who has moved into first round so far?

[MTSuper7]

It's Josh actually, not John.

 

I'l ltake Brady in the first but that's because I get to keep AP as my 4th round choice. If I can get Brady and Moss in rounds 1&2 plus a RB in round 3 to go with AP in round 4 I will be well on my way to domination if 2008 pans out to be like 2007.

 

Fixed

[dirtdickens]

I would feel a lot more comfortable taking Moss or Brady then being stuck with Gore or LJ at 7-9. Until those two teams fix their lines those backs are gonna be Shuan Alexander.

[piratesownninjas]

Really? What kind of league are you in that allows points for yards

 

Sorry, get sarcastic with me, I return the favor. And I thought he was initially talking about TDs, my bad.

 

 

Kick back turbo, I wasn't being sarcastic. I apologize for trying to answer your question.

bet who? me? And not much of a risk on your part considering Gore hasnt reached double digits in TDs whereas Barber has had 16 & 12

Where was I sarcastic in saying you get points for yards and receptions?

 

 

 

 

I would feel a lot more comfortable taking Moss or Brady then being stuck with Gore or LJ at 7-9. Until those two teams fix their lines those backs are gonna be Shuan Alexander.

Frank Gore didn't really have a great line two years ago, but had somewhat consistent qb play and a great OC. Gore finished the year strong and they have an actual OC in play now. As far as LJ being the next Alexander, I disagree with that as well. Alexander has always been soft, where as LJ runs with absolute anger.

Edited March 6, 2008 by piratesownninjas

[MTSuper7]

I would feel a lot more comfortable taking Moss or Brady then being stuck with Gore or LJ at 7-9. Until those two teams fix their lines those backs are gonna be Shuan Alexander.

 

Mid-round picks are tough - there will be a drop off point after LT, AP, SJax, Westbrook and Addai are gone (am I forgetting someone in this group?) where the decision has to be made: Do I draft a RB here (Portis, MBIII, Ryan Grant, etc.) or nab the #1 WR or QB on the board? At this point, I think I could justify Randy Moss at 1.06. Who might that leave me with at 2.07? Rudi? Fast Willie? MJD? Ronnie Brown? Brandon Jacobs? Reggie (gulp) Bush? I'd prefer a draft that starts Randy Moss / Maurice Jones-Drew than, say, Marion Barber III / Andre Johnson.

[dirtdickens]

Kick back turbo, I wasn't being sarcastic. I apologize for trying to answer your question.

 

Where was I sarcastic in saying you get points for yards and receptions?

Frank Gore didn't really have a great line two years ago, but had somewhat consistent qb play and a great OC. Gore finished the year strong and they have an actual OC in play now. As far as LJ being the next Alexander, I disagree with that as well. Alexander has always been soft, where as LJ runs with absolute anger.

 

 

LJ can run with anger all he wants. He has a declining line, no consistent QB and no real OC. Gore did finish stronger than he started, but look how bad it was in the begining. A guys running style really doesn't matter to me as much as having a line in front of them. Hense I picked Grant and BarberIII higher than some would like, but they have a better chance than LJ and Gore. Same can be said for McGahee, line-QB-OC, you are making my points for me.

Edited March 6, 2008 by dirtdickens

[piratesownninjas]

LJ can run with anger all he wants. He has a declining line, no consistent QB and no real OC. Gore did finish stronger than he started, but look how bad it was in the begining. A guys running style really doesn't matter to me as much as having a line in front of them. Hense I picked Grant and BarberIII higher than some would like, but they have a better chance than those two guys. Same can be said for McGahee, you are making my points for me.

And you're going to be disappointed in Ryan Grant as his stock plummeted with the retirement of Favre. You have man love for Barber, and refuse to take on the idea that his role will not change much the next year. I like Barber a lot, but I think what we saw from him last year was his ceiling. With limited touches in comparison to those that Larry Johnson and Frank Gore and I think they both outscore Barber. I don't understand how Gore's start of the season factors into your opinion, but his strong finish doesn't. Usually the last 6 weeks of the season is a good indication as to what to expect the following year. Larry Johnson's line sucked two years ago but he was still a monster. This year he'll come in time for TC and be healthy. I don't buy into LJ being done at all.

[dirtdickens]

I am not saying LJ is done for good. This season he won't be a 1st round pick unless they get him some serious help. No line, no QB and an OC that will give him the ball 300 times with no help. Gore finished strong and that is normally an indicator for next year, yes, but he has a new OC and it is Mr. Fired from my last job for not running, Mike Martz. He still has a crap line and no qb. You can't use the QB aruement against Grant and not against McGahee and LJ.

