who has moved into first round so far?

[dirtdickens]

With Moss signing I am begining to believe Moss and Brady will go round 1. Ryan Grant should stay in the first even with Favre gone. I think Thomas could make some noise if the Jets select Jake Long. Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Woody and Long makes a nice line to rub behind. Barber3 is in the top 8 picks. Jamal Lewis is in the last picks.

Falling out is Michael Turner. What makes him unique is that he was a sure fire 1st round guy and he destroyed his value along with anything Jerious Norwood was going to do. Killed two birds with one stone there. MJD won't reach round one in my mind because of Fred coming on strong. Fast Willie? Larry johnson? Frank Gore? I think all these work horses falling apart will create a run on wr early on.

 

My round 1

LT

AD

Westy

Addai

SJax

Grant

Barber3

Moss

LJ

Gore

MJD

Brady

[The Wolf]

With Moss signing I am begining to believe Moss and Brady will go round 1. Ryan Grant should stay in the first even with Favre gone. I think Thomas could make some noise if the Jets select Jake Long. Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Woody and Long makes a nice line to rub behind. Barber3 is in the top 8 picks. Jamal Lewis is in the last picks.

Falling out is Michael Turner. What makes him unique is that he was a sure fire 1st round guy and he destroyed his value along with anything Jerious Norwood was going to do. Killed two birds with one stone there. MJD won't reach round one in my mind because of Fred coming on strong. Fast Willie? Larry johnson? Frank Gore? I think all these work horses falling apart will create a run on wr early on.

 

My round 1

LT

AD

Westy

Addai

SJax

Grant

Barber3

Moss

LJ

Gore

MJD

Brady

 

Long will not be there at #6 for the Jets to take and since they signed Woody for the RT spot, the team knows it as well. If the Jets take McFadden, it will cut into T. Jones' value.

[piratesownninjas]

With Moss signing I am begining to believe Moss and Brady will go round 1. Ryan Grant should stay in the first even with Favre gone. I think Thomas could make some noise if the Jets select Jake Long. Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Woody and Long makes a nice line to rub behind. Barber3 is in the top 8 picks. Jamal Lewis is in the last picks.

Falling out is Michael Turner. What makes him unique is that he was a sure fire 1st round guy and he destroyed his value along with anything Jerious Norwood was going to do. Killed two birds with one stone there. MJD won't reach round one in my mind because of Fred coming on strong. Fast Willie? Larry johnson? Frank Gore? I think all these work horses falling apart will create a run on wr early on.

 

My round 1

LT

AD

Westy

Addai

SJax

Grant

Barber3

Moss

LJ

Gore

MJD

Brady

I can't really say I agree with the majority of your analysis. What made Ryan Grant so attractive as a pick was the system and the talent around him. The league respected Favre's arm. Teams are going to try and shut down the run and see what Rodgers does. Until Rodgers proves himself, Grant isn't a first round. Marion Barber, who I like a lot, isn't a top ten back, as he's not going to be a workhorse. He'll continue to split time, but I think last years performance is close to where his ceiling is.

Your analysis of Michael Turner falling out of the first round is a joke, as he shouldn't have been a first round pick in the first place. He never stood any chance of going to a team where he wouldn't split time in some case.

[gasface]

yes, I don't see turner being a first round pick but not due to being on atlanta

he'll still get as many touches as 80% of the other starting backs in the league

 

He could have probably landed in a few better places but at best he would have been an early 2nd rounder

he'll probably go mid to late 2nd in most drafts

[Giants56]

With Moss signing I am begining to believe Moss and Brady will go round 1. Ryan Grant should stay in the first even with Favre gone. I think Thomas could make some noise if the Jets select Jake Long. Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Woody and Long makes a nice line to rub behind. Barber3 is in the top 8 picks. Jamal Lewis is in the last picks.

Falling out is Michael Turner. What makes him unique is that he was a sure fire 1st round guy and he destroyed his value along with anything Jerious Norwood was going to do. Killed two birds with one stone there. MJD won't reach round one in my mind because of Fred coming on strong. Fast Willie? Larry johnson? Frank Gore? I think all these work horses falling apart will create a run on wr early on.

 

My round 1

LT

AD

Westy

Addai

SJax

Grant

Barber3

Moss

LJ

Gore

MJD

Brady

 

I'm not sure I want to draft a guy who is rubbing behind his offensive line.

