. 30: +0 Units (-25)

Dec. 1: -4 Units (-450)

Dec. 2: +6.5 Units (+650)

Dec. 4: -2 Units (-270)

Dec. 5: +5.5 Units (+535)

Dec. 6: +11.5 Units (+1150)

Dec. 7: +1 Unit (+80)

Dec. 8: +12 Units (+1125)

Dec. 9: +2.5 Units (+250)

Dec. 10: +0.5 Units (+25)

Dec. 11: +3 Units (+270)

Dec. 12: -1 Unit (-110)

Dec. 15: +10.5 Units (+910)

Dec. 16: +1.5 Units (+150)

Dec. 17: +3.5 Units (+335)

Dec. 18: +6 Units (+600)

 

Three-week total: +109.5 Units and +10110!!!!

[Steeltown Dre]

Also, Larry Ness has a 20* Eastern conference total of the month

 

over bulls/wizards

 

confirmed

 

Some other misc hot plays for tonight:

 

BEN BURNS - NHL

Chicago Blackhawks

annihilator---- under sonics

offensive shootout----over blazers

 

C & P EXPERTS 12/19/07

CBB:

 

CENTRAL MICHIGAN -3

ARIZONA -3.5

 

(22-7-1 RUN )

2-0 FRIDAY

2-1 SAT

3-0 SUNDAY

1-1 MONDAY

2-0 TUESDAY

[Steeltown Dre]

I'm posting some of these plays from some hot cappers in all sports, mainly because if some of you are down and want to get a little back during the week, feel free to tail. Pick up some extra for Christmas. But, as always, tailing comes at a price, and just because a guy is on a 22-7 streak or is up 100 units the last month, that does not mean he'll win the game you play. I don't focus on these other sports nearly as much as I do NFL, so I can't comment on any of these plays. But if you play them, I hope they win for you, and I wouldn't post them if the capper was a bad one or a cold one. I see literally a hundred of cards a day (somedays) from various cappers. 80% are mediocre, the other 10% are posted only as fade material, and then there are 10% that are very solid. It still does not mean they will win when you play them. But they do have a record to back it up.

[Gdawg]

FYI, here is Ferrigno's record for those College BBall plays I posted above:

 

Nov. 20: +15 Units (+1500)

Nov. 21: +5 Units (+410)

Nov. 22: -5 Units (-640)

Nov. 23: +10 Units (+925)

Nov. 25: +1 Units (+80)

Nov. 26: +2 Units (+200)

Nov. 27: +10 Units (+980)

Nov. 28: +10.5 Units (+1020)

Nov. 29: +4 Units (+410)

Nov. 30: +0 Units (-25)

Dec. 1: -4 Units (-450)

Dec. 2: +6.5 Units (+650)

Dec. 4: -2 Units (-270)

Dec. 5: +5.5 Units (+535)

Dec. 6: +11.5 Units (+1150)

Dec. 7: +1 Unit (+80)

Dec. 8: +12 Units (+1125)

Dec. 9: +2.5 Units (+250)

Dec. 10: +0.5 Units (+25)

Dec. 11: +3 Units (+270)

Dec. 12: -1 Unit (-110)

Dec. 15: +10.5 Units (+910)

Dec. 16: +1.5 Units (+150)

Dec. 17: +3.5 Units (+335)

Dec. 18: +6 Units (+600)

 

Three-week total: +109.5 Units and +10110!!!!

 

This is the guy to follow with regard to college BBall.

 

Incidentally, a few other guys I follow are also on South Carolina and Bradley tonight.

[Steeltown Dre]

This is the guy to follow with regard to college BBall.

 

Incidentally, a few other guys I follow are also on South Carolina and Bradley tonight.

 

I saw that earlier a few weeks back that you like his plays.

 

Here is Lovell's 20*. Supposedly his record is:

2007-2008 NCCAB

 

Overall 21-8-1 +119 units

20* 1-0 +20 units

10* 13-2 +98 units

5* 7-6-1 +2 units

 

His 20* is: Old Dominion -4

[Gdawg]

I saw that earlier a few weeks back that you like his plays.