[MTSuper7]

You can say "buyer beware" about all of these guys you've been discussing (LJ, Ryan Grant, Frank Gore, MB III)... There is no question that LJ will probably have the most opportunities out of these guys, so he has to be considered less of a risk (assuming he is healthy). After what Mike Martz did to Kevin Jones' value last year, Frank Gore is a HUGE question mark. I'm not sure how anyone can feel confident that Ryan Grant will be a top producer in GB - Favre's departure just feels like it leaves too huge a hole there. I'd have to say the jury is out on MB III until we see what sort of moves Dallas makes in the draft and free agency. But chances are good MB III won't be an every down back like LT, SJax, LJ, etc. which makes him less valuable overall.

[piratesownninjas]

I am not saying LJ is done for good. This season he won't be a 1st round pick unless they get him some serious help. No line, no QB and an OC that will give him the ball 300 times with no help. Gore finished strong and that is normally an indicator for next year, yes, but he has a new OC and it is Mr. Fired from my last job for not running, Mike Martz. He still has a crap line and no qb. You can't use the QB aruement against Grant and not against McGahee and LJ.

Larry Johnson didnt have a good quarterback, line or an OC two years ago either. What I'm suggesting is that Johnson's drop off and injuries last year were from his skipping training camp and not ever getting truly into game shape. That won't be the case this year.

As far as Mike Martz not running this year... There is a hugh difference between Frank Gore and Kevin Jones. Between Issac Bruce/Darrell Jackson and Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. Martz could attempt to throw the ball every down because he had the people who could pull it off and a back that was never fully healthy. The idea that Martz won't utilize Gore doesn't hold much water with me. Look at what Kevin Jones did two years ago when healthy in Martz system. Expect Gore's reception totals to go way up.

And finally telling me I can't use the qb argument for McGahee and Larry Johnson...

Willis McGahee and Larry Johnson are far better running backs and athlete's. Ryan Grant is a pretty good player, but nowhere near the other two that you mentioned. He happened to play in an offense that had three strong receivers, one of the all time greats at quarterback and a coach that would spread it out. We've seen that McGahee and Larry Johnson can produce numbers with all the attention on them, but that's because they are ubber talented. Ryan Grant on the other hand, isn't as talented and happened to play in a system with great talent around him. That systems ringleader just went home.

[Charles]

I agree with the statement that Gore's receptions will go way up.

 

I will also reiterate that Barber will only be effective if he's paired with a slasher type back to carry the ball 10-15 times...think '06 Saints w/ McAllister and rookie Bush. Barber can be happy with his role as "starter" but for the scheme to work, Dallas will need to have a replacement for Jones.

[fanofnobody]

Mike Martz is kryptonite to fantasy RBs. Only once since 2000 has any of his teams finished in the top half of the NFL in rushing. Granted he hasnt had much to work with but heres where his teams have ranked in rushing offense from '07-'02: 31st, 32nd, 22nd, 25th, 30th, 30th. Notice any trends?

[Big John]

Mike Martz is kryptonite to fantasy RBs. Only once since 2000 has any of his teams finished in the top half of the NFL in rushing. Granted he hasnt had much to work with but heres where his teams have ranked in rushing offense from '07-'02: 31st, 32nd, 22nd, 25th, 30th, 30th. Notice any trends?

Marshall Faulk's receiving stats need to be added.

[fanofnobody]

Marshall Faulk's receiving stats need to be added.

Eh, thats not really fair. Martz inherited one of the greatest, if not the, pass catcing RBs of all time. He would have been fired on the spot had he not gotten Faulk the ball in some fashion. Its interesting though that the year after Martz left, Steven Jackson exploded onto the scene. Now if Detroits running game blows up this year, we'll know it was Martz holding them back..... yeah right, like that'll happen. But seriously, Martz is as clueless with what to do with a stud RB as a lesbian with a penis.

Edited March 7, 2008 by fanofnobody

[keggerz]

I dont remember who(cue big john) but some guy was here last year saying that Brady would be the consensus #1 pick in fantasy drafts this yr....i am not a betting man but i think the number i tossed out at him was $100 that brady would not be the consensus #1 Fantasy Pick....shockingly he never responded

 

 

also fwiw(i know someone touched on the differences)

 

Manning after his record setting year did NOT throw for 30+

2006-2007 is the only time manning has ever had back to back 30+ TD yrs(4 times total with 30 or more TDs)

 

Marino after his record setting year threw exactly 30TDs and then followed that up wtih a 44 TD campaign

outside of that 3 yr span Marino NEVER had any other back to back 30 TD seasons

 

Favre had 5 consecutive 30+ TD seasons and later when back to back in 03-04

 