[dirtdickens]

I can't really say I agree with the majority of your analysis. What made Ryan Grant so attractive as a pick was the system and the talent around him. The league respected Favre's arm. Teams are going to try and shut down the run and see what Rodgers does. Until Rodgers proves himself, Grant isn't a first round. Marion Barber, who I like a lot, isn't a top ten back, as he's not going to be a workhorse. He'll continue to split time, but I think last years performance is close to where his ceiling is.

Your analysis of Michael Turner falling out of the first round is a joke, as he shouldn't have been a first round pick in the first place. He never stood any chance of going to a team where he wouldn't split time in some case.

 

Grant is attractive because of the lack of workhorse backs left in the league. The same arguement you made about Turner can be made for Grant, and his surrounding players are head and shoulders better than Atlanta's. How do you figure Barber won't be a workhorse? Jones is gone and unless they draft Felix Jones, he will get a ton of carries. The line about Turner was more towards his potential of being a top back. If he would have signed with any team but about 5 of them he would have been a first rounder, like most people were counting on. With the ammount of backs splitting time I would consider the guys I listed to be pretty accurate.

Just out of curiosity who do you rank ahead of Barber?

Edited March 6, 2008 by dirtdickens

[Charles]

Grant is attractive because of the lack of workhorse backs left in the league. The same arguement you made about Turner can be made for Grant, and his surrounding players are head and shoulders better than Atlanta's. How do you figure Barber won't be a workhorse? Jones is gone and unless they draft Felix Jones, he will get a ton of carries. The line about Turner was more towards his potential of being a top back. If he would have signed with any team but about 5 of them he would have been a first rounder, like most people were counting on. With the ammount of backs splitting time I would consider the guys I listed to be pretty accurate.

Just out of curiosity who do you rank ahead of Barber?

Dallas will most likely draft a RB with one of it's first round picks. There's been talk of them signing FA Tatum Bell, as well. Julius Jones is out for sure, but there will be someone to take his place as the Lightning to MBIII's Thunder. No way he carries the load himself. And being a fan of the Boys (not to mention a fan of Barber's), I wouldn't want him to either.

[Robash]

i could dig grabbibg Brady at the 1.12 and taking Ronnine Brown on the swing at 2.1

 

am i missing something as to why Ronnie Brown wasnt on that list?

[xtra]

i could dig grabbibg Brady at the 1.12 and taking Ronnine Brown on the swing at 2.1

 

am i missing something as to why Ronnie Brown wasnt on that list?

 

I havent paid attention to any updates,But I would say it is because of his knee and another new system.

Edited March 6, 2008 by xtra

[fanofnobody]

With Moss signing I am begining to believe Moss and Brady will go round 1. Ryan Grant should stay in the first even with Favre gone. I think Thomas could make some noise if the Jets select Jake Long. Ferguson, Faneca, Mangold, Woody and Long makes a nice line to rub behind. Barber3 is in the top 8 picks. Jamal Lewis is in the last picks.

Falling out is Michael Turner. What makes him unique is that he was a sure fire 1st round guy and he destroyed his value along with anything Jerious Norwood was going to do. Killed two birds with one stone there. MJD won't reach round one in my mind because of Fred coming on strong. Fast Willie? Larry johnson? Frank Gore? I think all these work horses falling apart will create a run on wr early on.

 

My round 1

LT

AD

Westy

Addai

SJax

Grant

Barber3

Moss

LJ

Gore

MJD

Brady

I think you have Addai to highly rated. He seriously wore down last year, and I wont be surprised if the Colts get him help, moreso than Keith was last year. I've never had a QB ranked in the top 10, but I'd have to put Brady at around 5 just because he is easily going to get 35 TDs, which puts him in the overall top 5. Also, I'd bump Grant down the list, I really dont think he is going to be able to keep pace with his 2nd half of last year. Personally, I like Ronnie Brown to come back and finish what he started last year. Also, FWP & TO should get some love in there.

[Guest Chappy]

I think you have Addai to highly rated. He seriously wore down last year, and I wont be surprised if the Colts get him help, moreso than Keith was last year. I've never had a QB ranked in the top 10, but I'd have to put Brady at around 5 just because he is easily going to get 35 TDs, which puts him in the overall top 5. Also, I'd bump Grant down the list, I really dont think he is going to be able to keep pace with his 2nd half of last year. Personally, I like Ronnie Brown to come back and finish what he started last year. Also, FWP & TO should get some love in there.