 

Here is Lovell's 20*. Supposedly his record is:

2007-2008 NCCAB

 

Overall 21-8-1 +119 units

20* 1-0 +20 units

10* 13-2 +98 units

5* 7-6-1 +2 units

 

His 20* is: Old Dominion -4

 

It never fails...you sing a guy's praises and he has an off night. First time in a while, but Bobbie F was off the mark tonight

[whomper]

This is the guy to follow with regard to college BBall.

 

Incidentally, a few other guys I follow are also on South Carolina and Bradley tonight.

 

 

I hit the half with south carolina but Baylor opened up the 2nd half with a 19-6 run that SC couldnt catch up from..

[Gdawg]

I hit the half with south carolina but Baylor opened up the 2nd half with a 19-6 run that SC couldnt catch up from..

 

Yeah, I was on that one...S. Carolina just folded up; it was ugly.

[Steeltown Dre]

Yep, SC couldn't get out of the gates fast enough in the 2nd. That's what happens when you tail - you're left w/ a sinking feeling of "why did I follow that guy tonight"...

 

I posted those plays last night partly because whopmer was interested in the 9-0 play. If you want me to post some top plays on any particular day, just let me know, and I'll be more than glad to paste some in here. Just like if you want to post a play for any reason and it's not NFL, feel free. But otherwise, I won't just keep posting plays each day (again, unless you want me to) to avoid too much non-NFL clutter.

[Steeltown Dre]

Tonight's game:

 

You've got a Steelers team who is desperate for a win after dropping 2 straight, going on the road to St. Louis, where they have never played before. Steelers are tired and beat up, after playing Jac just 4 days ago. But he Rams are a bad team. Losing their first 8, gameplanning over their bye and winning their next 2, but dropping 3 of their last 4 including 2 in a row.

 

However, even at home, StL has been a tough out for teams of all caliber.

 

After losing to Car to open the season at home by 2 TDs, here's how they have done at home:

 

SF, lost by 1 on a -3 line

Ari, lost by 3 on a +3.5 line

Cle, lost by 7 on a +3 line

Sea, lost by 5 on a +3 line

Atl, won by 12 on a -3 line

GB, lost by 19 on a +7 line

 

Suffice it to say, the Steelers are not in the class of GB right now, and while the rest of their opponents have not been terribly tough or teams that are avg on the road, I will say that losing to Cle and Sea by 7 and 5 respectively isn't too bad for the Rams.

 

Steelers on the road have been pretty poor, though they did struggle where many other teams do as well

 

@ Cle, W 34-7 on a -4.5 line

@ Ari, L 14-21 on a -5.5 line - this game showed everyone a lot about this team, but I will say Ari is a tough place to play. But it was the first glimpe that Pit was not a dominating force

@ Den, L 28-31 on a -4 line - again, Den is a tough place to play, but Den is not a good team this year and Pit lost, simple as that

@ Cin, W 24-13 on a -4 line - Pit plays well in Cin and the Bengals are a bad team

@ NYJ, L 16-19 on a -9 line

@ NE, L on a +10.5 line

 

The Steelers have played down to the level of the teams that were worse than they were (except divisional teams) on the road. Plus, there is a blueprint to beat them, which is pressure on the QB (Ben sacked 2nd most in NFL) and attack the secondary. Having watched a couple of Steelers games recently, they have really struggled in the bad weather/field conditions. It seems like Parker isn't a "mudder" like Bettis was, and the D-Line/LBs don't apply the pressure like they need to in LeBeau's Defense on these bad fields. It really slows everything at the LOS, and they can't get started quickly enough.

 

So in a way, I think the climate controlled dome will be a welcome escape for the Steelers on both sides of the ball, even though it's on 4 days rest.

 

Here's a stat I researched:

 

Team A is a playoff bound team w/ record of either: 9-4, 9-5, 10-3, 10-4 who most likely still need a win in the 15th or 16th week of the season to secure better seeding = Steelers (9-5)

Team B is a team who is out of the playoffs, w/ 5 wins or fewer = Rams (3-11)

Team A and B are from DIFFERENT CONFERENCES, and it is week 15 or 16 (not 17, and not 14 or earlier - AKA - the heart of the playoff push)

 

When team A travels to play AT team B, they are obviously favored because they are better, however they have gone only 2-8 ATS, failing to cover by an avg of 4.7 points. They are 5-5 SU.

 

This dates to 89, so obviously it has not happened very much. But that is the record when it has happened.