Brady, this was the first yr he EVER eclipsed 30 TDs...does he have the weapons to do it again? sure

but so has Manning and Marino....What Favre did is pretty much incredible(without looking, i doubt any other QB has ever had that many consecutive 30+ TD Seasons)

 

Moon never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Montana never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Elway never had 30 TDs in a season

 

Steve Young never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Now I know that times and schemes have changed but that doesnt change the fact that throwing for 30+ TDs is something that can be taken for granted

 

I guess if one thinks Brady is gonna replicate something like Marino or Favre did then what can I say....I just think that the %'s are probably against Tom going for 30+ again

Edited March 7, 2008 by keggerz

[Big John]

I dont remember who(cue big john) but some guy was here last year saying that Brady would be the consensus #1 pick in fantasy drafts this yr....i am not a betting man but i think the number i tossed out at him was $100 that brady would not be the consensus #1 Fantasy Pick....shockingly he never responded

JAYBLACK with Double Agent supporting him.

[fanofnobody]

I dont remember who(cue big john) but some guy was here last year saying that Brady would be the consensus #1 pick in fantasy drafts this yr....i am not a betting man but i think the number i tossed out at him was $100 that brady would not be the consensus #1 Fantasy Pick....shockingly he never responded

also fwiw(i know someone touched on the differences)

 

Manning after his record setting year did NOT throw for 30+

2006-2007 is the only time manning has ever had back to back 30+ TD yrs(4 times total with 30 or more TDs)

 

Marino after his record setting year threw exactly 30TDs and then followed that up wtih a 44 TD campaign

outside of that 3 yr span Marino NEVER had any other back to back 30 TD seasons

 

Favre had 5 consecutive 30+ TD seasons and later when back to back in 03-04

 

Brady, this was the first yr he EVER eclipsed 30 TDs...does he have the weapons to do it again? sure

but so has Manning and Marino....What Favre did is pretty much incredible(without looking, i doubt any other QB has ever had that many consecutive 30+ TD Seasons)

 

Moon never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Montana never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Elway never had 30 TDs in a season

 

Steve Young never had consecutive 30 TD seasons

 

Now I know that times and schemes have changed but that doesnt change the fact that throwing for 30+ TDs is something that can be taken for granted

 

I guess if one thinks Brady is gonna replicate something like Marino or Favre did then what can I say....I just think that the %'s are probably against Tom going for 30+ again

You are overlooking that while record setting performances are rarely duplicated in consecutive years, league leading performances arent as uncommon. After LTs record setting year in '06, he was also the #1 fantasy back the following year. After Gates record setting year in '05, he was also the #1 fantasy TE the next year. After Mannings 04 season, he was the #2 fantasy QB the following season. For the most thing, the only thing that has slowed down recored setters from duplicating league leading performances is injury (Alexander, Holmes, Faulk)

 

My point was, that no one expects him to duplicate his #s, but I do expect him to be the #1 fantasy QB. The only thing that could diminish his value is if there are 4-5 QBs that have 30+ TDs again next year. Although I doubt guys like Roethlisberger & Anderson are going to be able to match their '07 #s.

Edited March 7, 2008 by fanofnobody

[keggerz]

You are overlooking that while record setting performances are rarely duplicated in consecutive years, league leading performances arent as uncommon. After LTs record setting year in '06, he was also the #1 fantasy back the following year. After Gates record setting year in '05, he was also the #1 fantasy TE the next year. After Mannings 04 season, he was the #2 fantasy QB the following season. For the most thing, the only thing that has slowed down recored setters from duplicating league leading performances is injury (Alexander, Holmes, Faulk)

 

My point was, that no one expects him to duplicate his #s, but I do expect him to be the #1 fantasy QB. The only thing that could diminish his value is if there are 4-5 QBs that have 30+ TDs again next year. Although I doubt guys like Roethlisberger & Anderson are going to be able to match their '07 #s.

my point was more to the fact that I think people are going to be looking for numbers like last yr....and with regards to what you are saying about being the #1...to me just being the #1 QB isnt going to warrant being a 1st round pick. But hey I dont play in any Re-Draft leagues and only have one start up dynasty that I am doing this yr(I hope someone takes brady in round 1 there but they are savvy vets and that wont happen) so for the most part where he and others go in drafts dont affect me.

[fanofnobody]

my point was more to the fact that I think people are going to be looking for numbers like last yr....and with regards to what you are saying about being the #1...to me just being the #1 QB isnt going to warrant being a 1st round pick. But hey I dont play in any Re-Draft leagues and only have one start up dynasty that I am doing this yr(I hope someone takes brady in round 1 there but they are savvy vets and that wont happen) so for the most part where he and others go in drafts dont affect me.

Well then those people arent very realistic. Although I think its possible Brady can come close to his #s from last year, I wouldnt bank on it.