 

You know in the past I've always thought that there's no way that a QB should be taken in the 1st round of a standard scoring fantasy draft. However, after this year, and seeing what Brady has accomplished especially compared to the rest of the QBs, you'd have to give it some serious consideration. Brady scored about 80 points more then the 2nd highest fantasy player, Randy Moss and 90 points more than the highest scoring RB, Brian Westbrook. Brady also scored slightly more than 80 points more than the #2 QB, Tony Romo. So going by last year's numbers if you pass on Addai at #5 and take Brady instead, you gain more than 185 points on the season. Then you could grab 2 RBs in the 2nd and 3rd round or go RB/WR and you'd be almost guaranteed to be ahead of the game than if you had taken a RB like Addai and followed that up with another RB or WR in the 2nd and 3rd because of the advantage you'd have with Brady.

 

This is something I will definitely be looking into as this offseason wears on and my draft positions get decided this summer. Another interesting scenerio would be is to take a RB early and then try to draft Romo as he was the 2nd highest rated QB. The drop after Brady was pretty steep and then the drop after Romo was decent as well. Brees was #3 and he was almost 120 points behind Brady and almost 40 points behind Romo. After Romo, Brees was among a group of 7 QBs that were within about 30 points of each other. Then there was another drop-off of about 30 points to the next Tier of QBs. I know things always change and there is bound to be one of the QBs in that bunch of 7 that perform better than last year and could join the elite, along with the fact that Brady most likely won't post numbers like that again (but close). Brees, P. Manning, Big Ben, McNabb- (completely healthy and especially if they bring in a Top Tier WR?) And if that happens, maybe it's worth waiting and taking a shot on one of these guys, hoping for that BIG year.

 

So many questions and intriguing possibilities and that's what makes FF so great!!!

[dirtdickens]

Brown is out of the first few rounds due to his injury. He could very well pop back in later in the year, but most backs take more than a year to recover from that. I too have considered Brady in round one, but the Manning arguement always pops into my head. What if New York put the blue print on how to stop the Pats out and teams slow him down. I know most teams don't have the personel to do what the Ravens and Giants do, but it happened to the Colts. I am really thinking about picking low and grabbing Moss and TO. Does anyone think the WRs can stay the course they set last season?

I agree on the Addai ranking, but I think most people would grab him there on potential. I looked at some numbers last week and my #3 pick Portis scored almost identical numbers to Addai. This year should be interesting as nearly every pick, high, mid and low, has potential.

 

In my league I could really see myself picking around 9 and getting Moss, TO and Andre Johnson in the first three rounds. Where do people see Johnson going?

 

In a standard scoring league what are some people thinking the first round shapes up like?

[fanofnobody]

You know in the past I've always thought that there's no way that a QB should be taken in the 1st round of a standard scoring fantasy draft. However, after this year, and seeing what Brady has accomplished especially compared to the rest of the QBs, you'd have to give it some serious consideration. Brady scored about 80 points more then the 2nd highest fantasy player, Randy Moss and 90 points more than the highest scoring RB, Brian Westbrook. Brady also scored slightly more than 80 points more than the #2 QB, Tony Romo. So going by last year's numbers if you pass on Addai at #5 and take Brady instead, you gain more than 185 points on the season. Then you could grab 2 RBs in the 2nd and 3rd round or go RB/WR and you'd be almost guaranteed to be ahead of the game than if you had taken a RB like Addai and followed that up with another RB or WR in the 2nd and 3rd because of the advantage you'd have with Brady.

 

This is something I will definitely be looking into as this offseason wears on and my draft positions get decided this summer. Another interesting scenerio would be is to take a RB early and then try to draft Romo as he was the 2nd highest rated QB. The drop after Brady was pretty steep and then the drop after Romo was decent as well. Brees was #3 and he was almost 120 points behind Brady and almost 40 points behind Romo. After Romo, Brees was among a group of 7 QBs that were within about 30 points of each other. Then there was another drop-off of about 30 points to the next Tier of QBs. I know things always change and there is bound to be one of the QBs in that bunch of 7 that perform better than last year and could join the elite, along with the fact that Brady most likely won't post numbers like that again (but close). Brees, P. Manning, Big Ben, McNabb- (completely healthy and especially if they bring in a Top Tier WR?) And if that happens, maybe it's worth waiting and taking a shot on one of these guys, hoping for that BIG year.