 

Looking at the Thursday night games the last 2 seasons (starting the 1st Thurs after TG), Unders have gone 5-2 ATS, but those 2 overs came this year w/ Dal/GB (I had the under) and Was/Chi (I had the over). This will be the 1st time in these games that we have had a large road favorite. In the past 7 games, the home team was always favored and they went 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS.

 

I think this game will be somewhat of a ball control game, and the Steelers will not want to lose. The Rams will want to keep it close, and if they are having success on the ground, I think they will keep that up until they can get a play or two to strike deep in the secondary. Steelers will try to get their running game going, which will open things up for their passing attack. I think they will have more success than in the last few weeks. But I'm not overly confident in selecting either team here. My system has a play on the Under, and is predicting a final of Pit 26, Stl 15

 

This line has not shifted as much as you may think. While some books have it at -9, it's -124 to take the points (+116 to give them). Most other books have 7.5 or 8. Generally a book may force the line to a 9 so that a same game teaser will not tease down to inside a FG. Pinny is a sharp book, so I'm thinking they may think this will be a closer game than it looks, and don't want to lose teasers if people tease Pit to -2 (on a 6 point teaser) and Pit wins by a FG. That's one possiblity, or the other is they want people to take the points, and some avg bettors don't know how valuable that juice really is, and will take +9 -124 and lose when the Steelers win by 10 or more. There are a couple ways to look at it.

 

I'm seeing 63% spread and 55% ML on the Steelers.

 

That's enough monologue from me on this game, what are your thoughts?

[Gdawg]

Yep, SC couldn't get out of the gates fast enough in the 2nd. That's what happens when you tail - you're left w/ a sinking feeling of "why did I follow that guy tonight"...

 

I posted those plays last night partly because whopmer was interested in the 9-0 play. If you want me to post some top plays on any particular day, just let me know, and I'll be more than glad to paste some in here. Just like if you want to post a play for any reason and it's not NFL, feel free. But otherwise, I won't just keep posting plays each day (again, unless you want me to) to avoid too much non-NFL clutter.

 

Works for me, Dre. I'll be glad to chip in too if everyone else wants to see them.

[whomper]

I am always up for some plays from a guy thats hot. Especially in a sport that I dont follow.

[Steeltown Dre]

I am always up for some plays from a guy thats hot. Especially in a sport that I dont follow.

 

OK, I was thinking you or someone else might say that. I know Gdawg can post some too, so if there is anyone really hot, we'll keep our eyes out. The problem is, you post the play from the really hot guy, who is eventually going to lose. Much like that 9-0 guy. The play to get him to 9-0 was a winner as posted, and the play to get him to 9-0-1 would have pushed or won, depending on the line you got, but I didn't post. The I post his next play after calling attention to it, and it lost. But that is going to happen.

 

Granted, every single night there is someting going on - hockey, NBA, NCAAB, NCAA FB, NFL... so it could make this thread twice as long. But, if that means that we've got twice as many winners posted (thinking unrealistically optimistic here) then I'm all for it.

[whomper]

OK, I was thinking you or someone else might say that. I know Gdawg can post some too, so if there is anyone really hot, we'll keep our eyes out. The problem is, you post the play from the really hot guy, who is eventually going to lose. Much like that 9-0 guy. The play to get him to 9-0 was a winner as posted, and the play to get him to 9-0-1 would have pushed or won, depending on the line you got, but I didn't post. The I post his next play after calling attention to it, and it lost. But that is going to happen.

 

Granted, every single night there is someting going on - hockey, NBA, NCAAB, NCAA FB, NFL... so it could make this thread twice as long. But, if that means that we've got twice as many winners posted (thinking unrealistically optimistic here) then I'm all for it.

 

 

Do you want to post 2 threads ?One for non football ? As far as us tailing that guy and him going a little cold last night I think we all have the understanding that there is never hard feelings when a posted play doesnt come through. We all appreciate the insight and goal here and thats for all of us to disect these games and try and make some coin together. I have been pretty hot with those 1st period unders in the nhl and the minute GDawg tailed me I dropped 2. ( I still feel bad about that )We can start a nonfootball thread over in the nonfootball forum . Or if we dont want to lose focus we can just continue what we do in football and drop an occasional tip in once in a while. Either way you guys are all good in my book and this thread is one of my favorites.

Edited December 20, 2007 by whomper