 

my point was more to the fact that I think people are going to be looking for numbers like last yr....and with regards to what you are saying about being the #1...to me just being the #1 QB isnt going to warrant being a 1st round pick. But hey I dont play in any Re-Draft leagues and only have one start up dynasty that I am doing this yr(I hope someone takes brady in round 1 there but they are savvy vets and that wont happen) so for the most part where he and others go in drafts dont affect me.

And as for that, like i said, if there are another 4-5 guys with 30+ TDs next year, then obviously Bradys value goes down. But like I said, I really dont expect guys like Anderson & Big Ben to have the years they did last year, also Favre is gone so theres another 30 TD-QB gone. In the end, I thnk there will only be 2 or 3 30+ QBs.

[keggerz]

Well then those people arent very realistic. Although I think its possible Brady can come close to his #s from last year, I wouldnt bank on it.

And as for that, like i said, if there are another 4-5 guys with 30+ TDs next year, then obviously Bradys value goes down. But like I said, I really dont expect guys like Anderson & Big Ben to have the years they did last year, also Favre is gone so theres another 30 TD-QB gone. In the end, I thnk there will only be 2 or 3 30+ QBs.

as a whole it is pretty safe to say that last yr was far from the norm with regards to QB scoring

[fanofnobody]

as a whole it is pretty safe to say that last yr was far from the norm with regards to QB scoring

I agree 100%. And thats why, if you believe Brady will throw at least 35, he is a 1st round value. I have the misfortune of being in longstanding leagues that have a high GM turnover rate each year, so I dont have the luxury of sitting back and rest on my keepers like you and most on here, so I have the ability to look at the risk-reward on an annual basis.

[MTSuper7]

The beauty is that in every FFL league I've ever been in, there is always one guy who reaches too early for a QB hoping for big numbers comparable to that player's previous season. Peyton Manning went #2 overall in one of my leagues in 2005. I guarantee Brady will go in the first round of many drafts next year, possibly early-mid 1st round. I'll probably even talk him up in my locals like I plan on drafting him early just to get someone to buy before they should.

[piratesownninjas]

Mike Martz is kryptonite to fantasy RBs. Only once since 2000 has any of his teams finished in the top half of the NFL in rushing. Granted he hasnt had much to work with but heres where his teams have ranked in rushing offense from '07-'02: 31st, 32nd, 22nd, 25th, 30th, 30th. Notice any trends?

You're manipulating the stats to fit what you're saying instead of looking at the stats as a whole. Look what Kevin Jones did in 2006 before his foot injury... His reception totals added in, he was a top 10, if not higher back in the league. My 06 MFL site is down right now, but as soon as it's up, I'll post his ppg totals.

In 12 games, he had 181 carries for 689 yards and 6 touchdowns which is roughly 57 yards a game, and 1/2 a td a game... Which averages out to a little over 912 rushing yards and 8 td's in a full season... Not great, but if we were to completely disregard his receiving totals, you might have a point...

In those 12 games he had 61 receptions for 520 yards and 2 td's. Which if we were to average that out per game, then put that average to a full season, Kevin Jones was on pace for 1,612 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 81 receptions. Say what you will, but those numbers don't lie. One last thing, if Kevin Jones could put up those numbers, what could Frank Gore do?

[fanofnobody]

You're manipulating the stats to fit what you're saying instead of looking at the stats as a whole. Look what Kevin Jones did in 2006 before his foot injury... His reception totals added in, he was a top 10, if not higher back in the league. My 06 MFL site is down right now, but as soon as it's up, I'll post his ppg totals.

In 12 games, he had 181 carries for 689 yards and 6 touchdowns which is roughly 57 yards a game, and 1/2 a td a game... Which averages out to a little over 912 rushing yards and 8 td's in a full season... Not great, but if we were to completely disregard his receiving totals, you might have a point...

In those 12 games he had 61 receptions for 520 yards and 2 td's. Which if we were to average that out per game, then put that average to a full season, Kevin Jones was on pace for 1,612 yards, 11 touchdowns, and 81 receptions. Say what you will, but those numbers don't lie. One last thing, if Kevin Jones could put up those numbers, what could Frank Gore do?

Of the 5 years I showed you, you could only find one good year, and even that year you had to "forecast" a good year (and based on your projections, KJ would have wound up around the 12th rated RB, not great by any means). Fact is, you cant make an argument based on "projected" stats. Players wear down, and KJ is a prime example of that type of player. And as for his receptions, in 9 of his 12 games he would have failed to score a single fantasy point via reception, so I wouldnt say I was manilpulating his stats, only pointing out the relevant ones (banking on KJ for reception points is like banking on LT's passing TDs, yeah they happen, but its not something you plan on)