 

So many questions and intriguing possibilities and that's what makes FF so great!!!

I had this debate with some other people on another MB. There are 2 reasons why taking Brady in the first is a smart investment:

 

1, People always use the "Look at Mannings dropoff after his '04 season" rationale for not overpaying for Brady. Well, the 2 players are in very different situations. First off, Manning had essentially the same cast around him in '04 that he had in '03. Nothing changed except the offensive philosophy. The next year, with the same cast, Mannings TDs nose-dived to 28. On the other hand, Brady had already led the league in yards & TDs in seasons before last year, all while doing it with 1-1000 yard reciever in 8 years. Now infuse arguably the 2nd best WR of all time, and one of the best possession receivers in the NFL. And as far as the Pats offensive philosophy, do you think BB is going to be humbled or re-evalutae his play calling because of the SB outcome? While I dont think he is going to throw 50 again, I do expect him to throw at least 35 which would be the 4th highest total in the past 8 years.

 

2, Again, he probably wont have a record setting year again, he probably will have a league-leading performance. Anytime you can acquire the guy that is going to lead the entire NFL in TDs, you should jump on it. And Brady is the closest to a sure thing, outside of anyone named Tomlinson.

Edited March 6, 2008 by fanofnobody

[piratesownninjas]

How do you figure Barber won't be a workhorse?

Jones is gone and unless they draft Felix Jones, he will get a ton of carries.

Because I watched the playoff game and how bad he wore down later in the game. Barber is extremely talented, but nowhere near a 300 carry workhorse back. The days of the workhorse are gone, unless you have Tomlinson, Westbrook or Jackson. Furthermore, there are a lot of runningbacks in this draft, why is Felix Jones the only back they can take?

 

The line about Turner was more towards his potential of being a top back. If he would have signed with any team but about 5 of them he would have been a first rounder, like most people were counting on.

You're insane. There are only 3-5 teams that have a dire need for a runningback, and I'm fairly certain that 3-4 of those teams would have been in your 5 teams he shouldn't go to. He can't do anything if he goes to a team that doesn't have a need. And who are most people that you're referring to? I've been driving the Michael Turner bandwagon since he was drafted, and I can assure you that up until the 06 season, it was a lonely bandwagon. Whoever was counting on that are misinformed.

 

With the ammount of backs splitting time I would consider the guys I listed to be pretty accurate.

Just out of curiosity who do you rank ahead of Barber?

Westbrook

Tomlinson

Jackson

Peterson

Addai

Portis

Gore

L. Johnson

McGahee

Ronnie Brown

Then a toss up with Jamal Lewis and Marion Barber. If Barber was to be a workhorse back why would Dallas be showing so much interest in runningbacks in the draft? Why does every local radio station in Dallas say the same thing, that Barber isn't a 20-25 touch a game back? It's not just me that says and thinks this.

You can make an argument for him being ahead of Ronnie Brown, but the other guys will get way more opportunities than Barber.

 

Brown is out of the first few rounds due to his injury. He could very well pop back in later in the year, but most backs take more than a year to recover from that.

He only tore his ACL and nothing else. He's already well ahead of schedule and running at full speed.

[dirtdickens]

I agree with you about Brady. I wouldn't even consider taking a qb that high, but he may be the exception. I don't really know what to think of the offensive philosophy next year as BB always changes things. You never know, he may start running Maroney 50 times a game(exagerration). He did start running him a lot more in the playoffs. Anything is possible in what BB could do next year, that is what worried me. If he does something that causes Brady to throw less than 35 times a game I have a hard time picking him in round one. Now if I picked 12 and started the 2nd round I would really think about going Brady and Moss.

[fanofnobody]

I agree with you about Brady. I wouldn't even consider taking a qb that high, but he may be the exception. I don't really know what to think of the offensive philosophy next year as BB always changes things. You never know, he may start running Maroney 50 times a game(exagerration). He did start running him a lot more in the playoffs. Anything is possible in what BB could do next year, that is what worried me. If he does something that causes Brady to throw less than 35 times a game I have a hard time picking him in round one. Now if I picked 12 and started the 2nd round I would really think about going Brady and Moss.

I think with them paying Moss, its a sure sign that the intend not to mess with a winning formula. NE has been in the top 11 in passing yards every year for the past 5 years, so I think its safe to say they wont stray to much from that trend especially now that they have race horses.

[piratesownninjas]

I agree with you about Brady. I wouldn't even consider taking a qb that high, but he may be the exception. I don't really know what to think of the offensive philosophy next year as BB always changes things. You never know, he may start running Maroney 50 times a game(exagerration). He did start running him a lot more in the playoffs. Anything is possible in what BB could do next year, that is what worried me. If he does something that causes Brady to throw less than 35 times a game I have a hard time picking him in round one. Now if I picked 12 and started the 2nd round I would really think about going Brady and Moss.

Beilichek is a defensive coach. He doesn't involve himself with the offense. John McDaniels calls the shots on offense. I wouldn't expect his philosophy to change too much.

[dirtdickens]

I am willing to bet you that neither LJ or Gore scores more points than Barber next season.

 

There are a lot of people I have talked to that were counting on Turner to bust into round one this season. Yeah a lot of teams that are in need of a back are crap and wouldn't warrant spending a high pick on Turner, but lets say Seattle picked him up and Alexander was moved. Peobably wouldn't happen but anything is possible before the start of FA. He would be a 1st round pick in that case.

 

If I pick 7-10 and the backs are LJ, Gore, Portis and Parker, I am going WR right off the bat.

Edited March 6, 2008 by dirtdickens

[piratesownninjas]

I am willing to bet you that neither LJ or Gore scores more points than Barber next season.

And I will accept this bet. What about McGahee, Portis, or the others that I put in front of him? Are you at least willing to aknowledge that you may have put MB3 a wee bit too high?

Edited March 6, 2008 by piratesownninjas

[fanofnobody]

I am willing to bet you that neither LJ or Gore scores more points than Barber next season.

bet who? me? And not much of a risk on your part considering Gore hasnt reached double digits in TDs whereas Barber has had 16 & 12

[piratesownninjas]

bet who? me? And not much of a risk on your part considering Gore hasnt reached double digits in TDs whereas Barber has had 16 & 12

Yardage and receptions score fantasy points as well. And he's talking to me with the bet.

[fanofnobody]

Yardage and receptions score fantasy points as well. And he's talking to me with the bet.

Really? What kind of league are you in that allows points for yards

 

Sorry, get sarcastic with me, I return the favor. And I thought he was initially talking about TDs, my bad.

[dirtdickens]

McGahee definately, Portis is tricky, but yeah. Too much can go wrong with the both of them. What system is Clinton running in? McGahee has no line in front of him and Troy Smith is the QB next year.

[Whiskey Pimp]

Beilichek is a defensive coach. He doesn't involve himself with the offense. John McDaniels calls the shots on offense. I wouldn't expect his philosophy to change too much.

 

It's Josh actually, not John.

 

I'l ltake Brady in the first but that's because I get to keep AP as my 4th round choice. If I can get Brady and Moss in rounds 1&2 plus a RB in round 3 to go with AP in round 4 I will be well on my way to domination.

[MTSuper7]

Unless your league's scoring favors points for QBs, taking Brady in the middle of the first round is too early. Sure, he set records in 2007, but invariably that kind of success just isn't duplicated from one year to the next with QBs. I'll gladly watch someone overpay for Brady in the 1st round, as there is a decent chance that person finds their team thin and struggling through their FFL season (unless, by some chance, every one of their subsequent picks pans out well). Maybe it's just me, but I've always been able to build a contender by waiting for a 2nd tier QB and getting maximum value at RB and WR early in the draft. Heck, I won my SB this past year starting Sage Rosenfels.

 

I like Ronnie Brown in late round 1 or early round 2 if he can also get/stay healthy. I think Ryan Grant is possibly too risky in the first round with Favre leaving - Aaron Rodgers will have to earn some respect. It'll be interesting to see how the next couple of months change the landscape with free agency, the draft, etc.

 

I really hope I don't get stuck with a mid-round pick (say #6 - #9). It feels too early to draft Randy Moss at #6 or #7, but is a guy like MBIII, Gore, McGahee, Portis, LJ, etc. any better? Maybe the water won't be so muddy come August.